Coronavirus

[Ldr]

For me speculation in the media for a 3rd wave shows how southern centric the media is, up here in the proper north we have already had 3 distinct peaks

What people mean by "two waves" to date is the one that peaked in Apr 2020 and the one that peaked in Jan 2021.

The peak last November wasn't really a separate wave it was the start of one that we never properly got under control, leading to the disaster of December and January. Which seems to have been pretty much forgotten already.

I have access to figures, admittedly internal that show 3 distinct waves up here, as I say, the proper north

[Ldr]

BST / RD I really wish you could see what I am able to, would really interest you

[albie]

If Hancock understood economics, he would know that prevarication over the evidence from Sage is precisely the worst thing you could do for the economy.

Hancock does not understand either economics, nor the maths behind the science......neither does Bozo.

This is the big problem we have, the decision makers do not have the expertise to make intelligent choices!

[Ldr]

If Hancock understood economics, he would know that prevarication over the evidence from Sage is precisely the worst thing you could do for the economy.

Hancock does not understand either economics, nor the maths behind the science......neither does Bozo.

This is the big problem we have, the decision makers do not have the expertise to make intelligent choices!

I am of the opinion we’re lucky if Hancock can dress himself

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hancock.

Just...words!

In some ways you have to admire his ability to sit in front of a Select Committee and lie through his teeth.

Today he's said that the scientific advice in early 2020 was that there was no asymptomatic transmission of COVID and he "bitterly regrets" not pushing back on that advice. And he really...truly means that folks. So it really...truly wasn't his fault that thousands of pensioners were discharged from hospitals to care homes without being tests, so the NHS could be cleared for the surge of cases we were going to get with a managed HI strategy.

Except...
Second Sage COVID meeting 28 Jan 2020. Minutes:
"There is limited evidence of asymptomatic transmission, but early indications imply some is occurring."

Fourth Sage COVID meeting 4 Feb 2020. Minutes:
"Asymptomatic transmission cannot be ruled out and transmission from mildly symptomatic individuals is likely."

There is zero evidence in any other SAGE minutes that the scientific advice was that asymptomatic transmission could not occur. But he's just said to a Select Committee that that is what the scientific advice was.

[Nudga]

The last time the UK reported over 7,000 positive tests was February 27th. On that day 290 deaths were announced.

Yesterday and today both saw over 7,000 positive tests reported, with a total death toll of thirteen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

1) Number of deaths is a lagging indicator. Got jack shit to do with how many cases there are today because people don't die the moment they test +ve. The number of deaths today is a function of how many new cases there were three weeks back.

2) Vaccines. Who'd have thought they work.

3) Literally no-one is suggesting we are going back to the carnage of last January in terms of deaths. But if new cases carry on growing at their current rate (doubling once every 8-9 days) then we'll be into the hundreds of thousands of new cases a day by mid-July. And you don't need many of those cases to be serious for hospitals to get very full very quickly.

[Nudga]

Or parainfluenza

[albie]

Hancock was shown on Ch4 News saying that there was no shortage of PPE because of the heroics of his Dept.

I must have imagined all those nurses in bin liners then.
My bad!

Cummings is now saying on his blog that he will publish his evidence, now that Mancock has soiled himself....should be good!

[Redandwhite]

1) Number of deaths is a lagging indicator. Got jack shit to do with how many cases there are today because people don't die the moment they test +ve. The number of deaths today is a function of how many new cases there were three weeks back.

2) Vaccines. Who'd have thought they work.

3) Literally no-one is suggesting we are going back to the carnage of last January in terms of deaths. But if new cases carry on growing at their current rate (doubling once every 8-9 days) then we'll be into the hundreds of thousands of new cases a day by mid-July. And you don't need many of those cases to be serious for hospitals to get very full very quickly.

But like I said, the hospitals won't get full nearly as quickly as before, because the people now contracting covid aren't in the vulnerable category .

[BillyStubbsTears]

R&W
Correct.

But the maximum number of daily positive tests we have ever had is about 60k. As things stand today, we are on target to top that by around the end of the month.

Then by the end of July it would be four times higher. Which is why I said you only need a small fraction of them to get very ill to overwhelm the NHS.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS. Those numbers are based on the current growth. That's before you factor in the boost that you'd get from the 21 June relaxation (which is not going to happen).

[ravenrover]

Hancock was shown on Ch4 News saying that there was no shortage of PPE because of the heroics of his Dept.

I must have imagined all those nurses in bin liners then.
My bad!

Cummings is now saying on his blog that he will publish his evidence, now that Mancock has soiled himself....should be good!

Carefully chosen words "there was no NATIONAL shortage of PPE" there were numerous local cases but twisting the words preventing an outright lie

[Redandwhite]

R&W
Correct.

But the maximum number of daily positive tests we have ever had is about 60k. As things stand today, we are on target to top that by around the end of the month.

Then by the end of July it would be four times higher. Which is why I said you only need a small fraction of them to get very ill to overwhelm the NHS.

The key is what fraction I suppose . But it will be much much smaller one than before, and of those few requiring hospitalisation they will be spending much less time in hospital.

Just the final sting in the tail this . No need for another lockdown

[drfchound]

Hancock was shown on Ch4 News saying that there was no shortage of PPE because of the heroics of his Dept.

I must have imagined all those nurses in bin liners then.
My bad!

Cummings is now saying on his blog that he will publish his evidence, now that Mancock has soiled himself....should be good!

Carefully chosen words "there was no NATIONAL shortage of PPE" there were numerous local cases but twisting the words preventing an outright lie

Raven, that one word makes a whole lot of difference to what is being implied.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Read this thread.

See if you think Hancock was telling the truth on this at the Select Committee.

https://mobile.twitter.com/allthecitizens/status/1403044625384984580

[albie]

Hancock was shown on Ch4 News saying that there was no shortage of PPE because of the heroics of his Dept.

I must have imagined all those nurses in bin liners then.
My bad!

Cummings is now saying on his blog that he will publish his evidence, now that Mancock has soiled himself....should be good!

Carefully chosen words "there was no NATIONAL shortage of PPE" there were numerous local cases but twisting the words preventing an outright lie

Raven, that one word makes a whole lot of difference to what is being implied.

No Hound, it is what lawyers call a distinction without a difference.

Dept of Health is responsible for provision across the whole system. If they have PPE in London, but none in Donny, then the buck stops with Hancock.

If he tried that line in court, a decent QC would hand him his arse on a plate.
The Ch4 News piece is here;
https://www.channel4.com/news/matt-hancock-expresses-regret-and-defends-role-as-health-secretary-in-four-hour-grilling-by-mps

NHS staff have been in a rage with him, but this was by no means the most outrageous claim by Hancock.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1402875198148333570.html

I reckon Cummings will now hang him out to dry, working on behalf of Gove and Sunak.

Hancock is useful as a blame sponge for Bozo, he might need a new fall guy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And here's an example of what was really happening on the front line while Hancock claims there were no PPE shortages.

https://mobile.twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1402875198148333570

[SydneyRover]

It appears then Hancock's hands were tied .......... to his balls and although he wanted to do something about everything he couldn't and didn't and he shouldn't be blamed.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I can't get over Hancock's face while he figures out exactly how to lie about whether he knew that the companies he is giving NHS data to have strong links to Cambridge Analytica. Given that he was Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport up to 2018, and given that these links are widely known from the Cambridge Analytica scandal, it is simply inconceivable that he was unaware of them. But there you go. Liars gonna compulsively and instinctively lie.

Or perhaps he wasn't lying. In which case he is irredeemably ignorant and didn't do basic due diligence on who he was contracting with. One or the other. Take your pick.

[SydneyRover]

I'm sure I could hear him singing 'happy birthday' quietly as he tries to wash his hands of just about everything.

[Nudga]

I'll never forget his dupers delight and crocodile tears when the first jab of hope went into the arms of the first two people.


And here we have a new way of making the vaccine look great. They couldn't possibly have done this last year coukd they.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospitals-nhs-england-data-b1862804.html

[albie]

Is it to make the vaccine look great, Nudga....or is it to provide cover for the shambolic Hancock and his management of the pandemic?

Little comment so far on whether the patent restrictions should be lifted.
If we want a Covid secure world it is maybe the fastest route to that goal.

Big Pharma will always put their profits above the public health consideration.

This is satire, but quite close to the bone;
https://bywire.news/articles/exposed-big-pharma-ceo-caught-in-furious-rant-at-idea-of-selling-vaccines-to-poorer-countries-wheres-the-money-in-that

[albie]

Data showing the age profile of the Delta variant in the community;
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403293586578456577/photo/1

Bozo needs to think again about the kids.
June 21 has gone now as an option for easing restrictions, unless he has lost it completely.

[bpoolrover]

Data showing the age profile of the Delta variant in the community;
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403293586578456577/photo/1

Bozo needs to think again about the kids.
June 21 has gone now as an option for easing restrictions, unless he has lost it completely.

the kids will be the highest as there getting tested far more than anyone else, most schools certainly in Lancashire have not stopped wearing masks so is there much else you can do bar shutting schools?

[albie]

The obvious thing is to vax the kids, Blackpool.

Hopefully you can then break the chain of transmission among the youngsters, which in turn limits the extent that they pass it on to parents etc.

Hancock is more concerned with fiddling the figures to cover his tracks though;
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/06/10/matt-hancock-suppressed-covid-data-from-government-departments-says-whistleblower/

I hope that Matt "grim reaper" Hancock gets what he deserves after the public inquiry does the washing up!

[bpoolrover]

But then you could say there will be tens of thousands 18-30 year old at the pubs watching the euros will they not need vaccinating, how many of them kids are ending up very poorly or dying? I agree he should delay opening up thou

[wilts rover]

Relaxing of full restrictions to be delayed for up to 4 weeks. Cabinet meeting over the weekend to discuss final details.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/covid-cases-in-england-rising-at-fastest-rate-since-winter-wave

This has to be the right decision. Why waste what we have just gone through to risk a new variant emerging and more long covid cases.

[bpoolrover]

Relaxing of full restrictions to be delayed for up to 4 weeks. Cabinet meeting over the weekend to discuss final details.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/covid-cases-in-england-rising-at-fastest-rate-since-winter-wave

This has to be the right decision. Why waste what we have just gone through to risk a new variant emerging and more long covid cases.

if they do that well done to boris seems he has learned a little

[wilts rover]

On the front page of The Telegraph (the paper Johnson writes for)

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1403464237821972490