Ukraine

[Bristol Red Rover]

The end of this month will be very telling. If Russia are planning a massive offensive with half a million troops ( and I use the term troops loosely) and it fails as I suspect it will, then Putin is backed into the proverbial corner.

Unless Ukraine has something extra special in reserve, a Russian failure is looking progressively less likely. There appears to be an injection of about 30k Russians in the Creminia area which has pushed the Ukraine's back. They had already seemed to stop their offensive there by moving some of their bettet battalions down to Uglidar on the southern Donbas front. Nowhere is Ukraine making any headway, and Russia is inching forwards, tho Ukraine has by all accounts - ie not just Russia - taken very heavy casualties over recent times.

[wilts rover]

The end of this month will be very telling. If Russia are planning a massive offensive with half a million troops ( and I use the term troops loosely) and it fails as I suspect it will, then Putin is backed into the proverbial corner.

Unless Ukraine has something extra special in reserve, a Russian failure is looking progressively less likely. There appears to be an injection of about 30k Russians in the Creminia area which has pushed the Ukraine's back. They had already seemed to stop their offensive there by moving some of their bettet battalions down to Uglidar on the southern Donbas front. Nowhere is Ukraine making any headway, and Russia is inching forwards, tho Ukraine has by all accounts - ie not just Russia - taken very heavy casualties over recent times.

30k conscripts who have no idea why they are invading another country against people fighting for their and their families lives. I've read this book before.

[Bristol Red Rover]

The end of this month will be very telling. If Russia are planning a massive offensive with half a million troops ( and I use the term troops loosely) and it fails as I suspect it will, then Putin is backed into the proverbial corner.

Unless Ukraine has something extra special in reserve, a Russian failure is looking progressively less likely. There appears to be an injection of about 30k Russians in the Creminia area which has pushed the Ukraine's back. They had already seemed to stop their offensive there by moving some of their bettet battalions down to Uglidar on the southern Donbas front. Nowhere is Ukraine making any headway, and Russia is inching forwards, tho Ukraine has by all accounts - ie not just Russia - taken very heavy casualties over recent times.

30k conscripts who have no idea why they are invading another country against people fighting for their and their families lives. I've read this book before.

That's a weird conclusion, but then you are confined to gross misinformation from the likes of the BBC, and the Guardian - or maybe you get it from the Sun these days? Or some comic book? Or from Zelensky, or his chumly chum Johnson?

Ad a minimum in terms of training and experience, as with all the recent conscripts apart from some of the prisoners with Wagner, it's 30k troops who've already done military service and had another 3 to 6 months training, and quite probs they're in anongst battle trained troops anyway, or maybe it is just battle trained troops who'd been resting?

[Bristol Red Rover]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64593488

Zelensky claims Russian missiles flew over Romanian (NATO country) airspace. Romania then denies this. Zelensky persists in insisting they did. Maybe he is right. Maybe Romania isn't that bothered and doesn't want to push towards what would be a greater NATO involvement (I doubt that is true). Or maybe Zelensky is desperate and doesn't care about how this all can escalate from fake claims - remember the Uke air defence missile drama egged on as a Russian attack as a tractor was struck in Poland.

Whilst he may or may not be someone who uses cocaine, he displays all the insanity of a cocaine addict as anyone who knows people that damaged would know. NATO members will be aware of his character, and will be partly why they are loathe to donate, sell or loan arms that can be used beyond what is "sensibly" required.

[ravenrover]

Oh deary deary me!

[wilts rover]

And yet again he ignores Russia latest threats & build up.

Why?

[Bristol Red Rover]

Not ignoring anything. Well aware Russia will take what it wants, moreso as NATO pushes harder - the evidence is there to see. Oh wait, its not what the BBC are saying, must be wrong then.

And Ukraine suffers more and more in the process. Its sick, but then so obvious what the consequences are when creating and feeding a proxy war like this.

What threats are you talking about? Threats of eliminating Ukraine as a military power? That's been the case from when Johnson delivered his  Beano version of a Churchilian order to "never surrender" when Ukraine was in the process of negotiation around Donbas and NATO/EU membership. Many died from that point.

[Sprotyrover]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64593488

Zelensky claims Russian missiles flew over Romanian (NATO country) airspace. Romania then denies this. Zelensky persists in insisting they did. Maybe he is right. Maybe Romania isn't that bothered and doesn't want to push towards what would be a greater NATO involvement (I doubt that is true). Or maybe Zelensky is desperate and doesn't care about how this all can escalate from fake claims - remember the Uke air defence missile drama egged on as a Russian attack as a tractor was struck in Poland.

Whilst he may or may not be someone who uses cocaine, he displays all the insanity of a cocaine addict as anyone who knows people that damaged would know. NATO members will be aware of his character, and will be partly why they are loathe to donate, sell or loan arms that can be used beyond what is "sensibly" required.

Bristol there must be at least a dozen NATO monitoring devices each capable of tracking 1,000 items the size of a Tenis ball in the air over the Ukraine at any time, the west is fully aware of what is in the Air in the region 24/7. I would even suggest that as soon as the Russians start to fire up thei missiles the Ukraine gets a heads up, which probably explains the 90% kill rate they have v Russian rockets.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is superb analysis from one of the best thinker's on the Ukraine situation.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/nuclear-war?r=f9j4c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[Bristol Red Rover]

Unfortunately his premise of Russia blowing up the nuke issue seems to be mistaken. From what I've seen it has been Western media that grasped onto a few mentions of it, and in that it serves to create an enemy that is threatening us. It is threatening Ukraine.

And that leads to the other angle of the fear of Russian military acting against Euro nations further west. Of course that is possible, but so far I've seen nothing suggesting that is at worst even likely. Again, blowing up the fear angle by Western nations.

The article also weighs in with Russian defeats in Ukraine where all the current evidence is of signifi ant Ukraine defeats,  as well as a serious depletion of arms as we as manpower losses. The Kiev withdrawal was tactical as well as being an act of de-escalation. There are was the timing then of also initiating peace talks,  at that time I believe brokered by Turkey. This was dismissed by the US who at that time saw prospects of a Russian defeat, or at least a weakening of its overall military power, and economy, which is arguably the main reason behind the US creating this war. Neither of those have transpired,  at least in any significant way.

The article is very strongly based on a particular western narrative.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Kiev withdrawal was strategic!

Give me strength.

The Kiev offensive was the key to Putin's War. He assumed his mobile forces would walk into Kyiv pretty much uncontested, he'd decapitate the Ukraine Government and install a puppet. There's zero other explanation that stands up to the lightest scrutiny.

What Putin certainly did not want was a full scale war stretching out for two or more years, the unification of NATO response and the loss of his European gas and oil markets.

Strategic withdrawal! They got hammered on the battlefield and chased back across the border!

As for him threatening Ukraine with nuclear weapons, you really haven't read the article you are criticising have you? 

[Bristol Red Rover]

I read it completely. It starts with the premise that shapes the whole of his nuke argument. I'm not surprised you buy that. It is based on western media exaggeration and the anti Russian narrative, not based on balanced fact.

You don't know about the Turkish peace initiative? Probs not the Israeli one either - stopped for the very same reasons by the very same party seemingly for the very same self interests - the US, and its British lackie, not Ukraine.

For sure, a quick victory by taking Kiev would have saved much Russian cost and lives, Ukraine's more so. It wasn't the main effort though, that was focused on taking Donbas and the Crimea landbridge.

Russia was initially lacking in manpower to sustain the other territory it retreated from. Ukraine lost a large amount of its forces in that counterattack, Russia retreated to preserve its manpower and armour. Currently Ukraine is slowly, incrementally, retreating across practically the whole fronts. So that other premise in the nuke argument doesn't hold water either - Russia doesn't need a nuke war, nor to use tactical nukes. Most experts predict a large scale Russian advance in the next week or two. That might or might not happen,  but it will almost certainly be putting a couple of hundred thousand extra troops on the battlefield, plus a lot of extra armour. Has Ukraine got reserves to counter that? We'll see.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BRR

You continue to push the Kremlin line that Russia has broadly been achieving its strategic aims.

That is utter nonsense. There is no way on God's earth that Putin invades Ukraine on 24 February last year if he knows where he stands 12 months later. The only possible victory for him was a rapid march into Kyiv (I note your continued use of the Russian spelling - very telling) and the toppling of the Govt.

There was no possible strategic victory which outweighed the cotsts if that wasn't achievable.

Putin f**ked up on that front, because he'd surrounded himself by people too scared to tell him it would not be the cakewalk he imagined. He's now engulfed in a nightmare that makes the Soviet disaster in Afghanistan look like a kids' game. His militaey hardware and wetware have been shown to be nothing like what was feared. His economic system is in pieces. He's a pariah on the world stage, smacked down by China when he tries one of his playground threats about nukes.

And you still have him as the master strategist, leading the agenda. It's truly pitiful to watch.

Regarding the nukes, you CLEARLY didn't read the article, because you miss the fact that his entire premise is that the Western media has overblown the nuclear threat. And you clearly haven't read what he says about why the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine is very unlikely to happen, despite Putin, Lavrov and  Medvedev's crude threats.

Put your keyboard away and go and have another read of it. You might learn something. 

[Bristol Red Rover]

It starts, "There is a profit motive at work here, one that Russian propagandists exploit by their references to nuclear weapons."

It's western media plugging it to nduce fear in the population so as to try to maximise support for the Yankee war. Some success there.

Kiev, Kyiv - really? I've used both. How do you spell Cardiff? Rome? You might also be interested to know both Ukraine and Russia use a different alphabet, so how does the British spelling matter? It sounds the same. Desperate stuff eh. Just about as desperate as the rest of your western media regurgitation.

Russia ALWAYS aimed to destroy the Ukraine/NATO threat,  eg ultimately missiles on its border. The Ukraine army has been seriously compromised, Russia is beating them. Or maybe you can point to the contrary? Let's see what happens next.

[normal rules]

Russian casualty rates are reported to be four times higher than jun July last year. Around 8-900 every day.
There won’t be any Russian offensive in spring.
There won’t be many troops left.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If Russia's strategic plan was to prevent Ukraine buddying up to NATO and having NATO weapons, this must go down as the worst conceived and conducted plan of the century to date.

[BobG]

And he's succeeded in broadening the scale and scope of NATO too...... Strategic masterstroke that.

BobG

[ravenrover]

Reading today that Wagner group are using conscriots and released prisoners in suicidal attacks. It applies both ways to be suicidal whether they attack or don't and yes BRR this in a western media report

[glosterred]

Reading today that Wagner group are using conscriots and released prisoners in suicidal attacks. It applies both ways to be suicidal whether they attack or don't and yes BRR this in a western media report

Also hearing that the number of “volunteers” from prison to the Wagner group is reducing as word gets back to the life expectancy of “volunteers” isn’t great

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin's strategy according to BRR.


Intention: Keep NATO away from Russian borders.

Fact: Ukraine could not have joined NATO because there is a clause preventing accession of nations that don't control all their territory. As Ukraine didn't control Donbas and Crimea, it could not have joined NATO in 2022.

Outcome of invasion: Finland is joining NATO, giving NATO another 1340km of border with Russia. Russian troops are daily being attacked with NATO weapons.

Conclusion: Putin is winning
 

[Bristol Red Rover]

Reading today that Wagner group are using conscriots and released prisoners in suicidal attacks. It applies both ways to be suicidal whether they attack or don't and yes BRR this in a western media report

Also hearing that the number of “volunteers” from prison to the Wagner group is reducing as word gets back to the life expectancy of “volunteers” isn’t great

They have already stopped recruiting prisoners.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Putin's strategy according to BRR.


Intention: Keep NATO away from Russian borders.

Fact: Ukraine could not have joined NATO because there is a clause preventing accession of nations that don't control all their territory. As Ukraine didn't control Donbas and Crimea, it could not have joined NATO in 2022.

Outcome of invasion: Finland is joining NATO, giving NATO another 1340km of border with Russia. Russian troops are daily being attacked with NATO weapons.

Conclusion: Putin is winning
 

Wasn't Ukraine trying to reclaim the Donbas prior to the Russian invasion?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ukraine was trying to establish control over its own land in the face of a Russian-supplied and armed separatist movement, as you well know, but ignore.

[Filo]

Putin's strategy according to BRR.


Intention: Keep NATO away from Russian borders.

Fact: Ukraine could not have joined NATO because there is a clause preventing accession of nations that don't control all their territory. As Ukraine didn't control Donbas and Crimea, it could not have joined NATO in 2022.

Outcome of invasion: Finland is joining NATO, giving NATO another 1340km of border with Russia. Russian troops are daily being attacked with NATO weapons.

Conclusion: Putin is winning
 

Wasn't Ukraine trying to reclaim the Donbas prior to the Russian invasion?

A perfectly legitimate action trying to defend it’s own territory from aggressors

[ravenrover]

Reading today that Wagner group are using conscriots and released prisoners in suicidal attacks. It applies both ways to be suicidal whether they attack or don't and yes BRR this in a western media report

Also hearing that the number of “volunteers” from prison to the Wagner group is reducing as word gets back to the life expectancy of “volunteers” isn’t great

They have already stopped recruiting prisoners.

Recruiting? Did they have an option?

[Bristol Red Rover]

Ukraine was trying to establish control over its own land in the face of a Russian-supplied and armed separatist movement, as you well know, but ignore.

Don't ignore that, but you conveniently miss context. Conveniently for regurgitating a western, US narrative.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Reading today that Wagner group are using conscriots and released prisoners in suicidal attacks. It applies both ways to be suicidal whether they attack or don't and yes BRR this in a western media report

Also hearing that the number of “volunteers” from prison to the Wagner group is reducing as word gets back to the life expectancy of “volunteers” isn’t great

They have already stopped recruiting prisoners.

Recruiting? Did they have an option?

Yes, they could have recruited more.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The recruitment has stopped because no convicts are volunteering.

No convicts are volunteering because word has got back that Wagner is using convicts as front line cannon fodder.

[BobG]

A typically Russian tactic. Well known in WW2 too. Always a great result for the men at the top. Blunt the opposition defences, and kill a whole load of alleged troublemakers. What could be better?? The prisoners who volunteered must have been idiots. What the hell else did they think they were going to be used for???

BobG

Later: or, the Russian interpretation of history doesn't include the death battalions....

[BobG]

This is superb analysis from one of the best thinker's on the Ukraine situation.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/nuclear-war?r=f9j4c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

I've only just read the article you linked Billy. For anyone with an interest, you may not agree with some, or indeed all, of it, but it does provide much food for thought. Given the positions taken by our resident apologist, I did rather smile at this couple of lines:

"Each defeat generates stories about how Russia was not actually defeated.  That is worth noting.  The escalation one actually sees is narrative.  It takes more and more work for Russians to explain defeat as victory.  But so far they have been up to the task."

BobG