Ukraine

[Bristol Red Rover]

QED

That's a poor rhetorical attempt.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Because, as I've said before, I try not to engage with the Far Left/Right who have a conclusion before they begin.

[Bristol Red Rover]

BST At least you recognise they are doing. Some fools see it as one sided, same with civilian deaths. And the use of human shields appears to be more Ukraine - most notably in Mariupol.

DD, they have guns and are shelling enemy positions and civilians. Lots of videos showing this. Guessing you haven't looked?

BRR

See, i would say that is defending your country and fighting off invaders, who after all have already reduced most of the towns into rubble.

It's not as one sided as you seem to imply. In some regions, it may well be predominantly Russians causing the rubble, certainly they are targeting lots of infastructure.

In the Donbas, Ukraine is at least equally to blame for creating rubble.

In areas such as Mariupol, the rubble may be more from the Russians, but how else to deal with snipers? And the use of human shields there appears to be very one sided. The Azov Ukraine fighters were more than desperate, they used all they could including civilians.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Because, as I've said before, I try not to engage with the Far Left/Right who have a conclusion before they begin.

I think you'll see I have placed more than one side as being culpable. You however choose to see it as entirely a Russian evil. I think that is a stronger entrenched perspective.

Far left, far right? Seems you are trying to create black and white. If so, you are missing what's happening.

[River Don]

I know if the Russians were invading the UK,  I wouldn't be overly concerned if the RAF had to flatten say Southampton to stop them landing.

I know I would not just sit back and accept Putins rule for the sake of preventing bloodshed in an invasion. I'd want to do what I could to help the fight back and if all looked lost, I'd be looking for a way out to Canada or somewhere.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Latest on Russia military vehicle losses.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

738 tanks gone. That's about 25% of all the operational tanks the entire Russian forces were believed to have at the start of the conflict.

Not the Russian forces in Ukraine. The entire national Russian army.

[River Don]

They are having to dig out old 1960s tanks from deep storage to send to southern Ukraine. They won't need high tech equipment to take those out.

[River Don]

Latest on Russia military vehicle losses.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

738 tanks gone. That's about 25% of all the operational tanks the entire Russian forces were believed to have at the start of the conflict.

Not the Russian forces in Ukraine. The entire national Russian army.

That site only uses verified photographs to calculate the numbers. It suggests the actual figure will be higher.

I've seen estimates above 1,000 destroyed Russian tanks... Which must be getting on to a third of the entire fleet!

[danumdon]

Do you get the impression that the Russians have learnt absolutely nothing about modern warfare going right back to the start of the last century, probably further. They still want to throw massive amounts of men and resources into a war without any care or thought for human life. Such a backward society, they have learnt nothing about anything.They will take many years to properly integrate into modern society, if they can ever get rid of leaders with empire delusions.

[River Don]

The U.S. estimates that Russian President Vladimir Putin has "around 75 percent of his total military committed to the fight in Ukraine," clarifying later that the 75 percent figure mostly refers to "battalion tactical groups, which is the units that he has primarily relied upon."

"At the height of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, we were about 29 percent committed," former U.S. Army Europe commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges noted Tuesday at the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank. "And it was difficult to sustain that."

If that's right and 75% of the Russian military are in Ukraine, then that would mean they've lost something like half their tanks they originally commited to the campaign.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Latest on Russia military vehicle losses.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

738 tanks gone. That's about 25% of all the operational tanks the entire Russian forces were believed to have at the start of the conflict.

Not the Russian forces in Ukraine. The entire national Russian army.

Ukraine losses?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Entirely missing the point BRR.

Ukraine has a supply pipeline to restore losses. Russia is rapidly running down its ground-based hardware to the point that it will have little effective ground warfare making capability left. And with an economy about the size of Spain's, but three times as many mouths to feed, it's going to be a generation-long job at least to replace these losses.

And for what? To attempt to satisfy the ego of a fascist thug.

[wilts rover]

Worthwhile revisting this post from a couple of weeks back I think.

If you put this together with what BST & RD have posted today - then the current Russian tactics to go as hard as they can, to sieze as much as they can, whilst they can, begin to make a lot more sense.

Really interesting (although long) assessment of current state of play in Ukraine by a US defence analyist.

Well worth a read of it all but spoiler alert, Russians have used up their best equipment and best troops and are growing weaker. Ukraine has lost few troops and is getting better and better equipment from NATO (with more on its way) and getting stronger.

Russia has a maximum four weeks left to make gains before they will start being in serious trouble. At present they are stalemated - if not being pushed back.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1524760462180683776

[Bristol Red Rover]

Worthwhile revisting this post from a couple of weeks back I think.

If you put this together with what BST & RD have posted today - then the current Russian tactics to go as hard as they can, to sieze as much as they can, whilst they can, begin to make a lot more sense.

Really interesting (although long) assessment of current state of play in Ukraine by a US defence analyist.

Well worth a read of it all but spoiler alert, Russians have used up their best equipment and best troops and are growing weaker. Ukraine has lost few troops and is getting better and better equipment from NATO (with more on its way) and getting stronger.

Russia has a maximum four weeks left to make gains before they will start being in serious trouble. At present they are stalemated - if not being pushed back.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1524760462180683776

Things could well change if and when the new supplies make it to the frontliine. We'll see.

Not sure Russia has been upping it's efforts that much. They seem to have been consistent with heavy shelling of Ukraine positions for some time. The effects of that appear to be working in terms of territory gains as can be seen at several locations.

One interesting region is north of Kharkiv where Russia withdrew significantly and seemed to go relatively quiet. Over recent days that region has heated up. Possibly it's to keep Ukraine troops tied down, or maybe now Ukraines have advanced they are in more vulnerable positions? Obviously Ukraine will not be wanting to lose Kharkiv.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Entirely missing the point BRR.

Ukraine has a supply pipeline to restore losses. Russia is rapidly running down its ground-based hardware to the point that it will have little effective ground warfare making capability left. And with an economy about the size of Spain's, but three times as many mouths to feed, it's going to be a generation-long job at least to replace these losses.

And for what? To attempt to satisfy the ego of a fascist thug.

I don't think that supply line is working effectively yet.

On the other hand Russia has brought up some v modern equipment as well as the loudly reported by westrn media supply of ancient tanks - though your media probably didn't specifiy how those tanks have been modernised?

So I take it you haven't a Scooby what the Ukraine losses are?

[turnbull for england]

The losses will be heavy , on every level . That's not the point though is it . Putin sold his  nation a cakewalk and now months in they might be down half their tanks and lord knows how many men as they are entrenched in the worst fighting for 70 odd yrs  There's no one going to rushing ( at least formally) to help financially assist Russia rebuild as there will be and is with Ukraine. Is there a tipping point coming ?

[River Don]

How I understand it is that currently Russia is making gains in Dontesk.

It's doing this by chucking everything at it. The artillery bombardment is being effective because, they have a lot of it and Ukraine doesn't have enough weapons with a long enough range to deal with it. Ukraine is currently losing a lot of troops.

Ukraine is also running low on the high tech anti tank systems. They have been using them up at a phenomenal rate.

As I understand it the US is commited to supply Ukraine with better artillery but they need time to supply and train.

I'm sure the manufacturers of NLAW and javelins will be working flat out.

So it's very much a war of attrition but I would assume Ukraine is in a better position with its resupply of weapons.

Putin believes the west can't afford to keep this up and when the energy crisis hits hard in the winter Europe will want peace.

[Filo]

I see Putins attack dog Lavrov has said Putin is well, given he’s a lying bas**rd  and they’ve had months now to put out he is well, I’d interpret Lavrov’s words as Putin is seriously  ill

[River Don]

I suppose the supply of semiconductors from China might be an issue for both sides.

Also Putin had the option of declaring war, introducing conscription and throwing even more manpower at it.

Currently it is believed Russia is struggling to relieve war weary troops.

It seems at the moment it's a question of holding on until more equipment arrives.

[River Don]

Entirely missing the point BRR.

Ukraine has a supply pipeline to restore losses. Russia is rapidly running down its ground-based hardware to the point that it will have little effective ground warfare making capability left. And with an economy about the size of Spain's, but three times as many mouths to feed, it's going to be a generation-long job at least to replace these losses.

And for what? To attempt to satisfy the ego of a fascist thug.

I don't think that supply line is working effectively yet.

On the other hand Russia has brought up some v modern equipment as well as the loudly reported by westrn media supply of ancient tanks - though your media probably didn't specifiy how those tanks have been modernised?

So I take it you haven't a Scooby what the Ukraine losses are?

Better sights and aiming equipment, a bit of a refurb seems to be it.

One problem with the old tanks is they use a different size shell. A logistical nightmare for the Russians.

[danumdon]

I would  also hazard a guess that it suits the Ukraine narrative just now to be seen to be on the back foot in allowing a certain type tactical fall back. They need this time frame to put pressure on the flaky EU to continue with the arms shipments, they know they can rely on the US and the UK but they need the whole developed world to stay on side.

If this is the case then provided they can hold out personnel wise they will eventually get the kit they require and will have a fighting chance of matching the Russians and getting lost ground back, by this stage the Russians will be down to the cadet army and whatever kit they have left, can't see anyone admitting to resupply them.

Of course if the EU don't pull their weight then all bets are off and i could see some sort of negotiation coming into affect with the Russians holding onto their gains. If this was so then i can't see how the US and UK could ever trust the EU again as a unified force for anything. Strange times.

[River Don]

Yep,

I can see this reaffirming the UK/US relationship.

I think this winter the UK will be shipping in American gas to keep the lights on. As Norway is increasingly called upon to divert gas supplies from the UK to the continent.

And the UK has the terminals already in place to accept shipped Nat gas, unlike Germany.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I see Putin's stooge (and pal of Johnson and Farage) Orban is stiffing the EU attempts to come to an agreement in banning Putin's oil and gas.

[danumdon]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1531012721713504257?t=_8Z3O54cxrNCbD-HhmxX5Q&s=19


Listening to this piece of work gives you a clear indication of where these people are coming from,

Straight from the 19th century, this backward country will never achieve anything with the likes of this blowhard.

[BobG]

Thank you DD. That tells us all we need to know doesn't it? I really don't care if NATO or the EU or anybody else helped stir up this trouble. The point is that tossers like this, behaving, and even thinking, like troglodytes, do not deserve to survive. Simples.

BobG

[Bristol Red Rover]

Thank you DD. That tells us all we need to know doesn't it? I really don't care if NATO or the EU or anybody else helped stir up this trouble. The point is that tossers like this, behaving, and even thinking, like troglodytes, do not deserve to survive. Simples.

BobG

I'm more than surprised that you don't care.

[Bristol Red Rover]

How I understand it is that currently Russia is making gains in Dontesk.

It's doing this by chucking everything at it. The artillery bombardment is being effective because, they have a lot of it and Ukraine doesn't have enough weapons with a long enough range to deal with it. Ukraine is currently losing a lot of troops.

Ukraine is also running low on the high tech anti tank systems. They have been using them up at a phenomenal rate.

As I understand it the US is commited to supply Ukraine with better artillery but they need time to supply and train.

I'm sure the manufacturers of NLAW and javelins will be working flat out.

So it's very much a war of attrition but I would assume Ukraine is in a better position with its resupply of weapons.

Putin believes the west can't afford to keep this up and when the energy crisis hits hard in the winter Europe will want peace.

I don't think it's a ploy by Ukraine to fall back. They just are losing ground as Russia asserts itself. Falling back can gain momentum, that is surely why they'll do all to avoid that.

The re supplies will be crucial. Will Russia target the routes? Will supplies actually be sent soon enough? How much of the re supplies are hopeful promises?

I'm sure Russia will have a limit on what it can chuck at Ukraine, who knows what that will be.

Meanwhile, behind the nationalistic blag from both sides, it doesnt seem there's much movement in establishing mutual grounds for a ceasefire or peace. I don't see the Ukraines being much the player there, it's EU/NATO who have their own interests and will refuse to budge as Ukraine bleeds.

[BillyStubbsTears]

"Bothsides". The bone idle argument approach des nos jours.

Split the "nationalistic blag from both sides" into the differences between the two sides.

One side is blagging nationalistically about its historic right to obliterate the very existence of an independent neighbour. It is doing that by obliterating city after city on that nation's soil.

The other "nationalistic blag" is a desperate fight for the very survival of a people as a free, independent entity.

But yeah. Bothsides.

[River Don]

The tactics Russia is using to gain ground appear to be horrific.

Shell the target for 3 or 4 hours, then mount a ground attack looking for a breakthrough. When they all been killed start the shelling again.

It's like 1945, Putin is prepared to try to take this land with the blood of Russia's youth.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The tactics Russia is using to gain ground appear to be horrific.

Shell the target for 3 or 4 hours, then mount a ground attack looking for a breakthrough. When they all been killed start the shelling again.

It's like 1945, Putin is prepared to try to take this land with the blood of Russia's youth.

Kinda what Ukraine was doing to the Donbas before Russia officially joined in.