Ukraine

[River Don]

I don't really see going back to the status quo of a week ago as concessions.

If the Ukraine itself agrees to ceding sovereignty over the Crimea but joins NATO and possibly the EU, do you see putin agreeing to that?

And of course a complete withdrawal.

He won't accept Ukraine joining NATO. I think that's the absolute redline for Putin.

Ukraine isn't a member of NATO. A commitment to remain out of it isn't really a concession, it's keeping things as they are.

Once the war is stopped the Ukraine can stock up with weapons as a deterant.

[normal rules]

Perhaps we should allow Russia into NATO.
Then No one is at risk.
Far fetched? maybe.
Possible? Anything is possible

[SydneyRover]

I don't really see going back to the status quo of a week ago as concessions.

If the Ukraine itself agrees to ceding sovereignty over the Crimea but joins NATO and possibly the EU, do you see putin agreeing to that?

And of course a complete withdrawal.

He won't accept Ukraine joining NATO. I think that's the absolute redline for Putin.

Ukraine isn't a member of NATO. A commitment to remain out of it isn't really a concession, it's keeping things as they are.

Once the war is stopped the Ukraine can stock up with weapons as a deterant.

That's what they have been doing since the Crimea, stocking up and training, putin has been sitting in their backyard watching all this and still he went ahead and invaded.

[Metalmicky]

Perhaps we should allow Russia into NATO.
Then No one is at risk.
Far fetched? maybe.
Possible? Anything is possible

I mentioned this a few days ago...... don't know if the Russians would go for it though...

I read an interesting article recently that suggested that NATO should have invited both Russia and Ukraine to join NATO - with the proviso that Ukraine could only accept if Russia did.  After all, we hear that Putin's main concern is Ukrainian NATO membership, leading to NATO troops being stationed in the Ukraine and providing a closer launching pad for a NATO war against Russia. If Russia were a NATO member, NATO's Article 5 would compel, for example, the UK to defend Russia against any attack, including that of a fellow NATO member, including the U.S.  Therefore Russia's NATO membership would provide the formal security guarantee that it wants and seeks.

Bringing Russia in from the cold might be the barking mad, but it could have been the solution.  And what if Russia declines I hear you say.... well that would show that Putin's real focus is on conquering countries with any actual or alleged historical connection to Russia, and might show that NATO allies need to be prepared for further wars in the Baltics..... or any other NATO countries in Putin's eye sights..

[SydneyRover]

''Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has cancelled his visit to the United Nations in Geneva due to “anti-Russian sanctions” imposed by EU countries, Russia’s mission in Geneva has said.

Lavrov had been scheduled to address the UN Human Rights Council and the Conference on Disarmament in person on Tuesday''

oops

''But he has been forced to cancel his trip “due to an unprecedented ban on his flight in the airspace of a number of EU countries that have imposed anti-Russian sanctions,” the mission tweeted.

RIA news agency quoted a diplomatic source as saying the decision was because Lavrov’s plane would not be able to pass through airspace that the EU has closed to Russian airlines as part of sanctions against Moscow''

[River Don]

I think for Putin it was a case of now or never.

But he's discovering the conquering Ukraine is nowhere near as easy as he thought it would be. And the prospect of holding it, that's impossible, he's united the society against him.

It would take a vast Russian force to control it now. They can't afford to do it.

I'm hoping he is sane enough to recognise that now and might take the opportunity now to backdown.

[SydneyRover]

I think for Putin it was a case of now or never.

But he's discovering the conquering Ukraine is nowhere near as easy as he thought it would be. And the prospect of holding it, that's impossible, he's united the society against him.

It would take a vast Russian force to control it now. They can't afford to do it.

I'm hoping he is sane enough to recognise that now and might take the opportunity now to backdown.

Not sure about the last bit but hope you're right, from what I've read and watched the locals have been getting a bit uppity about why they can only earn round 300 euros a month at best and putin needed a shed load of nationalism to boost his stocks

[River Don]

I think for Putin it was a case of now or never.

But he's discovering the conquering Ukraine is nowhere near as easy as he thought it would be. And the prospect of holding it, that's impossible, he's united the society against him.

It would take a vast Russian force to control it now. They can't afford to do it.

I'm hoping he is sane enough to recognise that now and might take the opportunity now to backdown.

Not sure about the last bit but hope you're right, from what I've read and watched the locals have been getting a bit uppity about why they can only earn round 300 euros a month at best and putin needed a shed load of nationalism to boost his stocks

I'm only trying to guess what they are talking about but NATO seems to be a core issue.

TBH the Ukrainians aren't expecting any realistic offers and expect nothing from it but they have to listen.

If Putin is to back down then he needs a way to save face. My suggestions would likely be an absolute bare minimum.

[SydneyRover]

Also there is a brain drain going on in Russia as completed students as said above can't get a decent wage and when they make noises they get arrested and leave. This is having a serious effect on the economy.

[SydneyRover]

the BBC is running some interesting Q & A's while the talks are going on.

[ravenrover]

So much for targetting military targets, Russia is now shelling built up civilian areas, it had to come I suppose just adds to the list of war crimes

[River Don]

So much for targetting military targets, Russia is now shelling built up civilian areas, it had to come I suppose just adds to the list of war crimes

Classic terror tactics.

Hitler found civilian populations are prepared to endure an awful lot. It might even have a galvanising effect.

[SydneyRover]

Another big move

''''After some soul-searching, neutral Switzerland will adopt all EU sanctions against Russia.

There will be no exceptions: five oligarchs have already been banned from entering Switzerland, the bank accounts of all 336 people on the EU’s list, including Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, will be frozen with immediate effect.

Swiss banks are believed to hold billions of dollars in Russian funds.

The country's air space is closed to Russian aircraft, while Swiss airlines have cancelled their flights to Russia.

Make no mistake, this is a huge step for Switzerland, which has often agonised over what being neutral actually means.

Today Swiss President Ignazio Cassis made it clear: the attack on Ukraine was an unacceptable attack on freedom and democracy, "playing into the hands of aggression is not neutral", neither is standing by while the Geneva Conventions, which Switzerland is home to, are "trampled underfoot"''

[normal rules]

The Swiss getting involved and freezing bank accounts is huge.I wonder if the delay allowed putins cronies enough time to withdraw their wealth.

Meanwhile the IOC is promoting the banning of all Russian and Belarusian atheletes from all competitions across the globe.

Just need FIFA to wake up and smell the very strong coffee.

[drfchound]

Terrific that Switzerland has played this card.
The pressure on Russia is mounting.

[River Don]

Somehow I doubt many of the super rich would have ever expected Switzerland to make a shift in its nuetralty.

[DonnyOsmond]

Putin's now in a situation he can't possibly win. He's guaranteed restrictions on his own people for a long long time, where they'll eventually start turning on him. He might take Ukraine but they won't keep it, the population clearly don't want a Russian or Russian puppet as leader. Finland's population are now wanting to join NATO. He's unified Europe. He's pissed off Erdogan and Orban.

The initial point is the big one, no one will go into Russia to end this but the people there can be what over throws him and ends this. The same needs to happen in Belarus to.

If Ukraine come out this on the other side without specific terms that they can't join NATO then they'll want to join immediately. This is what happens when they're no in it, Russia aren't going to consider action against NATO. They've already shown they have poor equipment and poorly trained troops.

[Not Now Kato]

"Bank of China’s Singapore operation has stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies"
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-swift-commodities-idCNL4N2V30WC
 
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-impose-appropriate-sanctions-restrictions-russia-2022-02-28/
 
Isn’t that pretty much Xi telling Putin he's messed up?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Perhaps we should allow Russia into NATO.
Then No one is at risk.
Far fetched? maybe.
Possible? Anything is possible

There's the nub of the problem.

The Russian people would be far better off if Russia was a liberal democracy, integrated into the systems of European democracy and security. The EU. NATO.

They would be richer, at peace and more secure.

That's exactly why the old Soviet bloc countries have joined both.

But Russian leaders have never wanted that. The want Russia to be a proud Great Power running its own sphere of influence.

THAT is what this is all about. Putin wants Ukraine to be part of a Russian empire, not part of the West. That empire can be run and bled dry by the gangster bosses. If the people are terrorised and kept ignorant and in poverty, so be it.

Anyone who has lazily complained about the EU being anti democratic needs to wake up now and see the bigger picture. This is what real tyrranical anti democracy looks like.

[Filo]

Mad Vlad has put his Nukes on an enhanced state of alert, surely he must realise than Moscow will be obliterated if he decides to use his nukes

[mugnapper]

Fifa grow a pair and suspend Russia meaning they will not be allowed to play in their World Cup play off match and be thrown out of the competition

[River Don]

Mad Vlad has put his Nukes on an enhanced state of alert, surely he must realise than Moscow will be obliterated if he decides to use his nukes

He made a very concerning statement a while back, something like - what's the point of the world without Russia in it?

The worry is, is his vision the only Russia he considers to be a true.

[Dutch Uncle]

Perhaps we should allow Russia into NATO.
Then No one is at risk.
Far fetched? maybe.
Possible? Anything is possible

There's the nub of the problem.

The Russian people would be far better off if Russia was a liberal democracy, integrated into the systems of European democracy and security. The EU. NATO.

They would be richer, at peace and more secure.

That's exactly why the old Soviet bloc countries have joined both.

But Russian leaders have never wanted that. The want Russia to be a proud Great Power running its own sphere of influence.

THAT is what this is all about. Putin wants Ukraine to be part of a Russian empire, not part of the West. That empire can be run and bled dry by the gangster bosses. If the people are terrorised and kept ignorant and in poverty, so be it.

Anyone who has lazily complained about the EU being anti democratic needs to wake up now and see the bigger picture. This is what real tyrranical anti democracy looks like.

Absolutely right BST

The political reforms that Russia would have to make to meet NATO criteria for membership would absolutely never be acceptable to Putin

[Filo]

The Russians have used cluster bombs banned under international treaty

[BillyStubbsTears]

Interesting that the kleptocrats have started coming out calling for peace.

Deripaska, Lebedev, Friedman, all saying this has to stop.

Is it virtue signalling, or are they going (or are they even able) to put pressure on Putin.

I'll be honest, I still don't really know if Putin controls the kleptocrats, or they control him.

[albie]

The oligarchs are hedging their positions.

Putin has taken this action without consideration of their position, so in turn they have lost faith in the relationship.
In the long game, this could be the most significant lasting effect of the campaign.

[normal rules]

Based on the conversation Macron has had with mad vlad today I’d do this.
Tell him NATO and EU guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality. Stop the war as a result.
Wait till he croaks it and then move the goalposts.
Bide time, save lives.

[albie]

Patel doubles down on the humanitarian refusal;
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-fury-priti-patel-refuses-26349822

The woman is beyond shame, and prepared to disgrace the UK in front of the international community.

[BobG]

Based on the conversation Macron has had with mad glad today I’d do this.
Tell him NATO and EU guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality. Stop the war as a result.
Wait till he croaks it and then move the goalposts.
Bide time, save lives.

I like that NR. Best outcome I've seen so far. Wherecwould Crimea and the East fit in?

BobG

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Based on the conversation Macron has had with mad vlad today I’d do this.
Tell him NATO and EU guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality. Stop the war as a result.
Wait till he croaks it and then move the goalposts.
Bide time, save lives.

Except they can't without regime change in ukraine.  They aren't and never will be neutral.