Ukraine

[BobG]

Yes. That makes sense to me RD. And that is the gist of my ever rising paranoia.  Not a single western politician, publicly at least, is suggesting any way out of this that does not involve cornering Putin. If he has no face saving way out, every single one of us has an insecure future.

 The longer this goes on, the more human, capital and prestige investment Putin makes, the less he can afford to be seen to back down. If he did so, even the content of the TV stations will be used to condemn him. If he is screwed, we can be too very easily. We know his character. We know his public statements.

We need intelligence, foresight and imagination right NOW. So who we got in the West with those attributes, and, sufficient influence to carry the debate...?

BobG

[drfchound]

Bob, that last sentence of yours may well close this thread.

[normal rules]

I still think a deal can be brokered.
But there has to be a cost. A compromise.
Give up part of eastern Ukraine and the ports in the south, to Russia. It will be seen as a victory to Putin, while he is alive.
Revisit it when he is dead. Which may not be long.
With a change in leader will come a change in attitude.
One more sympathetic to Ukrainian sovereignty hopefully.
 Its not without risk or more short term pain and loss.
But it’s got to be better than the ultimate dismal possible end game.

I just cannot imagine a fully occupied Ukraine being stable enough to rule. It’s too big. Putin would have to spread his troops and police far too wide. Martial law would be the order of the day to keep any sort of law and order. It would be chaos. Constant conflict. Constant loss of life. Constant instability.
Like Northern Ireland during the troubles, x 1000
Like Vietnam was for the Yanks.
Like Afghanistan on steroids.

And how much longer will Putin stand for Western countries supplying arms ?

[danumdon]

With regards to the “overwhelming response” from the leaders of the west this situation will become very problematic, we have no one of any gravitas to deal with this situation so they stumble on as if they are all hoping it will go away if they bury their collective heads in the sand.

If we think back to the “breached red lines “ from Obama’s reign this nut job had been enabled to act with total impunity to the point where we now find ourselves in a situation where any “manufactured” outage could result in the recertification of Europe as a new wilderness.

Nobody in their right mind would wish to have Trump in control, would this situation have occurred during his tenure? and how would he now be dealing with this?

[River Don]

I actually don't think there is a settlement Ukraine can come to now that Putler would find acceptable. He's all in and needs a victory.

I think what we need to see happen is for the Ukrainians to force the Russian military out themselves. However long and hard that road is. Then this remains a domestic fight and does not draw in the wider world. He can turn to suppressing the Russian population, which he's already started doing and setting up a new cold war with the west. He will be utterly reliant on China supporting his pariah state, which they will probably do in return for his hydrocarbons.

That leaves Europe relatively safe but with an energy crisis.

[drfchound]

The need for strict vetting before allowing Ukrainians to come here needs to be changed.
I can understand the government not wanting undesirables coming here unchecked but I feel sure that there won’t be many young mothers, little children or elderly and infirm terrorists among the refugees.
Common sense should prevail.
If there is a need to check a few individuals then surely that could still be done when they get here, maybe put the “suspects” into a detention centre of some kind and fast track an investigation.
These people need help now, not in the next few weeks and months.

[tyke1962]

The potential outcomes circle round in my head constantly .

I don't sleep too well either these days .

Inside Russia only those close to Putin know the real truth and as far as I know they are as nuts as he is .

The West need to start winning the information war inside Russia and reach its people .

Massive Russian casualties , NATO aggression .

Sanctions cripling the Russian economy , western aggression .

Putin has full control over information inside Russia and those who do know the truth are swiftly arrested and put in prison .

This information war inside Russia is something the West are going to have to crack .

Otherwise all possibilities remain .

[normal rules]

I actually don't think there is a settlement Ukraine can come to now that Putler would find acceptable. He's all in and needs a victory.

I think what we need to see happen is for the Ukrainians to force the Russian military out themselves. However long and hard that road is. Then this remains a domestic fight and does not draw in the wider world. He can turn to suppressing the Russian population, which he's already started doing and setting up a new cold war with the west. He will be utterly reliant on China supporting his pariah state, which they will probably do in return for his hydrocarbons.

That leaves Europe relatively safe but with an energy crisis.

If only it were that simple RD. Losing in any way shape or form, short or long term is not part of Putins vocabulary. Period.
If he continues to lose the conventional war, he will go unconventional. There is already talk of Intel coming out of the Kremlin of biological, chemical or even dirty bombs being used. A False flag event is fast approaching I think. Bear in mind Russia  has accused Ukraine of having biological weapons of its own that Putin and co claim are funded by the US govt. A perfect excuse for Russia to unleash some of theirs. Then they just declare it was the Ukrainians that used them first. They did it is Syria. They will do it in Ukraine.
Win at all costs .

[normal rules]

Got me thinking. Is this whole saga Putins brexit?
Ruxit?

[River Don]

... To confirm Putin is all in.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has rejected every off-ramp offered by the US to de-escalate and has, instead, ramped up Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, reported Reuters.

Really it is unbelievable how the whole world is being held to ransom by this one man.

[BobG]

This reinforces NR's point in 1237 above.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60683248

BobG

[BobG]

Time to re-vist The Day of the Jackal'.... But with a better ending. Lol. That would be something that, I think,  has never been attempted in the last 300 years.

BobG

[normal rules]

... To confirm Putin is all in.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has rejected every off-ramp offered by the US to de-escalate and has, instead, ramped up Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, reported Reuters.

Really it is unbelievable how the whole world is being held to ransom by this one man.

The threat of the big red button.
Thing is, would he do it?
Would he cancel the future of everything he knows? His children? His partners? His family and friends? The planet as we know it. WW3, then decades of fallout, then decades of nuclear winter. Utter Armageddon.
The unlucky survive.
I’m fairly confident the combined conventional forces of Western Europe and the US would overwhelm Russia. Over time.  Problem is, nuclear weapons are tucked away. Remote. Some underwater of course. We could not overpower Russia and eliminate that threat at the same time. Unless there is some secret plan to disable the comms network they would use to launch. I’m not optimistic regarding this.
While ever that risk is there, we must tread carefully.
Nukes are supposed to be a deterrent.
One side don’t use mutually so the other doesn’t.
Putin would shat himself if an all out conventional war broke out.
Russia as a nation, its people and infrastructure would be flattened.
It’s at that point the buttons would be pressed.

[normal rules]

... To confirm Putin is all in.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has rejected every off-ramp offered by the US to de-escalate and has, instead, ramped up Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, reported Reuters.

Really it is unbelievable how the whole world is being held to ransom by this one man.

Putin is all in. You are right.  He has a straight flush. He is supremely confident. He had the same hand over Crimea. The West failed to call him though and folded.
However. The will of the Ukrainians and their leader, with the backing of the west and combined global sanctions have dealt his opposition the royal flush.
He just doesn’t know it yet, but he will. And he will stare loss in the face.
At the precipice, about to lose everything. Including the one thing he holds dear. His ego.

[normal rules]

All this talk reminds me of that classic 80s film war games.
Was the computer called the WOPR?

There are some very simple but terrifying concepts within nuclear war strategy.

First strike.
Second strike.
Fail deadly.
Launch on Warning.
Letters of last resort ( listeners of radio 4 take note. This is pretty sobering stuff. Just reading what this entails sends a shiver down your spine)
The Dead Hand ( Russian)
Decapitation strike.
And finally Mutually Assured Destruction MAD.


When one is launched, every single deployable missile around the world would take flight.
Scary scary stuff.
Sleepless nights.

[BobG]

If Putin's ego is shredded, that's the time to duck. Wonder if the Chinese could hold him back? They'd suffer almost as badly if they couldn't

BobG

[normal rules]

If Putin's ego is shredded, that's the time to duck. Wonder if the Chinese could hold him back? They'd suffer almost as badly if they couldn't

BobG

A couple of dozen nukes across the norther hemisphere f**ks the whole planet. Forever. Every single living thing suffers. And then ceases to exist.
If the blasts don’t kill you the fallout will.
And if the fallout doesn’t kill you, the nuclear winters will (-50C)

[River Don]

Russia alone has nearly 6,000 warheads.

If that balloon goes up, that's it. Sayonara.

Nothing remains.

[albie]

China is crucial now.

Putin has burned his economic bridge to the west, and the only way he can rebuild the Russian economy is by facing towards China and the developing economies outside the western sphere of influence.

China has a continuing interest in trade with the west.
It might not sit too well with them to be tarred with the Putin brush.

On the refugee issue, I never thought I would hear this;
https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1501476623958302722

Beyond shameful from Cooper.

[wilts rover]

This one of your guys NR?

https://twitter.com/mi6rogue/status/1501657038476169228

[drfchound]

China is crucial now.

Putin has burned his economic bridge to the west, and the only way he can rebuild the Russian economy is by facing towards China and the developing economies outside the western sphere of influence.

China has a continuing interest in trade with the west.
It might not sit too well with them to be tarred with the Putin brush.

On the refugee issue, I never thought I would hear this;
https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1501476623958302722

Beyond shameful from Cooper.

On the refugee situation, I wonder whether anyone will be outraged and tell us that Labour don’t represent them.
FWIIW, I am appalled that the government and the opposition can’t help the Ukranians to come over here.

[ravenrover]

It is only a special exercise, allow the 2 Russian backed areas to be controlled by Russia. He has achieved his objective of recognising and supporting these 2 regions. He withdraws gracefully, the vast majority of Russians would know no difference it is a glorious victory for Russia would be the message back in Russia he has driven the evil fascist Nazi enemy out of the 2 regions and given the Ukrainians a lesson don't mess with Russia special exercise complete
It's only the rest of the world that would know the truth.

[normal rules]

This one of your guys NR?

https://twitter.com/mi6rogue/status/1501657038476169228

Jesus. No protective kit. Them EOD guys got balls.
Got a few stories from explosives ranges about pe4 and detonators not going off. Or blinds as they are called.

[belton rover]

I’ll be honest. I have never been so scared about the immediate future since the early 80s, when I thought a ‘Threads’ scenario was inevitable.
The difference being then I was about twelve and very naïve. Now I’m 52, not quite so naïve, but equally frightened about what might happen soon.
God help us.

[normal rules]

Russia alone has nearly 6,000 warheads.

If that balloon goes up, that's it. Sayonara.

Nothing remains.

Only about 1400 are operationally deployable.
Can’t believe I’ve just used the word only. 14 would mean catastrophe on a biblical scale, let alone 1400.

[normal rules]

I’ll be honest. I have never been so scared about the immediate future since the early 80s, when I thought a ‘Threads’ scenario was inevitable.
The difference being then I was about twelve and very naïve. Now I’m 52, not quite so naïve, but equally frightened about what might happen soon.
God help us.

BR, you and I are the same age.
I’ve seen plenty of harrowing stuff.
I’m not one to be un-nerved by much. I don’t flap and have prided myself over the years at being able to remain calm, in situations when most around me are losing it.
But I am genuinely uneasy about this whole situation.

[albie]

Hound,

I have made clear that Labour do not speak for me on this.
What Cooper does not seem to understand when she splits hairs about "emergency visas" is that many fleeing a war zone do not have the documentation to complete the visa process, even if that process were reasonable.

As it is not reasonable, with people being moved from pillar to post to meet absurd criteria, then call for it to be removed in the circumstances.

No visa requirement, 1 year stay in which to catch up with the bureaucracy once people are safe.

[drfchound]

Hound,

I have made clear that Labour do not speak for me on this.
What Cooper does not seem to understand when she splits hairs about "emergency visas" is that many fleeing a war zone do not have the documentation to complete the visa process, even if that process were reasonable.

As it is not reasonable, with people being moved from pillar to post to meet absurd criteria, then call for it to be removed in the circumstances.

No visa requirement, 1 year stay in which to catch up with the bureaucracy once people are safe.

Albie, I am aware of your position on the refugee situation and I respect most of your posts as they are very fair.
There are others on the forum though that are very quiet about the Labour stance on this despite posting vehemently against the same government stance, which the opposition are backing.
It is noticeable how quiet those same people are now that Labour have announced their position on this.
Double standards maybe.

[SydneyRover]

Hound,

I have made clear that Labour do not speak for me on this.
What Cooper does not seem to understand when she splits hairs about "emergency visas" is that many fleeing a war zone do not have the documentation to complete the visa process, even if that process were reasonable.

As it is not reasonable, with people being moved from pillar to post to meet absurd criteria, then call for it to be removed in the circumstances.


No visa requirement, 1 year stay in which to catch up with the bureaucracy once people are safe.

Albie, I am aware of your position on the refugee situation and I respect most of your posts as they are very fair.
There are others on the forum though that are very quiet about the Labour stance on this despite posting vehemently against the same government stance, which the opposition are backing.
It is noticeable how quiet those same people are now that Labour have announced their position on this.
Double standards maybe.

A two bob watch is correct twice a day hound

[drfchound]

Hound,

I have made clear that Labour do not speak for me on this.
What Cooper does not seem to understand when she splits hairs about "emergency visas" is that many fleeing a war zone do not have the documentation to complete the visa process, even if that process were reasonable.

As it is not reasonable, with people being moved from pillar to post to meet absurd criteria, then call for it to be removed in the circumstances.


No visa requirement, 1 year stay in which to catch up with the bureaucracy once people are safe.

Albie, I am aware of your position on the refugee situation and I respect most of your posts as they are very fair.
There are others on the forum though that are very quiet about the Labour stance on this despite posting vehemently against the same government stance, which the opposition are backing.
It is noticeable how quiet those same people are now that Labour have announced their position on this.
Double standards maybe.

A two bob watch is correct twice a day hound

I see you have nothing to say on this matter so don’t bother posting your usual crap to sway the conversation.