Ukraine

[Bristol Red Rover]

NR I was referring to a ground offensive attack with the aim of taking some Russian territory, not strikes against military airbases or critical supply bridges which can be seen as a measure taken for defensive reasons

Ok , let’s wait and see what happens when British as90 are bombarding Russian logistics over the border on a regular basis.
There will be a tipping point in future when western weapons will overcome anything conventional Russia respond with. Collectively NATO can bring a lot more to bear than Russia. It’s a simple numbers game. Providing enough Ukrainians troops can survive.
At that point Putin will be cornered. On the verge of actual military defeat. Pushed back into his own land. A wounded animal. Pounded by western weaponry.
This will happen.
And if he is still alive and in power, then at this point, we should all get very concerned.

Theoretically that could happen. To get there, NATO countries would need to weaken their own forces below their effectiveness. They would also need to increase production of so many things that is practically impossible in less than three years.

The current loans and gifts of aid are not keeping up with Ukraine losses, eg the artillery shells aren't enough to keep up even the 1/7 firepower ratio there. The promised increased production will take years to get to the level of resupplying - the US said that. NATO can't produce enough.

[BillyStubbsTears]

9 European nations have promised Ukraine more support after meeting on Thursday in Estonia.

UK - 600 Brimstone missiles.
Denmark - 19 French made Caesar self propelled howitzer cannons.
Estonia - howitzers, ammunition, support vehicles & anti-tank grenade launchers.
Latvia - Stinger air-defence systems, two helicopters & drones.
Lithuania - anti-air craft guns & two helicopters.
Poland - S60 anti-aircraft guns with 70,000 pieces of ammunition.
Czech Republic - produce further large calibre ammunition, howitzers & APC’s.

Once Germany sends (& it will) its Leopard tanks to Ukraine the Russians will be pushed out of Ukraine & Putin will ‘disappear’.

That is not going to make one jot of a difference to the outcome.

Apart from the numbers there being barely significant, Ukraine is increasingly looking like Steptoandsonia with a hotpotch of mainly cast off equipment, with troops being barely trained in their use, where logistic nightmares of maintenance and co-ordination create a situation where these gifts/loans will just as likely set them back as give any benefit.

I'm beginning to think you actually do believe this.

Jesus wept.

[ncRover]

9 European nations have promised Ukraine more support after meeting on Thursday in Estonia.

UK - 600 Brimstone missiles.
Denmark - 19 French made Caesar self propelled howitzer cannons.
Estonia - howitzers, ammunition, support vehicles & anti-tank grenade launchers.
Latvia - Stinger air-defence systems, two helicopters & drones.
Lithuania - anti-air craft guns & two helicopters.
Poland - S60 anti-aircraft guns with 70,000 pieces of ammunition.
Czech Republic - produce further large calibre ammunition, howitzers & APC’s.

Once Germany sends (& it will) its Leopard tanks to Ukraine the Russians will be pushed out of Ukraine & Putin will ‘disappear’.

That is not going to make one jot of a difference to the outcome.

Apart from the numbers there being barely significant, Ukraine is increasingly looking like Steptoandsonia with a hotpotch of mainly cast off equipment, with troops being barely trained in their use, where logistic nightmares of maintenance and co-ordination create a situation where these gifts/loans will just as likely set them back as give any benefit.

I'm beginning to think you actually do believe this.

Jesus wept.

As long as Ukraine has Western allies, there is no possible scenario in which Russian troops are better equipped.

Russians are historically poorly equipped and just throw bodies at it.

[wilts rover]

NR I was referring to a ground offensive attack with the aim of taking some Russian territory, not strikes against military airbases or critical supply bridges which can be seen as a measure taken for defensive reasons

Ok , let’s wait and see what happens when British as90 are bombarding Russian logistics over the border on a regular basis.
There will be a tipping point in future when western weapons will overcome anything conventional Russia respond with. Collectively NATO can bring a lot more to bear than Russia. It’s a simple numbers game. Providing enough Ukrainians troops can survive.
At that point Putin will be cornered. On the verge of actual military defeat. Pushed back into his own land. A wounded animal. Pounded by western weaponry.
This will happen.
And if he is still alive and in power, then at this point, we should all get very concerned.

Theoretically that could happen. To get there, NATO countries would need to weaken their own forces below their effectiveness. They would also need to increase production of so many things that is practically impossible in less than three years.

The current loans and gifts of aid are not keeping up with Ukraine losses, eg the artillery shells aren't enough to keep up even the 1/7 firepower ratio there. The promised increased production will take years to get to the level of resupplying - the US said that. NATO can't produce enough.

That's not true as I posted at the time. The US can easily supply the munitions but it would take years to re-supply the US reserve stocks at the current rate - which is why they agreeded $ billions extra to speed up production at the end of last year.

If you are going to post total rubbish - you had best check it first.

[Dutch Uncle]

NR I was referring to a ground offensive attack with the aim of taking some Russian territory, not strikes against military airbases or critical supply bridges which can be seen as a measure taken for defensive reasons

Ok , let’s wait and see what happens when British as90 are bombarding Russian logistics over the border on a regular basis.
There will be a tipping point in future when western weapons will overcome anything conventional Russia respond with. Collectively NATO can bring a lot more to bear than Russia. It’s a simple numbers game. Providing enough Ukrainians troops can survive.
At that point Putin will be cornered. On the verge of actual military defeat. Pushed back into his own land. A wounded animal. Pounded by western weaponry.
This will happen.
And if he is still alive and in power, then at this point, we should all get very concerned.

NR, I think that has been covered very well by BST's post below mine that I agreed with. Apologies that my initial reply was rapid and not detailed enough. I would be fairly sure that donor nations and NATO will be insisting that none of the weapons supplied by those donor nations be used on Russian soil, otherwise the flow of resupply will stop. Ukraine's own limited but non-zero capability to launch minor attacks into Russia is their own decision and IMHO as long as it can be seen as a direct measure to reduce Russia's military own operations in Ukraine (as  opposed to hitting hospitals, schools, energy infrastructure, civilian populations etc) there will not be many calls for them to stop.

Your general arguments about where this might lead in terms of escalation have been there from the moment Putin ordered the attack, and as with Crimea, if he had been rapidly successful IMHO he would have kept on looking further west, probably Transnistria next.       

[SydneyRover]

Wouldn't it make sense for those countries with the German built tank to agree to send them so as to simplify logistics and the UK send other arms?

[BillyStubbsTears]

DU.

I don't think there's any doubt that Putin would have rolled his tanks into Transnistria if Ukraine had been left defenceless. The question is, what would he have done next.

I think he'd have played precisely the Ukraine technique on the Baltics.

Encourage fighting by ethnic Russians.
 Supports them with arms and deniable Spetsnatz forces. And if NATO didn't hold the line there, go fully in and invade.

The wilful naivety of those who think Putin would have stopped when he'd brought Ukraine to heel would be almost touching if it wasn't so dangerous.

[Dutch Uncle]

Exactly BST, probably starting with Lithuania and playing the issue of access to
Kaliningrad

[Bristol Red Rover]

NR I was referring to a ground offensive attack with the aim of taking some Russian territory, not strikes against military airbases or critical supply bridges which can be seen as a measure taken for defensive reasons

Ok , let’s wait and see what happens when British as90 are bombarding Russian logistics over the border on a regular basis.
There will be a tipping point in future when western weapons will overcome anything conventional Russia respond with. Collectively NATO can bring a lot more to bear than Russia. It’s a simple numbers game. Providing enough Ukrainians troops can survive.
At that point Putin will be cornered. On the verge of actual military defeat. Pushed back into his own land. A wounded animal. Pounded by western weaponry.
This will happen.
And if he is still alive and in power, then at this point, we should all get very concerned.

Theoretically that could happen. To get there, NATO countries would need to weaken their own forces below their effectiveness. They would also need to increase production of so many things that is practically impossible in less than three years.

The current loans and gifts of aid are not keeping up with Ukraine losses, eg the artillery shells aren't enough to keep up even the 1/7 firepower ratio there. The promised increased production will take years to get to the level of resupplying - the US said that. NATO can't produce enough.

That's not true as I posted at the time. The US can easily supply the munitions but it would take years to re-supply the US reserve stocks at the current rate - which is why they agreeded $ billions extra to speed up production at the end of last year.

If you are going to post total rubbish - you had best check it first.

The speeding up will take a long time, the article said three years. The US can't risk sending much of its reserves - eg Taiwan.

[Bristol Red Rover]

So far it's fairly clear that it's Ukraine throwing bodies at this. Russia has lost a lot, Ukraine more. Russia has vastly superior firepower and armour, that will tell in terms of troop losses. Ukraine losses in Bahkmut are very high, as reported by many sources on both sides.

The hotchpotch of aid as I said doesn't lend itself well to logistics of ammunition and repairs, made worse by largely having to go to Poland for fixing.

I think Ukraine has spoken about mobilising an extra 100k, Russia is likely to issue another round of mobilisation, possibly 500k.

Currently Russia is advancing on at least 40‰ of the frontline, Ukraine advancing nowhere. How come?

[BillyStubbsTears]

"Currently Russia is advancing on at least 90‰ of the frontline."

You are truly living on another planet.

Russia (more specifically, Wagner) has made very limited advances around Bakhmut. Everywhere else, the front line is stable throughout the winter, after huge advances by the Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Kherson regions throughout the autumn.

Where on earth do you get your information from? Actually, no need to answer that.

[ncRover]

Exactly BST, probably starting with Lithuania and playing the issue of access to
Kaliningrad

Most likely.

Here’s an article from before the invasion

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/17/1065111430/russia-demands-ukraine-and-other-ex-soviet-republics-be-barred-from-joining-nato

Perhaps countries want to seek security because the horrors of soviet rule are still in living memory for them. Rather than NATO being some sort of imperialist force.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This piece has got to the point of Russian anger at NATO expansion.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/13/putin-russia-war-ukraine-rhetoric-history/

It's nothing to do with Russia worrying about NATO invading Russia.

The anger is because Russia knows that once NATO has embraced a country, Russia can no longer threaten to invade them.

It's nothing to do with Russia being existentially threatened. It's about them having their nasty f**king balls cut off.

[Filo]

Every time they see more advanced weapons being delivered, they go on a rant and chuck more bombs at it, they are worried

[ravenrover]

Lets see if they carry out their threats to Germany, NATO on standby

[Bristol Red Rover]

Every time they see more advanced weapons being delivered, they go on a rant and chuck more bombs at it, they are worried

Yep I heard that as an explanation of the missile attacks yesterday by all the mainstream news services. However, Russia does these attacks every week or so, has done for some time, so no change there. But sure, go with the childlike story if it helps you.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Lets see if they carry out their threats to Germany, NATO on standby

The point they made was that they feel it legitimises attacks on Germany. To think they are going to do that is probably daft. It also emphasises that Germany is an enemy, good for spinning things for the home audience.

[Bristol Red Rover]

This piece has got to the point of Russian anger at NATO expansion.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/13/putin-russia-war-ukraine-rhetoric-history/

It's nothing to do with Russia worrying about NATO invading Russia.

The anger is because Russia knows that once NATO has embraced a country, Russia can no longer threaten to invade them.

It's nothing to do with Russia being existentially threatened. It's about them having their nasty f**king balls cut off.

So reactionary.

[Filo]

Every time they see more advanced weapons being delivered, they go on a rant and chuck more bombs at it, they are worried

Yep I heard that as an explanation of the missile attacks yesterday by all the mainstream news services. However, Russia does these attacks every week or so, has done for some time, so no change there. But sure, go with the childlike story if it helps you.

They do it in reaction to countries delivering weapons, they spin as esculating the war, they know full well they could de esculate in a second by going home within their own borders, they rant like a spoiled child blaming everyone else for the War when they are the only ones to blame, Putin will be dead by the end of this year is my opinion

[i_ateallthepies]

I so much hope you're right on that, Filo.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Every time they see more advanced weapons being delivered, they go on a rant and chuck more bombs at it, they are worried

Yep I heard that as an explanation of the missile attacks yesterday by all the mainstream news services. However, Russia does these attacks every week or so, has done for some time, so no change there. But sure, go with the childlike story if it helps you.

They do it in reaction to countries delivering weapons, they spin as esculating the war, they know full well they could de esculate in a second by going home within their own borders, they rant like a spoiled child blaming everyone else for the War when they are the only ones to blame, Putin will be dead by the end of this year is my opinion

Of course Russia threaten the west and Ukraine as the west pours more and more resources into the war. It's talk. That doesn't mean the regular missile and drone attacks on military targets are related to that. Possibly occasionally the volume of attacks are increased, like when the Crimea Bridge was attacked.

The BBC and western news spin the line that the missile attacks are related to the tanks so that the western populations think that Russia is upset over the tanks, scared even. The deliveries, when they finally arrive, won't change much at all, the numbers are far too low, plus there aren't Ukraines who will be fully trained in their use.

[BobG]

It's simple. Go home.

BobG

[normal rules]

The us are now going to provide long range missiles capable of hitting targets 150km away.
I hope Ukraine can keep these from landing inside Russia.
It just keeps escalating.

[Nudga]

77th Brigade Tobias Elwood calls for the UK to get directly involved in the conflict and face up Russia.
They actually want WW3 don't they

[normal rules]

The end of this month will be very telling. If Russia are planning a massive offensive with half a million troops ( and I use the term troops loosely) and it fails as I suspect it will, then Putin is backed into the proverbial corner.

[scawsby steve]

The end of this month will be very telling. If Russia are planning a massive offensive with half a million troops ( and I use the term troops loosely) and it fails as I suspect it will, then Putin is backed into the proverbial corner.

Don't worry about Putin, NR. If he fails, he'll be removed.

[normal rules]

It’s the bit between failure and removal that worries me.

[scawsby steve]

It’s the bit between failure and removal that worries me.

If you're talking about nukes, NR, I don't think his generals would obey him in the implementation of it all. They've all got families, and they know that NATO countries have all got their nukes pointed at Russia right now.

Russia would be obliterated in less than 30 seconds. Putin might be a tyrant, but he's not stupid, and he's also one of the richest men in the world, who loves his lavish lifestyle.

He won't commit suicide.

[wilts rover]

It’s the bit between failure and removal that worries me.

If he succeeds he will control much of the world's food supplies and a good proportion of natural resources. That should worry you more.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The us are now going to provide long range missiles capable of hitting targets 150km away.
I hope Ukraine can keep these from landing inside Russia.
It just keeps escalating.

Thing is, like much of the promised aid (loans) from the US, it will be a while before it arrives, probs 9 months from US reports I read.