Local Elections

[Bristol Red Rover]

Labour got the wins generally expected, the Tories a taste of what's down the line in the GE. Will the Labour optimism encourage more people to vote more for something else, eg Greens? Will the dodgy international policies and overall control freakery of Labour dissuade people from Labour? It does appear that way in Bristol.

With all the seats up for election this year, it's worth noting Bristol now has 34 Green Councilors out of 70, an increase of 10 with Labour down 3 and Tories down 7. The Greens were 53 votes from getting another, and 58 from another.

Interesting to see how the Greens won all their seats in the more central area, no other party getting anything.
https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1786469850962858374

In terms of city wide votes, Labour +0%, Greens +8%, Tories -6%.
https://thebristolcable.org/category/series-local-elections-2024/

So why the swing from Labour to Greens in Bristol? The key difference locally is in the Greens planning to work more in partnership with other agencies. But I think the swing is due to the disatisfaction with Labour nationally and internationally.

In the GE, the Greens will almost certainly win the Bristol West seat from Labour.

[Branton Red]

Bristol is a very long way from the Scottish border.

[Branton Red]

Bristol is a very long way from the Scottish border.

......and even further from Germany.

[wilts rover]

One minute he is moaning about Green policies in Bristol (Clean Air Zone) next he is celebrating them winning!

Still hopefully this will mean more and better cycle lanes in Bristol.

[Bristol Red Rover]

One minute he is moaning about Green policies in Bristol (Clean Air Zone) next he is celebrating them winning!

Still hopefully this will mean more and better cycle lanes in Bristol.

All in favour of a better transport policy in Bristol including the cycling. And yes, the Clean Air Zone policy is nonsense. General progression of cleaner vehicles would make enough of a difference.

My point in the OP was about Labour failing. It's unquestionable.

[Sprotyrover]

One minute he is moaning about Green policies in Bristol (Clean Air Zone) next he is celebrating them winning!

Still hopefully this will mean more and better cycle lanes in Bristol.

All in favour of a better transport policy in Bristol including the cycling. And yes, the Clean Air Zone policy is nonsense. General progression of cleaner vehicles would make enough of a difference.

My point in the OP was about Labour failing. It's unquestionable.

Get ready for more clean air Zones, 15 minute cities (ghettos) pay per mile etc!

[ncRover]

BRR, as you’re someone to the left of Labour I’d be interested to learn what you mean by “Labour control freakery”.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The way those pulling the strings of the party, including those of Starmer, have controlled the way the party functions, chosen certain candidates over others, have excluded party members, have even kicked out many. And consequently create policies they choose. Undoubtedly, this is a top down party and not a product of its membership. This ethos permeates the party in many ways from there. Control freakery.

[albie]

Large pinch of salt required with all predictions based on local elections, but that has not stopped Sky coming up with a hung parliament prediction;
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

I have thought for some time that this was an increasing possibility.
Tory/Labour coalition anyone, a festival of austerity?

[Iberian Red]

Let's all voteTory then.
Join the other freaks

[Iberian Red]

Large pinch of salt required with all predictions based on local elections, but that has not stopped Sky coming up with a hung parliament prediction;
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

I have thought for some time that this was an increasing possibility.
Tory/Labour coalition anyone, a festi

Large pinch of salt required with all predictions based on local elections, but that has not stopped Sky coming up with a hung parliament prediction;
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

I have thought for some time that this was an increasing possibility.
Tory/Labour coalition anyone, a festival of austerity?

val of austerity?

Large pinch of salt required with all predictions based on local elections, but that has not stopped Sky coming up with a hung parliament prediction;
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

I have thought for some time that this was an increasing possibility.
Tory/Labour coalition anyone, a festival of austerity?

Really Albie?
Pinch of salt ,or bitter taste?

[Mike_F]

One minute he is moaning about Green policies in Bristol (Clean Air Zone) next he is celebrating them winning!

Still hopefully this will mean more and better cycle lanes in Bristol.

All in favour of a better transport policy in Bristol including the cycling. And yes, the Clean Air Zone policy is nonsense. General progression of cleaner vehicles would make enough of a difference.

My point in the OP was about Labour failing. It's unquestionable.

Get ready for more clean air Zones, 15 minute cities (ghettos) pay per mile etc!

I don't get the hate for "15 minute cities."

Surely having everything you need for daily life within easy reach of your front door is convenient for most people?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Large pinch of salt required with all predictions based on local elections, but that has not stopped Sky coming up with a hung parliament prediction;
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

I have thought for some time that this was an increasing possibility.
Tory/Labour coalition anyone, a festival of austerity?

"I don't believe in predictions, but hey! Here's a prediction I agree with."

£100 to any charity you care to mention if this happens.

[wilts rover]

Large pinch of salt required with all predictions based on local elections, but that has not stopped Sky coming up with a hung parliament prediction;
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

I have thought for some time that this was an increasing possibility.
Tory/Labour coalition anyone, a festival of austerity?

You have thought for some time that 66 MP's (& 22% of the vote) for constituencies in ENGLAND in the next Parliament, will not be Labour, Tory or Lib Dem. Brave man.

[albie]

BST,

I said exactly the opposite of your post.
Read it properly, without your silly prejudices.

It is improbable that there will be a hung parliament, but the balance is changing.

That said, the liklihood has increased with some migration of votes to the other parties like Galloway and Reform.
The big variable is how many "reluctant voters" choose to stay at home, and where they are distributed.

We know that local elections can give a lower turnout, and a chance for the disgruntled to make a protest vote.
How many of those revert to type is an open question.

There is no doubt that the Labour postion on Gaza, and the openly racist support of Israel from Starmer will alienate some prospective support.
This is clear in areas with a high muslim voterbase.

Wilts,

Not England, the whole UK elects at a GE.
I think that the balance has shifted, by how much no-one knows at this stage.

[SydneyRover]

''Oliver Coppard has been re-elected for a second term as mayor of South Yorkshire.

Coppard retained his job as South Yorkshire Mayor with 138,611 votes (50.9% of the vote share), with Conservative Nick Allen second with 44,945''

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

I'll repeat. I'll offer £100 to any charity of your choice if this happens.

You repeatedly decry projections (when they aren't projections) yet post an absolutely stupid and idiotic one here which is entirely based on the idea that percentage vote shares in a GE would be identical to those in the LA elections.

As for the idea there'd be a Lab/Tory coalition, give me strength.

Toddle off and support whichever fringe left party you want. Leave Labour to to do the job of, y'know, winning power which they never looked likely to do when your lot hijacked them.

[albie]

BST,

If you can't read a post in plain English and understand what is being said, best not to comment on it!

Post 8 says take any prediction with a large pinch of salt.
Nothing ambiguous about that.

You seem to think that I am saying that the Sky forecast is likely to happen, when I am saying the opposite.
The point of posting the Sky article is to show how inappropriate extrapolations are, not to support them.

I have explained why it is unlikely there will be a hung parliament at this stage, there are too many variables in play.
It is clear that the strategy of Galloway and Reform is to squeeze the main parties where the running is close.
The point is to influence the outcome where it can be affected.

We know from the Cambridge Analytica scam that microtargeting social media profiles is effective at the margin, close to the vote.
The time to take note is from 3 months to the actual ballot.

Maybe I need to use emoji's to help the hard of thinking.
The idea of betting on a particular outcome at this stage is for the birds!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

I'm afraid I can't untie your logical knots.

You say take predictions with a pinch of salt.
Then you post a prediction that would fail GCSE Polling Predictions.
Then you say that you think what the prediction says is increasingly likely to happen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, Sadiq Khan's third administration is only seconds old and already he's reducing the number of sex criminals in London.

https://x.com/danwootton/status/1786752314168025494

Bravo sir!

[MachoMadness]

Meanwhile, Sadiq Khan's third administration is only seconds old and already he's reducing the number of sex criminals in London.

https://x.com/danwootton/status/1786752314168025494

Bravo sir!

Sounds too good to be true, no way this prick gives up his plush West London lifestyle unless he's fleeing the country ahead of some impending legal matter.

Actually, on second thought, you might be right.

I see Count Binface beat the Britain First knuckle dragger as well, so there's a ray of hope for society in these elections.

[TonySoprano]

Horrific what's happened to London under Khan, no surprises that he won again.
Coming to a town near you. Britain is falling

[redwine]

I don't really give a flying for that there London but it's horrific what has happened to this country over the last 14 yes.

There fixed it for you.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Horrific what's happened to London under Khan, no surprises that he won again.
Coming to a town near you. Britain is falling

Right wing troll eats right wing troll food and shits out right wing troll shit.

Slow news day.

[MachoMadness]

Horrific what's happened to London under Khan, no surprises that he won again.
Coming to a town near you. Britain is falling

Apparently the people who actually live there like it quite a lot.

[roverstillidie91]

Just comes to show that a vote isn't a wasted vote as is always portrayed if people opt to vote for greens or independents.

Projections from the results for these elections state if this was the trend in the general election Labour wouldn't have a majority.

Which I've always predicted will be the case and think will happen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, Tory arse licker Kuenssberg still can't stop it.

Final poll yesterday suggested Khan was on 42% and that racist non-entity from the Tory party was on 32%.

This is what Kuenssberg tweeted.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1786499484676985054

With f**k all evidence other than that Tory Central Office were saying it was going to be closer than the polls said.

Actual result:

Khan 44%
Tory racist: 33%

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just comes to show that a vote isn't a wasted vote as is always portrayed if people opt to vote for greens or independents.

Projections from the results for these elections state if this was the trend in the general election Labour wouldn't have a majority.

Which I've always predicted will be the case and think will happen.

Projections from those results are f**king stupid because people have never, and will never vote in a GE like they vote in a LA election.

That projection is from someone who used to be a senior Tory adviser. Fascinating that it's being pushed in here by two people who claim to be left wing.

[Iberian Red]

Horrific what's happened to London under Khan, no surprises that he won again.
Coming to a town near you. Britain is falling

What is this horrific thing that has happened to London?
Did Tomeh Robinson inform you by any chance?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just comes to show that a vote isn't a wasted vote as is always portrayed if people opt to vote for greens or independents.

Projections from the results for these elections state if this was the trend in the general election Labour wouldn't have a majority.

Which I've always predicted will be the case and think will happen.

There you go lads.

https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1787023735246971165

You're in the same camp as a Tory minister.

Delusionally seeing what you want to happen, rather than what the data is actually telling you.