Ukraine

[normal rules]

Interesting to see how these sanctions play out. Great swathes of the capital are Russian owned.

[SydneyRover]

Sanctions are all well and good but they are reactionary, if the threat of them doesn't work the next stage is a sort of siege situation.

We (the world ) trades with rogue nations, in the background hoping that they become more accepting of western ideas and accept more and more of them. It doesn't appear to work with Russia and China.

[Filo]

The Govt could start by chucking the son of a FSB agent out of the House of Lords

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Govt could start by chucking the son of a FSB agent out of the House of Lords

The one who keeps a dog on a leash called Boris?

That's a real dog on a real leash by the way, not a euphemism.

[SydneyRover]

leaders without conscience

[tyke1962]

I wouldn't take it as a given that Russian forces will be successful in Ukraine .

The Ukrainians more than match up the Russians in military numbers plus paramilitaries .

Not certain about the quality of their hardware though but none the less any nation who is invaded tends to have a massive amount of motivation in battle as opposed to invading forces .

Ask the Americans how it went in Vietnam for example .

The Russian losses could be massive .

[drfchound]

The Govt could start by chucking the son of a FSB agent out of the House of Lords

The one who keeps a dog on a leash called Boris?

That's a real dog on a real leash by the way, not a euphemism.

Why would anyone call a leash Boris.

[Filo]

To me China has been pulling some strings, it was widely reported that China didn’t want Russia to go into Ukraine until the Olympics had finished, that report has come to fruition. China knew this was coming, I expect all other Russian friendly states to fall into line behind Russia, China, North Korea, Syria etc will not condemn Russia

[River Don]

It looks like the tanks are rolling now.

I think that might be a tactical blunder. If he'd recognised those states as being independent and left it at that, the onus would have been on Ukraine to do something about it.

As it is, it's straight forward aggression from the Russians

[BillyStubbsTears]

It all comes down to what Putin wants and why he wants it.

Seems to me this is a stupendous gamble. He's going all-in on the belief that he can demonstrate the strength of his resolve in crushing a democratic neighbour. He's gambling that the West won't take action sufficiently hard to hurt either Russia as a country or his own cabal of kleptocrats.

Why he wants to do that is the real question though. Seems to me there are for possible reasons.


1) He's genuinely scared at the prospect of military invasion from a NATO encirclement. This doesn't stand up at all. There is no way on God's earth that a single NATO toe end is setting foot on nuclear-armed Russian territory.

2) He's making a show of Great Russia strength because he feels under threat at home.

Then the really scary final 2.

3) He's using this as a test of western resolve. And if he sees weakness, he'll take the final massive gamble of invading the Baltics or Poland or Romania. God help us all if that happens, which is why Western responses must be overwhelming and co-ordinated now.

4) He's genuinely insane. Listening to him last night, you can't discount that possibility. Or at least the possibility that he is playing the insane card to frighten the West into thinking he may do something TRULY insane.

Hands up from me. I am genuinely frightened about where this could lead.

[Stocksbridge Owl]

The cost to Russia of Putins actions shouldn’t be underestimated here. On the wireless last night they were talking about how the Russian economy will be affected by worldwide sanctions, and it’s truly frightening. The Russian population are in for a very, very hard time if the sanctions threatened turn into reality.

It’s also worth remembering that, militarily, they are absolutely light years behind NATO. They have large numbers of ‘men on the ground’ but their technology and hardware is largely dated compared to that which NATO possess. Any conflict with NATO would be brief and very painful & costly for the Russians. The NATO defence system is more than able to deal with any attack from Russia. This is nothing like the old Warsaw Pact v NATO face off of the 70’s and 80’s.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Any assessment of a conflict between Russia and NATO that ignores the possibility of it turning into the nightmare scenario is, if you don't mind me saying so, rather naively simplistic.

Here's the issue.

1) There must NEVER be a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO while both sides have thousands of nukes aimed at each other.

2) That means both sides have to know what the limits of acceptable behaviour are.

3) It's grimly realistic to say that Russia invading Ukraine is, in those terms "acceptable" to NATO. By which I mean that this invasion will not lead directly to a NAT-Russia war.

4) But it is this far and no further. If Russia so much as breathes over the border into the Baltics, that is a declaration of war on NATO. Putin is, I think, gambling that the West hasn't got the balls to face him down if he does threaten that. He's seeing how the Wrest responds to this aggression in order to judge his next moves It is absolutely vital that he is given a response that he cannot misinterpret.

[Filo]

Start by letting it be known that any bears that come anywhere near UK airspace will be shot down without warning

[Axholme Lion]

It all comes down to what Putin wants and why he wants it.

Seems to me this is a stupendous gamble. He's going all-in on the belief that he can demonstrate the strength of his resolve in crushing a democratic neighbour. He's gambling that the West won't take action sufficiently hard to hurt either Russia as a country or his own cabal of kleptocrats.

Why he wants to do that is the real question though. Seems to me there are for possible reasons.


1) He's genuinely scared at the prospect of military invasion from a NATO encirclement. This doesn't stand up at all. There is no way on God's earth that a single NATO toe end is setting foot on nuclear-armed Russian territory.

2) He's making a show of Great Russia strength because he feels under threat at home.

Then the really scary final 2.

3) He's using this as a test of western resolve. And if he sees weakness, he'll take the final massive gamble of invading the Baltics or Poland or Romania. God help us all if that happens, which is why Western responses must be overwhelming and co-ordinated now.

4) He's genuinely insane. Listening to him last night, you can't discount that possibility. Or at least the possibility that he is playing the insane card to frighten the West into thinking he may do something TRULY insane.

Hands up from me. I am genuinely frightened about where this could lead.

Don't worry you'll be safe in your Covid bunker.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I thought it wouldn't be long before our resident fascist waded in.

[Stocksbridge Owl]

Russia & NATO will not come into (armed) conflict over Ukraine. Full stop. However, if he invaded/attacks a NATO member it will lead to a full scale conflict that Russia have absolutely no hope of winning. Back in the day, the threat of mutual destruction was considered enough of a deterrent, but that threat has reduced significantly now (though not disappeared completely). The West’s missile defence mechanism is designed to ‘knock out’ any missiles before they get anywhere near a target and is extremely effective.  Russia simply doesn’t have anything remotely close to that standard.

[River Don]

The prospect of Russian aggression against NATO is the nightmare for both sides. If Putin is mad enough to try that, we'd have to hope there is enough sanity amongst the Russian military top brass to prevent it happening.

As for Ukraine, Putin sees it as still being a domestic issue. The next step will be when Russians come into contact with Ukrainian forces, fighting then could well signal the start of a full Russian invasion.

[Dutch Uncle]

Russia & NATO will not come into (armed) conflict over Ukraine. Full stop. However, if he invaded/attacks a NATO member it will lead to a full scale conflict that Russia have absolutely no hope of winning. Back in the day, the threat of mutual destruction was considered enough of a deterrent, but that threat has reduced significantly now (though not disappeared completely). The West’s missile defence mechanism is designed to ‘knock out’ any missiles before they get anywhere near a target and is extremely effective. Russia simply doesn’t have anything remotely close to that standard.

I wouldn't be so sure on that.

https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-says-latest-zircon-hypersonic-missile-test-successful/6331758.html

I agree with BST's assessment that Putin is continually pushing to see how far he can go, and testing the West's resolve. If we don't react strongly to this he will threaten a more dangerous next step somewhere.

[DonnyOsmond]

Let remember that 130,000 Russian troops poised to invade and Abbott and Corbyn blame the US and the UK. And there are people on here who would have elected them as the leader and foreign secretary. Thank God the British electorate saw sense

Did they? Or are they just pro Stop The War, because y'know they want to stop all wars...? They have just said the UK government have been rattling cages which has antagonised things when we should be looking for de-escalation.

[Dutch Uncle]

Start by letting it be known that any bears that come anywhere near UK airspace will be shot down without warning

Agree sentiment, but statement needs refining a little I think - we cannot do anything in international airspace. Any bear entering UK airspace will be intercepted, warned and shot down if not compliant would be more appropriate. Testing enemy air defences by coming legally close to their airspace goes on all the time. 

[River Don]

Let remember that 130,000 Russian troops poised to invade and Abbott and Corbyn blame the US and the UK. And there are people on here who would have elected them as the leader and foreign secretary. Thank God the British electorate saw sense

Pacifism is a fine thing but there are limits. Frankly Macron has gone down every avenue to find a peaceful solution and Putin has made him look a fool time and again.

Did they? Or are they just pro Stop The War, because y'know they want to stop all wars...? They have just said the UK government have been rattling cages which has antagonised things when we should be looking for de-escalation.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Russia & NATO will not come into (armed) conflict over Ukraine. Full stop. However, if he invaded/attacks a NATO member it will lead to a full scale conflict that Russia have absolutely no hope of winning. Back in the day, the threat of mutual destruction was considered enough of a deterrent, but that threat has reduced significantly now (though not disappeared completely). The West’s missile defence mechanism is designed to ‘knock out’ any missiles before they get anywhere near a target and is extremely effective.  Russia simply doesn’t have anything remotely close to that standard.

And what percentage of nuclear missiles getting through a missile defence system is considered acceptable? Even before you build into your planning the fact that  both NATO and Russian plans for war in Europe involve the widespread use of tactical battlefield nukes.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Let remember that 130,000 Russian troops poised to invade and Abbott and Corbyn blame the US and the UK. And there are people on here who would have elected them as the leader and foreign secretary. Thank God the British electorate saw sense

Did they? Or are they just pro Stop The War, because y'know they want to stop all wars...? They have just said the UK government have been rattling cages which has antagonised things when we should be looking for de-escalation.

DO.

I suggest you go and look over what StW have been saying recently, and what Corbyn himself has said.

Not a word from either of them as far as I can see, of criticism of Russia. Just calls for the West to de-escalate the tension. As if the cause of the tension isn't Russian aggression.

At some point, you're going to have to realise that the Corbyn cabal are de facto Russian agents.At the very least they are what the Soviets used to call "useful idiots". From Corbyn's 4th form history article in the Morning Star a decade ago on NATO, via Seamus Milne eulogising Putin in a conference in Sochi, and giving instructions to the Labour media team not to critcise Putin's carpet bombing of Aleppo, through Corbyn's disgraceful response to Salisbury, to this blaming of the West for Russia invading a neighbouring democracy.

[SydneyRover]

It has to be said that imports from Russia have returned to levels pre-annexation of the Crimea would have given putin confidence that whatever is done now will not last unless it turns onto a full military invasion.

[Axholme Lion]

I thought it wouldn't be long before our resident fascist waded in.

You seem to be really itching for a war don't you. It's alright as long as you're not the one doing the fighting...
Why not try looking at the situation from their point of view and come to a mutually agreeable solution? Or maybe you'd rather thousands slaughtered?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course I'm not itching for war you utter bell end. But a war has been started by a fascist dictator. One that you admire and never criticise.

And history tells you what happens if you don't smack down fascist warmongers.

[Metalmicky]

The prediction the invasion would begin once China's Winter Olympics ended have proven 100% accurate.

Scary and ominous. An invasion of a democratic European nation by a dictatorship run by a thug who is making veiled threats against other nation states including those in NATO.

The West need to stand firmly together on this and match action to rhetoric. Harsh, severe economic sanctions.

Exactly right Branton - Russia didn't want to piss on China's Olympic chips, so delayed any action. 

Also given that Russia and China are both vote carrying members of the UNSC - with power of veto - it makes any resolutions politically irrelevant

As said by Branton - the West need to stand resolute and ensure that they act as one...

[Glyn_Wigley]

I thought it wouldn't be long before our resident fascist waded in.

You seem to be really itching for a war don't you. It's alright as long as you're not the one doing the fighting...
Why not try looking at the situation from their point of view and come to a mutually agreeable solution? Or maybe you'd rather thousands slaughtered?

How about looking at the situation from the Ukranian's point of view for once.

[Axholme Lion]

I thought it wouldn't be long before our resident fascist waded in.

You seem to be really itching for a war don't you. It's alright as long as you're not the one doing the fighting...
Why not try looking at the situation from their point of view and come to a mutually agreeable solution? Or maybe you'd rather thousands slaughtered?

How about looking at the situation from the Ukranian's point of view for once.

I have and they are being unreasonable. All they need to do is drop demands to join NATO and agree to autonomy for ethnic Russian regions and the whole thing would blow over.

[Axholme Lion]

Of course I'm not itching for war you utter bell end. But a war has been started by a fascist dictator. One that you admire and never criticise.

And history tells you what happens if you don't smack down fascist warmongers.

I'll comfort myself with that when we're sat huddling around a candle to keep warm because the price of gas as gone through the roof, all due to getting involved in other people's business which doesn't concern us. It probably won't really worry a champagne socialist like yourself will it?