Ukraine

[Bristol Red Rover]

A logistical problem that has seen them out gunning Ukraine by around a factor of ten.

Where is your info from about the availability of weapons and inability to manufacture, and buy, more? How does this complare to Ukraine?

Ukraine has a bloated conscript army too. Russia has far more resources than Ukraine. Far more conscripts available.

Not sure why you are so passionately one sided in this, except for you swallowing pro west/US propaganda, which is mainly put out by the Ukraine MoD.

Russia conscripts not wanting to fight v Ukraine Conscripts wanting to fight
Can you see the anomaly there?

Maybe has some truth in it, but marginal. Lots of Ukraine conscripts are sat in deep trenches, pounded to hell, never see the enemy till they surrender or run.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The best assessment I have seen of the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html

I don't believe he will either, but I do think chemical weapons are a very real possibility, especially if some 'deniability' can be scraped from a 'nearby' chemical plant.

And for balance, do you think Ukraine may try chem weapons? They are already shelling with the illegal anti personel mines in massive numbers.

Honest question - do you know that Ukraine has chemical weapons? Do you have a source? I have not seen a source which says so, and a quick google search says they do not have any programs

Lots of reports of US labs in Ukraine being dodgy. So they could have. But deffo been shelling with anti personnel mines. I'm not sure Russia has done this in return despite having them in stock.

[BobG]

Dutch: the one thing that the article you referenced does not mention is the character and psychology of Vladimir Putin himself - and the role of that in a possible future use of real or improvised nuclear and/or chemical weapons. From what I have read and seen Putin's personality is absolutely key to the liklihood of the use of those weapns. Do you know more than I?

BobG

[Filo]

Ukraine apply to join Nato, everytime Putin plays a card, Ukraine trump that card

[Dutch Uncle]

Dutch: the one thing that the article you referenced does not mention is the character and psychology of Vladimir Putin himself - and the role of that in a possible future use of real or improvised nuclear and/or chemical weapons. From what I have read and seen Putin's personality is absolutely key to the liklihood of the use of those weapns. Do you know more than I?

BobG

Hi Bob, no I don't have any extra knowledge, and further more the assessment that his tactical nuclear weapons would be difficult to deploy was new to me. My personal uninformed feeling is that the accounts some months back about Putin being ill are probably wide of the mark, but he must be frustrated and angry. Hopefully he is still rational, and surely he would try 'deniable' things first.   

[BobG]

That sounds like a convetional attack on a nuclear power station, or maybe a chemical factory, then. And blame it on the Ukrainians.

This might be a link worth seeing although I cannot find either the name or the previous job(s) of the 'ex CIA officer' being interviewed:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html

Me? I worry like hell about the rats. That story tells us everything we need to know right now about Putin.

Bob

[Dutch Uncle]

That sounds like a convetional attack on a nuclear power station, or maybe a chemical factory, then. And blame it on the Ukrainians.

This might be a link worth seeing although I cannot find either the name or the previous job(s) of the 'ex CIA officer' being interviewed:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html

Me? I worry like hell about the rats. That story tells us everything we need to know right now about Putin.

Bob

Wrong link I think Bob, that's the one I linked to.

[wilts rover]

If you listen to/watch Putin's 'speech' today about why he has illegaly annxed part of another country, he hardly mentions Ukraine but rambles on about centuries of western oppression and the justification of war with the west.

Which tells you what he is thinking and what he is thinking is very concerning. Ukraine is now a pawn for him.

[BobG]

Bugger! It was one of the video interviews contained in your link. Doesn't matter though. The gentleman being interviewed was adamant that the worse things look for him and for Russia the more Putin will escalate. He thought tactical nukes could be used but he hoped that the US and NATO are telling the Kremlin that the moment the Russian tactical nukes start to move they will be taken out by western long range precision missiles. A nice idea in some ways.... But definitely, definitely not in others!

Bob

[BobG]

Where's the latter day Narodnaya Volya when you need it...? '(The People's Will'. Planned and carried out the assassination of Czar Alexander II).

Bob

[scawsby steve]

There's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.

If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?

The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.

Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They won't go for a strategic strike out of the blue. That would be utterly insane and I'm sure would lead to the mutiny of the Generals.

More dangerous is a slow drift into a use of tactical nukes that can be argued to be militarily sensible in isolation, and so wouldn't provoke a mutiny. Stopping that outcome depends on a crystal clear message from the West. This is why.

Russia has had a policy for years on  the use of tactical nukes in conflicts with neighbours called "Escalate to De-Escaalte". It goes like this.

Imagine for some reason that Russia invades a NATO neighbour like Estonia. They go in with everything they've got conventionally, and  overwhelm the defences in days. But they've just invaded a NATO state and NATO will be forced to respond. Russia's plan has been that, before NATO can get its shit together, loose off a small nuke against some small Estonian town. That sends a message: "Do you REALLY want to f**k with us America? We're prepared to go all  in here - are you going to risk Chicago to come and save Tallinn?"

The plan is predicated on the idea that the West is too yitten to face Russia down. That it's word on the inviolability of NATO would dissolve if put to the test.

We may yet still face Escalate to De-Escalate in Ukraine. So the West, primarily America, has to make it absolutely unmistakable that it will not back down if Putin tries it. You have to make it clear to the Generals that this is simply not a credible policy and that if they try it, they will face a disaster. Then you hope that if Putin truly is insane and orders it, one of them puts a bullet in his head.

Biden's team have been saying the right things. His National Security Adviser said this week "We have communicated directly, privately at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the United States and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail."

The line I've seen discussed is that if Russia use a nuke in Ukraine, the US response will be an overwhelming cyber attack on Russia, and the conventional destruction of the Black Sea fleet. Absolutely right not to respond with nukes.

[Dutch Uncle]

There's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.

If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?

The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.

Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.

Steve - talking about Russian nuclear protocols, were you aware of this near miss and that fact that in 1983 a Russian officer at the cutting edge of Russian nuclear defences ignored protocol and did not report radar signals of incoming ICBMs up the chain of command 'guessing' correctly that it was a false alarm, probably the closest we have been to annihilation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident

There are always some good and reasonable people around, we just need them to be in the right places at the right time 

[Panda]

I wonder if the billions given to Ukraine by the UK Government will help those thousands upon thousands of disabled people and people with learning disabilities who prior to the war were treated like animals in incarceration in antiquated, dilapidated institutions by this supposedly caring country?

A country that, before the invasion were one of the most corrupt in Europe. Good old Ukraine.

[Herbert Anchovy]

There's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.

If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?

The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.

Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.

Steve - talking about Russian nuclear protocols, were you aware of this near miss and that fact that in 1983 a Russian officer at the cutting edge of Russian nuclear defences ignored protocol and did not report radar signals of incoming ICBMs up the chain of command 'guessing' correctly that it was a false alarm, probably the closest we have been to annihilation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident

There are always some good and reasonable people around, we just need them to be in the right places at the right time 

There was a documentary on Channel 4 about this incident a few years ago. The world was literally a whisker away from nuclear war. Absolutely terrifying just how close we came to catastrophe.

[drfchound]

There's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.

If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?

The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.

Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.

Steve - talking about Russian nuclear protocols, were you aware of this near miss and that fact that in 1983 a Russian officer at the cutting edge of Russian nuclear defences ignored protocol and did not report radar signals of incoming ICBMs up the chain of command 'guessing' correctly that it was a false alarm, probably the closest we have been to annihilation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident

There are always some good and reasonable people around, we just need them to be in the right places at the right time 

There was a documentary on Channel 4 about this incident a few years ago. The world was literally a whisker away from nuclear war. Absolutely terrifying just how close we came to catastrophe.

I saw that too HA.  It was a very interesting programme.

[BobG]

BRR: this article by Prof Wade at LSE is interesting. It gives the rationale for several of the points you have been making:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/

Different subject: I have a hazy memory of a time in the (early/mid?) 80's when the USSR became convinced that the USA and NATO had decided to attack. Quite unconsciously the west had given all the wrong signals. I think Mrs T. and Ronald Reagan had stoked the rhetorical fires. Without checking at this stupid o'clock I think the Soviet response was to launch a pre-emptive attack. I have Christmas in my head - but it could be fantasy. I can't remember why it never happened but the world came damn close that time too.

BobG

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bob.

Search "Able Archer".

[Colin C No.3]

That’s the risk you run ‘playing war games’ when all diplomatic relations with your greatest ‘adversary’ have broken down.

[BobG]

Thank you Billy!

Glad I didn't imagine it all...

Bob

[Bristol Red Rover]

BRR: this article by Prof Wade at LSE is interesting. It gives the rationale for several of the points you have been making:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/

Different subject: I have a hazy memory of a time in the (early/mid?) 80's when the USSR became convinced that the USA and NATO had decided to attack. Quite unconsciously the west had given all the wrong signals. I think Mrs T. and Ronald Reagan had stoked the rhetorical fires. Without checking at this stupid o'clock I think the Soviet response was to launch a pre-emptive attack. I have Christmas in my head - but it could be fantasy. I can't remember why it never happened but the world came damn close that time too.

BobG

Thanks for that link Bob. Pretty much how I see it,  though I'd say the US underestimated the downside of this strategy both short and long term.

If Russia remains fighting in Ukraine, this is going to cost the US a lot. Ultimately,  Russia has the manpower, and I think the economy to defeat Ukraine. It is also weakening the economies of the West. How far that will go or how significant that is we'll see, but I doubt the US calculations included that.

The China factor is v significant on a few levels, again time will show, and again,  I don't think the US has factored in that.

The biggie right now is if NATO allows Ukraine in. As it stands, I don't think the NATO process allows a country at war to join? It would be madness to allow it mainly as that would bring the nuke potential well into the centre of the table.

The US deliberately stirred and keeps on stiring this hornets nest, that is unforgivable. I believe Johnson played a significant part too.

Either way, Ukraine,  the pawn here, is screwed whatever happens.

For the record,  I'll say again, Russia is far from innocent, its been itching for an opportunity to absorb some or all of Ukraine since it lost it. But that is what the US played on and invited Russia to get involved.

[tyke1962]

BRR: this article by Prof Wade at LSE is interesting. It gives the rationale for several of the points you have been making:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/

Different subject: I have a hazy memory of a time in the (early/mid?) 80's when the USSR became convinced that the USA and NATO had decided to attack. Quite unconsciously the west had given all the wrong signals. I think Mrs T. and Ronald Reagan had stoked the rhetorical fires. Without checking at this stupid o'clock I think the Soviet response was to launch a pre-emptive attack. I have Christmas in my head - but it could be fantasy. I can't remember why it never happened but the world came damn close that time too.

BobG

Thanks for that link Bob. Pretty much how I see it,  though I'd say the US underestimated the downside of this strategy both short and long term.

If Russia remains fighting in Ukraine, this is going to cost the US a lot. Ultimately,  Russia has the manpower, and I think the economy to defeat Ukraine. It is also weakening the economies of the West. How far that will go or how significant that is we'll see, but I doubt the US calculations included that.

The China factor is v significant on a few levels, again time will show, and again,  I don't think the US has factored in that.

The biggie right now is if NATO allows Ukraine in. As it stands, I don't think the NATO process allows a country at war to join? It would be madness to allow it mainly as that would bring the nuke potential well into the centre of the table.

The US deliberately stirred and keeps on stiring this hornets nest, that is unforgivable. I believe Johnson played a significant part too.

Either way, Ukraine,  the pawn here, is screwed whatever happens.

For the record,  I'll say again, Russia is far from innocent, its been itching for an opportunity to absorb some or all of Ukraine since it lost it. But that is what the US played on and invited Russia to get involved.

The Ukrainian forces have this afternoon retaken the eastern city of Lyman .

5000 Russians have done one to escape getting trapped in the city before it was totally surrounded .

Going well isn't it for Russia ?

 

[Panda]

Depends on which side you get your propaganda from.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Reports coming in that the Russian defensive line north of Kherson has collapsed and the Ukrainian forces are forcing them South down the Dnipro river. If this is correct, it looks like the start of a huge encircling move around Kherson. Similar to what they've just done to retake Lyman, but on 5 times the scale.

[BobG]

I do wonder if Zelensky has made a huge mistake applying for expedited NATO membership right now. NATO can't admit Ukraine when the immediate consequence could easily be all out war with Russia. But refusing entry to Ukraine both hands Putin a huge propaganda victory, and, fractures the cozy relationship Ukraine currently has with the west. I keep thinking I must be missing something because it's hard to believe Zelensky could make a mistake as crass as that. But I'm buggered if I can see what I've missed. Anyone got better eyesight?

BobG

Later. Maybe the calculation is Ukraine Is given expedited membership and Russia then has to face the prospect of war with the entire West? Is it a ploy to force Russia to the negotiating table? And ensure future Ukrainian security?

[River Don]

In annexing East Ukraine Putin has knowingly set himself on a collision course with the west. But. He is doing it because he has a fundamental belief in the idea of escalation as a deterent. So he always escalates. We have to face him down. Come what may.

[wilts rover]

Reports that Ukranian Army have advanced c20k in Kherson towards Dudchany. If they retake that town they are then within striking distance of Chaplynka, a major logistics and supply hub for the southern Russian Army. Loose that and...

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1576644671530360833

[BillyStubbsTears]

20km in a day in a battleground as contested as that is almost unheard of. It's Russian milibloggers who are reporting this though, it's not Ukrainian propaganda. If this is real, it's only a matter of time till Kherson falls. So much for incorporation into Mother Russia.

[SydneyRover]

''BEIRUT (AP) — When the bulk cargo ship Laodicea docked in Lebanon last summer, Ukrainian diplomats said the vessel was carrying grain stolen by Russia and urged Lebanese officials to impound the ship.

Moscow called the allegation “false and baseless,” and Lebanon’s prosecutor general sided with the Kremlin and declared that the 10,000 tons of barley and wheat flour wasn’t stolen and allowed the ship to unload.

But an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline” has found the Laodicea, owned by Syria, is part of a sophisticated Russian-run smuggling operation that has used falsified manifests and seaborne subterfuge to steal Ukrainian grain worth at least $530 million — cash that has helped feed President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

AP used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to ports in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. Reporters reviewed shipping manifests, searched social media posts, and interviewed farmers, shippers and corporate officials to uncover the details of the massive smuggling operation''

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-lebanon-syria-87c3b6fea3f4c326003123b21aa78099?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_01

[BillyStubbsTears]

You want reasons why Putin's Russia has to be defeated.

Watch this.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1576126809993011205

That was the official celebration of the annexation of the Ukrainian oblasts.

Absolutely f**king radged.