1/9/23 The day any sensible 'Brexit is an economic nightmare' argument died

[BillyStubbsTears]

None of which is to say that it won't turn around. But that graph shows what HAS happened, not guesstimates about what might happen in the future. We moved onto a very different trajectory after 2015/16.

[Branton Red]

Billy

I'd like to investigate the data you're referring and respond.

However when I click the link you've posted I just get an error message.

Perhaps you can help me out there?

The obvious answer to your point is how do the similar graphs for the other European G7 members compare i.e. Germany/France/Italy.

i.e. Is there a Brexit issue or more broadly a European one?

Clearly the fact that I've proven the UK has outperformed these countries since 2016 means the answer to this is an obvious one.

You really can't summarily dismiss the fact that the UK has, and is forecast to continue to, outperform the other big European economies over nearly a decade and a half from the Brexit vote.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I didn't post a link. Just a graph. The data is in the IMF dataset that you linked to.

[Branton Red]

I didn't post a link. Just a graph. The data is in the IMF dataset that you linked to.

Got it. Apologies wasn't coming up before.

The answer to your point is how do the similar graphs for the other European G7 members compare i.e. Germany/France/Italy.

i.e. Is there a Brexit issue or more broadly a European one?

Clearly the fact that I've proven the UK has outperformed these countries since 2016 means the answer to this question is an obvious one.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Apologies. It's a click or two away.

This is where I got the data from.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/MAE

[BillyStubbsTears]

Same graph for Germany.

[Branton Red]

Billy

You're comparing UK GDP versus the G7's collective GDP over time.

The US makes up approx 2/3rds of the G7's total GDP.

I'll repeat 2016-2022 GDP growth for European G7 members plus add the US in: -

US 15.0%; UK 9.5%; France 8.3%; Germany 7.8%; Italy 5.5%

The US economy growing so comparatively strongly, and the US being such a comparatively bigger economy, is diluting the share of G7 GDP of the other countries.

All your graph is confirming is that the US has grown remarkably fast versus Western Europe over the last 7 years. Hardly advocating the EU btw.

It says nothing whatsoever about Brexit or a respondent change in the UK's growth prospects.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

Are you suggesting the data is skewed by something very positive happening to the US economy around 2016? Something that negatively affected the UK ratio, but didn't do so anything like to the same extent to the German ratio?

I can feel Ockham's Razor sharpening.

[Branton Red]

Are you seriously suggesting that the US economy performing so comparatively well in this period is due to Brexit?

PS the US performed similarly to the European nations in 16/17 - only from 2018 did the US economy begin to do much better.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

Read my post again. I'm saying nothing of the sort.

[Branton Red]

Ok apologies - that was how I read you're previous post.

The reason the UK ratio was hit more than Germany's (despite the fact that the UK has grown faster than Germany in 2016-22) is because the graph is clearly from simplistic data not taking into consideration exchange rate movements. The £ fell in value in 2016 after the referendum which is where the difference in UK v Germany graphs lies.

I provide evidence that the UK has/is expected to grow faster than the other 3 big European G7 economies over the short to medium term (13 years!) after the referendum/Brexit up to 2028 at least. 3 countries that have stayed in the EU so provide a good comparison.

You criticise me for only comparing to 3 countries.

You then provide a graph which effectively solely proves: -

- The UK (as has the rest of Western Europe) performed worse than one economy (US) which isn't even in the EU over only 7 years.
- That the EUs main economic rival is massively outperforming it
- That the £ fell in value in 2016 (which we already knew)

Amateur hour.

You can't blame each of France, Germany, Italy under performing economically against the UK consistently over a forecast 13 years on their short-run economic policies or the effects of exogenous shocks.

You can want Brexit to be a major problem with all your heart but you are only fooling yourself if you a) ignore what the actual economic data is telling you and b) concoct ludicrous stories which may convince yourself that you're right but don't hold up to any form of serious professional scrutiny.

[Glyn_Wigley]

No I haven't 'added them together'.

We're comparing growth over a period of time.

So for instance 2016-2018. You start each country at a base of 100 and apply the growth each year as a %. This works out the growth over a period.

E.g. UK growth of 2.2% in 2016; 2.4% in 2017; 1.7% in 2018.

Start at 100; after 2016 102.20; after 2017 104.65 (102.20 x 1.024); after 2018 106.43 (102.2 x 1.024 x 1.017)

So we know in the 3 years 2016-8 the UK economy grew overall 6.43%.

Do the same for e.g. France starting again at a base of 100 calculated the same way and you get your comparative.

I've just input the GDP growth data for each country into a spreadsheet using the above formula to work it out.

Well, I've just worked out the 2016-2028 growth according to those figures for the UK and it came to 17.51% not the 19.6% you came up with. So I checked it and it came up 17.51% again.

[Branton Red]

Hey Glyn

This reminds me of being audited at work 

These are the figures I used 2016 2.2%; 2017 2.4%; 2018 1.6%; 2019 1.7%; 2020 -10.4%; 2021 8.7%; 2022 4.0%; 2023 0.4%; 2024 1.0%; 2025 2.2%; 2026 2.0%; 2027 1.8%; 2028 1.5%

All from the IMF. Except 2020 and 2021 updated by the ONS as per the OP and 2023 IMF forecast updated to 0.4% - as per link you posted.

Your number is still higher than Germany and Italy and only fractionally behind France so I don't think alters my main argument re Brexit not being a nightmare economically

[Glyn_Wigley]

Hey Glyn

This reminds me of being audited at work 

These are the figures I used 2016 2.2%; 2017 2.4%; 2018 1.6%; 2019 1.7%; 2020 -10.4%; 2021 8.7%; 2022 4.0%; 2023 0.4%; 2024 1.0%; 2025 2.2%; 2026 2.0%; 2027 1.8%; 2028 1.5%

All from the IMF. Except 2020 and 2021 updated by the ONS as per the OP and 2023 IMF forecast updated to 0.4% - as per link you posted.

Your number is still higher than Germany and Italy and only fractionally behind France so I don't think alters my main argument re Brexit not being a nightmare economically

Well, I did used to be an Excise & Inland Customs auditor..! I just don't always take figures at face value, I like to check them.

I get where you've got your percentages from now, but it does beg the question that if the UK GDP figures have been updated since that graph was made, have the other countries GDP's been updated too and that the graph data is out-of-date for them too?

[Branton Red]

Ha ha fair enough! It shows! And yes fair point - so do I in fact.

Here you go BBC article on the ONS upgrade www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680188

States 3rd last paragraph that France/Germany/Italy haven't updated their numbers similarly.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Ha ha fair enough! It shows! And yes fair point - so do I in fact.

Here you go BBC article on the ONS upgrade www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680188

States 3rd last paragraph that France/Germany/Italy haven't updated their numbers similarly.

That paragraph is referring to their own national statistics (like our ONS who the article is about), not the IMF figures though.

[Branton Red]

Ha ha fair enough! It shows! And yes fair point - so do I in fact.

Here you go BBC article on the ONS upgrade www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680188

States 3rd last paragraph that France/Germany/Italy haven't updated their numbers similarly.

That paragraph is referring to their own national statistics (like our ONS who the article is about), not the IMF figures though.

You ask much more pertinent questions than the 20 somethings that come auditing me!

And you've caught me out as well.

I assumed the IMF change to the UK's 2023 forecast was a stand alone thing - there was much brouhaha in the press about it at the time if you remember.

Turns out they reconsidered all country forecasts at the same time for 2023 and 2024 (not 2025-8) and updated the 2022 figures (inc UK). My mistake.

That was in July www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023

I'd previously stated 2016-28 actual/forecast growth as: -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

After the IMFs July update it is now: -

UK 19.8%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 12.2%

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton

Are you saying that, to assess our economic performance after the Brexit vote, we should simply ignore the huge drop in the value of sterling that occurred immediately after the vote and take the next day as the datum?

That seems to me to be what you are saying. But there are at least 3 problems with that.

1) The devaluation of sterling meant that the market immediately viewed our economy as producing significantly less worth than it had previously. In simple terms, we were a lot poorer in global terms than we would otherwise have been. One unit of our output would be able to buy much less on global markets than we had previously assumed. (That devaluation by the way isn't just an abstract problem. It led to a jump in inflation and 2-3 years of falling real wages for all of us.)

2) A devalued currency is the classic means of giving a weak economy a chance to reboot and grow, because it makes its exports cheaper on the global market. All other things being equal, it leads to a boost in economic output. So at least some of the growth we've had since then (growth from a greatly depressed baseline) is due to that. It seems you want to embrace the growth figures, while ignoring the big initial drop in the datum level. I'm only an amateur as you keep pointing out and you are the professional, but may I say that seems to be a little inconsistent.

3) You yourself have previously pointed out that our currency has regained much of the value it lost in late June 2016. All other thing being equal, that would eliminate the drop in relative GDP that the devaluation produced. But it hasn't. At best our economy has levelled off relative to G7 levels over the past few years.

I'll stick to my interpretation if you will allow me to as an amateur observer. We appear to have moved from a long term trend of improvement relative to the G7 before 2016 to one of, at best, stagnation at a lower level.

As for IMF predictions of future growth, they don't havecthe best track record on that. Have a look at their predictions of our growth in the early 2010s which consistently, and by a wide margin proved hopelessly optimistic compared to what actually happened.

[SydneyRover]

Not an economist either so I look for real world evidence .............

https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/#:~:text=There%20are%20more%20than%201300,run%20from%20schools%20and%20hospitals.

The UK is not robinson crusoe as far as having foodbanks but the trend of usage doesn't show much optimism.

Added: from the link

"There are more than 1300 food bank centres in the Trussell Trust’s UK-wide network. The Independent Food Aid Network has identified at least 1,172 independent food banks, while there are also Salvation Army food banks as well as food banks run from schools and hospitals''

[drfchound]

It isn’t just the UK that relies on food banks.
From the Australian 2022 food bank report:

Over 2 million households in Australia (21%) have experienced severe food insecurity in the last 12 months

“
Same amount of income (husband works) and I am a mum on carers payment for a special needs child. Same bills, same groceries, same amount of clothing/shoes, same amount of fuel for the vehicle etc – the only thing that has changed is that the prices of all the normal things have gone up but income/payments remain the same. So that means now we have to cut down on groceries. Adults go without meals so the kids can eat. So, cutting down on groceries is our only option.

We don’t do anything. We don’t go out for restaurant meals or takeaway, no holidays, don’t buy coffees from cafes. We go out the house for work, grocery shopping, taking kids to school and picking them up, driving to medical appointments and to the local park so our kids can do something over the weekend that is free and close to home. It’s really sad that it’s come to this.

”
A mum in country Queensland.

[Sprotyrover]

Germany has 2,000 https://www.dw.com/en/german-food-banks-in-crisis/a-66244397
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50324852

[SydneyRover]

Not surprised sprot ........

''Germany is not only UNHCR's second-largest donor, but also has become the third largest refugee-hosting country in the world, with 2.2 million refugees, and an important resettlement country. Since the outbreak of the war on the Ukraine, over 900.000 refugees from Ukraine have received temporary protection in Germany''

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+mant+refugees+have+settled+in+germany&rlz=1C1VDKB_en-GBAU957AU957&oq=how+mant+refugees+have+settled+in+germany+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTE3MTUyajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Sprotyrover]

Here you go Sydders
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi5_M-XgpGBAxWzRkEAHagzD9EQFnoECBAQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FAskAnAustralian%2Fcomments%2F125jdjy%2Fwhy_doesnt_australia_try_to_increase_their%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DIt%2520can%2520hopefully%2520support%2520100%2Ctry%2520to%2520increase%2520their%2520population%253F&usg=AOvVaw1VsJ0s-O70fhqaEt54_dKr&opi=89978449

[Sprotyrover]

Another one for you Sydders https://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/france/281121/seven-million-people-france-rely-food-banks-reports-leading-charity

[SydneyRover]

Are your posts related to the OP sprot?

[Sprotyrover]

Are your posts related to the OP sprot?

It's a reply to your post slippery Syd !

[SydneyRover]

I guess that's you having a pop at me rather than the topic then sprot?

[Sprotyrover]

I guess that's you having a pop at me rather than the topic then sprot?

I was pointing out that food banks are not exclusive to Britain, it's rather sad that Germany also has a problem with folks struggling to feed themselves, tonight on France 24 they announced asylum applications in Europe were 519,000 which is a third higher than last year , Germany having 30% of the figure.
Having just visited in June, I can confirm that the 'wirkschaft wonder jahren,are well and truly over!

[SydneyRover]

So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?

[Sprotyrover]

So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?

War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?