Ukraine

[normal rules]

US now going to ban all Russian oil exports to them.

[BobG]

This is not likely to end well. Putin is being backed into a corner. We all know how his psyche will react to that

The only other possibility is a coup. But that is both unlikely and equally bloody dangerous.

BobG

[danumdon]

This is not likely to end well. Putin is being backed into a corner. We all know how his psyche will react to that

The only other possibility is a coup. But that is both unlikely and equally bloody dangerous.

BobG

I'm hoping that the US have inside intelligence that this course of action may lead to an internal overthrow of this dangerous individual.

This all seems very out of character for this devious despot, when that happens then anything can develop that the west may well rue their handling of this situation stretching right back to 2008.

[Dutch Uncle]

Interesting perspective from the 98 year old Henry Kissinger

[belton rover]

This is not likely to end well. Putin is being backed into a corner. We all know how his psyche will react to that

The only other possibility is a coup. But that is both unlikely and equally bloody dangerous.

BobG

Bob, are you saying the only two possibilities are a coup or Putin dropping nuclear bombs?

[BobG]

I'm sure you are as well informed as I Belton.

BobG

[belton rover]

I'm sure you are as well informed as I Belton.

BobG

It was a perfectly reasonable question, Bob.
What’s the point in you posting anything at all with such an attitude to responses?
I’ll just have to assume you do mean those two things.

[Dutch Uncle]

This is not likely to end well. Putin is being backed into a corner. We all know how his psyche will react to that

The only other possibility is a coup. But that is both unlikely and equally bloody dangerous.

BobG

Bob, are you saying the only two possibilities are a coup or Putin dropping nuclear bombs?

Have a look at the Kissinger article I attached which suggests another possibility

[River Don]

Well Zelensky channelled Churchill and Shakespeare but he's not going to get his no fly zone.

And realistically I don't think we can even give him jet fighters because I don't think the Poles want to put their country in the direct firing line.

I think the push should be to get more of those drones that the Turks seem very willing to supply.

[belton rover]

This is not likely to end well. Putin is being backed into a corner. We all know how his psyche will react to that

The only other possibility is a coup. But that is both unlikely and equally bloody dangerous.

BobG

Bob, are you saying the only two possibilities are a coup or Putin dropping nuclear bombs?

Have a look at the Kissinger article I attached which suggests another possibility

Thanks, Dutch, that is an interesting read. An ‘everybody’s happy’ approach. This line stood out:

‘Leaders of all sides should return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing.’

I’m not sure Putin’s got that in him, though.

[BobG]

Yes Belton. When one looks into the future there are always, always an infinite number of possibilities. It goes with the territory. I can think of a dozen more right now. That's when personal judgement, knowledge and experience  enters the discussion.

Cheers

BobG

[BobG]

Dutch. Thank you. I didn't even know he is still alive - although I often think of him...

Despite Dr K's suggestions, his final couple of lines suggest he is not confident. How could he be given the strident tenor of the major players around the world? The only one that is keeping its powder dry is China. This was a very telling comment:

"The demonisation of Vladimir Putin is not a policy. It is an alibi for the absence of one."

In that light, how can we believe even Western leaders know where they are going? That they have a set of rational beliefs and  options? This comment more suggests chaos theory is in play - on both sides.

BobG

PS Belton. Spot on with your last post!

[belton rover]

Yes Belton. When one looks into the future there are always, always an infinite number of possibilities. It goes with the territory. I can think of a dozen more right now. That's when personal judgement, knowledge and experience  enters the discussion.

Cheers

BobG

So you do think there are other alternatives?
Your cryptic comments are difficult to work out.
It seems I’m not as well informed as you after all, which was why I was hoping for a clear answer to a simple question.

[BobG]

Sorry Belton. My PS above was just too late I think. Like everybody else on here, with one possible exception perhaps, my knowledge is that of a reasonably informed outsider. It is, therefore, incomplete. I have given what I believed. If you wish to challenge that  of course you can! But me expanding on a point I made to my entire satisfaction is hubris.

BobG

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin is threatening a little economic warfare of his own now.

He's threatening to shut off Nordstream 1.

I'm sorry to say, this will probably have a more immediate and impactful effect on Western Europe than anything our sanctions can do to Russia.

I disagree RD.

It'll badly damage us socially and economically. But we will come through. And the start of Spring is the least damaging time to do this.


The sanctions on Russia will devastate the country over 3-6 months. They will experience a Great Depression on steroids.

Evidence:

The Russian currency has fallen from 13 US cents/Rouble just before the invasion to 0.75cents/Rouble today.

That's the equivalent of the pound falling from the current $1.30/pound to 7cents/Pound.

Basically, Russia cannot afford to import anything at all from the West.

Flip side is that this is the reason Russian gas and oil has gone up massively in price in dollar terms. But that really only applies to oil and gas for us. For Russia, it applies to everything, they import. Clothes, cars, phones, insurance, computers, spare parts. All 20 times more expensive than they were a fortnight ago. 50 years worth of inflation in a fortnight. No modern economy can survive that.

D'oh. Late night posting. The pre-invasion rate was 1.3c/Rouble, not 13.

Still, it means the Rouble has halved in value. Should have realised a collapse to 1/17th of its value wasn't realistic.

[belton rover]

Thanks Bob.
I wasn’t challenging you, Bob, merely asking you to clarify what you meant. Of course, you weren’t obliged to expand, bu doing so wouldn’t have been hubristic, just courteous.

[wilts rover]

Well Zelensky channelled Churchill and Shakespeare but he's not going to get his no fly zone.

And realistically I don't think we can even give him jet fighters because I don't think the Poles want to put their country in the direct firing line.

I think the push should be to get more of those drones that the Turks seem very willing to supply.

You may wish to re-think that RD given the news just announced - Poland to give all its MIG-29's, free of charge, to Ukraine and encourages all other NATO/EU countries with MIG's to do the same. US to backfill as required (presumably with US pilots initally until Polish are trained up.

[River Don]

Well Zelensky channelled Churchill and Shakespeare but he's not going to get his no fly zone.

And realistically I don't think we can even give him jet fighters because I don't think the Poles want to put their country in the direct firing line.

I think the push should be to get more of those drones that the Turks seem very willing to supply.

You may wish to re-think that RD given the news just announced - Poland to give all its MIG-29's, free of charge, to Ukraine and encourages all other NATO/EU countries with MIG's to do the same. US to backfill as required (presumably with US pilots initally until Polish are trained up.

Yes, just seen this. I'm a bit surprised as the Poles were worried that Putin could see it as an act of war.

It looks like the Americans will supply the Poles with replacement aircraft. The Poles already fly F16s as well as MIGs, perhaps their pilots are already sufficiently familiar with American planes.

[normal rules]

Can we give the Ukrainians a load of our reaper drones.
They are already using Turkish ones.

[BobG]

OK Belton. I guess my years in full on aggressive commercial exploitation have made me both too cynical and too aggressive. My old Mum always tells me so anyway.

The knub, for me, of this conundrum, is that Putin has no safe way out - except being seem domestically to be 'victorious'. Anything other than that exposes him fearfully. Especially now the West is going after his allies and his economy. Without victory, to me, he looks to be walking a plank with bugger all safety net. Now, add to that what we know of his character, the rat incident in his childhood, his often repeated statement that a world without Russia in it is not a world worth having, and it forces you to look at the most severe of endgames.

That's why I think this gets scarier every single day

We are backing him into a corner he can't escape from. If he runs true to form, sooner or later he will come out fighting

This needs originality, creativity and a lack of preconceptions. We are watching the exact opposite unfold. It is even more frightening than 1962.

Oh for a latter-day Kissinger...

BobG

[SydneyRover]

This is not likely to end well. Putin is being backed into a corner. We all know how his psyche will react to that

The only other possibility is a coup. But that is both unlikely and equally bloody dangerous.

BobG

Bob, are you saying the only two possibilities are a coup or Putin dropping nuclear bombs?

Have a look at the Kissinger article I attached which suggests another possibility

Looks like it was written just after russia annexed Crimea Dutch, I gather putin doesn't read the Washington Post nor does he accept Ukraine sovereignty and self determination.

correction: I got the dates wrong, the article said Ukraine had 'only had independence for 13 years' which puts it before russia took possession of the Crimea

[Filo]

Well Zelensky channelled Churchill and Shakespeare but he's not going to get his no fly zone.

And realistically I don't think we can even give him jet fighters because I don't think the Poles want to put their country in the direct firing line.

I think the push should be to get more of those drones that the Turks seem very willing to supply.

You may wish to re-think that RD given the news just announced - Poland to give all its MIG-29's, free of charge, to Ukraine and encourages all other NATO/EU countries with MIG's to do the same. US to backfill as required (presumably with US pilots initally until Polish are trained up.

Yes, just seen this. I'm a bit surprised as the Poles were worried that Putin could see it as an act of war.

It looks like the Americans will supply the Poles with replacement aircraft. The Poles already fly F16s as well as MIGs, perhaps their pilots are already sufficiently familiar with American planes.

Not a bad exchange that, giving up Mig 29’s for a far superior F-16

[BobG]

Still my fave plane though Filo. I got to watch the Russian pilots skid them all over the sky, tail slides included, about half a mile from my house for over 10 years. Fuel thirsty, noisy, polluting, not much electronics, but what a plane! I love 'em!

In fact, thinking about it the Ukrainians used to send 'em over too.

BobG

[idler]

Well Zelensky channelled Churchill and Shakespeare but he's not going to get his no fly zone.

And realistically I don't think we can even give him jet fighters because I don't think the Poles want to put their country in the direct firing line.

I think the push should be to get more of those drones that the Turks seem very willing to supply.

You may wish to re-think that RD given the news just announced - Poland to give all its MIG-29's, free of charge, to Ukraine and encourages all other NATO/EU countries with MIG's to do the same. US to backfill as required (presumably with US pilots initally until Polish are trained up.

Yes, just seen this. I'm a bit surprised as the Poles were worried that Putin could see it as an act of war.

It looks like the Americans will supply the Poles with replacement aircraft. The Poles already fly F16s as well as MIGs, perhaps their pilots are already sufficiently familiar with American planes.

Where will they fly from?
There can't be any runways for them to use in Ukraine that can't be targeted by the Russians before they are operational.

[SydneyRover]

afaik the Ukraine air force is still operational idler.

[River Don]

Here's some official Assesment

“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the west does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose,” the US director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, told the House intelligence committee.

So basically he's demanding we show him respect. Like a proper gangster.

[idler]

I wondered because I've not seem their Air Force  mentioned on tv.

[BobG]

I've  just re-read Kissingers article that Dutch put forward. There's another seminal sentence in there...

"If some solution (based on his ideas) is not achieved the drift towards confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough"

He spoke truth didn't he? And the West is as culpable as the East in not pushing for a rational solution. It's as if they have no idea of who they are dealing with....Let's  just bully him into submission. Is that the best we can do??  This guy is very unlikely to submit. We've had over 20 years watching him. We've spent billions and billions analysing him. And bullying is the best we can come up with??

f**k me we all deserve to fry

BobG

PS Just seen River Dons post 1195 quoting the official US security/intelligence view that this is a war Putin himself believes he cannot afford to lose.

Just where does that nugget figure in our official, and unofficial, policies towards Russia right now???

If he thinks he can't afford to lose, what the hell do they think he is going to do???

BobG

[River Don]

Just reading about it in the Guardian, it's not even clear how they can get these planes into Ukraine. The Americans don't seem particularly convinced this is the best equipment to supply right now at all.

[drfchound]

So perhaps the Ukraine AF isn’t particularly active right now.