Ukraine

[turnbull for england]

See post 762

See post 759

Touché

[normal rules]

Johnson getting a strip torn off him by a Ukrainian journalist .

Note Bunter's body language .

No fridges to hide here Bunter .... You got that .


https://youtu.be/QgFA5bXXOP0

Johnson is right. Direct engagement with Russian planes will create a situation that is very difficult to control. Perhaps that reporter has no concept of Mutually Assited destruction. Perhaps she has no idea that Putin has already placed close family in a nuclear hideout far far away .
She is a reporter, not a primate minister.
Level heads are very much needed over the coming days and weeks.

[drfchound]

Johnson getting a strip torn off him by a Ukrainian journalist .

Note Bunter's body language .

No fridges to hide here Bunter .... You got that .


https://youtu.be/QgFA5bXXOP0

Johnson is right. Direct engagement with Russian planes will create a situation that is very difficult to control. Perhaps that reporter has no concept of Mutually Assited destruction. Perhaps she has no idea that Putin has already placed close family in a nuclear hideout far far away .
She is a reporter, not a primate minister.
Level heads are very much needed over the coming days and weeks.

Amen to that.

[River Don]

This massive column of military vehicles...

It started out three miles long, then seventeen, then 30 or 40. It sounds formidable but my question to those with military experience.

Would you want miles and miles of military vehicles stood in a massive traffic jam in the middle of open country?

I keep trying to find news of what's happening with it but it just seems to be stood.

[wilts rover]

Johnson getting a strip torn off him by a Ukrainian journalist .

Note Bunter's body language .

No fridges to hide here Bunter .... You got that .


https://youtu.be/QgFA5bXXOP0

Johnson is right. Direct engagement with Russian planes will create a situation that is very difficult to control. Perhaps that reporter has no concept of Mutually Assited destruction. Perhaps she has no idea that Putin has already placed close family in a nuclear hideout far far away .
She is a reporter, not a primate minister.
Level heads are very much needed over the coming days and weeks.

She is well aware that Putin has put family well out of the way - she mentions that in the question. They are in the Netherlands.

[River Don]

Isn't one of Putins daughters meant to be holed up at the billionaires playground at St Georges hill in Weybridge?

[normal rules]

Johnson getting a strip torn off him by a Ukrainian journalist .

Note Bunter's body language .

No fridges to hide here Bunter .... You got that .


https://youtu.be/QgFA5bXXOP0

Johnson is right. Direct engagement with Russian planes will create a situation that is very difficult to control. Perhaps that reporter has no concept of Mutually Assited destruction. Perhaps she has no idea that Putin has already placed close family in a nuclear hideout far far away .
She is a reporter, not a primate minister.
Level heads are very much needed over the coming days and weeks.

She is well aware that Putin has put family well out of the way - she mentions that in the question. They are in the Netherlands.

I doubt it.one of his daughters was found to be living there in 2104 just after the Malaysian flight was shot down by pro Russian rebels, which enraged locals so much she sold up. As of 2015 they have been living in Moscow. this report from yesterday:

"At the weekend, President Putin's family was evacuated to a special bunker prepared in case of nuclear war. This bunker is located in the [mountainous] Altai Republic. In fact, it is not a bunker, but a whole underground city, equipped with the latest science and technology.

The location is a sprawling mountain dacha built ostensibly by Gazprom around a decade ago in the Ongudaysky district of the Altai Republic, a region of Siberia bordering Mongolia, China and Kazakhstan.

Now , this might tell you something about Putins current mindset.

[belton rover]

I have been reading a lot on here and watching/listening to the news. I am not educated enough in the ins and outs of this situation to involve myself in the heart of discussion on this topic.

But. I believe Russia to be the 2nd most powerful country on the planet. I think they have lots of dangerous allies. Putin is probably the most dangerous person in the world right now, with the power to back it up.

However, it seems he has underestimated Ukraine and effectively the rest of the world in their response, including much of his own people. Did he REALLY not expect any of this?

I’m struggling to believe that Putin/Russia could really have been so naïve. And in turn, I worry all this is part of his plan, whatever that may be.

Please, someone more learned, tell me I’m wrong.

[normal rules]

There are stories from Russian troops that they were led to believe that they would be welcomed with open arms by the majority. And that the only opposition would have been in the east where there have been overt pockets of resistance since the annexing of Crimea.
Their intelligence picture could not have been more wrong.
It does beg the question though, why utilise so many troops?

The only other plausible explanation is this is all a play to antagonise the west into retaliating. And that would justify him using the ultimate response.
If some reports are true, he has an illness that he is keeping hidden. Possibly terminal. Is he staring down the barrel of his own mortality?
Does he believe he has the answer to humanities issues?
A nihillistic  final solution?
He has a failed marriage, 5 kids to two different partners. His eldest daughter was essentially kicked out of the Netherlands. His other is single. Neither have kids. They were brought up in East Europe in the 80’s. That’s Tough times to bring up a young family.
Does he think he has nothing to lose.? Or his family? who are now understood to be protected?
If he is going down the path of no one can hurt me or my family now.?
Let’s not forget, for context, he has been quoted as saying “a world without Russia would not be worth living in.”
If he fails, or is seen to fail in Ukraine , then The Russia we know currently is finished. He would be finished. This is a macho d**khead who rides horses with his shirt off through the Siberian Tundra. He sees himself as the quintessential real rugged man. A hero. A role model to fellow male Russians . He is about to be paraded in front of the whole world as nothing more than a political Eunoch. A failure.
If so, then we should all be very, very concerned. He could set in motion something that cannot be controlled , as Johnson put earlier today.
We may already be there of course.

[River Don]

The Sun has been carrying a story today that an amphibious attack on Odessa had to be called off because troops rioted on board ship and refused to do it.

Could the Russian military have lost control of the narrative?

[River Don]

This massive column of military vehicles...

It started out three miles long, then seventeen, then 30 or 40. It sounds formidable but my question to those with military experience.

Would you want miles and miles of military vehicles stood in a massive traffic jam in the middle of open country?

I keep trying to find news of what's happening with it but it just seems to be stood.

Some more clarity tonight. It's not a continuous column, it's split into groups. The surrounding land is very boggy so they are stuck on the road. There are some broken down vehicles holding things up. It seems the Ukrainians don't have the capability to attack it from the air. They might possibly be attacking it on the ground but they don't know.

[wilts rover]

Johnson getting a strip torn off him by a Ukrainian journalist .

Note Bunter's body language .

No fridges to hide here Bunter .... You got that .


https://youtu.be/QgFA5bXXOP0

Johnson is right. Direct engagement with Russian planes will create a situation that is very difficult to control. Perhaps that reporter has no concept of Mutually Assited destruction. Perhaps she has no idea that Putin has already placed close family in a nuclear hideout far far away .
She is a reporter, not a primate minister.
Level heads are very much needed over the coming days and weeks.

She is well aware that Putin has put family well out of the way - she mentions that in the question. They are in the Netherlands.

I doubt it.one of his daughters was found to be living there in 2104 just after the Malaysian flight was shot down by pro Russian rebels, which enraged locals so much she sold up. As of 2015 they have been living in Moscow. this report from yesterday:

"At the weekend, President Putin's family was evacuated to a special bunker prepared in case of nuclear war. This bunker is located in the [mountainous] Altai Republic. In fact, it is not a bunker, but a whole underground city, equipped with the latest science and technology.

The location is a sprawling mountain dacha built ostensibly by Gazprom around a decade ago in the Ongudaysky district of the Altai Republic, a region of Siberia bordering Mongolia, China and Kazakhstan.

Now , this might tell you something about Putins current mindset.

I thik that report (if it's true as the bloke who told the story is described as a conspiracy theorist) refers to his current mistress and their children.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-moved-family-secret-26358879

The journalist is likely referring to his daughter who married the Dutch guy and their family? Or maybe the daughter he has never acknowledged?

This is the Channel 4 News interview with her tonight:

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1498766023180406796

[wilts rover]

This massive column of military vehicles...

It started out three miles long, then seventeen, then 30 or 40. It sounds formidable but my question to those with military experience.

Would you want miles and miles of military vehicles stood in a massive traffic jam in the middle of open country?

I keep trying to find news of what's happening with it but it just seems to be stood.

Some more clarity tonight. It's not a continuous column, it's split into groups. The surrounding land is very boggy so they are stuck on the road. There are some broken down vehicles holding things up. It seems the Ukrainians don't have the capability to attack it from the air. They might possibly be attacking it on the ground but they don't know.

They will have when the 70 Mig's from Poland arrive.

[SydneyRover]

There will be a massive logistics problem to solve with that option

[wilts rover]

I have been reading a lot on here and watching/listening to the news. I am not educated enough in the ins and outs of this situation to involve myself in the heart of discussion on this topic.

But. I believe Russia to be the 2nd most powerful country on the planet. I think they have lots of dangerous allies. Putin is probably the most dangerous person in the world right now, with the power to back it up.

However, it seems he has underestimated Ukraine and effectively the rest of the world in their response, including much of his own people. Did he REALLY not expect any of this?

I’m struggling to believe that Putin/Russia could really have been so naïve. And in turn, I worry all this is part of his plan, whatever that may be.

Please, someone more learned, tell me I’m wrong.

Go on then. I am as educated as yourself on this Belton - but I think you are wrong.

No way did Putin expect Russia to be cut off from the world banking system, for the rouble to crash and ATM's in Russia to be running out of money. No way did he expect Russia to be kicked out of the World Cup, St Petersburg to loose the Champions League Final and to be expelled as President of the World Judo Federation (his favourite sport) among many other humiliations.

I think he expected a quick military victory and the rest of the world to ignore it, as they have done in the past. I think he has vastly over-estimated his own capabilities and under-estimated everyone else. Especially Ukraine.

I cant say I am re-assured by any of this however. I dont see any immediate good outcomes. The bloke is mad.

[Filo]

In my opinion Mad Vlad has nothing to gain now whichever way this War turns out, no one in the world except his poodle in Belarus will consider dealing with him, while ever he is the Russian leader Russia will be isolated fro the rest of the world, the only was this ends is some one assassinates him, or the whole Russian population turn out and overthrow him, then he hangs by the neck until dead

[SydneyRover]

It's what happens when there is a disreputable leader that lies at the drop of a hat, supports cronyism and corruption, does not respect convention or international law and thinks more about what he wants for himself rather than what is good for the people.

oops nearly forgot ..... surrounds himself with sycophants

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Wow. Appears that China are talking to Russia about a ceasefire.

Might be coincidental as they try to get their citizens out but if they are seen not to be backing Putin, then he's on a slippery slope, if he isn't already.

The Russian Middle class with access to the free media and mega rich will not stand for this. Looking like the ground soldiers haven't got the stomach for it either.

You wonder if and when the attention of Russians will turn away from Kiev and head towards the Kremlin, KGB or no KGB.

[SydneyRover]

Wow. Appears that China are talking to Russia about a ceasefire.

Might be coincidental as they try to get their citizens out but if they are seen not to be backing Putin, then he's on a slippery slope, if he isn't already.

The Russian Middle class with access to the free media and mega rich will not stand for this. Looking like the ground soldiers haven't got the stomach for it either.

You wonder if and when the attention of Russians will turn away from Kiev and head towards the Kremlin, KGB or no KGB.

Another change in the last week China's new ambassador to Australia has used a more conciliatory approach when discussing relations between Oz and China which is a bit unexpected and although much of less import than what is happening in Europe, fingers crossed.

[albie]

There is a need for a humanitarian corridor to enable safe passage of displaced civilians.

This will not be allowed within the war zone by Russia, but once refugees reach a neighbouring country there are going to be massive bottlenecks. Some say up to 7 million could be displaced.

To take the pressure off countries like Poland, the UK (and others) could send in planes to collect those who wanted to come to the UK until it was safe to return home. Remove visa requirements unless you want a paper chase nightmare.

We managed to set up Nightingale Hospitals when the pressure was full on.
We could do this tomorrow....but we won't, will we?

[River Don]

A report tonight that Polish football hooligans are harassing Indian and African students fleeing Ukraine at the border.

These kids are also finding it difficult to get help and transport out of the country.

[River Don]

From the Telegraph

Russian troops are "operating in complete disarray", their morale sapped and "crying in combat", voice recordings of frontline soldiers obtained by a British intelligence company suggest.

Intercepted radio messages indicate that troops are refusing to obey central command orders, including to shell Ukrainian towns, while complaining bitterly about running out of supplies of food or fuel.

Separate video recordings show one group of Russian military walking away from the battle front and heading back across the border, having had enough.

In a text message to his mother, one soldier purportedly said: "The only thing I want right now is to kill myself."

A senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday that parts of the Russian army made up of young, poorly trained conscripts were "ill-prepared" for battle and in some cases had "deliberately punched holes" in their vehicles' fuel tanks to make sure they did not reach the front line.

The defence official declined to reveal the source of the intelligence, but indications of poor Russian morale can be heard in audio recordings of radio messaging between troops obtained by British intelligence company ShadowBreak Intl.


This may explain why the column isn't yet moving on Kyiv

[SydneyRover]

''Ukraine’s Secret Weapon Against Russia: Turkish Drones''

https://time.com/6153197/ukraine-russia-turkish-drones-bayraktar/

18min ago Guardian Live

''Ukraine is set to receive more Stinger and Javelin missiles from abroad, as well as another shipment of Turkish drones, according to Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov''

Drone attack on Convoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyVmySTUkxs

[normal rules]

The Eu arm of Russia’s biggest bank (sberbank) is to be placed into insolvency or sold.

[SydneyRover]

hopefully putin's getting the message

[River Don]

I think what we're seeing is Russia going to war with 20th century methods. Tanks, artillery, troops in armored vehicles

The Ukrainians are using computer guided hand held launchers and drones.

Bit of a broad brush but you get what I mean.

[Filo]

6000 dead Russian soldiers and he moves his family to a bunker in the mountains, he’s a f**king coward, Russian lives as well as Ukrainian lives are expendable to him, as long as him and his family are safe from harm

[Ldr]

Putin will end up being assassinated, whether by western secret services or his own people, it’s the only out now

[drfchound]

On the tv news this morning they were talking about Russian assassination squads being in Kiev trying to get to Zelensky.

[DonnyNoel]

Putin will end up being assassinated, whether by western secret services or his own people, it’s the only out now

I think internal action (maybe not as severe as topping him) may be the best way this ends. Go back to the 80's and early 90's and leaders like Vlad could completely control information and have the entire country believing he's a white knight claiming back their land. Now with the internet, global news and ease of international communication it's different. Hopefully as more and more Russians see the events through the eyes of the world and not state media then more pressure is applied and his rich mates realise his actions are threatening their bank balances.