0 Members and 9 Guests are viewing this topic.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 10:33:09 pmNo IDM.That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.?
No IDM.That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.
Quote from: IDM on March 12, 2020, 10:46:01 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 10:33:09 pmNo IDM.That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?
I just can't see how non-intervention does anything other than increase the rate of infection in the near term.This has the effect of bringing the peak forwards, when the objective is to delay the peak, and extend it over a longer period to give relief to the NHS.Johnson is being led by Cummings and his nudge theory unit. The big idea is that "herd immunity" will be achieved , and the virus will peter out as more become resistant.We have no idea that this new virus will behave in this way. The evidence to date is that strong interventions at the earliest point have delivered measurable results in China, South Korea and Singapore.Why we should ignore the emerging evidence base to test an ungrounded theory is just perplexing.For your consideration;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUzGVw_iacs
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 11:29:18 pmQuote from: IDM on March 12, 2020, 10:46:01 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 10:33:09 pmNo IDM.That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?Would you argue that if a country had very few cases then stronger restrictions immediately may stop the spread.?
On reflection I think the thing with the schools is consistent. We try and keep things ticking over, close them down as infections arise. It's about managing numbers. So more are infected early on and the health service is put under stress. But those cases are being dealt with. Then as the virus ramps up, as it is going to, then we chuck everything we have at it, in the hope the peak will be pushed down, back and out longer.
He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..
Quote from: IDM on March 13, 2020, 12:03:34 amHe says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..They were discussing this on the radio while I was driving down the M1 tonight. The argument is a) Are you really going to stop kids mixing for 6 months and picking up the virus? and b) How many of them are going to end up being looked after by grandparents who are in the vulnerable demographics? So, good intentions might lead to vulnerable older people being far more exposed to the virus in large numbers.
In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine. If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.
Quote from: Donnywolf on March 12, 2020, 10:35:25 amI got slated for referring to Asian Flu on here a week or so ago as it had "no relevance" but that boomed from a start similar to this - and in 6 months from June 57 to Christmas 57 three thousand five hundred and fifty people in the UK were deadWe had no social media of course and even Telly was in its infancy and the Asian Flu would have been mentioned I am guessing only during news bulletins. I dont know I was only 6+ - but what I do know it eventually got me and my parents and brother and we were all bed ridden but recovered. I seem to remember we were in bed for "ages" probably a weekSo this outbreak essentially (I am guessing) pretty similar to that is a frightening prospect and knowing what to do is difficult because everything you touch in the outside world carries a risk - and the risk is that someone has spread it via touching train seats doors - Open Door buttons - money they paid for Tickets which you get on your change etc etc. I could drive myself batty just thinking about itHowever (eventually) I too would think I am more at risk of contracting it in a Supermarket than going to the Game tomorrowWolfie you are dead right about 1 thing in your post you definitely won't catch it at the game TOMORROW 😷😄
I got slated for referring to Asian Flu on here a week or so ago as it had "no relevance" but that boomed from a start similar to this - and in 6 months from June 57 to Christmas 57 three thousand five hundred and fifty people in the UK were deadWe had no social media of course and even Telly was in its infancy and the Asian Flu would have been mentioned I am guessing only during news bulletins. I dont know I was only 6+ - but what I do know it eventually got me and my parents and brother and we were all bed ridden but recovered. I seem to remember we were in bed for "ages" probably a weekSo this outbreak essentially (I am guessing) pretty similar to that is a frightening prospect and knowing what to do is difficult because everything you touch in the outside world carries a risk - and the risk is that someone has spread it via touching train seats doors - Open Door buttons - money they paid for Tickets which you get on your change etc etc. I could drive myself batty just thinking about itHowever (eventually) I too would think I am more at risk of contracting it in a Supermarket than going to the Game tomorrow