Ukraine

[Bristol Red Rover]

The idea that anyone in the West wanted this to be a major shooting war is just preposterous. Its the sort of intellectually bone idle diarrhoea shat out by far left idiots and Kremlin fan boys.

Europe didn't want this to be a shooting war because the result has been massive damage to the European economy.

The USA didn't want this to be a shooting war because their nightmare scenario is Putin getting hoyed out and the Russian state system collapsing - becoming Somalia with 7000 nukes.

It only takes a minute of sober thought to understand why it was in the interests of no country in the West for Russia to start this war. But still that shite comes pouring out.

Big assumption there that the EU and US thought their action through. There's a lot of previous they have.

[Iberian Red]

Yet more signs of Russia's increasing loss of world importance.

Ukraine today took out the Kerch Bridge again.

Russia responded by saying it is pulling out of the agreement that let's Ukrainian wheat ships pass through the Black Sea on their way to feed Arabia and Africa.

China very diplomatically says "Get back in your cage Russia. WE tell you what to do."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680908984604131328

Meanwhile. Expect the wheat shipments to continue under the protection of the Turkish navy. And since Turkey is in NATO, Russia will not dare attack their ships.

Putin's Russia is a pitiful mess.

Lots of US fanboy fantasy there from the tearful one.

Russia was pulling out of the grain deal before the crime bridge damage. It didn't serve them. Reports of military imports from ships later taking grain out doesn't help. Plus Odessa is a military target. Lots of reasons to stop the deal. Judge for yourself tho the big story there isn't wholly what's reported in western media - kinda obvious, but seems there's lots who follow only one side of reporting.

Interesting to see you refer to the bridge by its real name.

[BillyStubbsTears]

"Reports of military imports from ships later taking grain out..."

Jesus, the Kremlin propaganda b*llocks never stops from BRR does it.

"Lots of reasons to stop the deal". That's an insight into a person's soul. The grain shipments are vital to prevent the real threat of starvation in parts of East Africa and Yemen.  There is precisely zero reason for Russia to stop these grain shipments other than an attempt to blackmail the world's conscience.

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1681697146305740800

More threats from the Kremlin fascists. I'll tell you now. They will not dare attack a Turkish navy ship.

[Filo]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1681697146305740800

More threats from the Kremlin fascists. I'll tell you now. They will not dare attack a Turkish navy ship.

It sounds like Russia is getting desperate, ate NATO naval vessels allowed free passage through the Bosphorus

[normal rules]

poo tin now not going to SA for the BRICS conference.
Thats saves SA a big headache surrounding his ICC warrant.

[ravenrover]

Didn't they tell him a while back that if he came they would have to arrest him?

[Bristol Red Rover]

"Reports of military imports from ships later taking grain out..."

Jesus, the Kremlin propaganda b*llocks never stops from BRR does it.

"Lots of reasons to stop the deal". That's an insight into a person's soul. The grain shipments are vital to prevent the real threat of starvation in parts of East Africa and Yemen.  There is precisely zero reason for Russia to stop these grain shipments other than an attempt to blackmail the world's conscience.

Yet many shipments didn't go to those needy countries did they....

[Bristol Red Rover]

And the side of the deal for Russia didn't materialise.

"When the UN brokered the deal, it told Russia it would help it increase its exports of grain and fertilisers.

Although Western countries have imposed no sanctions on Russia's agricultural products, Russia says the sanctions they did impose have deterred shipping firms, international banks and insurers from dealing with its producers.

What sanctions are being imposed on Russia?
Russia asked for its state-owned agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, to be reconnected to the Swift fast payment system (from which all Russian banks were barred in June 2022).

The UN suggested that Russia set up a subsidiary of the bank, which would be allowed to use Swift - but Russia refused that option, saying it would take too long.

Other suggested schemes, such as processing payments for food and fertiliser through the US bank JPMorgan Chase, or through the African Export-Import Bank, also fell through.

Russia says it will rejoin the deal if its conditions are met."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61759692

[ncRover]

https://youtu.be/nPg7AdXSrbE

[Bristol Red Rover]

https://youtu.be/nPg7AdXSrbE

I think anyone who even basically grasps the problem with Ukraine food exports can see the effect on the world. What this guy completely skips in his detailed analysis is what I highlighted above. From what he does say, he is promoting one side of the issue, quite cheaply so at certain points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just seen some figures showing that 40% of Russia's sea-borne oil exports go through the Black Sea.

Ukraine has just announced a tit-for-tat policy that they will consider all ships using Russian Black Sea ports to be military targets.

Yet another dogshit policy barfed up on the hoof by Putin without consideration of the consequences.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No doubt there were Ukrainian troops, EU advisers and NATO weapons staches in here.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682892910755282945

f**king barbarians.

[Filo]

Time to take out the Kerch Bridge properly, and the Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol

[ravenrover]

Zelensky has promised retaliation after the missile strike on the Cathedral

[TonySoprano]

Time to take out the Kerch Bridge properly, and the Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol

Would that not hurt civilians in crimea though ?

[Bristol Red Rover]

No doubt there were Ukrainian troops, EU advisers and NATO weapons staches in here.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682892910755282945

f**king barbarians.

BST knowing it wasn't air defence?

[Bristol Red Rover]

Not only that, but it is a state sponsored "opium of the people" institution. Do we need them, or do our rulers need them? Who's crying?

[Filo]

No doubt there were Ukrainian troops, EU advisers and NATO weapons staches in here.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682892910755282945

f**king barbarians.

BST knowing it wasn't air defence?

And you knowing it was?

Anyway, lets go with that line for a minute, if there wasn’t any f**king missile’s incoming there would be no need for air defence would there? Do you see the flaw in your warped theory?

[Bristol Red Rover]

No doubt there were Ukrainian troops, EU advisers and NATO weapons staches in here.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1682892910755282945

f**king barbarians.

BST knowing it wasn't air defence?

And you knowing it was?

Anyway, lets go with that line for a minute, if there wasn’t any f**king missile’s incoming there would be no need for air defence would there? Do you see the flaw in your warped theory?

Calm you boots potty mouth.

Likelihood is its air defence, which is different from an incoming missile, which is different than a targetted missile - BST's post was suggesting the latter, as he always does. Then yes, any missiles are bad things.

I'm not taking away from this, so as an "and" not a "but" it's worth noting the grain deal failure and why. Its also worth noting the massive use of cluster munitions by the US/Ukraine, partly due to running out of conventional shells. This will be reciprocated. Not a good thing.

[Dutch Uncle]

When an air defence missile is fired and hits an incoming missile, then debris falls, and in unpredictable areas. That leaves a totally different sort of damage from the explosion of the warhead of a missile strike. In this case with the huge stone building concerned there seems little doubt there was an explosion, not debris falling.

For the case when an air defence missile misses, the warhead of an S300 missile is about 300lb - larger than most others, but still IMHO not enough to cause the damage concerned. The missile has a range of 75 to 250 miles and is not a point defence missile, it hits targets while they are a long way away, and so if it missed it is likely to land nowhere near Odessa itself. Shorter range air defence missiles have very much smaller warheads.

My experience as an air warfare analyst, albeit on the limited data I can see, suggests a direct hit from incoming missile as by far the most likely. 

The BBC report has little doubt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66281027

Edit: I have no comment on whether the incoming missile was targetted, inaccurate or rogue, but if it was not the first then it could equally easily have been a hospital, school or residential flats that were hit

[BillyStubbsTears]

Exactly right DU.

I cannot put into words the contempt I have for someone who repeatedly churns out Kremlin lines every single time this sort of thing happens. It'd be vaguely believable if there was some supporting logic to it. But there isn't. Ever. It's the sort of argument that is aimed at the stupid, the ignorant and the ideologically impervious.

While innocent people die, vital civilian infrastructure is destroyed and cultural landmarks are obliterated. By a fascist state terrorist.

[Bristol Red Rover]

When an air defence missile is fired and hits an incoming missile, then debris falls, and in unpredictable areas. That leaves a totally different sort of damage from the explosion of the warhead of a missile strike. In this case with the huge stone building concerned there seems little doubt there was an explosion, not debris falling.

For the case when an air defence missile misses, the warhead of an S300 missile is about 300lb - larger than most others, but still IMHO not enough to cause the damage concerned. The missile has a range of 75 to 250 miles and is not a point defence missile, it hits targets while they are a long way away, and so if it missed it is likely to land nowhere near Odessa itself. Shorter range air defence missiles have very much smaller warheads.

My experience as an air warfare analyst, albeit on the limited data I can see, suggests a direct hit from incoming missile as by far the most likely. 

The BBC report has little doubt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66281027

Edit: I have no comment on whether the incoming missile was targetted, inaccurate or rogue, but if it was not the first then it could equally easily have been a hospital, school or residential flats that were hit

I saw a vid on this night where it seemed like an air defense missile went up, then down. It is said this happened more than once. It's certainly the case that Odessa air defence was stretched beyond on that night, more so than in most regions.

[Bristol Red Rover]

My concern right now with Ukraine evidently progressively struggling, is what will NATO opt for? Yes Dutch, I know that it isn't officially NATO,  but let's be realistic.

Poland is v likely to send in troops in the west. Belarus is likely to be involved. Wagner is sitting there waiting. Is it possible for BOTH sides to contain action within Ukraine? If not we're in mega serious escalation. If Poland engages, who next?

[Dutch Uncle]

BRR, while as you know I strongly disagree with your view on how we got to this situation, nevertheless I wholeheartedly agree with you that it is a critical time for NATO.  But I think so for a different reason. The collapse of the grain deal has exacerbated a global humanitarian factor and pressure for action in the Black Sea might arise. Dangerous times with plenty of NATO countries with Black Sea coastlines and ports.   

And if you saw a video of an air defence missile going up and down then it was almost certainly a SHORAD (Short Range Air Defence) missile used as point defence. The incoming missile would have already penetrated the area defence of the long range Surface-to-Air (SAM) missiles and so the SHORAD  would have been sent as a desperate last attempt for an interception with little chance of success. These missiles are far smaller, lighter, quicker to launch, with very small warheads. As an example the most common is the Stinger which has a mere one pound warhead which has no chance of causing the damage seen. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yet more signs of Russia's increasing loss of world importance.

Ukraine today took out the Kerch Bridge again.

Russia responded by saying it is pulling out of the agreement that let's Ukrainian wheat ships pass through the Black Sea on their way to feed Arabia and Africa.

China very diplomatically says "Get back in your cage Russia. WE tell you what to do."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680908984604131328

Meanwhile. Expect the wheat shipments to continue under the protection of the Turkish navy. And since Turkey is in NATO, Russia will not dare attack their ships.

Putin's Russia is a pitiful mess.

As I was saying. Ships are still sailing in and out of Odesa. Grain is still going through the Black Sea, albeit at reduced rates. Putin claims that the ships are used to bring military supplies into Ukraine and his useful idiots repeat those claims. But despite his threats, he doesn't dare lay a finger on those ships. Instead he bombs the grain silos. Lashing out like the emasculated thug he is.

And meanwhile, the UN representative in Sudan warns of impending famine because of the global increase in grain prices due to the reduction in grain supplies from Ukraine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And more meanwhile.

Lukashenko and Putin sit gabbling like two incel trolls about Wagner attacking Poland. When they both know that the Polish army would eat them up and shit them out if they so much as thought about farting across the border.

This is what happens when potentially great countries are dominated by low grade fascist thugs. They appear scary for a while. Then reality hits and they find that actually they are toothless on the big stage. And they are left bombing grain silos and cathedrals and apartment blocks to vent their impotent rage.

[Bristol Red Rover]

And more meanwhile.

Lukashenko and Putin sit gabbling like two incel trolls about Wagner attacking Poland. When they both know that the Polish army would eat them up and shit them out if they so much as thought about farting across the border.

This is what happens when potentially great countries are dominated by low grade fascist thugs. They appear scary for a while. Then reality hits and they find that actually they are toothless on the big stage. And they are left bombing grain silos and cathedrals and apartment blocks to vent their impotent rage.

Wagner attacking Poland isn't a thing. Poland entering Ukraine, officially, with increasing forces is. As is Ukraine having to keep a lot of troops in the west to guard against Belarus and Wagner, whilst they are ever shorter in the east.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remember when you hear useful idiots explaining away Putin's War as someone else's fault.

THIS is what Putin does.

Grozny
Aleppo
Now Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1683437071128489984

Every time he touches somewhere he thinks is weaker than him, this is what he does.

A true barbarian.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Remember when you hear useful idiots explaining away Putin's War as someone else's fault.

THIS is what Putin does.

Grozny
Aleppo
Now Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1683437071128489984

Every time he touches somewhere he thinks is weaker than him, this is what he does.

A true barbarian.

That's a fairly short list compared to....

No war is good, but some folks like to fly the flag, feed the fire, play their little role, following the leader, the leader, the leader....