Ukraine

[normal rules]

He obviously knows little about Western Europe’s weather over the last few decades.
When was the last time we had a truly harsh winter?
My camellia in the back garden started flowering a month ago. It’s not meant to do that till early spring.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The Russia Embassy in the UK said that sending Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine is pouring petrol on the fire, thats like the arsonist blaming the fire brigade for the fire!

And that's like saying the mob with torches are the fire brigade.

However you see it, putting a few Challengers and Leopards in there is going to do nothing but fan the flames of war, and increase death. Hardly a fire brigade is it?

The flames of War should never have been ignited by an illegal invasion, Russia could end the War right now by leaving and going back to their own Country, it’s that simple, the War is the sole responsibility of Russia

There was an agreement being negotiated before the invasion. Boris Johnson intervened putting a halt to this and the invasion happened. Ukraine chose that path. NATO/USA/UK, EU,  were fully behind fuelling a war,  Russia was up for a war too but was in negotiations as mentioned before Johnson said no. Not that he was anything more than an evil lying clown stooge - as anyone in the UK knows full well.

To see it in your way is like seeing the fire service as water.

And you have proof from sources other than the Russian propaganda machine?

Obviously not the full discussion, but as clear as you can hope for.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-21-february-2022

Help me out here cos I've had flu ad I'm not on top of my game.

In mid Feb 2022, Putin had amassed a couple of hundred thousand troops and several thousand tanks on the Ukraine border.

Putin had just (illegally under international law) recognised as independent, two regions of Ukraine that he had already had troops in for 8 years.

A few months ago, he had given a fanatical speech in which he denied that Ukraine had any right to exist as an independent state.

In the UK Govt report of the call that you've just pasted, these words appear, "The leaders agreed that the West needed to support Ukraine in the event of an invasion but should continue to pursue a diplomatic solution until the last possible second."

You appear to be telling us that Boris Johnson put a stop to the diplomatic process (posting those precise words as your evidence) and that Ukraine "chose" to be invaded.

I'm really struggling to join up the dots here. Can you fill in the gaps that are obviously clear to you, but which I'm having trouble with?

Minsk agreements

[Bristol Red Rover]

I wonder just how much longer Putin has.
Their country is losing billions every month in gdp.
The rich and powerful are seeing their amassed fortunes evaporate.
He has troops actively seeking surrender, some already have.
He is losing the support of those countries who would normally stand by him, leaving North Korea and Iran as lone advocates.
In sep 22 it was cited that Russia has enough money to fund the war for at least another 2 years. (Wilson enter.org) But what then?

Arguable about the Russian economy.
NATO getting ever more involved will increase the Russian public's support for the war. As far as I can see there's no sign of him losing popularity. More popular than Biden, more popular than Sunak.
China seems to be more on the side of Russia than it is on NATO's side.
Ukraine is losing many more troops and armour than Russia. Russia is gaining currently territory, and apart from the Kherson withdrawal and the Kharkiv retreat, has been gaining consistently though the main point is the destruction of Ukraine forces.
The war is unlukely to last 2 years.

[ncRover]

I wonder just how much longer Putin has.
Their country is losing billions every month in gdp.
The rich and powerful are seeing their amassed fortunes evaporate.
He has troops actively seeking surrender, some already have.
He is losing the support of those countries who would normally stand by him, leaving North Korea and Iran as lone advocates.
In sep 22 it was cited that Russia has enough money to fund the war for at least another 2 years. (Wilson enter.org) But what then?

Arguable about the Russian economy.
NATO getting ever more involved will increase the Russian public's support for the war. As far as I can see there's no sign of him losing popularity. More popular than Biden, more popular than Sunak.
China seems to be more on the side of Russia than it is on NATO's side.
Ukraine is losing many more troops and armour than Russia. Russia is gaining currently territory, and apart from the Kherson withdrawal and the Kharkiv retreat, has been gaining consistently though the main point is the destruction of Ukraine forces.
The war is unlukely to last 2 years.

How do you see it ending?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Russia Embassy in the UK said that sending Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine is pouring petrol on the fire, thats like the arsonist blaming the fire brigade for the fire!

And that's like saying the mob with torches are the fire brigade.

However you see it, putting a few Challengers and Leopards in there is going to do nothing but fan the flames of war, and increase death. Hardly a fire brigade is it?

The flames of War should never have been ignited by an illegal invasion, Russia could end the War right now by leaving and going back to their own Country, it’s that simple, the War is the sole responsibility of Russia

There was an agreement being negotiated before the invasion. Boris Johnson intervened putting a halt to this and the invasion happened. Ukraine chose that path. NATO/USA/UK, EU,  were fully behind fuelling a war,  Russia was up for a war too but was in negotiations as mentioned before Johnson said no. Not that he was anything more than an evil lying clown stooge - as anyone in the UK knows full well.

To see it in your way is like seeing the fire service as water.

And you have proof from sources other than the Russian propaganda machine?

Obviously not the full discussion, but as clear as you can hope for.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-21-february-2022

Help me out here cos I've had flu ad I'm not on top of my game.

In mid Feb 2022, Putin had amassed a couple of hundred thousand troops and several thousand tanks on the Ukraine border.

Putin had just (illegally under international law) recognised as independent, two regions of Ukraine that he had already had troops in for 8 years.

A few months ago, he had given a fanatical speech in which he denied that Ukraine had any right to exist as an independent state.

In the UK Govt report of the call that you've just pasted, these words appear, "The leaders agreed that the West needed to support Ukraine in the event of an invasion but should continue to pursue a diplomatic solution until the last possible second."

You appear to be telling us that Boris Johnson put a stop to the diplomatic process (posting those precise words as your evidence) and that Ukraine "chose" to be invaded.

I'm really struggling to join up the dots here. Can you fill in the gaps that are obviously clear to you, but which I'm having trouble with?

Minsk agreements

And?

YOU posted a link to a UK Govt statement which said they were still supporting diplomacy. The statement was made at a time when Putin had the thick end of a quarter of a million troops poised to invade Ukraine, and he'd just illegally recognised the independence of two parts of Ukraine where his troops had been fighting for 8 years.

Here are the bits I don't get. Why was the the breakdown of the Minsk negotiations the UK's fault? Why did the UK actions lead to war? And what on earth was there in that statement YOU posted to support that claim?

[Bristol Red Rover]

What do you think Johnson was instructed to say? "We'll be sending you all you need to beat the Ruskies,  100 billion should do it, just don't let on its a loan though. You can pay it back with land to us. "

As soon as it was clear there'd be a backing out from Minsk, after Johnson's interjection. It was either invasion or leave the Donbas to right wing Ukraine troops to do their will and have NATO swanning in. You know that was unacceptable to the Russians, as did Johnson. Cue proxy war.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Right.

I'm clearly REALLY struggling here so bear with me.

The Minsk 2 negotiations were about trying to find a mutually acceptable solution to the previous Russian invasion of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

While those negotiations were going on, Putin mobilised 200,000 soldiers and several thousand tanks. And recognised LPR and DPR as independent states. And ranted that Ukraine had no right to exist.

Give me a minute cos I'm trying to get this next step...It was the UK's fault that the negotiations collapse and Russia launched a full invasion?

Have I got that right? Only, it seems, like...f**king mad. 

[Bristol Red Rover]

I wonder just how much longer Putin has.
Their country is losing billions every month in gdp.
The rich and powerful are seeing their amassed fortunes evaporate.
He has troops actively seeking surrender, some already have.
He is losing the support of those countries who would normally stand by him, leaving North Korea and Iran as lone advocates.
In sep 22 it was cited that Russia has enough money to fund the war for at least another 2 years. (Wilson enter.org) But what then?

Arguable about the Russian economy.
NATO getting ever more involved will increase the Russian public's support for the war. As far as I can see there's no sign of him losing popularity. More popular than Biden, more popular than Sunak.
China seems to be more on the side of Russia than it is on NATO's side.
Ukraine is losing many more troops and armour than Russia. Russia is gaining currently territory, and apart from the Kherson withdrawal and the Kharkiv retreat, has been gaining consistently though the main point is the destruction of Ukraine forces.
The war is unlukely to last 2 years.

How do you see it ending?

I can't see NATO holding back Russia without upping the stakes much much further, and the cost of that will be immense.

Tricky to say, but I think Russia will take at least half of old Ukraine. I can't see them wanting the North West parts but necessity may dictate that.

I think there's likely to be some big battles over the Spring and Summer but with the troop and armour losses for Ukraine there is a point where they'll capitulate. Long term, it could be that NATO/US will fund smaller scale skirmishes and mini offences if there is any old Ukraine left. That would be a reason for Russia to take the lot?

What's your take on the future there?

[Bristol Red Rover]

Right.

I'm clearly REALLY struggling here so bear with me.

The Minsk 2 negotiations were about trying to find a mutually acceptable solution to the previous Russian invasion of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

While those negotiations were going on, Putin mobilised 200,000 soldiers and several thousand tanks. And recognised LPR and DPR as independent states. And ranted that Ukraine had no right to exist.

Give me a minute cos I'm trying to get this next step...It was the UK's fault that the negotiations collapse and Russia launched a full invasion?

Have I got that right? Only, it seems, like...f**king mad. 

UK, USA, "NATO", but yes. The basic thrust of Minsk is out there to see. Ukraine was negotiating until Johnson delivered the message from his puppet masters.

[wilts rover]

What do you think Johnson was instructed to say? "We'll be sending you all you need to beat the Ruskies,  100 billion should do it, just don't let on its a loan though. You can pay it back with land to us. "

As soon as it was clear there'd be a backing out from Minsk, after Johnson's interjection. It was either invasion or leave the Donbas to right wing Ukraine troops to do their will and have NATO swanning in. You know that was unacceptable to the Russians, as did Johnson. Cue proxy war.

Johnson was funded by the Russians. He put one of them in the house of Lords. He only supported Ukraine after the EU began to sanction the oligarchs - and to distract from partygate.

The right wing dictatorial Russian goverment broke Minsk with an illegal invasion in 2014. When they blew civilian aircraft out of the sky. Then compounded their fascist ruler's imperial fantasy of a Greater Russia by invading an independent country in February 2022. An action that up until the first troops moved across the border he insisted he had no intention of doing and talk that he would was 'western propoganda'.

[wilts rover]

What's your take on the future there?

Only Putin can end the invasion. And who would trust him to hold to any negotiated settlement.

Ukraine wont surrender. Or they will be murdered and their families raped and abused.

So Putin either has to win, occupy the whole of Ukraine & wipe out the Ukrainian population - or Ukraine holds him up and he is deposed in a coup.

[normal rules]

I still think as this war drags on, with all the loss of life and property, that the chance of a peace deal being brokered could still be possible. A bit like the Dayton accord that was drawn up in Bosnia.

In the 2001 Ukrainian census, 8,334,100 identified themselves as ethnic Russians (17.3% of the population of Ukraine).

Zelensky himself will have to concede land at some point in favour of life.
I cannot see any other outcome. I’m not saying it’s right. I’m just saying it’s the only sensible compromise. Forget Putin. After him, a Russia who retreats and yields everything gained so far will cease to be recognised on the global military stage as they once were. So I can never see that happening either.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BRR.
So you're just going to ignore the three things I pointed out. No surprise there.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is superb analysis of the utter disaster that Putin has led Russia into.

https://www.ft.com/content/42367891-bde7-4770-95f4-460d0762215b?sharetype=blocked

No possible victory. Just different degrees of losses and a historic weakening of Russia for decades to come.

[Bristol Red Rover]

BRR.
So you're just going to ignore the three things I pointed out. No surprise there.

The Russian military was sitting there. No agreement caused the invasion, instantly.
Or maybe you were making some other point?

[Bristol Red Rover]

This is superb analysis of the utter disaster that Putin has led Russia into.

https://www.ft.com/content/42367891-bde7-4770-95f4-460d0762215b?sharetype=blocked

No possible victory. Just different degrees of losses and a historic weakening of Russia for decades to come.

The FT.  Its like the Telegraph publishing an article on the demise of the Labour Party,  whilst the Tories are running into the cuckoo nest. Politics and propaganda. You'll be citing the DM next old boy.

So far, the west, no doubt the FT too, and probably you, have predicted the demise of Russians military - no shells, no tanks, no missiles, troops surrendering - all very transparent b*llocks innit, though many swallow it as much as they swallow the rest of the establishment media trough. How much weaker is the west from all this? Economically, militarily, and geo politically? Egg on their chin too.

[mushRTID]

Putin to make a big announcement today apparently.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BRR.
So you're just going to ignore the three things I pointed out. No surprise there.

The Russian military was sitting there. No agreement caused the invasion, instantly.
Or maybe you were making some other point?

Oh! Silly me! Of course, the Russian army was just siting there!

And Putin's illegal recognition of the independence of LPR and DPR was intended as a friendly gesture to Ukraine, rather than a "f**k you" to the Minsk 2 negotiations.

And when Putin ranted that Ukraine had no historic right to exist, he was just joshing.

It all makes sense now. I can't understand why I didn't see it before.

[Filo]

Putin to make a big announcement today apparently.

Probably extending the age range for conscription

[Colin C No.3]

Putin to make a big announcement today apparently.

Probably extending the age range for conscription

Anyone still alive who fought in WW11 to report to their nearest military base immediately……& bring a gun.

[Filo]

Putin to make a big announcement today apparently.

Probably extending the age range for conscription

Anyone still alive who fought in WW11 to report to their nearest military base immediately……& bring a gun.

If you haven’t got a gun, it doesn’t matter you’re going to die anyeay

[Bristol Red Rover]

BRR.
So you're just going to ignore the three things I pointed out. No surprise there.

The Russian military was sitting there. No agreement caused the invasion, instantly.
Or maybe you were making some other point?

Oh! Silly me! Of course, the Russian army was just siting there!

And Putin's illegal recognition of the independence of LPR and DPR was intended as a friendly gesture to Ukraine, rather than a "f**k you" to the Minsk 2 negotiations.

And when Putin ranted that Ukraine had no historic right to exist, he was just joshing.

It all makes sense now. I can't understand why I didn't see it before.

Remember Johnson had visited Zelensky not long before then. It would have been more likely that visit and discussion that turned Ukraine from negotiations towards a war footing.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aaaannnnddd once again you ignore the three things I've repeated a dozen times.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Whereas you reply to everything? 

Spit it out, and be clear with asking a question or highlighting your issue. Not like you to hold back is it.

Meanwhile, do go back and reply to all my points 

[BillyStubbsTears]

You haven't made a single point worth addressing. You just dribble out the Kremlin line unfiltered.

You obsess over a handful of mistakes early in the war when Ukrainian front line forces hit civilian areas in Donbas with misdirected mortars, yet you haven't a word of condemnation for months and months of deliberate, prolonged Russian attacks on civilian targets hundreds of miles from the front. .

You are so twisted by your obsession that NATO, the EU and the West in general are evil, that you cannot see the most egregious imperialistic war of aggression for what it is.

You ignore the unquestionable evidence that Putin CHOSE this war because he thought it would result in a rapid victory and a step towards his Greater Russia dream.

I respond to you simply to point out the stupidity of the stances that your ideology takes you to. I've no interest in debating with you. 

[ncRover]

I wonder just how much longer Putin has.
Their country is losing billions every month in gdp.
The rich and powerful are seeing their amassed fortunes evaporate.
He has troops actively seeking surrender, some already have.
He is losing the support of those countries who would normally stand by him, leaving North Korea and Iran as lone advocates.
In sep 22 it was cited that Russia has enough money to fund the war for at least another 2 years. (Wilson enter.org) But what then?

Arguable about the Russian economy.
NATO getting ever more involved will increase the Russian public's support for the war. As far as I can see there's no sign of him losing popularity. More popular than Biden, more popular than Sunak.
China seems to be more on the side of Russia than it is on NATO's side.
Ukraine is losing many more troops and armour than Russia. Russia is gaining currently territory, and apart from the Kherson withdrawal and the Kharkiv retreat, has been gaining consistently though the main point is the destruction of Ukraine forces.
The war is unlukely to last 2 years.

How do you see it ending?

I can't see NATO holding back Russia without upping the stakes much much further, and the cost of that will be immense.

Tricky to say, but I think Russia will take at least half of old Ukraine. I can't see them wanting the North West parts but necessity may dictate that.

I think there's likely to be some big battles over the Spring and Summer but with the troop and armour losses for Ukraine there is a point where they'll capitulate. Long term, it could be that NATO/US will fund smaller scale skirmishes and mini offences if there is any old Ukraine left. That would be a reason for Russia to take the lot?

What's your take on the future there?

I think the Russian state is doomed to fail now. We are just seeing a protraction of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The collapse of a large, sparsely populated, cold, barren, economically-isolated, totalitarian nation. A nation with a physically and mentally ill 70 year old man at the helm. One that cannot advance as no new ideas or progress is made for its people’s fear of speaking or acting out of turn.

I think they have invaded Ukraine to stop themselves getting weaker as opposed to the idea of a Greater Russia. If Russia were doing so well, they wouldn’t have had to invade a country with advantageous geography (flat, fertile, by the Black Sea, warmer). Also remember that their main train route in to Crimea got blown.

The decline will be accelerated once hundreds of thousands more young Russian men don’t return home to their families. Not to mention the knock effect this has on their demographics and subsequent population decline.

But this war will drag on and on I think, sadly.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nc

That article I posted last night briefly touched on the tragedy of Russia.

It is a middling sized economic power
(about on a par with Canada, Iran and Brazil) that has a massively oversized opinion of its own historical importance. Plus 7000 nukes.

The sensible approach for Russia over recent decades would have been to accept its role as a medium sized power and integrate itself with the world. The way Germany and France and Japan did. (And the way Britain partly did.)

Instead, run by thugs and crooks, they have clung to the idea that they are special. Historically destined to dominate their region.

A myth, propagated by bas**rds and clung to by a cowed, depressed populace.

It is such a tragedy. For Russia as much as for the peoples they lashed out at, from Grozny through Georgia and Aleppo, to Mariupol, while trying to enforce this poisonous idea of themselves as a Great Power.

[Nudga]

Why don't Presidents fight the war?
Why do they always send the poor?

BYOB.

[SydneyRover]

This is quite something ......

''Bulgaria secretly supplied Ukraine fuel and ammunition in early months of war
Former PM tells of crucial operation, which was launched covertly due to pro-Russia sympathies in political class''

''Bulgaria, one of the poorest EU members and long perceived as pro-Moscow, helped Ukraine survive Russia’s early onslaught by secretly supplying it with large amounts of desperately needed diesel and ammunition, the politicians responsible have said''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/18/bulgaria-secretly-supplied-ukraine-fuel-ammunition-first-months-war-russia

[Bristol Red Rover]

You haven't made a single point worth addressing. You just dribble out the Kremlin line unfiltered.

You obsess over a handful of mistakes early in the war when Ukrainian front line forces hit civilian areas in Donbas with misdirected mortars, yet you haven't a word of condemnation for months and months of deliberate, prolonged Russian attacks on civilian targets hundreds of miles from the front. .

You are so twisted by your obsession that NATO, the EU and the West in general are evil, that you cannot see the most egregious imperialistic war of aggression for what it is.

You ignore the unquestionable evidence that Putin CHOSE this war because he thought it would result in a rapid victory and a step towards his Greater Russia dream.

I respond to you simply to point out the stupidity of the stances that your ideology takes you to. I've no interest in debating with you. 

You've said that "I'm not debating with you" , and generally revert to immature insults, several times, yet continue with your attempts at debating endlessly, pushing your fixated pro USA angle.

Notable that you here outrightly deny Ukraines continued shelling of Donetsk,  many civilians killed even over the past week. What are they targeting? I know Russians are not targeting civilians, but sometimes their missiles may be inaccurate,  sometimes they are hit by Ukraine air defence - though that is progressively less so due to the progressive loss of their systems.

Unlike you, I condem all war, all actions by elites who scam and con the masses into sacrificing their lives, and taking others lives, for the benefit of mafia like thugs. I despise all power elites. You just don't like the evil Klingons. It's like a game of goodies and baddies to you. They're all sick.

Ive said the above endlessly but you evidently can't comprehend, or can't read, and most definitely dress everything you do consume in your rigid black and white pre conceived constructs.