Ukraine

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FukuyamaFrancis/status/1576814074750726144

Might be something.

Might be nothing.

But world-renown historians tend not to shoot from the lip without some substance.

I wonder if the imminent loss of Kherson is the critical piece removed in Putin's Jenga tower?

[BillyStubbsTears]

As someone says further down that Twitter thread, you lose a war two ways.

Gradually.

Then suddenly.

[Bristol Red Rover]

So far a lot of Zelensky's actions have appeared to succeed. The silence from the west about his desire to join NATO immediately is telling. He is pushing on top of pushing, and I suspect that is because he has been encouraged in that way by the US, Johnson in particular from the UK, and others. The desire from all those parties is to defeat Russia in Ukraine and strike a severe blow to weakening it. Hence encouraging Zelensky in his "Churchillian" leadership. I think he's over confident, and the appication to NATO shows that so very clearly.

The silence form the west on this is probably due to finding a way to placate him, keep him feeling buffed up, whilst giving him a firm but gentle reality check even if in the guise of *temporarilly* kept out of the club.

The problem with him pushing for this, apart from showing a lack of diplomacy, tact and understanding, is that Russia will now more likely aim for the whole of Ukraine. With increased manpower and armour, one option for Russia is to push more on multiple fronts - exactly what Ukraine has been doing in the same position of recent. This could include a very forceful assult in the west of Ukraine thus cutting off it's supply routes. It is likely it will involve a severe attack on infastructure especially energy supplies for this winter. But as ever we will see.

As for the west facing down Russia, we're talking about politicians and generals who have plush nuke bunkers. The not so unlikely cost of that is not worth the realistic results of grabbing Ukraine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remind me how that "increased Russian armour" think world again.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Remind me how that "increased Russian armour" think world again.

I'll try and interpret that. There is a lot of armour being transported to Crimea, Belarus and other areas.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The Ukrainian forces have this afternoon retaken the eastern city of Lyman .

5000 Russians have done one to escape getting trapped in the city before it was totally surrounded .

Going well isn't it for Russia ?

 

Somewhere more in the realm of 1 to 4k by most reasoned accounts. 6 to 20k Ukraines depending on chosen reports and how you count them. A general continued retreat till the modilised forces arrive on the field? We'll see.

This war is far from over.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remind me how that "increased Russian armour" think world again.

I'll try and interpret that. There is a lot of armour being transported to Crimea, Belarus and other areas.

Your source being?

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I've probably overdosed on Ukraine over the weekend. Lots of vids and news from inside and outside Russia from all sorts of sources.

Could be Western biased propaganda who knows, but it's looking like Russia is on the brink.

Putin is running out of generals to run the show. More generals have deserted their troops on the front line.

More tanks and hardware has been spotted being transported by train. Old rusty Post WW2 tanks and lorries.

1.5m sets of uniforms for soldiers are missing. Tents, beds, first aid kits, cold weather clothing  food and water appear  to be in short supply. Poor maintenance including lack of parts to keep machines moving, planes flying. Soldiers pleading to be saved and would rather surrender than fight. 

Corruption in the military and in Russian life in general is beginning to bite Putin in the arse! The irony.

[wilts rover]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FukuyamaFrancis/status/1576814074750726144

Might be something.

Might be nothing.

But world-renown historians tend not to shoot from the lip without some substance.

I wonder if the imminent loss of Kherson is the critical piece removed in Putin's Jenga tower?

Its not the population centres that Ukraine is targetting - its the logistic hubs and airfields. They will just go around Kherson because the know Russia can't defend it without supplies - and if there are no supply depots in the area the further they need to be transported and the more vulnerable they are.

[wilts rover]

The Ukrainian forces have this afternoon retaken the eastern city of Lyman .

5000 Russians have done one to escape getting trapped in the city before it was totally surrounded .

Going well isn't it for Russia ?

 

Somewhere more in the realm of 1 to 4k by most reasoned accounts. 6 to 20k Ukraines depending on chosen reports and how you count them. A general continued retreat till the modilised forces arrive on the field? We'll see.

This war is far from over.

This is not a retreat. We are just advancing in a different direction.

Major-General O P Smith after reversing the advance of the US 1st Marine Division agains higher orders but escaping from a Chinese ambush at the Battle of Chosin Reservoir 1950.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

More propaganda? Hilarious. Well it would be if we weren't for the unnecessary loss of human life.

"On Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attracted ridicule online after he admitted that Russia was still deciding which areas it had "annexed", suggesting that Moscow does not know where its self-declared borders are.

Mr Peskov claimed the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions were part of Russia, but said the Kremlin will "continue consultations with the population regarding the borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions".

[wilts rover]

So far a lot of Zelensky's actions have appeared to succeed. The silence from the west about his desire to join NATO immediately is telling. He is pushing on top of pushing, and I suspect that is because he has been encouraged in that way by the US, Johnson in particular from the UK, and others. The desire from all those parties is to defeat Russia in Ukraine and strike a severe blow to weakening it. Hence encouraging Zelensky in his "Churchillian" leadership. I think he's over confident, and the appication to NATO shows that so very clearly.

The silence form the west on this is probably due to finding a way to placate him, keep him feeling buffed up, whilst giving him a firm but gentle reality check even if in the guise of *temporarilly* kept out of the club.

The problem with him pushing for this, apart from showing a lack of diplomacy, tact and understanding, is that Russia will now more likely aim for the whole of Ukraine. With increased manpower and armour, one option for Russia is to push more on multiple fronts - exactly what Ukraine has been doing in the same position of recent. This could include a very forceful assult in the west of Ukraine thus cutting off it's supply routes. It is likely it will involve a severe attack on infastructure especially energy supplies for this winter. But as ever we will see.

As for the west facing down Russia, we're talking about politicians and generals who have plush nuke bunkers. The not so unlikely cost of that is not worth the realistic results of grabbing Ukraine.

Official: NATO secretary-general receives Ukraine’s bid for membership.

Ambassadors of NATO member states will discuss the application in Brussels, Ihor Zhovkva, a deputy head of the President's Office, said.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1577347319611236355

[Filo]

Battlefield nukes?

I wonder what his newly claimed Russian citizens would think of him if he nuked them and his newly claimed motherland?

[BobG]

He could nuke a Ukrainian held area. No problem inventing another excuse.

BobG

[Bristol Red Rover]

So far a lot of Zelensky's actions have appeared to succeed. The silence from the west about his desire to join NATO immediately is telling. He is pushing on top of pushing, and I suspect that is because he has been encouraged in that way by the US, Johnson in particular from the UK, and others. The desire from all those parties is to defeat Russia in Ukraine and strike a severe blow to weakening it. Hence encouraging Zelensky in his "Churchillian" leadership. I think he's over confident, and the appication to NATO shows that so very clearly.

The silence form the west on this is probably due to finding a way to placate him, keep him feeling buffed up, whilst giving him a firm but gentle reality check even if in the guise of *temporarilly* kept out of the club.

The problem with him pushing for this, apart from showing a lack of diplomacy, tact and understanding, is that Russia will now more likely aim for the whole of Ukraine. With increased manpower and armour, one option for Russia is to push more on multiple fronts - exactly what Ukraine has been doing in the same position of recent. This could include a very forceful assult in the west of Ukraine thus cutting off it's supply routes. It is likely it will involve a severe attack on infastructure especially energy supplies for this winter. But as ever we will see.

As for the west facing down Russia, we're talking about politicians and generals who have plush nuke bunkers. The not so unlikely cost of that is not worth the realistic results of grabbing Ukraine.

Official: NATO secretary-general receives Ukraine’s bid for membership.

Ambassadors of NATO member states will discuss the application in Brussels, Ihor Zhovkva, a deputy head of the President's Office, said.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1577347319611236355

"Hey Fritz,  Ukraine who are currently at war with Russia what to join us and receive help including a force made up of your guys to fight this country that,  according to our spies, are talking about using Nukes on our countries if we go in."
"your British humour! Pass me a hob nob please."

[Bristol Red Rover]

More propaganda? Hilarious. Well it would be if we weren't for the unnecessary loss of human life.

"On Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attracted ridicule online after he admitted that Russia was still deciding which areas it had "annexed", suggesting that Moscow does not know where its self-declared borders are.

Mr Peskov claimed the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions were part of Russia, but said the Kremlin will "continue consultations with the population regarding the borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions".

I wonder what the exact translation is? I suspect it included stating that the territory currently in Russian hands at midnight tonight is Russian. The areas of Northern Zaporizhia in Ukraine hands could be under discussion. Likewise the areas of Mykolaiv in Russian hands, and or the areas in Ukraine hands may be up for debate. Seems pretty straight forward. Guess we'll see.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The Ukrainian forces have this afternoon retaken the eastern city of Lyman .

5000 Russians have done one to escape getting trapped in the city before it was totally surrounded .

Going well isn't it for Russia ?

 

Somewhere more in the realm of 1 to 4k by most reasoned accounts. 6 to 20k Ukraines depending on chosen reports and how you count them. A general continued retreat till the modilised forces arrive on the field? We'll see.

This war is far from over.

This is not a retreat. We are just advancing in a different direction.

Major-General O P Smith after reversing the advance of the US 1st Marine Division agains higher orders but escaping from a Chinese ambush at the Battle of Chosin Reservoir 1950.

Many reasons why a retreat happens. How it plays out tactically in the immediate term, and strategically in the whole war.

Scraping the barrel with that eg you use. Maybe you have a quote from Napoleon about retreats?

[BobG]

Surely the words of General Smith offer a perfectly reasonable commentary on Russia's current pronouncements?

BobG

[wilts rover]

ISW: Ukraine continues to make simultaneous advances in Kherson, Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukraine's interdiction campaign is crippling Russian attempts to transfer additional ammunition, reserves, and mobilized men.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1577521897444892674

[Bristol Red Rover]

You're seriously passing off the ISW as non biased here? Not at all an organisation with US world domination at its centre?

[wilts rover]

The Ukrainian forces have this afternoon retaken the eastern city of Lyman .

5000 Russians have done one to escape getting trapped in the city before it was totally surrounded .

Going well isn't it for Russia ?

 

Somewhere more in the realm of 1 to 4k by most reasoned accounts. 6 to 20k Ukraines depending on chosen reports and how you count them. A general continued retreat till the modilised forces arrive on the field? We'll see.

This war is far from over.

This is not a retreat. We are just advancing in a different direction.

Major-General O P Smith after reversing the advance of the US 1st Marine Division agains higher orders but escaping from a Chinese ambush at the Battle of Chosin Reservoir 1950.

Many reasons why a retreat happens. How it plays out tactically in the immediate term, and strategically in the whole war.

Scraping the barrel with that eg you use. Maybe you have a quote from Napoleon about retreats?

How about Russian state TV then:

'When we retreat it means we're going forward'

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1577551493770747907

[selby]

  The constant probing down the flanks for a weakness and not facing up to the Russian forces where they are static and strong is giving the Russian forces problems and is opening them up to be attacked from directions behind the main forces exposing their supply lines.
  A much more fluid and faster way of warfare than the Russians are prepared for.
  If the Ukrainians had air supremacy this war would have been a massive route of the Russian ground forces.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Forbes are reporting that 700,000 people have left Russia since the announcement of mobilisation. On top of 400,000 who had left since the start of the war, before mobilisation.

[Colin C No.3]

The Russian General saying in effect the retreat of his forces is in fact an offensive manoeuvre reminds me of the time when Margaret Thatcher, on a live BBC news ‘call in’, during the Falklands War was asked about the sinking of the Argentinian warship The Belgrano.
The caller repeatedly said that The Belgrano was actually on a course away from the British Task Force when it was sunk by a British submarine.
Maggie insisted it was still a threat to the Task Force hence ‘the regrettable but necessary’ decision to engage the enemy.

I suppose if The Belgrano had continued on its course then Maggie was right because eventually it would have circumnavigated the globe & would then have been able to ‘sneak up’ on The Task Force from behind!

The Russians are clearly aware of such ‘opportunities’.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Forbes are reporting that 700,000 people have left Russia since the announcement of mobilisation. On top of 400,000 who had left since the start of the war, before mobilisation.

How many left Ukraine?

[Bristol Red Rover]

One issue with Russian forces compared to Ukraine at the moment is a massive outnumbering. This has been made worse by those who had their contracts extended by 6 months in Feb who are now choosing to leave the armed forces as they had planned to a while back. In the face of the attacks, Russia has had to reduce its front line length.

Ukraine is giving it all in battle right now as they know there has been a window with this, and the weather. Likely that the assaults, many of which were heavily attacked by Russian bombs and shells, have been very costly to Ukraine especially in their limited armour.

The next month will see little change in Russian forces, but the mud is likely to slow down Ukraine advances. After that, the Russian mobilised forces will begin to enter the battle. That's reportedly 300k plus 70k volunteers.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The Ukrainian forces have this afternoon retaken the eastern city of Lyman .

5000 Russians have done one to escape getting trapped in the city before it was totally surrounded .

Going well isn't it for Russia ?

 

Somewhere more in the realm of 1 to 4k by most reasoned accounts. 6 to 20k Ukraines depending on chosen reports and how you count them. A general continued retreat till the modilised forces arrive on the field? We'll see.

This war is far from over.

This is not a retreat. We are just advancing in a different direction.

Major-General O P Smith after reversing the advance of the US 1st Marine Division agains higher orders but escaping from a Chinese ambush at the Battle of Chosin Reservoir 1950.

Many reasons why a retreat happens. How it plays out tactically in the immediate term, and strategically in the whole war.

Scraping the barrel with that eg you use. Maybe you have a quote from Napoleon about retreats?

How about Russian state TV then:

'When we retreat it means we're going forward'

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1577551493770747907

Going forward for Russia is destroying Ukraine military. Going forward for Ukraine is taking territory. As you will will have noted from what he said, and the reports from all sides, Ukraine has long been on an offensive in Kherson and has been caught out in the open many many times, as well as pounded in their back lines. Their losses are huge. That is what he is saying. And particularly with the latest advance where the Ukraine got stuck in the mud.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You still swallowing this nonsense that Russia is systematically destroying the Ukranian forces?

And that the addition of 300,000 barely trained, unequipped and unsupplied amateurs to the front line is going to tip the balance, when the cream of Russia's professional soldiery as been routed?

Or have they been routed? Presumably you are sticking to the line that Kharkiv and Kherson have been two planned, strategic withdrawals?

[Dutch Uncle]

Forbes are reporting that 700,000 people have left Russia since the announcement of mobilisation. On top of 400,000 who had left since the start of the war, before mobilisation.

How many left Ukraine?

The millions who left Ukraine were mostly women and children leaving while bombs and missiles were hitting cities and Russia was taking territory. Most men stayed to fight.

The 700K leaving Russia are mostly men of call-up age, and they are not fleeing a country where houses and infrastructure are being damaged by a foreign power. They simply don't want to fight.

Not a useful comparison IMHO. 

[Bristol Red Rover]

Forbes are reporting that 700,000 people have left Russia since the announcement of mobilisation. On top of 400,000 who had left since the start of the war, before mobilisation.

How many left Ukraine?

The millions who left Ukraine were mostly women and children leaving while bombs and missiles were hitting cities and Russia was taking territory. Most men stayed to fight.

The 700K leaving Russia are mostly men of call-up age, and they are not fleeing a country where houses and infrastructure are being damaged by a foreign power. They simply don't want to fight.

Not a useful comparison IMHO. 

That's a bt vague. How many men between 18 and 50 left? 100k, 500k, more? You can be sure most of that age group who did leave left to avoid being dumped on a frontline with poor equipment, poor training etc etc, as well as simply not wanting to fight for reasons of self preservation and knowing who you were fighting for, ie not ordinary Ukraines.