Ukraine

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good take Wilts.

As far as I can see there's only two ways you can figure out how the West has acted.

1) We genuinely believed that Putin was going to invade and we shite it. Which doesn't bode well for future brinksmanship.

2) It was all an act. The West wants to give Ukraine up to Putin to be rid of the problem of having to protect it. They never really believed he was going to invade but we played it up  hold a gun to Ukraine's head.

[River Don]

Well Putin did take Crimea.

The prospect of him doing something like that again and linking that region to the mother country via the Russian speaking region of Donetsk has to be given some credence don't you think?

It appears Putin doesn't know what he will try next, I think he's pushing the boundaries to see what crops up.

So far the demand Ukraine does not join NATO still seems to be his minimum he will accept.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I wonder if any of this is being reported to the general public in Russia?

[Filo]

This is the problem when leaders are ageing , what if Putin has a terminal illness or something and thinks f**k it, I’ll take everyone else with me with a nuke

[River Don]

I wonder if any of this is being reported to the general public in Russia?

I believe RT have been very busy, showing lurid images of atrocities committed against Russians living in Ukraine. I believe there has been lots of propaganda about aggressive actions of the west too.

It is one reason they believe Russia will launch some kind of action. They have been preparing their public for it.

I wonder how much control the Russian state has over the interwebs?

[River Don]

Interesting piece on the information war going on.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/16/us-uk-russia-invasion-ingelligence-public-briefings

[SydneyRover]

Well Putin did take Crimea.

The prospect of him doing something like that again and linking that region to the mother country via the Russian speaking region of Donetsk has to be given some credence don't you think?

It appears Putin doesn't know what he will try next, I think he's pushing the boundaries to see what crops up.

So far the demand Ukraine does not join NATO still seems to be his minimum he will accept.

This is the marker RD, they have form, unless 150,000 troops are really just practicing grid parking.

[River Don]

Looks like the Russians are kicking off...

Reports of tanks firing in Eastern Ukraine.

[River Don]

Looks like the Russians are kicking off...

Reports of tanks firing in Eastern Ukraine.

Or maybe not yet. An alert from the Daily Express, I should've known better.

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK, I've been very naive here. There's much more going on.

Putin is clearly still wanting to invade. Biden, far from shiting it, as I'd thought, has been cleverly and very publicly playing a strategy of calling out what Putin wants to do in order to unnerve him with the strength of American intel.

That explains why Putin claimed to have withdrawn forces from the border in response to Biden saying war was imminent, and the Russian media responding in hyperbolic terms about America being humiliated.

But it looks like the Russian troops have gone nowhere.

Biden has said the next stage will be a false flag event to justify invasion. And sure enough, the Russians are screaming about a car bombing in Donetsk. Apparently the car of a senior Russian military official in Donetsk has been blown up.

In empty car park.

In the middle of nowhere.

And this, apparently, was done by the Ukrainians.

[Dutch Uncle]

I also think Stoltenberg is doing a very good job as well BST.

The thing worrying me is tomorrow being the exact 8th anniversary of moving into Crimea, The sort of thing that would have been on Putin’s mind when he started. I think he has been surprised by the resolve and unity of NATO and US in particular. Is Biden giving Putin a way of stepping back by effectively saying ‘humiliate me for my calls and talk about my escalatory rhetoric’. Of course ‘stepping back’ would simply mean not actually invading now, but keeping the troops in position and testing the West’s longer term response and await maybe a breaking of ranks.

[Colemans Left Hook]

https://www.flightradar24.com/47.83,32.5/6

out of interest on hearing a few military planes decided to see what was happening in the skies

note how the planes keep out of Ukraine air space

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good points DU.

There's still a bit of this that feels like a war game. Both sides seeing if the other will do what we expect when we do X. Probing what the strengths and weaknesses of the other side are. Let's hope that's as far as it goes.

[River Don]

The latest intelligence seems to be that Putin has already given the go. Separatist actions in the east certainly appear to be ramping up now.

I wonder if he's waiting for the Winter Olympics to finish?

[bigbadjack]

Looks like things are starting to ramp up now

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Anyone who doubts he will follow through with this needs to give their head a shake. He will do so unless he wins something, what has he got to lose? Lives of troops? I don't think that's a part of the equation for the Russian President.

[bigbadjack]

Yep that’s my concern too this could escalate rapidly

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just reading the translation of his speech, I actually have concerns about his sanity.

[Dutch Uncle]

Utter brinksmanship all round, and very dangerous.

Even if Putin doesn't invade in the coming days the problem for NATO and the West  isn't going away any time soon. Putin might wait it out with his troops in place, and see if prolonged pressure can the produce divisions in NATO he is looking for.

Or he might just invade. It depends on which combination of importance and likelihood of achieving a goal is more attractive to him - the easily achievable military occupation of Ukraine, or the longer shot and the possible jackpot of a breakup of NATO.     

[wilts rover]

Annexing (dont give me independent sovereign states) another country's territory - thats pretty much an act of war.

Where do we go now and what are Johnson/Biden/the west going to do?

[drfchound]

Serious question wilts, if he does invade, what do you think the west should do?

[wilts rover]

Freeze every bank account in the City of London connected with a Russian citizen or any duel national who has been allowed to come into the UK on a Golden visa.

No one takes money out of Russia without Putin's consent.

Bill Browder explains this in Red Notice.

Its what will hurt Putin most, take his money away from him and his cronies - they stole it from the Russian people in the first place - and damage him in turns of wealth and prestige.

[drfchound]

Good answer wilts, and I suppose that could be extended to the USA and other European countries.
No doubt though that they would respond with other things, maybe cutting off the gas.

[wilts rover]

Good answer wilts, and I suppose that could be extended to the USA and other European countries.
No doubt though that they would respond with other things, maybe cutting off the gas.

Yes hound, the US have begun this with their Magnitsky Act - though they could go further. Other have yet to start - and Swiss need to be involved.

Undoubtably the Russians will cut off the gas - although of course that will also hurt them with loss of revenue - but you can't allow tyranny. We will have to try and make up the gas from other sources, North Sea, US liquified etc. It shows the urgent need to look for other sources tho.

[River Don]

Here we go...

Putin orders forces in for "peacekeeping" purposes.

[River Don]

I thought he was going to leave this hanging, see if he could cause some friction between NATO members but no. He's eager to get in there.

I suppose he can't keep all those troops sitting freezing in tents on the border for long.

[BillyStubbsTears]

He's really swinging punches now. Saying Ukraine has no historical right to exist. Demanding NATO withdraws from all ex-Soviet bloc countries.

Big, big move. Let's see if the West has the balls to do more than token gestures.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Thought the correspondent on sky was interesting. He said he was with the separatists on the front line and some questioned if Putin is all there.  He's certainly changed when you look at him over time.

The west will let Ukraine go though they won't see it as worth a war frankly.and he knows that.

It's worth watching RT for their take on it.  Completely the opposite of British media.  I find that aspect quite fascinating.

[Branton Red]

The prediction the invasion would begin once China's Winter Olympics ended have proven 100% accurate.

Scary and ominous. An invasion of a democratic European nation by a dictatorship run by a thug who is making veiled threats against other nation states including those in NATO.

The West need to stand firmly together on this and match action to rhetoric. Harsh, severe economic sanctions.

No backsliding from any country.

Not on having to endure higher energy prices. Not on propaganda from Russia of empty shop shelves.

Democracy in Eastern Europe is at stake here plus many, many lives if this abominable dictator is allowed to think he can escalate things further.

[SydneyRover]

The first casualty in war .............

''‘Dumb and lazy’: the flawed films of Ukrainian ‘attacks’ made by Russia’s ‘fake factory’''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/dumb-and-lazy-the-flawed-films-of-ukrainian-attacks-made-by-russias-fake-factory