Ukraine

[SydneyRover]

The catch is Russia would cut off a massive chunk of income to help keep this war going. It would be a big gamble.

the thing is, if putin isn't squashed this time what has all the death and destruction in the Ukraine been for over the past 7-8 years, if putin wins this one it will give him strength to further his ambitions, he hasn't been deterred so far.

russia without putin and his cronies would be an enormous win for the world but not forgetting the sacrifices in Ukraine, it then it allows the world to focus on china.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin is threatening a little economic warfare of his own now.

He's threatening to shut off Nordstream 1.

I'm sorry to say, this will probably have a more immediate and impactful effect on Western Europe than anything our sanctions can do to Russia.

I disagree RD.

It'll badly damage us socially and economically. But we will come through. And the start of Spring is the least damaging time to do this.


The sanctions on Russia will devastate the country over 3-6 months. They will experience a Great Depression on steroids.

Evidence:

The Russian currency has fallen from 13 US cents/Rouble just before the invasion to 0.75cents/Rouble today.

That's the equivalent of the pound falling from the current $1.30/pound to 7cents/Pound.

Basically, Russia cannot afford to import anything at all from the West.

Flip side is that this is the reason Russian gas and oil has gone up massively in price in dollar terms. But that really only applies to oil and gas for us. For Russia, it applies to everything, they import. Clothes, cars, phones, insurance, computers, spare parts. All 20 times more expensive than they were a fortnight ago. 50 years worth of inflation in a fortnight. No modern economy can survive that.

[River Don]

Does that mean we won't be able to afford to go out and use our own cars and have to rely on Amazon to deliver our stuff?

Much more than that. Massive inflation in the cost of goods, including food.

It's a war mate. What do you expect?

Well yes but this is an escalation that takes its effects beyond the boundaries of Ukraine.

[SydneyRover]

Remaining stocks of western goods will leap in price compounding the effect of the dodgy rouble.

[Bentley Bullet]

Does that mean we won't be able to afford to go out and use our own cars and have to rely on Amazon to deliver our stuff?

Much more than that. Massive inflation in the cost of goods, including food.

It's a war mate. What do you expect?

Well yes but this is an escalation that takes its effects beyond the boundaries of Ukraine.

Well it's either that or surrender, isn't it?

[River Don]

The catch is Russia would cut off a massive chunk of income to help keep this war going. It would be a big gamble.

the thing is, if putin isn't squashed this time what has all the death and destruction in the Ukraine been for over the past 7-8 years, if putin wins this one it will give him strength to further his ambitions, he hasn't been deterred so far.

russia without putin and his cronies would be an enormous win for the world but not forgetting the sacrifices in Ukraine, it then it allows the world to focus on china.

I wonder what China makes of all this?

Certainly seeing a united western front quickly emerge against Russia must give them pause for thought over Taiwan.

If. Big IF. If Putin falls, then there might be an incredible opportunity to bring democracy and stability to Russia.

But China might bankroll Putin and buy his hydrocarbons.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Priti Patel said explicitly yesterday that there was a system in place to assist Ukrainian refugees arriving in Calais needing assistance applying for visas.

This is it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/andylines/status/1500837210895130629

What does it take before folk wake up to how incompetent, untruthful and nasty our Govt is?

[River Don]

Does that mean we won't be able to afford to go out and use our own cars and have to rely on Amazon to deliver our stuff?

Much more than that. Massive inflation in the cost of goods, including food.

It's a war mate. What do you expect?

Well yes but this is an escalation that takes its effects beyond the boundaries of Ukraine.

Well it's either that or surrender, isn't it?

Well, abandon Ukraine.

I suppose we'll just have to face it but the news is it might start getting very tough for us too.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's a really simple answer to this.

Do what Estonia and Sweden and Germany and Malta and Portugal and France and Netherlands and Luxembourg and Italy and Austria and Czechia and Greece and Lithuania and Cyprus and Latvia and Bulgaria and Croatia and Denmark and Spain and Romania and Slovakia and Poland and Ireland and Belgium are doing.

Tell the poor bas**rds they can come here without a f**king visa. Show some basic humanity.

[Bentley Bullet]

Apparently, China is a major part of this. It seems to me that China will support whoever is winning for financial purposes.

[BillyStubbsTears]

f**k me! The Ukrainians have killed Major General Gerasimov. He's a very senior Russian military leader.

[River Don]

I'm starting to be hopeful about events on the ground. It appears the Russians are stretched, logistics are breaking down, morale is rock bottom.

Christ knows how those troops feel in that northern column. Camped out in the woods night after night in the freezing cold, waiting for supplies of food, wondering where the next ambush might be.

[SydneyRover]

fmd, patel, raab, what a bunch of incompetents

''On a day of confusion and uncertainty for Ukrainian refugees making the 1,400-mile journey to Britain, the home secretary admitted that she has not yet set up a visa application centre (VAC) near the French port of Calais, where refugees have gathered. It also emerged that the UK office in Brussels is open for only three half-days a week to process applications''

[SydneyRover]

''11:34
UK turns away nearly 300 Ukrainians at Calais
Almost 300 Ukrainians have been turned away while trying to cross to the UK from Calais, France.

The number is almost the same as the total number of Ukrainian visas issued so far by the Home Office.

Many refugees seek to cross the border from France to the UK through the port of Calais.

About 589 people have arrived there since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, according to Calais' sub-prefect, Véronique Deprez-Boudier. She said 286 had been turned away by UK authorities''

Take your time, no rush.

[tyke1962]

What the Russian people are fed through state media .

https://youtu.be/kELta9MLOzg

[normal rules]

Just looking at the Bank of England website. Inflation is currently running at 5.5%. That’s nearly three times the target of 2%. The next interest rate review is on 17 March. I cannot see anything other than another rate rise.

[River Don]

And yet NR what will an interest rate rise do when energy prices are being manipulated like this?

Just pile more pressure on. In fact a rise under these circumstances might even be inflationary.

[River Don]

The Ukrainians are saying the Russian advance has slowed significantly.

And in response the Russians are becoming more brutal.

A journalist in Russia has reported one Kremlin official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the invasion as a "clusterf***".

And it occurs to me were two weeks into it tomorrow. This was the point where the experts were saying this war starts becoming simply unaffordable for Russia

[normal rules]

And yet NR what will an interest rate rise do when energy prices are being manipulated like this?

Just pile more pressure on. In fact a rise under these circumstances might even be inflationary.

It’s an interesting point. The fuel price hike alone is like an interest rate rise in itself. Our family are giving second thoughts to any trips in the car we simply do not need to make. And I’ll be working from home even more so than usual.
We shall see what 17 March brings.

[Metalmicky]

I'm starting to be hopeful about events on the ground. It appears the Russians are stretched, logistics are breaking down, morale is rock bottom.

Christ knows how those troops feel in that northern column. Camped out in the woods night after night in the freezing cold, waiting for supplies of food, wondering where the next ambush might be.

Cold, wet and hungry is not going to make them feel up for the fight... and don't forget they were also 'on exercise' for several weeks before the invasion, so they ain't going to be happy bunnies...

[Metalmicky]

It’s an interesting point. The fuel price hike alone is like an interest rate rise in itself. Our family are giving second thoughts to any trips in the car we simply do not need to make. And I’ll be working from home even more so than usual.
We shall see what 17 March brings.

Both my missus and me have to travel to work by car and the fuel prices do hit the pocket.  Although if we were WFH the missus would have the heating on all day anyway....... so a bit of a double edge sword really.

[Filo]

f**k me! The Ukrainians have killed Major General Gerasimov. He's a very senior Russian military leader.

There are two Major General Gerasimov’s, it was the junior ranking of the two that has been killed, the senior ranking one looks like one of the two Generals with the glum faces when mad vlad announced he had put his nukes on standby

[BillyStubbsTears]

f**k me! The Ukrainians have killed Major General Gerasimov. He's a very senior Russian military leader.

There are two Major General Gerasimov’s, it was the junior ranking of the two that has been killed, the senior ranking one looks like one of the two Generals with the glum faces when mad vlad announced he had put his nukes on standby

Yep. The one who was killed ran the Crimea invasion which was seen as a textbook operation. I think the other one is a senior Kremlin apparatchik.

[SydneyRover]

It's about time putin showed up at 'the front'

[Filo]

It's about time putin showed up at 'the front'

Give over, he dare n’t sit within 25 yards of his senior generals

[SydneyRover]

What have we got to date, an invasion still extremely dangerous but off the rails, a rouble on par with rubble, a tanking russian share market, crazy inflation, limited cash reserves in foreign currency starting at 5bn+, and his oligarchs probably thinking about themselves right now.

[wilts rover]

The catch is Russia would cut off a massive chunk of income to help keep this war going. It would be a big gamble.

the thing is, if putin isn't squashed this time what has all the death and destruction in the Ukraine been for over the past 7-8 years, if putin wins this one it will give him strength to further his ambitions, he hasn't been deterred so far.

russia without putin and his cronies would be an enormous win for the world but not forgetting the sacrifices in Ukraine, it then it allows the world to focus on china.

I wonder what China makes of all this?

Certainly seeing a united western front quickly emerge against Russia must give them pause for thought over Taiwan.

If. Big IF. If Putin falls, then there might be an incredible opportunity to bring democracy and stability to Russia.

But China might bankroll Putin and buy his hydrocarbons.

That's a great question. Didn't they abstain in the UN vote the other day?

I think they will do the opposite - I dont think they will ever be fully behind Putin, beacuse of the worldwide consequences. They want to be a world economic power and be the world's powerhouse. The last thing they want is a world economic recession, but neither wouldn't want an unstable Russia on their border. I reckon for them the best thing would be for this all to be over and things to get back to 'normal' asap.

[normal rules]

What have we got to date, an invasion still extremely dangerous but off the rails, a rouble on par with rubble, a tanking russian share market, crazy inflation, limited cash reserves in foreign currency starting at 5bn+, and his oligarchs probably thinking about themselves right now.

And Thousands of needless deaths .

[normal rules]

I'm starting to be hopeful about events on the ground. It appears the Russians are stretched, logistics are breaking down, morale is rock bottom.

Christ knows how those troops feel in that northern column. Camped out in the woods night after night in the freezing cold, waiting for supplies of food, wondering where the next ambush might be.

The weather in the north east of Ukraine is about to take a turn for the worst too. Temps predicted to be -12 to -20 with wind chill in the coming days . Guns not needed then. Just a bloody great hosepipe. Nowt worse than cold and wet.

[drfchound]

What have we got to date, an invasion still extremely dangerous but off the rails, a rouble on par with rubble, a tanking russian share market, crazy inflation, limited cash reserves in foreign currency starting at 5bn+, and his oligarchs probably thinking about themselves right now.

And Thousands of needless deaths .

And rapidly rising fuel and food costs across the World.