Should the season finish now (CORONAVIRUS thread)

[BillyStubbsTears]

But that's just the point BRR. It's a balancing act between blunting the virus grow and not damaging the economy. Which is why non-essential gatherings will be the first things to be cancelled. Like football matches.

I'll be surprised if we get to the end of the season without matches getting cancelled or played behind closed doors.

[IDM]

And that’s why I think behind closed doors may/will happen.  Hasn’t that already happened in Italy.?

Would be weird but would mean that issues are decided on the pitch..

[Bristol Red Rover]

Footy is party of the economy, as are pubs, clubs, conferences and the list of "non essential gatherings" goes on. In a way, it could make sense to let the virus spread a little early on then clamp down heavy to spread the peak cases - tinkering with footy matches makes little sense.

We could see how well China has coped compared to other countries.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BRR.

Yep. That's precisely what the good prof said in that video yesterday. The key will be bringing in quite Draconian closures around the peak. In the meantime, we can all do our bits by taking simple actions and being prepared to follow official advice as it ramps up.

[IDM]

I may be off the mark here, but won’t the cases being reported daily now, be a consequence of the virus spreading a few weeks ago.? Might it then be possible that containment measures put in place since would eventually slow the spread.?  That assumes we’re not just locking the stable door after the horse has bolted..

[drfchound]

Adam/Hound.

You can give your own opinions on what will or will not happen. Me, I prefer to listen to people who have spent their entire lives studying these things.

That video that CiM posted yesterday with the professor from Imperial College. He says that typically, epidemics spread at a rate that more or less doubles every five days. Of course that doesn't go on forever because it's self-limiting. In a normal flu epidemic, most people have some level of immunity, so it only spreads to 10-15% of the population.

The point with this one is that we have zero natural immunity because it's a new virus. So more people who come into contact with it will get infected. As I say, yer man from Imperial College says that we expect the doubling rate to be every five days. At the moment, in Europe and the UK it's more like about every 3 days. We are at the very start of the wide spread of the infection.

Once it's out, you can expect that doubling to continue at something like that rate if we do nowt about it, until maybe 40million people are infected in the UK. That will take about 2-3 months. The key issue is that how we behave can slow down that doubling rate. And the slower the rate of doubling, the fewer people will have the infection at any one time, and the better the treatment the NHS will be able to provide.

That is my entire point.

You say that China contained it.

Fine. They did that by effectively closing the country down when they only had a few dozen cases. You are saying that we shouldn't do that because it would be an over-reaction. Which way do you want it?

Hound.

If the doubling rate is every day, it would take 20 days to go from 1 to 1million cases. No-one who looks at this ever sees doubling rates of once every day. If it doubles every three day, it takes 2 months to get to a million. Every five days and it is 3 months.

The virus started getting a hold outside China about a fortnight ago. There were about 500 cases outside China at that time. By this time last week it was 3000. By Sunday it was 8500, last night it was 12,750. As we speak it is about 14,250.

Go and think about it. It's been doubling at a rate of once every three days for a fortnight. If that continues, there will be about 7 million cases worldwide by the end of the month. If it slows down to doubling every 5 days, there will about 500,000. If we really got on top of it and slowed the doubling rate to once every ten days, there would only be about 100,000 by the end of the month.

That's the difference that different amounts of effort can make in the early stage.

BST, I haven’t given any suggestions as to what might with the spread of the virus.
I was simply stating that someone (I can’t remember who) had made a similar post to the recent one by yourself, about the rate of the growth of people infected.
I thought at the time that projections were a bit dramatic and it has proven to be the case.
I don’t think that Adam had made any assertions either.

[adamtherover]

Adam/Hound.

You can give your own opinions on what will or will not happen. Me, I prefer to listen to people who have spent their entire lives studying these things.

That video that CiM posted yesterday with the professor from Imperial College. He says that typically, epidemics spread at a rate that more or less doubles every five days. Of course that doesn't go on forever because it's self-limiting. In a normal flu epidemic, most people have some level of immunity, so it only spreads to 10-15% of the population.

The point with this one is that we have zero natural immunity because it's a new virus. So more people who come into contact with it will get infected. As I say, yer man from Imperial College says that we expect the doubling rate to be every five days. At the moment, in Europe and the UK it's more like about every 3 days. We are at the very start of the wide spread of the infection.

Once it's out, you can expect that doubling to continue at something like that rate if we do nowt about it, until maybe 40million people are infected in the UK. That will take about 2-3 months. The key issue is that how we behave can slow down that doubling rate. And the slower the rate of doubling, the fewer people will have the infection at any one time, and the better the treatment the NHS will be able to provide.

That is my entire point.

You say that China contained it.

Fine. They did that by effectively closing the country down when they only had a few dozen cases. You are saying that we shouldn't do that because it would be an over-reaction. Which way do you want it?

Hound.

If the doubling rate is every day, it would take 20 days to go from 1 to 1million cases. No-one who looks at this ever sees doubling rates of once every day. If it doubles every three day, it takes 2 months to get to a million. Every five days and it is 3 months.

The virus started getting a hold outside China about a fortnight ago. There were about 500 cases outside China at that time. By this time last week it was 3000. By Sunday it was 8500, last night it was 12,750. As we speak it is about 14,250.

Go and think about it. It's been doubling at a rate of once every three days for a fortnight. If that continues, there will be about 7 million cases worldwide by the end of the month. If it slows down to doubling every 5 days, there will about 500,000. If we really got on top of it and slowed the doubling rate to once every ten days, there would only be about 100,000 by the end of the month.

That's the difference that different amounts of effort can make in the early stage.

BST, I haven’t given any suggestions as to what might with the spread of the virus.
I was simply stating that someone (I can’t remember who) had made a similar post to the recent one by yourself, about the rate of the growth of people infected.
I thought at the time that projections were a bit dramatic and it has proven to be the case.
I don’t think that Adam had made any assertions either.

  spot on,  all we are saying is take a breath, that's all... we aint the ones predicting millions catching the death flu..   not if...  but when...

Currently China has an infection rate of 0.0000066% !!!   Do I need to go on
...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Adam/Hound

Apologies for misreading your posts. Agreed - you weren't predicting anything.

Adam.

Like I said, China has controlled it by closing down the country. You're saying that's an over reaction. You can't have it both ways.

[ravenrover]

Do we have to have 2 threads running on this? Let's leave it on  Off Topic

[adamtherover]

Adam/Hound

Apologies for misreading your posts. Agreed - you weren't predicting anything.

Adam.

Like I said, China has controlled it by closing down the country. You're saying that's an over reaction. You can't have it both ways.

can I ask how you close down a country the size and population of china?  They locked down the worst areas such as wuhan, ETC.,  but there is a ginormous amount of people going about their business..   

[sedwardsdrfc]

China has shut down cities and through a health app which the government monitors the population they can tell who has symptoms and stop them from moving, guess it knows their heart beat and a few other key factors. There are regular checkpoints and if that App shows a red or yellow icon rather than a green one they get sent away to self quarantine. We wouldn't allow that kind of monitoring (apple probably have the data but not our government) so much hard in UK to know who can travel and who can't.

Almost all factories in china are shut so not many are going about their normal business. it's quite amazing what they've done really but there's moral issues to it too. A worry with the factory closures is that china is the worlds sole producer of some very important pharmaceuticals too meaning we could have a drugs shortage just when we need them

[adamtherover]

China has shut down cities and through a health app which the government monitors the population they can tell who has symptoms and stop them from moving, guess it knows their heart beat and a few other key factors. There are regular checkpoints and if that App shows a red or yellow icon rather than a green one they get sent away to self quarantine. We wouldn't allow that kind of monitoring (apple probably have the data but not our government) so much hard in UK to know who can travel and who can't.

Almost all factories in china are shut so not many are going about their normal business. it's quite amazing what they've done really but there's moral issues to it too. A worry with the factory closures is that china is the worlds sole producer of some very important pharmaceuticals too meaning we could have a drugs shortage just when we need them

I dont mean the industrial regions, but the mass amounts of rural china, where they are being left to their own devices..    any ideas what a billion people looks like... 

Oh, and foxxcon,  one of the largest factories has reopened...   what does that tell you...

[drfchound]

Don’t they all look the same.😷

[BillyStubbsTears]

Adam.



Go figure. I very much doubt any Western countries have the political will or even ability to shut down a country to that extent.

[sedwardsdrfc]

China has shut down cities and through a health app which the government monitors the population they can tell who has symptoms and stop them from moving, guess it knows their heart beat and a few other key factors. There are regular checkpoints and if that App shows a red or yellow icon rather than a green one they get sent away to self quarantine. We wouldn't allow that kind of monitoring (apple probably have the data but not our government) so much hard in UK to know who can travel and who can't.

Almost all factories in china are shut so not many are going about their normal business. it's quite amazing what they've done really but there's moral issues to it too. A worry with the factory closures is that china is the worlds sole producer of some very important pharmaceuticals too meaning we could have a drugs shortage just when we need them

I dont mean the industrial regions, but the mass amounts of rural china, where they are being left to their own devices..    any ideas what a billion people looks like... 

Oh, and foxxcon,  one of the largest factories has reopened...   what does that tell you...

They have locked the country down as far as is ever going to be feasibly possible. Don't think there's a suggestion that every citizens every moment is accounted for that kind of lockdown is clearly impossible.

People in rural regions aren't much of a problem anyway if the infected areas are controlled tightly it doesn't matter where other people go if they can't contact infected. Cases are been found and a slower rate in china too which proves the shut downs effectiveness.

[Colin C No.3]

This has now gone way off being a topic to be analysed here.

For goodness sake administrators, take it ‘off forum’ so that the issues surrounding it (many of which are not football related) can be discussed appropriately.

[normal rules]

Death rate 2 in 1000. And these are those with weakened immune system and underlying medical conditions.

99.8% survival rate.

Malaria kills millions every year, no one bats an eye lid in nw Europe.

I wonder what current press and media would have made of the common cold and flu when it was first discovered years ago.

[mrfrostsdad]

I'm in agreement with the OP here.
When COBRA is sitting on an almost daily basis and the Government is planning (as far as it can) for a worst case scenario of 80% of the population having the virus, it's time to do something now, not later.

The current expectation is for 1% of those who do catch it to die. Ok, many of those will have underlying suppressed immune systems/health issues, but in the UK that's around half a million people.

Th effect on the economy could well be catastrophic. It's a major major issue

[adamtherover]

I'm in agreement with the OP here.
When COBRA is sitting on an almost daily basis and the Government is planning (as far as it can) for a worst case scenario of 80% of the population having the virus, it's time to do something now, not later.

The current expectation is for 1% of those who do catch it to die. Ok, many of those will have underlying suppressed immune systems/health issues, but in the UK that's around half a million people.

Th effect on the economy could well be catastrophic. It's a major major issue

So what we are saying is that, half a million people are going to die? Government figures, and they are planning what to do when it happens? Erm,  that sounds like shutting the door after the horse has bolted?  If this is as serious a threat as they are telling folk. Why is there not any action plans in place to stop half a million poor sods dieing??? If advice to wash hands regularly is as good as it gets??  well jeez,  thats just general hygiene.
I have advised caution on scare mongering, panic inducing, panic buying etc., but if 500,000 citizens are gonna go, then the efforts of the COBRA committee needs stepping up somewhat!   

Not, who is gonna replace Joe the tube train driver,  but how are we gonna stop Joe the tube train driver from dieing?

[i_ateallthepies]

Since the mortality rate is weighted towards the old folk like me, a good clear out could mean a right windfall for the nation's coffers and save billions for the pension fund.  Do you suppose Cummings might have thought of this already

[mrfrostsdad]

I'm in agreement with the OP here.
When COBRA is sitting on an almost daily basis and the Government is planning (as far as it can) for a worst case scenario of 80% of the population having the virus, it's time to do something now, not later.

The current expectation is for 1% of those who do catch it to die. Ok, many of those will have underlying suppressed immune systems/health issues, but in the UK that's around half a million people.

Th effect on the economy could well be catastrophic. It's a major major issue

So what we are saying is that, half a million people are going to die? Government figures, and they are planning what to do when it happens? Erm,  that sounds like shutting the door after the horse has bolted?  If this is as serious a threat as they are telling folk. Why is there not any action plans in place to stop half a million poor sods dieing??? If advice to wash hands regularly is as good as it gets??  well jeez,  thats just general hygiene.
I have advised caution on scare mongering, panic inducing, panic buying etc., but if 500,000 citizens are gonna go, then the efforts of the COBRA committee needs stepping up somewhat!   

Not, who is gonna replace Joe the tube train driver,  but how are we gonna stop Joe the tube train driver from dieing?

Adam, that's the Governments worst case scenario.
The problem is, no-one (including the Government) really knows.
Even Mr Witty, the chief medical officer in the UK, says there is a possibility that warmer weather may kill the virus off, or lessen its effect. But of course we don't know that.
As for Joe the tube driver, I have a sneaky feeling the tube would be the first major infrastructure to be closed if this becomes an epidemic, as opposed to pandemic (it'll be too late at that stage)

But, the biggest issue is, no-one really knows

[mrfrostsdad]

ps Adam. The Government already has a four stage plan in place. The country moved onto stage two today. This included introducing new laws about SSP

[adamtherover]

ps Adam. The Government already has a four stage plan in place. The country moved onto stage two today. This included introducing new laws about SSP

do we know what the terms of these plans are?  anything that the general public is doing that they need to change?

[DonnyOsmond]

https://www.doncasterroversfc.co.uk/news/2020/march/player-handshakes-on-hold-to-combat-coronavirus/

Shaking hands pre-match is banned for Rovers. Smart decision.

[NickDRFC]

https://www.doncasterroversfc.co.uk/news/2020/march/player-handshakes-on-hold-to-combat-coronavirus/

Shaking hands pre-match is banned for Rovers. Smart decision.

Seems a bit pointless when at the first set piece you’re going to have players all over each other anyway.

[Not Now Kato]

https://www.doncasterroversfc.co.uk/news/2020/march/player-handshakes-on-hold-to-combat-coronavirus/

Shaking hands pre-match is banned for Rovers. Smart decision.

Seems a bit pointless when at the first set piece you’re going to have players all over each other anyway.

Indeed.  Like so much else, it's to be seen to be doing something whilst actually doing sweet bugger all!

[IDM]

Alternatively a handshake is a palm to palm contact so if someone has the infection, coughs on his hand and shakes a hand it can be passed on.

Unlikely to make much difference with shirt grabbing etc..

[Bristol Red Rover]

https://www.doncasterroversfc.co.uk/news/2020/march/player-handshakes-on-hold-to-combat-coronavirus/

Shaking hands pre-match is banned for Rovers. Smart decision.

Seems a bit pointless when at the first set piece you’re going to have players all over each other anyway.

Indeed.  Like so much else, it's to be seen to be doing something whilst actually doing sweet bugger all!

It's more about sending a message about handshaking not being wise. At least it might bring a halt to the tedious everyone shakes everyone elses hand after the game.

[DonnyOsmond]

Alternatively a handshake is a palm to palm contact so if someone has the infection, coughs on his hand and shakes a hand it can be passed on.

Unlikely to make much difference with shirt grabbing etc..

This. There's a difference between grabbing on to the back of someone's shirt which likely hasn't been coughed on then touching someone's hand which possibly could have been coughed into.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Alternatively a handshake is a palm to palm contact so if someone has the infection, coughs on his hand and shakes a hand it can be passed on.

Unlikely to make much difference with shirt grabbing etc..

This.

The point is that it is passed on if the virus comes into contact with the mucus linings in your mouth, inner nose or eyes. The obvious route being touching those parts of your body with your hands when the virus is on your hands.

Not much chance of it being passed onto those parts of your body from the back of your shirt or your socks.

It's just about little sensible things. The more of those we do, the more chance we've got of controlling this. And, seeing footballers not shake hands is newsworthy. It gets the message home that this is serious.

I know the accepted thing these days is to be sceptical of everything. This is time to f**king well change. Quick. This CAN be controlled if folk start taking it seriously and doing their bit to help control it. If people just say "b*llocks to it" it WILL be worse than you can imagine.

How do you fancy 25,000 people a day dying at the height of the outbreak and you knowing that you couldn't be arsed to do the little things when it mattered?