The Great Escape

[dickos1]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.

Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.

But campsall, the argument put to you at the time was that we would be bringing players in that would give us a chance. But you said whatever we brought in we had no chance.
There was 22 games to go
It was crazy

[Campsall rover]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

Dickos, after the first two games of this year I was one of the posters who thought we had no chance of escaping the drop.
With the players we had available at that point I think it would have been fair to think that.
However, things have changed quite dramatically and with the signings we have made plus signs of some key players being ready to play again I have changed my mind.
I now feel that there is positivity within the squad again and the win at Sunderland has instilled a strong belief within the squad that we have a fighting chance of staying up now.

Totally agree with you hound. 3 weeks ago we had a squad which quite obviously would not be good enough to avoid the drop.
Now with 8 new faces and let’s face it none of us expected 8 did we. 5 at the very most I think was the expectation.
We now have a squad that could possibly do what most of us thought was impossible a few weeks ago.
Not saying we will pull it off as it is still a very long shot but it is now possible I believe.
Yesterday will have been a massive confidence booster and if we can follow it up on Tues with another 3 points then the players themselves will start to believe they can achieve what looked impossible.

Hopefully Campsall, but it will take promotion form.

No it will take top  7/8 form imo.
8 wins and 2 draws or 7 wins and 5 draws from our last 16 games will give us 48 points. I think that will be enough.
One or more out of Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury or Cheltenham and possibly someone above them  are going to have a serious downturn in form. Well hopefully.

I think Gillingham and Crewe will go down. Little or no new recruitment in January and one of Morecambe, Rovers or one or two of the others mentioned above will join them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Since the Rotherham game we've averaged 3 points a match. Keep that up and we'll end up on 70 points.

It's silly trying to extrapolate trends from very small samples.

I used the MK dons game because after the Cambridge game that’s the point when you and many others said we had no chance of staying up. And we had no chance of getting 9/10 points from the next 8 games.

I did not say we had no chance of getting 9 points from those games.

[dickos1]

You may not have, someone did, they said it was impossible..

What you did say though billy was we were far more likely to have played 31 games and be on 16 points than we would be to be on 25 points.
You also said after the Fleetwood game that you’d snap someone’s hand off for 5 points from the next 7 games, well we’ve beaten that with a game to spare.
You also mocked me for suggesting we could average 1.5 points per game in this run of fixtures against the top sides, well so far we’re 4 games into that run and we’re averaging 1.5 points per game

[Filo]

Never mind PPG, the only target is 5th from bottom, currently 8 points, thats all we need to concentrate on

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Never mind PPG, the only target is 5th from bottom, currently 8 points, thats all we need to concentrate on

Exactly. This tit for tat nonsense and micro managing from some posters of what points we have got / might got  or might get and who said what and who said we'd get X amount of points by X game, and who is right and who is wrong and who should eat humble pie and who should run around the lakeside in their kegs before the next home game as a forfeit. It's all very, very tiresome indeed. How does this not make your head hurt.

Jeez. Some of us said that we'd be lucky to get 1 win and some said we'd do well and get more. End of. Nobody gets a f**king trophy either way!. Holy Christ.

[Silkscarf]

None of us know what the result will be of any football game that has yet to be played. We have a chance to stay up. That much we know for a fact. We can very soon see ourselves 3rd from bottom and looking at that dotted line very closely.

I was whistling The Great Escape a while ago and that will continue until we have no mathematical chance left. I also stay until the end of the game, well after many other clever bleeders have already left because their football knowledge is far superior to mine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You may not have, someone did, they said it was impossible..

What you did say though billy was we were far more likely to have played 31 games and be on 16 points than we would be to be on 25 points.
You also said after the Fleetwood game that you’d snap someone’s hand off for 5 points from the next 7 games, well we’ve beaten that with a game to spare.
You also mocked me for suggesting we could average 1.5 points per game in this run of fixtures against the top sides, well so far we’re 4 games into that run and we’re averaging 1.5 points per game

I said without some very good signings that we'd be more likely to be on 16 points than25.
If you really want to argue, make sure you know what you are arguing about.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

None of us know what the result will be of any football game that has yet to be played. We have a chance to stay up. That much we know for a fact. We can very soon see ourselves 3rd from bottom and looking at that dotted line very closely.

I was whistling The Great Escape a while ago and that will continue until we have no mathematical chance left. I also stay until the end of the game, well after many other clever bleeders have already left because their football knowledge is far superior to mine.

I sometimes stay to the end of the game. Sometimes don't. Nothing to do with superior football knowledge if i don't. More to do with the fact that all fans are free to make their own decisions when they leave games and for various reasons. None of which i personally will judge them for. Including myself. We are all fans whether we don't attend at all for whatever reasons or attend 1 game a season and leave at half time. It doesn't matter.

[Silkscarf]

Fair enough. I just remember at BV (and nowadays too) loads of folk would leave when we were losing well before the end, as if they knew the result already. They didn't. The  opposition would go 2-0 up, Fat Les (or whatever his name was) would laugh and say 'Bloody rubbish Cusack/Wignall/Bremner etc, I'm off'. He was saying 'look at my football expertise everyone, I am very very wise'. We'd sometimes grab a late equaliser, or even a winner.

I always think we might equalise or get a winner. Sometimes I'm right. We can stay up, that's a fact.

[dickos1]

You may not have, someone did, they said it was impossible..

What you did say though billy was we were far more likely to have played 31 games and be on 16 points than we would be to be on 25 points.
You also said after the Fleetwood game that you’d snap someone’s hand off for 5 points from the next 7 games, well we’ve beaten that with a game to spare.
You also mocked me for suggesting we could average 1.5 points per game in this run of fixtures against the top sides, well so far we’re 4 games into that run and we’re averaging 1.5 points per game

I said without some very good signings that we'd be more likely to be on 16 points than25.
If you really want to argue, make sure you know what you are arguing about.

Ah right
So you agree with the other two quotes

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Fair enough. I just remember at BV (and nowadays too) loads of folk would leave when we were losing well before the end, as if they knew the result already. They didn't. The  opposition would go 2-0 up, Fat Les (or whatever his name was) would laugh and say 'Bloody rubbish Cusack/Wignall/Bremner etc, I'm off'. He was saying 'look at my football expertise everyone, I am very very wise'. We'd sometimes grab a late equaliser, or even a winner.

I always think we might equalise or get a winner. Sometimes I'm right. We can stay up, that's a fact.

Yep. Can't argue with that. Apologies for being a bit abrupt with my post Silkscarf.

I think it is the gamble we all take when leaving early. I went to a game at Boothferry Park in the 90's when ii played for them on a YTS and left about 10 minutes early with Hull 3 up. It ended 3-3 so anything can happen.

Games like Sunderland at home this season where it was clearly obvious to anyone at 3 down that we would be lucky to create a corner let alone a goal are no brainers, especially for fans who live a fair way away from Doncaster and it would be beneficial to them to leave early. For example, if i go to a night game and leave after the whistle, which i generally do, then it can be midnight when i get home so if we are utterly abject and well out of it then i might leave early sometimes.

Personally i find those who leave their seats on about 35 minutes to get a half time pie even at 0-0 a bit more puzzling to work out, but hey. Their choice i guess.

I have left early on a few occasions this season including at half time at Burton which was up there with one of the worst performances i've ever seen and simply could not see us creating a meaningful attack, let alone a goal. That was probably an extreme example but i do make extreme decisions now and then which a lot of people may find eccentric. The only goal i have missed from leaving early was Rowe's free kick against Mansfield in the FA Cup as after Horton had put us into an early lead, we were dominated from front to back and created nothing. At 3-1 down it was already game over IMO.

I don't like leaving early in defeats like the Plymouth game because we put in a shift and had a go at Plymouth and i'll stay and applaud that at the final whistle as it is deserved. Getting smashed 5-0 at home to Rotherham playing like schoolboys doesn't deserve support but just my opinion.

Some fans think support through thick and thin by way of staying and applauding at the end of every game regardless is the most loyal way of supporting which is their choice. I don't. Players have to earn support through effort and application and if they fall short then i can stay and clap despite a loss. If they give up after 10 minutes then i can give up after 75 or 80 minutes.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Games are not won or lost based on statistics or form.

We have seen improvement barring the Rotherham steamrollering, without converting enough chances.

The new faces are bedding in now and we can see the difference with players raising their game. There were bags of positive signs yesterday that we were playing as a team, battling for each other and taking great enjoyment out of the performance. It's a drug and I bet they can't wait for Tuesday.

I used to get ahead of myself and look at the coming fixtures and plot towards a points total but after so many disappointments, realise it's a pointless (no pun intended) exercise.

Form doesn't matter. The opposition doesn't matter. It's all about us and the readiness and belief of the players going out there to win games.

Following our decimation from injuries, we now have a team, a balanced team and options from the bench. It's a team capable of winning games and that's all we wanted.

It's time to stick our chests out and give it everything from the stands and do our bit.

[Silkscarf]

It's not the leaving early thing I'm on about. It's just having that hope. These are the times we need it most. It makes very little sense but I always think 'if we win all our games and they lose all theirs...'. I can't help it. Generally I'm a pessimist but with Rovers it's the opposite.

[danumdon]

Each to their own,

Some have football as a thing they do once a week. Some live and die by the results,

Some can come and go and take in games as they wish. Some will leave work early or even throw a sickey to go

Some will sit there and nod approvingly when some great play takes place. Some will sing and scream their nuts off so when they get home their wife or bird does not know them.

Some will take another defeat as something that happens. Some will go home and die for a week.

Some will consider all of the above and wonder what the fu**k is he on about. Some will know EXACTLY what I'm on about.

Each to their own.

[GazLaz]

Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).

It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.

[Barmby Rover]

The one good thing about being near the bottom is that the teams there generally lose, a team that strings three or four results together can make significant progress upwards. Whether Rovers are capable of that is still debateable, but after Saturday I guess we all have a little hope.

[PDX_Rover]

I reckon we will win 9 more games.

[les@donr]

GM has bought us a new team, one that  is capable in winning games. Win Tuesday and Saturday will make a big difference to the league table and our chances of survival  We need to stand behind the team, management and the board in our quest to staying up.

[dickos1]

Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).

It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.

Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,

[BigH]

Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).

It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.

This season feels redolent of 82/83. We were generally poor throughout but, very occasionally, beat some of the highfliers in the division in a way that offered hope. We finished on just shy of 40 points and conceded nearly 100 goals I think.

The following season we bounced back big time with some great football, loads of goals, lots of wins.

[philsky]

Never mind PPG, the only target is 5th from bottom, currently 8 points, thats all we need to concentrate on

Exactly

[colincramb]

Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).

It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.

Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,

Created many chances. But still lost by an aggregate score of 6-2

[dickos1]

Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).

It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.

Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,

Created many chances. But still lost by an aggregate score of 6-2

Yes but he’s talking specifically about the XG stat.

[GazLaz]

Without wanting to piss on anyones bonfire here, our net expected goal difference per game over the last 6 games is about -0.8. To have any chance of staying up that needs to shift to average about +0.5 per game over the remainder of the season. That’s a swing of +1.3 goals per game (net).

It won’t happen no matter much we have improved. By the way, that -0.8 figure was about -1.6 when Gary took over and for the period just after. We’ve improved dramatically and we’re likely to keep improving, but it won’t be enough. 16 games is too many to for luck to carry us home and not enough for us to improve the amount we need to in time.

Come on gaz, in those 6 games we’ve played the current top 4.
I imagine you can look at any side in the division and their xg stats against those sides won’t look great.
In the other two games Against Cambridge and Plymouth we have created many chances,

We are creating far more than we were but conceding loads of chances also. That’s the issue really. We won’t tighten up enough defensively to have the necessary improvement.

[IDM]

Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.

Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.

All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and put a shift in as much as possible.

[ColinDouglasHandshake]

Exactly. All this stats business is just meaningless. For example the Sunderland game. All the stats you could possibly look at suggested a home romp, yet we won. We could win the next 5 on the spin, even though the stats say we can't. That's the beauty of football.

I do think people get far too carried away with stats.

[GazLaz]

Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.

Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.

All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.

It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking.

Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.

[Chris Black come back]

You can apply data and analytics to our situation or you could just say what we all see and arrive at the same conclusion - we don’t compete for long enough within games or in enough games for us to stay up.

The decent performances are hardly ever backed up in the next game or the game after that. A good win at MK Dons followed by 30 mins of competition against Plymouth then dropped off, followed by 90 minutes of total non-competition against Rotherham.

We need to be matching teams for at least 60 minutes plus each game to have any hope of getting something from each game. At present we are not.

It’s getting better but highly unlikely quick enough for us to save ourselves this season. It’s good to see the improvement though.

[Chris Black come back]

Taylor
Close
John
Fejiri
Anderson
Bostock

All still several weeks or months away, at a guess.

Crazy to think what our matchday squad would look like if they were back.

Hiwula to add to that list too. Any update on return dates? Don't think pre/post game interviewers have asked GMS for the last week or so. Thought Bostock & Anderson were meant to be back at the end of Jan.

After playing like we did yesterday, I think that list of injured players would all struggle to get back into the side.

I’m not sure anyone least of all McSheffrey is banking on Hiwula being in the league of those above, who could make a material difference to this team if they were back fit.