Ukraine

[Bristol Red Rover]

Mobilisation is going to do sweet FA. The regular Russian army has lost a massive chunk of its officers & 2000 of its 3000 front line tanks and it's all but run out of munitions. You're not going to fix that by calling up taxi drivers from Yakutsk.

He's lost the war on the battlefield. He's now lashing out threatening an escalation in a final attempt to bully everyone.

But here's the thing. The fact that the announcement was delayed 16 hours says a lot. It says to me that he's not in absolute control anymore. The delay wasn't about finessing detail because there wasn't any detail in the announcement. It can only be because there was uncertainty or disagreement in the background.

I've said all along that he's a low grade thug who has made his way by picking weak enemies to beat up. He f**ked up beyond all measure this time and he's flou dering utterly out of his depth.

Mobilisation of 200 to 300k made up of combat experienced and fully trained troops will undoubtedly make a difference. Included there for instance are pilots who will be flying a few hundred aircraft that till now haven't been used. The taxi drivers are on the Ukraine side, that's been made clear. Well motivated,  but minimally trained.

Ukraine has lost possibly 100k of its military already. Russia far far less. One tactic of Russia has been to use Chechens, Donbas people, Wagners to do most of its fighting,  and taking the majority of losses on that side. This has minimised, not stopped, the amount of Russians taken out.

These extra troops are a miniscule proportion of what Russia can call up. Long term Ukraine is in deep shit, though they could instigate an offensive on the southern front before the referendums. This could bear fruit in the short term. As the rain arrives, they will be severely hindered. As winter comes, they will be outnumbered as well as outgunned.

Russia has been planning this for some time, why wouldn't they? So things are in place for a fairly swift instigation of this plan.

Tanks - I doubt that very much, about as true as the taxi driver confusion. Plus Russia is mobilising workers to produce more arms.

The question is whether Ukraine leaders are so far down the Western rabbit hole to continue and not get back to their negotiations, where they were before Winston Johnson told them the solution to their problem was oven ready.

We are in dire danger of a nuke war. Will the yanksaand NATO countries push things? I can assure you, there's no freedom coming anybodies way if they do.

[River Don]

There is no choice.

We have to stand fast now or face the Jack boot in the face for ever.

We have no choice. Come what may we can only defy Putin.

[SydneyRover]

Journo here is saying Macron who's spent 100 hrs or more talking to putin and Erdoğan should step up and try to make him see reason, if that's at all possible.

The fact that people like Macron and Erdoğan have been seen to be attempting to hold dialogue with Putin has in effect enabled him to somehow maintain he's still relevant and a statesman on the world stage.

What they should of been doing is maintaining back channels out of the public domain, and telling this warmonger that in no uncertain terms would Russia ever be allowed back into normal society whist they continue to carry out this "special operation" and with people like him in control. Under no circumstances should the west have been seen to be trying to negotiate with this type of rouge state.

Pressure needs applying to prominent Russians, especially those outside the confines of Russia, until such a time people like Putin and his desperate cabal are removed one way or another then Russia will be sent back into the dark ages, either economically or politically. with finance or Nukes.

I guess negotiating grain shipments must have been a waste of time then

[River Don]

What it comes down to is principle.

Might alone cannot be right. Churchill was right in that respect.

The West can never give up on its principles. Putin can either fight conventionally and lose or defy us with weapons of mass destruction and so lose.

[BobG]

"200 to 300 thousand combat experienced and fully trained troops..."

Trained I can buy - even if they are reservists. Fully trained sounds hyperbolic. But combat experienced? Where pray? Old men from Afghanistan? Thugs from bullying in Chechnya 20 years ago? Syria? Experienced in fighting ill armed amateur partisans?

BobG

[i_ateallthepies]

Mobilisation of 200 to 300k made up of combat experienced and fully trained troops will undoubtedly make a difference. Included there for instance are pilots who will be flying a few hundred aircraft that till now haven't been used. The taxi drivers are on the Ukraine side, that's been made clear. Well motivated,  but minimally trained.

Ukraine has lost possibly 100k of its military already. Russia far far less. One tactic of Russia has been to use Chechens, Donbas people, Wagners to do most of its fighting,  and taking the majority of losses on that side. This has minimised, not stopped, the amount of Russians taken out.

These extra troops are a miniscule proportion of what Russia can call up. Long term Ukraine is in deep shit, though they could instigate an offensive on the southern front before the referendums. This could bear fruit in the short term. As the rain arrives, they will be severely hindered. As winter comes, they will be outnumbered as well as outgunned.

Russia has been planning this for some time, why wouldn't they? So things are in place for a fairly swift instigation of this plan.

Tanks - I doubt that very much, about as true as the taxi driver confusion. Plus Russia is mobilising workers to produce more arms.

The question is whether Ukraine leaders are so far down the Western rabbit hole to continue and not get back to their negotiations, where they were before Winston Johnson told them the solution to their problem was oven ready.

We are in dire danger of a nuke war. Will the yanksaand NATO countries push things? I can assure you, there's no freedom coming anybodies way if they do.

So, BRR, you've spent the last six months soaking up and regurgitating all of the pro-Russian propaganda bullshit being served up to you whilst totally refusing to hear all of the voices telling you it was bullshit, and now the Russians have unequivocally confirmed it was all bullshit and your response to that is to continue your pro-Russian crusade.

You are one sad and deluded individual.

[glosterred]

Found this on Twitter from @osintschizo

Using this allegedly leaked document from the Russian Finance Ministry we can come up with some updated estimates on Russian losses in Ukraine. This document alleges that as of August 28th, Russia had  48,759 troops KIA.

Part 2. Using this letter we get a per day Russian KIA average of 268. Since this letter 24 days ago using the average we get an additional 6,432 Russian KIA making the grand total of Russian KIA of 55,191 (81 more than Ukrainian Government estimate as of today)

[Bristol Red Rover]

"200 to 300 thousand combat experienced and fully trained troops..."

Trained I can buy - even if they are reservists. Fully trained sounds hyperbolic. But combat experienced? Where pray? Old men from Afghanistan? Thugs from bullying in Chechnya 20 years ago? Syria? Experienced in fighting ill armed amateur partisans?

BobG

Chechnya, Syria. You might doubt their skills, time will tell. But likely to be netter  than Taxi drivers.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Mobilisation of 200 to 300k made up of combat experienced and fully trained troops will undoubtedly make a difference. Included there for instance are pilots who will be flying a few hundred aircraft that till now haven't been used. The taxi drivers are on the Ukraine side, that's been made clear. Well motivated,  but minimally trained.

Ukraine has lost possibly 100k of its military already. Russia far far less. One tactic of Russia has been to use Chechens, Donbas people, Wagners to do most of its fighting,  and taking the majority of losses on that side. This has minimised, not stopped, the amount of Russians taken out.

These extra troops are a miniscule proportion of what Russia can call up. Long term Ukraine is in deep shit, though they could instigate an offensive on the southern front before the referendums. This could bear fruit in the short term. As the rain arrives, they will be severely hindered. As winter comes, they will be outnumbered as well as outgunned.

Russia has been planning this for some time, why wouldn't they? So things are in place for a fairly swift instigation of this plan.

Tanks - I doubt that very much, about as true as the taxi driver confusion. Plus Russia is mobilising workers to produce more arms.

The question is whether Ukraine leaders are so far down the Western rabbit hole to continue and not get back to their negotiations, where they were before Winston Johnson told them the solution to their problem was oven ready.

We are in dire danger of a nuke war. Will the yanksaand NATO countries push things? I can assure you, there's no freedom coming anybodies way if they do.

So, BRR, you've spent the last six months soaking up and regurgitating all of the pro-Russian propaganda bullshit being served up to you whilst totally refusing to hear all of the voices telling you it was bullshit, and now the Russians have unequivocally confirmed it was all bullshit and your response to that is to continue your pro-Russian crusade.

You are one sad and deluded individual.

I think you missed what I said. Up to you to choose to believe what you read or not, enjoy.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Found this on Twitter from @osintschizo

Using this allegedly leaked document from the Russian Finance Ministry we can come up with some updated estimates on Russian losses in Ukraine. This document alleges that as of August 28th, Russia had  48,759 troops KIA.

Part 2. Using this letter we get a per day Russian KIA average of 268. Since this letter 24 days ago using the average we get an additional 6,432 Russian KIA making the grand total of Russian KIA of 55,191 (81 more than Ukrainian Government estimate as of today)

If that's true, it is likely half of what Ukraine has lost. But there's no evidence that's not Ukraine/NATO misinfo, tho most likely a Ukraine keyboard warrior.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

If Russia's losses are so low, why do they need to recruit another 300,000 on top of those prisoners? Wagner have already transported those prisoners to Ukraine, as confirmed by one of the prisoners wives. No training whatsoever.

Also appears we should take 'reservists' tag with a very large pinch of salt. Police have been issued with mobilisation notices to serve to any male between 18 & 60 who they see fit to do so.

https://youtu.be/QyCBeymp4Rg

This vid talks about the mobilisation from 10 mins in. Obviously from a Ukranian bias so again pinch of salt maybe required.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You reckon they used reservists en masse in Syria and Chechnya? You are so, so far down the rabbit hole it's actually frightening to watch.

What Putin seems to be  planning is not some strategic masterpiece planned all along, but something similar to how Stalin beat the Germans in the Great Patriotic War. Get column of 8 troops with 2 guns between them. Soldier at the front has one gun. He advances until he's shot. Then the 2nd soldier picks up the gun. Etc.

Where's the second gun you say? That's with the 8th soldier at the back of the column. His job is to shoot any of the other 7 who try to run away.

That's not much of an exaggeration of how Stalin won the Eastern Front in 1943-45. Throw peasant cannon fodder into the front line until the enemy is overwhelmed. It resulted in literally untold millions of deaths.

Putin has already been doing something similar in Donbas, putting his troops into a meat grinder to painfully win villages in weeks of fighting, which they then ran away from as soon as the counter-offensive started. If he is going to double down on that it will be a tragedy on a massive scale. Because the simple fact is that Ukraine has access to weapons of an infinitely better quality and in higher numbers than Russia can now muster. Which is why he's trying to raise the stakes by illegally incorporating Donestk, Luhansk and Kherson into Russia and claiming that Ukraine fighting there will e a direct attack on Russian land.

It's illegal.. It's immoral. It's militarily unsustainable. It's insanely dangerous because of the risk of escalation.

It's what only an out of his depth frightened bully would do. And it is pitiful that idiots in the West, drunk on Putin's propaganda, would try to support and justify it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Found this on Twitter from @osintschizo

Using this allegedly leaked document from the Russian Finance Ministry we can come up with some updated estimates on Russian losses in Ukraine. This document alleges that as of August 28th, Russia had  48,759 troops KIA.

Part 2. Using this letter we get a per day Russian KIA average of 268. Since this letter 24 days ago using the average we get an additional 6,432 Russian KIA making the grand total of Russian KIA of 55,191 (81 more than Ukrainian Government estimate as of today)

If that's true, it is likely half of what Ukraine has lost. But there's no evidence that's not Ukraine/NATO misinfo, tho most likely a Ukraine keyboard warrior.

Big deep breath.

Come on then. Where's your evidence on Ukraine losses?

[Filo]

It’s very strange that now, on the back of the mobilisation news, they have decided to release POW’s

[BillyStubbsTears]

It’s very strange that now, on the back of the mobilisation news, they have decided to release POW’s

In fairness, it's not a one-way release, it's an exchange. There's some very unprofessional reporting which only concentrates on the fact that Russia is leasing POWs. Bi-lateral exchanges often happen in modern conflicts.

[Bristol Red Rover]

You reckon they used reservists en masse in Syria and Chechnya? You are so, so far down the rabbit hole it's actually frightening to watch.

What Putin seems to be  planning is not some strategic masterpiece planned all along, but something similar to how Stalin beat the Germans in the Great Patriotic War. Get column of 8 troops with 2 guns between them. Soldier at the front has one gun. He advances until he's shot. Then the 2nd soldier picks up the gun. Etc.

Where's the second gun you say? That's with the 8th soldier at the back of the column. His job is to shoot any of the other 7 who try to run away.

That's not much of an exaggeration of how Stalin won the Eastern Front in 1943-45. Throw peasant cannon fodder into the front line until the enemy is overwhelmed. It resulted in literally untold millions of deaths.

Putin has already been doing something similar in Donbas, putting his troops into a meat grinder to painfully win villages in weeks of fighting, which they then ran away from as soon as the counter-offensive started. If he is going to double down on that it will be a tragedy on a massive scale. Because the simple fact is that Ukraine has access to weapons of an infinitely better quality and in higher numbers than Russia can now muster. Which is why he's trying to raise the stakes by illegally incorporating Donestk, Luhansk and Kherson into Russia and claiming that Ukraine fighting there will e a direct attack on Russian land.

It's illegal.. It's immoral. It's militarily unsustainable. It's insanely dangerous because of the risk of escalation.

It's what only an out of his depth frightened bully would do. And it is pitiful that idiots in the West, drunk on Putin's propaganda, would try to support and justify it.

Not reservists in Chechnya, combat experienced for Ukraine. Not sure why this is so difficult for you to understand?

The two gun story isn't relating to anything but your fantasy.

This is a huge increase in experienced Russian manpower backed up with upgraded weapons. .

[Bristol Red Rover]

Found this on Twitter from @osintschizo

Using this allegedly leaked document from the Russian Finance Ministry we can come up with some updated estimates on Russian losses in Ukraine. This document alleges that as of August 28th, Russia had  48,759 troops KIA.

Part 2. Using this letter we get a per day Russian KIA average of 268. Since this letter 24 days ago using the average we get an additional 6,432 Russian KIA making the grand total of Russian KIA of 55,191 (81 more than Ukrainian Government estimate as of today)

If that's true, it is likely half of what Ukraine has lost. But there's no evidence that's not Ukraine/NATO misinfo, tho most likely a Ukraine keyboard warrior.

Big deep breath.

Come on then. Where's your evidence on Ukraine losses?

They've been pounded by artillery, 5 to 10 times the shelling that Ukraine has returned. Russia and Ukraine agree on this. What's your estimation?

[turnbull for england]

No doubt theres 1000s of deaths, but considering they  don't care if it's a nursery, shop  or barracks they lob shells at it could any percentage of troops to old ladies killed.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Found this on Twitter from @osintschizo

Using this allegedly leaked document from the Russian Finance Ministry we can come up with some updated estimates on Russian losses in Ukraine. This document alleges that as of August 28th, Russia had  48,759 troops KIA.

Part 2. Using this letter we get a per day Russian KIA average of 268. Since this letter 24 days ago using the average we get an additional 6,432 Russian KIA making the grand total of Russian KIA of 55,191 (81 more than Ukrainian Government estimate as of today)

If that's true, it is likely half of what Ukraine has lost. But there's no evidence that's not Ukraine/NATO misinfo, tho most likely a Ukraine keyboard warrior.

Big deep breath.

Come on then. Where's your evidence on Ukraine losses?

They've been pounded by artillery, 5 to 10 times the shelling that Ukraine has returned. Russia and Ukraine agree on this. What's your estimation?

So you are guessing. Glad we cleared that up.

[normal rules]

Russia will never give up on its attempt to land grab eastern Ukraine. Ukraine will never want to give any of it up. There has to be a compromise here. Perhaps the people of Donbas will vot with their feet later this week . If they do. Let Russia have it . Both sides are going to have to concede something soon for all this to end . Let’s not think about the alternative .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Russia will never give up on its attempt to land grab eastern Ukraine. Ukraine will never want to give any of it up. There has to be a compromise here. Perhaps the people of Donbas will vot with their feet later this week . If they do. Let Russia have it . Both sides are going to have to concede something soon for all this to end . Let’s not think about the alternative .

They Ukrainians in Donbas have left their homeland. There are 9 million displaced people from there. Of course the sham referendums will indicate that there is a majority for union with Russia.

What you are saying is that we should all be complicit in allowing Russia that gain for their aggression.

And then what? What happens when Putin decides he's having the Baltics? Or Moldova? Or Poland?

There's a simple decision here. You stop Putin here and now. Or you let him dictate the future to Europe.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Russia will never give up on its attempt to land grab eastern Ukraine. Ukraine will never want to give any of it up. There has to be a compromise here. Perhaps the people of Donbas will vot with their feet later this week . If they do. Let Russia have it . Both sides are going to have to concede something soon for all this to end . Let’s not think about the alternative .

ironic innit   when you read this

from 2018

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2159713/russia-offers-25-million-acres-land-chinese-farmers

and of course you all remember this ... i certainly do


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_on_the_Far_Eastern_Hectare

[Metalmicky]

Mobilisation has apparently started....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-63002654

[River Don]

Mobilisation started immediately, there are reports now that they are actually looking to recruit 1 million.

And they have been serving anti war demonstrators they have picked up with draft papers. That should be a pretty good deterrent to protest.

No wonder so many have been fleeing for the borders, though I doubt this option will remain open for long. Finland is reportedly going to close its border to Russia to those with tourist papers soon.

[ncRover]

I think Putin’s lost the dressing room

[BobG]

"The two gun story isn't relating to anything but your fantasy."

Really..... That, I am now convinced, sums up your knowledge of history Bristol. It didn't happen all the time, and it happened less and less as Allied manufacturing got to grips with the need, but happen it did - although on a different level to 8 men and 2 guns. Companies, regiments and even brigades. Prisoners released to walk,  unarmed, in front of troops sometimes too... to clear the minefields. They had Comrades pointing, and firing, guns at them too.

BobG

[wilts rover]

Heard this on the radio today, I think it was from someone at the UN.

If Russia stops fighting the war will end. If Ukraine stops fighting Ukraine will end.

Putin can mobilise 100's of thousands of people who dont particurly want to be there as much as he likes. The Ukranians know exactly why they are fighting - these conscripts dont.

[Redroy]

Mobilisation is going to do sweet FA. The regular Russian army has lost a massive chunk of its officers & 2000 of its 3000 front line tanks and it's all but run out of munitions. You're not going to fix that by calling up taxi drivers from Yakutsk.

He's lost the war on the battlefield. He's now lashing out threatening an escalation in a final attempt to bully everyone.

But here's the thing. The fact that the announcement was delayed 16 hours says a lot. It says to me that he's not in absolute control anymore. The delay wasn't about finessing detail because there wasn't any detail in the announcement. It can only be because there was uncertainty or disagreement in the background.

I've said all along that he's a low grade thug who has made his way by picking weak enemies to beat up. He f**ked up beyond all measure this time and he's flou dering utterly out of his depth.

Mobilisation of 200 to 300k made up of combat experienced and fully trained troops will undoubtedly make a difference. Included there for instance are pilots who will be flying a few hundred aircraft that till now haven't been used. The taxi drivers are on the Ukraine side, that's been made clear. Well motivated,  but minimally trained.

Ukraine has lost possibly 100k of its military already. Russia far far less. One tactic of Russia has been to use Chechens, Donbas people, Wagners to do most of its fighting,  and taking the majority of losses on that side. This has minimised, not stopped, the amount of Russians taken out.

These extra troops are a miniscule proportion of what Russia can call up. Long term Ukraine is in deep shit, though they could instigate an offensive on the southern front before the referendums. This could bear fruit in the short term. As the rain arrives, they will be severely hindered. As winter comes, they will be outnumbered as well as outgunned.

Russia has been planning this for some time, why wouldn't they? So things are in place for a fairly swift instigation of this plan.

Tanks - I doubt that very much, about as true as the taxi driver confusion. Plus Russia is mobilising workers to produce more arms.

The question is whether Ukraine leaders are so far down the Western rabbit hole to continue and not get back to their negotiations, where they were before Winston Johnson told them the solution to their problem was oven ready.

We are in dire danger of a nuke war. Will the yanksaand NATO countries push things? I can assure you, there's no freedom coming anybodies way if they do.

All I can say is that this is some mad shit. You drank more Putin kool aid than those mental Russian milbloggers!

[Redroy]

We are in a situation whereby Ukraine have been rotating forces throughout, with them taking time away from the front line, others being trained abroad etc.

On the other hand, you've got Russians who've signed 3 to 6 month contracts who were expecting to go home and get their payout after months of gruelling combat under heavy fire with no break but are now having their short term contract indefinitely extended with no recourse and their units are going to be gapfilled by some random f**king dudes from the provinces.

And that is just the morale side of the deep hole the Russians are in, not to mention quality, logistics, weapons. And winter in trenches.

[normal rules]

The next huge risk is, once the referendums are held; and there are suggestions 80-90% of residents in the Donbas areas under Russian control want to be Russian, then any future attack on these annexed areas will be seen as an attack on Russia. And if the rhetoric continues from the Kremlin about Western weapons being used to now attack Russian soil, then we will be in a very different scenario.
Putin is paving the way for justification of defence of Russia as a whole.