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AdamThat is because they are only testing hospitalised patients with serious symptoms. We are not doing the sort of mass testing that Germany or South Korea have been implementing.
Billy, is that right when there is such a big difference in the number tested and those who have been found positive?
..An interesting graph he shared.Iceland = tested the population more widely.Netherlands = only really tested those presenting in Hospital.I think the conclusions are pretty easy to draw.UK follows the Netherlands model.
On the second part, I also posted a 2nd link above. Researchers have done some quite sophisticated modeling to estimate that just short of 1.8 million have been infected in the UK up until 31st March.
Quote from: Copps is Magic on March 30, 2020, 08:34:01 pmOn the second part, I also posted a 2nd link above. Researchers have done some quite sophisticated modeling to estimate that just short of 1.8 million have been infected in the UK up until 31st March.That means that current death rates are about 0.00007% ?Even 1% would be 18k deaths so far, and I've read on more than one occasion that there could be full digit number death rates overall? So either those reports/posts are scare mongering? Or this figure of 1.8 million is pie in the sky based on guess work alone? I'm open to whichever number has the lowest deaths.Current world death figures *being reported, are 4.7% , so we are looking at 84k deaths in the next month or so based on current speculation regarding numbers . And that's without a further soul being infected. God I hope they are wrong!!
CiM/AdamA few thoughts on the mortality rate.If there are 1.8m infected in the UK at the moment and the first case (not the first recorded case) is assumed to have been mid-Jan (which I have read from someone authoritative, although I can't remember who) then we have had about 21 doublings in about 75 days. Say 3.75 days to double which sounds very similar to what has been quoted elsewhere.....
Anyone know if this includes the deaths at home that the ONS announced earlier today?
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 31, 2020, 03:23:55 pmAnyone know if this includes the deaths at home that the ONS announced earlier today?The figures from England were all deaths in hospitals.