Ukraine

[SydneyRover]

noone likes trolls but they still persist

Help me out Syd, who is this “noone” that you keep mentioning?
Genuine question.

Not sure why you'd need my help hound just look in the mirror

Weyhey, thanks for being so predictable.
You have just won me a fiver.

Seriously though, why do you write “noone”.

apologies hound, troll and pedant

[drfchound]

noone likes trolls but they still persist

Help me out Syd, who is this “noone” that you keep mentioning?
Genuine question.

Not sure why you'd need my help hound just look in the mirror

Weyhey, thanks for being so predictable.
You have just won me a fiver.

Seriously though, why do you write “noone”.

apologies hound, troll and pedant

That’s good Syd, well done.
Just keep the politics out of this thread, there’s  a good lad.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Looks like China has decided to cut Putin adrift. Massive, massive news if this is a real policy decision.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1504562237641482252

[River Don]

That's very encouraging news. Really China can't afford to disrupt the global economy to support a nation with an economy the size of Italy.

I was disappointed to read the Indians are agreeing to exchange roubles for their own currency. They can't resist the prospect of cheap oil.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm guessing Putin promised Xi it'd take a week to beat Ukraine. Now Xi is having to unhitch himself from a lame duck liability. Albeit one with 7000 nukes...

[SydneyRover]

Looks like China has decided to cut Putin adrift. Massive, massive news if this is a real policy decision.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1504562237641482252

The real test will be whether this gets reported in and on China's main media, Xi will not like Biden or anyone else for that matter dictating to China where it should stand on this. I do think that the strength and unity shown by the west will have come as a huge shock to China and I think it will carefully re-evaluate any decisions it made before the winter olympics, but this is all supposition on my part atm.

[glosterred]

RT has now lost its license to broadcast in this country, there will be some old and ex MPs looking for a new gig now the gravy train has been shut down

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60791734

[Branton Red]

President Zelensky highly critical of Germany in speech to Reichstag: -

"We told you Nord Stream was a weapon and a preparation for a great war. We heard in response it was a question of business."

"When we asked for preventative sanctions......We saw delays. We felt resistance...you wanted to continue the economy."

"Every year politicians repeat the words: never again. And now we see these words are worth nothing."

"We are trying to defend our country without your support."

"Why is a country that is across the ocean [the USA] helping us more now?"

"Chancellor Schulz give Germany the leadership that you deserve which will make future generations proud." i.e. implying the opposite has been the case previously.

Take the time to listen to this speech. A great speech by a great man. And a damning indictment of the geopolitical priorities of the biggest economy in Europe.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT-FdDgNaC4

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HuiKhRK3mU

Compare and contrast the speech to the Reichstag above to the equally well constructed, but otherwise entirely different speech made by President Zelensky to the UK Parliament www.youtube.com/watch?v=GavaV2cQEjw&t=460s

Where he criticises Germany; he praises the UK fulsomely.

Where he admonishes Germany's political leadership; he personally thanks the UK Prime Minister

Where he bemoans the lack of support from Germany; he says he is thankful of the support of the UK (whilst of course urging us to go further)

So many posts on this thread are ultra critical of the help provided by the UK to Ukraine often comparing it unfavourably to that provided by the EU/Germany.

The recipient of this support makes crystal clear in these opposing speeches that he takes the polar opposite view to many on here.

Think again.

Or do any of the fervent Europhiles on here wish to contradict the brilliant President Zelensky?

[SydneyRover]

I reserve the right to criticise who I like BR, and I'm happy to criticise the lying cnut we have for a pm whom blamed the EU for Russia invading the Crimea ffs, and he lied again and again about the UK leading the charge to sanction the oligarchs. I think Zelensky is getting stuck into Germany rightfully for becoming dependent on russian gas. Are you concerned at all about johnson going begging to the saudi's for oil?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

May I suggest you are rather missing the big picture here?

Zelensky is acting a role.

Ask yourself: what does Zelensky want more than anything? He wants the fighting to end and Russia to get out of Ukraine.

There's only two ways that is going to happen. Either the fighting goes on for years until Russia's will is ground down. Or Putin is given something he can hold up as a victory, facilitating retreat.

Zelensky would be insane to will the former.

So he's implicitly offering Russia two things to speed the former.

Ukraine will not join NATO.

Ukraine will not join the EU. Or, more specifically, will not buddy up to Germany.

But joining NATO and the EU have been popular in Ukraine for years. So he needs to take public opinion with him.

He needs to tell Ukraine that NATO and Germany haven't been their friends.

He's already done that effectively with NATO. He shouted from the rooftops that he needed a NATO no-fly zone, knowing damn well that NATO could not do that without starting WWIII. Now he can say to his people: see! NATO isn't our salvation.

Berating Germany is the next step. Germany has just announced that it is doubling its defence budget. It has finally realised the military threat that Russia poses. If Zelensky cuddles up to Germany, that makes it impossible for Putin to withdraw. So Zelensky has to very publicly distance himself from Germany. He's doing it in a way that has to convince Putin he means it, and convince the Ukrainian people that Germany didn't help them.

Finally, he's bigging up us because he needs to give a signal on where a post war Ukraine will be aligned. If he's not going to be able to get closer to the EU, he will want to have relations with the UK. Because that is less threatening to Putin.

He is playing a very skilful game for the highest stakes. Please don't drag this down into a Brexit swamp.

[River Don]

Branton,

It's easy to understand the initial German reluctance to commit against Russia. The country is far more dependant on Russian hydrocarbons. Understandably Germany has, since the last war been reluctant to involve itself in military conflict too.

The UK and US has been alerting Germany to the dependence they have on Russia for years. BUT Germany has an energy problem. Geography and economics have made Russian gas irresistibly attractive.

Things have rapidly escalated. The rules have changed. Make no mistake, Germany is now responding fully to the Ukrainian effort and I think given this recent change Zelensky was a bit harsh in his criticism. It should not be forgotten, the cost of all this is likely to be higher, perhaps much higher for Germany than for us in the UK.

[belton rover]

Hypothetically speaking, if Britain was being invaded by another country to stop us having a choice to join NATO (or the EU for that matter), I doubt we would give in to them and promise that we wouldn’t.

[wilts rover]

This makes interesting reading


https://twitter.com/investigate_eu/status/1504353552738758658

Yes, why have it left the UK out? We have exported £56 million worth of arms (£1.5 billion, 'military capable' goods) to Russia since 2010.

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/02/15/uk-approved-military-exports-to-russia-exceed-ukraine-by-18-million-since-2010/

https://aoav.org.uk/2018/uk-arms-exports-to-russia/

https://www.mylondon.news/news/uk-world-news/british-arms-firms-given-licences-23336113

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

May I suggest you are rather missing the big picture here?

Zelensky is acting a role.

Ask yourself: what does Zelensky want more than anything? He wants the fighting to end and Russia to get out of Ukraine.

There's only two ways that is going to happen. Either the fighting goes on for years until Russia's will is ground down. Or Putin is given something he can hold up as a victory, facilitating retreat.

Zelensky would be insane to will the former.

So he's implicitly offering Russia two things to speed the former.

Ukraine will not join NATO.

Ukraine will not join the EU. Or, more specifically, will not buddy up to Germany.

But joining NATO and the EU have been popular in Ukraine for years. So he needs to take public opinion with him.

He needs to tell Ukraine that NATO and Germany haven't been their friends.

He's already done that effectively with NATO. He shouted from the rooftops that he needed a NATO no-fly zone, knowing damn well that NATO could not do that without starting WWIII. Now he can say to his people: see! NATO isn't our salvation.

Berating Germany is the next step. Germany has just announced that it is doubling its defence budget. It has finally realised the military threat that Russia poses. If Zelensky cuddles up to Germany, that makes it impossible for Putin to withdraw. So Zelensky has to very publicly distance himself from Germany. He's doing it in a way that has to convince Putin he means it, and convince the Ukrainian people that Germany didn't help them.

Finally, he's bigging up us because he needs to give a signal on where a post war Ukraine will be aligned. If he's not going to be able to get closer to the EU, he will want to have relations with the UK. Because that is less threatening to Putin.

He is playing a very skilful game for the highest stakes. Please don't drag this down into a Brexit swamp.

Should have added.

There is no way ever that Ukraine is joining NATO. Not a chance in a million. And Zelensky knows that.

The EU situation is more nuanced. Ukraine will not be joining the EU, but will be much closer to it after the War. It's just that Zelensky needs to plausibly be able to pose right now in a way that suggests that won't happen. So Putin had his escape route. After the War is a different matter.

[glosterred]

This makes interesting reading


https://twitter.com/investigate_eu/status/1504353552738758658

Yes, why have it left the UK out? We have exported £56 million worth of arms (£1.5 billion, 'military capable' goods) to Russia since 2010.

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/02/15/uk-approved-military-exports-to-russia-exceed-ukraine-by-18-million-since-2010/

https://aoav.org.uk/2018/uk-arms-exports-to-russia/

https://www.mylondon.news/news/uk-world-news/british-arms-firms-given-licences-23336113

Maybe simply that the UK isn’t in the EU any more.

[drfchound]

I reserve the right to criticise who I like BR, and I'm happy to criticise the lying cnut we have for a pm whom blamed the EU for Russia invading the Crimea ffs, and he lied again and again about the UK leading the charge to sanction the oligarchs. I think Zelensky is getting stuck into Germany rightfully for becoming dependent on russian gas. Are you concerned at all about johnson going begging to the saudi's for oil?

We?

[River Don]

I caught a bit of the Putin show. That looked a really shite gig.

The most remarkable thing about him was that his ordinary looking, navy blue coat actually retails for more than ten grand. I wonder what the average Russian would make of that?

And what a crap orator. Adolf had a bit of passion for his fascist demagoguery. This was less Nuremberg, more team leader presentation at the Stevenage Arts & Leisure centre. Watching him though, it's not only the multitude of mislead Russians, I'm convinced he really believes what he comes out with too. He completely inhabits the lies.

[wilts rover]

This makes interesting reading


https://twitter.com/investigate_eu/status/1504353552738758658

Yes, why have it left the UK out? We have exported £56 million worth of arms (£1.5 billion, 'military capable' goods) to Russia since 2010.

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/02/15/uk-approved-military-exports-to-russia-exceed-ukraine-by-18-million-since-2010/

https://aoav.org.uk/2018/uk-arms-exports-to-russia/

https://www.mylondon.news/news/uk-world-news/british-arms-firms-given-licences-23336113

Maybe simply that the UK isn’t in the EU any more.

Is that why you found it interesting? Because it criticises the EU for what the UK is doing more of - but ignores it?

UK firms were exhibiting their products to Russian arms dealers LAST WEEK:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/exclusive-uk-firms-bankroll-arms-fair-where-russia-shows-off-weapons/

[glosterred]

This makes interesting reading


https://twitter.com/investigate_eu/status/1504353552738758658

Yes, why have it left the UK out? We have exported £56 million worth of arms (£1.5 billion, 'military capable' goods) to Russia since 2010.

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/02/15/uk-approved-military-exports-to-russia-exceed-ukraine-by-18-million-since-2010/

https://aoav.org.uk/2018/uk-arms-exports-to-russia/

https://www.mylondon.news/news/uk-world-news/british-arms-firms-given-licences-23336113

Maybe simply that the UK isn’t in the EU any more.

Is that why you found it interesting? Because it criticises the EU for what the UK is doing more of - but ignores it?

UK firms were exhibiting their products to Russian arms dealers LAST WEEK:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/exclusive-uk-firms-bankroll-arms-fair-where-russia-shows-off-weapons/

No I found it interesting because not just this country has been selling arms to Russia but the EU has been doing just as much. Balance is everything

[River Don]

Gun battles in the centre of Mariupol.

The Russians are moving in. They'll either take it or it'll turn into Leningrad.

[River Don]

They bombed another shelter, this time an art school where 400 were sheltering.

There are no excuses they have to be targeting civilians.

But then I suppose he is at war with Ukrainian civil society. A victory for him must involve breaking the spirit of the civilian population

It's utterly barbaric

[Branton Red]

Branton,

It's easy to understand the initial German reluctance to commit against Russia. The country is far more dependant on Russian hydrocarbons. Understandably Germany has, since the last war been reluctant to involve itself in military conflict too.

The UK and US has been alerting Germany to the dependence they have on Russia for years. BUT Germany has an energy problem. Geography and economics have made Russian gas irresistibly attractive.

Things have rapidly escalated. The rules have changed. Make no mistake, Germany is now responding fully to the Ukrainian effort and I think given this recent change Zelensky was a bit harsh in his criticism. It should not be forgotten, the cost of all this is likely to be higher, perhaps much higher for Germany than for us in the UK.

Hi RD I nearly 100% agree with your analysis.

Germany didn't have to go down the route of becoming reliant on Russian gas - it did so on financial grounds.

Germany didn't have to decide to spend significantly less on defence than the NATO 2% target over the last 2 decades - it did so on financial grounds.

Not only did the UK and US alert Germany to the dangers of these policies. Germany continued underfunding it's military and building Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 throughout Putin's actions in Grozny, Georgia, Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Germany is the significant economic and political power in Europe meaning other neighbouring countries have followed it's lead on the above 2 issues.

To be clear the only people responsible for the death and destruction in Ukraine are Putin and his cronies. Putin is evil but he is not a madman. He is a rational strategic opportunist with evil intent. He's made a huge strategic error in Ukraine but he saw an opportunity because: -

- He saw much of Europe, led by Germany, as being militarily weak
- The US was looking increasingly inward - under Trump and Biden - confirmed by the Afghan withdrawal
- He saw much of Europe, led my Germany, as beholden to Russia for gas imports
- The price of gas and oil was rising considerably after the Covid recovery began (Putin helped engineer this price rise too)

Rich democracies IMO have a moral duty to encourage and defend democratic freedoms of all peoples which goes beyond keeping domestic energy prices or defence spending low. Germany has failed abysmally in this moral duty with it's self-interested geopolitical decision making over the last 20 years.

The consequence of this decision making continues. Nordstream 1 remains open, Russian gas flows into Europe, European money flows into Russia helping fund the Russian tanks and missiles flowing into Ukraine.

Therefore the criticism from Zelesny was thoroughly justified (this is where I disagree with you).

[Branton Red]

Should have added.

There is no way ever that Ukraine is joining NATO. Not a chance in a million. And Zelensky knows that.

The EU situation is more nuanced. Ukraine will not be joining the EU, but will be much closer to it after the War. It's just that Zelensky needs to plausibly be able to pose right now in a way that suggests that won't happen. So Putin had his escape route. After the War is a different matter.

Billy your theory re the German criticism is not without merit however there was no such criticism when President Zelesny addressed the EU www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVvkdwksxMw. It is telling the criticism was saved for Germany alone - see my post answering RD above.

Your argument on the UK speech is much weaker. It overestimates the UK's importance to Ukraine. It also misjudges Ukrainian priorities which is help now whilst in peril not future friendships. The president will understand the power criticism from him would have on a democratic Government. If the help being provided by the UK  was as woeful as some on here suggest then at least some faint criticism would be expected. There is not a scintilla of criticism however.

Re your comment directed to me on Brexit: -

1) You and others have denigrated UK aid to Ukraine often comparing it unfavourably to EU aid, have unquestioningly lauded said EU aid whilst conveniently ignoring how the actions of Germany (and others) has helped encourage and fund Putin's actions. Hence my Europhile comment.

2) My criticism is not of the EU per se but individual states primarily Germany. (of course certain sanctions must go through the EU)

3) I, unlike you, have not mentioned Brexit on this thread

4) I, unlike you, have not been crass enough to make comparisons between the EU and Putin's Russia

5) As you've brought it up there is a clear benefit of Brexit highlighted here - our ability to take out trading sanctions against rogue states unilaterally without being vetoed by other countries with vested interests

6) You have some cheek given you've used every opportunity available on this thread to express your vitriolic hatred for the Tories and Johnson. You've even laughably suggested Boris is a Russian spy. A man with little 'common sense' intelligence and practically zero discretion who can't even keep an illegal cheese and wine party secret (or understand why it should need to be kept secret re his personal political survival). This is not a cogent argument but a case of what is the worst accusation you can level in the current climate at a political enemy - schoolboy stuff.

Thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, injured, forced to leave their homes and country and a hard won democracy of 44 million people is under severe threat. Please don't drag this down into the foetid swamp of playground party politics.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I'm happy to acknowledge that you were criticising Germany not the EU. My apogies for that error. Many people have used criticism of Germany as a reason for disliking the entire EU and I made the mistake of thinking that was what you were doing. Happy to hold my hand up and admit that was wrong.

As for your other specific criticisms.
1) I've said nothing about aid. I've said plenty about our response to refugees and I stand by every word. Feel free to point out which bits you disagree with.

4) I haven't the faintest idea what you are talking about. I have never compared the EU to Putin's Russia. What I HAVE done, frequently is to point out the childishness of people using comparisons between the EU and dictatorships. I don't recall you ever taking people to task for making those comparisons, so I've no idea what your opinion is.

5) And that independence of action can in practice lead to us giving kleptocrats plenty of notice that sanctions are coming. So that, while EU countries were impounding superyachts, we we sending the Riot Squad round to kick protestors out of a kleptocrat's mansion.


6) Don't put words in my mouth. I didn't accuse Johnson of being a spy. I said there is a body of evidence to suggest he is or has been an agent of Russia. As in, someone taking actions that are in their interests. I've explained the evidence that underpins that thinking. Feel free to explain which bits you have issues with.

[wilts rover]

Point 6.

In April 2018 shortly after the Salisbury posioning Johnson, then Foreign Secretary attendend a party at the mansion of Evgeny Lebedez without his security detail. At the party was Lebedez's father, an ex-KGB agent.

Rory Stewart, then a minister in the foreign office under Johnson, was also invited to the party where he was told 'there would be girls'. Stewart, recognising the security implications refused the offer.

One would expect the mansion of a multi-millionaire to have plenty of CCTV coverage.

I believe the correct term is 'Russian asset'.

As far as I am aware the step-grandaughter of the Russian foreign minister still lives in London as does the family of a previous one. Also as far as I am aware no Russian that has been granted a golden passport or donated to the Tory Party has yet been sanctioned. In fact most of the Russians who have been sanctioned by the UK have no connection with this country.

'Russian asset'.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-invited-lebedevs-villa-girls-26485306

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.
"Asset" is a better choice of word than "agent". I know what I meant by "agent" but it appears to be open to being read another way.

[Colemans Left Hook]

i have just been checking what Russian Art is coming up at the major auction houses (it's hot at the moment - "what isn't faked" )


https://www.sothebys.com/en/departments/russian-art

the above currentlythinks it's having an on line auction next month


Type: auction
Easter Feast
4–14 APRIL 2022 | 2:00 PM BST | LONDON

Just like "ivory" is no go we need to make anything and everything with Russian Provenance "no go"  at these auction houses

Major Auction Houses accept bitcoin etc in payment so at present they can circumnavigate the present rules

as i said

https://www.artfixdaily.com/news_feed/2022/03/16/9814-russian-art-auctions-cancelled-by-sothebys-christies-and-bonhams

Russian Art Auctions Cancelled by Sotheby's, Christie's and Bonhams
March 16, 2022 17:46

However

just this minute found this out

Phillips auction house has been under scutiny for its Russian ownership and earmarked fees from its March 3 sale of 20th century and contemporary art to the Ukrainian Red Cross Society, which amounted to a £5.8 million ($7.7 million) donation.

so why hasn't this one been closed down   me thinx the ownership is a closely guarded secret ?? I certainly didn't know that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Look what happens when you give kleptocrats notice that you really, really, REALLY are coming for their assests.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60825983

[BillyStubbsTears]

Utterly embarrassing and humiliating to have someone from a country under invasion have to speak to the UK PM like this.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1506351163335233539

[Sprotyrover]

Who TF writes Boris Johnsons speeches and who TF proof reads em for tardiness.?