Ukraine

[BillyStubbsTears]

Which bits don't you agree with AL?

[Metalmicky]

[Axholme Lion]

Which bits don't you agree with AL?

The difference of kicking the bucket with covid as against of covid which swindled the figures.

[BillyStubbsTears]

So how do you explain the evidence based points I've made about the excess deaths pretty much exactly rising and falling wiith the COVID waves?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Big things going on at the Eastern Front. Sounds like the Russian defence at Izyum is evaporating rapidly.

[mushRTID]

Big things going on at the Eastern Front. Sounds like the Russian defence at Izyum is evaporating rapidly.

Can I ask where you are seeing this please? Genuinely interested to read about it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Big things going on at the Eastern Front. Sounds like the Russian defence at Izyum is evaporating rapidly.

Can I ask where you are seeing this please? Genuinely interested to read about it.

This about Izyum. https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1568301441189662720
Need to be careful as this is not an independent source. But this is coming after independently verified news that the Ukrainians have driven a massive wedge through the Russian front line in the past 3 days.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1568218806170054656

Word is that the Kherson attack was a feint. Russian bought it and rushed troops from the Kharkhiv front to shore up Kherson. Then Ukraine launched the planned attack between Kharkhiv and Izyum.

There are reports of Russian soldiers being captured having run away and changed into civilian clothes. And videos of Russian tanks retreating at top speed with troops hanging to the turrets.

Could be a very big development. 

[mushRTID]

Big things going on at the Eastern Front. Sounds like the Russian defence at Izyum is evaporating rapidly.

Can I ask where you are seeing this please? Genuinely interested to read about it.

This about Izyum. https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1568301441189662720
Need to be careful as this is not an independent source. But this is coming after independently verified news that the Ukrainians have driven a massive wedge through the Russian front line in the past 3 days.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1568218806170054656

Word is that the Kherson attack was a feint. Russian bought it and rushed troops from the Kharkhiv front to shore up Kherson. Then Ukraine launched the planned attack between Kharkhiv and Izyum.

There are reports of Russian soldiers being captured having run away and changed into civilian clothes. And videos of Russian tanks retreating at top speed with troops hanging to the turrets.

Could be a very big development. 

Thankyou

[scawsby steve]

There is no favourable endgame in any of this for anyone.

[Bristol Red Rover]

I'd be v surprised if Ukraine get much further, Russia have a large tank brigade about where Ukraine are up to. Plus stretched supply route. But so far impressive.

Given that Russia knew about this for nearly 2 weeks, I can't work out how they didn't have better plans. Could be there's a twist to come?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Like Mike Tyson said. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. If (IF) reports are to be believed, the Russian front line simply evaporated when the Ukrainians attacked. You can have all the plans in the world but if your troops' moralesnd will to resist is f**ked, they aren't worth the paper they are written on.

The big Ukranian victory at the moment appears to be taking Kupyansk. That is the central transport hub for north east Donbas. If the Russians have lost that, they have nowhere to retrench to that can be supplied that side of the Russian border.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wow. Just...wow.

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1568373271086653445

The military experts on Russian State TV are in full on panic mode.

[SydneyRover]

The bit about millions of dissenters!!!

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is no favourable endgame in any of this for anyone.

There's a massively positive endgame. It's the one that appears to be starting. It's the Russian invasion getting smashed, and Putin learning in words of one syllable that his plan for a Greater Russia is absolutely f**ked.

If Ukraine does force him out, they'll have done more fore peace in Europe this century than anyone thought possible.

[Filo]

A push on Crimea and the Black Sea ports will finish Russia, the only option then is for Russia to give up or use the Nukes

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin won't dare use nukes.

We'll see what he is over the next few weeks. He's built up this image of a ruthless, brilliant strategist. Inside I think he's a terrified minor thug who no-one ever stood up to before.

If this Ukraine attack is the start of the end of the war, it's also the start of the end of him.

[Filo]

Putin won't dare use nukes.

We'll see what he is over the next few weeks. He's built up this image of a ruthless, brilliant strategist. Inside I think he's a terrified minor thug who no-one ever stood up to before.

If this Ukraine attack is the start of the end of the war, it's also the start of the end of him.

And NATO ends up at the border with Russia

[BillyStubbsTears]

Apparently Ukraine forces now control Izyum, Lyman and Kupyansk. That's stunning. A bigger move in one day than anything achieved in a month earlier in the war. Question now is, can they continue the momentum?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin won't dare use nukes.

We'll see what he is over the next few weeks. He's built up this image of a ruthless, brilliant strategist. Inside I think he's a terrified minor thug who no-one ever stood up to before.

If this Ukraine attack is the start of the end of the war, it's also the start of the end of him.

And NATO ends up at the border with Russia

Then his successor needs to think long and hard what's in Russia's interests.

[SydneyRover]

What's happening is really quite stunning, going from an invasion with an expected victory counted in days to being stopped, bogged down, and now being pushed back.

The russian command appears to have fallen into the trap of getting its intelligence from the news. I think something similar happened in the mid-east where the false invasion plans were 'advertised'

[BillyStubbsTears]

Funnily enough I was listening to a podcast last week about the Russo-Japanese war of 1904/05.

Russia throwing its weight around and trying to bully neighbours in the Far East. It's navy got absolutely obliterated by Japan at Tsushima. Led immediately to the first Russian Revolution of 1905.

I wonder in this battle is going to become the new Tsushima?

[SydneyRover]

''A group of district council members in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, called for the Russian leader to be charged with treason and removed from office in a rare but brazen protest against the war in Ukraine''

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/09/lawmakers-putin-impeachment-censure-war/

good luck with that one then, but shows as did the vid you posted that dissent is there and hopefully growing, brave stuff

[glosterred]

''A group of district council members in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, called for the Russian leader to be charged with treason and removed from office in a rare but brazen protest against the war in Ukraine''

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/09/lawmakers-putin-impeachment-censure-war/

good luck with that one then, but shows as did the vid you posted that dissent is there and hopefully growing, brave stuff

If I was them, I wouldn't be passing any open windows or taking up offers of a nice cup of tea

[SydneyRover]

The Skripals were not the first 'dissidents' to be poisoned in the UK and of course there maybe more we don't know of. The price of free speech.

''Bulgarian dissident Georgi Markov ‘shot’ by killer poison pellet from an umbrella''

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/bulgarian-dissident-georgi-markov-shot-by-killer-poison-pellet-from-an-umbrella/news-story/1263538e609b4927ebd103bc8f3ac3c2

[BillyStubbsTears]

The speed and effectiveness of this assault is truly mind blowing. In 2-3 days, the Ukraine army has driven a wedge 60-80km deep behind the Russian front line to Kupyansk, then apparently wheeled round southwards and encircled Izyum. In a couple of days, they've encircled an area about the size of South, Easy and West Yorkshire.

It's movement on the scale of the German blitzkrieg in 1940.

EDIT. Wrong from me there. They've encircled an area about the size of SY. They appear to now be pushing flleeiyRusdian troops back out of an area about the size of SY and EY.

Still a massive, massive victory.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not sure there's any coming back from this for Russia. The poor bas**rds they've poured into the front line will be psychologically destroyed by this.

[Filo]

And NATO HASN’t even shown its teeth yet, if Russia can’t beat Ukraine they have no chance of taking NATO on

[BillyStubbsTears]

And NATO HASN’t even shown its teeth yet, if Russia can’t beat Ukraine they have no chance of taking NATO on

And THAT is the big outcome.

Biden and Johnson deserve huge credit for the position they took on this. Along with the leaders of Poland and the Baltics. They've made the point clearly to Russia that this is a big f**king red line. Russia will never again try this sort of stunt in our lifetimes. Ever, if they can wean themselves off their Great Russia myth and become a normal, modern country.

[danumdon]

All sounds very promising from a western point of view into seeing some sort of end to this conflict. Like others have said whenever he's been cornered before Putin has come out fighting rather than used diplomatic means to reach a negotiated solution, could this be a very dangerous time right now with this beast cornered?

If all else fails for him he could always get the guy of the video, the one in the retro Adam Ant jacket, he sounds like a proper Russian nutjob. Send him over, the "special operation" would be completed in days!!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin has never ever been put on the back foot. He's played the bully who chose his opponents well and hit them hard. He's f**ked up beyond the scope of nightmares here. And short of Armageddon, he's no cards left to play.