1/9/23 The day any sensible 'Brexit is an economic nightmare' argument died

[SydneyRover]

So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?

War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?

easy peasy sprot, it's what you get when you get when you cross a hollowed out political party and rich supporters with zero conscience.

[normal rules]

Looks like the uk has dodged a bullet in that the EU are about to increase demands from member states for their 21-27 budget to the tune of around £56billion at a time when Germany, Italy and France are all suffering financial struggles.
The EU are quite literally running out of other peoples money.

[Sprotyrover]

So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?

War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?

easy peasy sprot, it's what you get when you get when you cross a hollowed out political party and rich supporters with zero conscience.

Which parties in which Euro Zone countries are you on about Sydders?

[SydneyRover]

hang on a sec sprot I'll get you a clean bib

[drfchound]

Jeeez, nothing changes.

[Sprotyrover]

hang on a sec sprot I'll get you a clean bib

Why do I need a clean Bib?

[Sprotyrover]

So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?

War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?

easy peasy sprot, it's what you get when you get when you cross a hollowed out political party and rich supporters with zero conscience.

Like this one for example? https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjc4N7cwJiBAxV4V0EAHQDQB-sQFnoECBEQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fuk-news%2F2022%2Fdec%2F09%2Flabour-would-fast-track-asylum-cases-from-safe-countries-to-clear-backlog%23%3A~%3Atext%3DCooper%2520told%2520Radio%25204%27s%2520Today%2Cswiftly%2520decided%2520and%2520swiftly%2520returned.&usg=AOvVaw1DSP096Qgxk_LaGXQlbMra&opi=89978449

[drfchound]

There is still room for the Albanians sproty.
There are still a few shops in Copley Road that don’t have Albanians running them.

[normal rules]

Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”

Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .

[Iberian Red]

It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?

[Iberian Red]

Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”

Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .

Try googling racism in the police force and you'll find the same result.

[Sprotyrover]

Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”

Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .

Try googling racism in the police force and you'll find the same result.

Well the Police Force is recruited from Joe Public,Which says a lot about our society ,where should it be recruited from?

[normal rules]

It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?

Is google racist then?

[wilts rover]

Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”

Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .

Try googling racism in the police force and you'll find the same result.

Well the Police Force is recruited from Joe Public,Which says a lot about our society ,where should it be recruited from?

The non-paedophilic, non-racist, non-misognist, non-criminal part of it.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/paedophile-police-officers-met-police-laxton-addis-images-watkinson-b1083768.html
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/paedophile-police-officer-who-groomed-29556160
https://www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/23679078.met-police-officer-filmed-sex-tape-paedophiles-house/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-66686561
https://www.cps.gov.uk/north-west/news/former-police-officer-guilty-child-sex-offences

[wilts rover]

Back on topic it's good to see Rishi using his background and contacts to get the amazing trade deals we were promised that the rest of the world would be desperate to have because of Brexit.

Oh.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/08/narendra-modi-postpones-rishi-sunak-talks-ahead-g20-summit/

[Iberian Red]

It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?

Is google racist then?

Did you try googling racism in the police force?

[normal rules]

It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?

Is google racist then?

Did you try googling racism in the police force?

Google racism in the nhs, prison service, fire service. Government .
Any walk of life for that matter.

My comment about Albanian crime in the uk was not racist. It’s fact.

[Iberian Red]

Mine about the police force is fact.

[Branton Red]

Billy

In response to your Reply 47 above. Virtually every sentence is theoretically or factually incorrect.

Your graph shows a fall in Sterling then the very strong relative growth of by far the G7s largest economy (US) – and nothing else. It's startling that you insist otherwise on being informed.

It categorically does not show a fall in UK growth prospects (apart from against the booming US).

In the UK we transact and measure the value of our incomes and wealth in £s not $s. This is a fundamental point you are ignoring.

It makes no difference to UK residents that our incomes and wealth are lower in foreign currencies – except when we go on foreign holidays. Your datum level argument is complete nonsense.

Yes movements in exchange rates impact economic growth but not simply or proportionally as your  interpretation of the graph suggests you think. It depends on the country.

One with a large trade surplus benefits from a lower exchange rate as it's exports become cheaper. Hence why China deliberately seeks to devalue it's currency (fancy ringing Xi and telling him he's depressing his country's future growth rate?!).

One with a large trade deficit (i.e. UK) is likely to suffer from a lower exchange as the benefits of having cheaper exports are outweighed by the extra cost of imports. However you are completely wrong to say the fall in the £ in 2016 resulted in 2-3 years of falling real wages – look it up.

Your analysis that some of the UK's superior growth is due to the fall in the £ is both theoretically incorrect and not backed up by trade data.

GDP growth figures are impacted by every and all economic factors from inflation, unemployment, wage growth and changes in foreign currency rates. Your accusation that I'm ignoring exchange rates movements is therefore completely wrong and perplexing.

Here's a lesson on interpretation in economics. For future events: Theory first; Data second. For past events: Data first; Theory second.

The UK has provably grown faster than each of the 3 big EU economies both since the referendum; since leaving the EU; and since leaving the Single Market.

Time for you to accept this FACT and confront what it is showing you.

And please stop your professional/amateur schtick. When you come out with such drivel it makes you look exceedingly foolish.

[Branton Red]

And Billy.

This fully deserves a separate post.

I know you were insulted previously when I proclaimed you to be a hypocrite. So look away now.

How often have you referenced, ridiculed and denigrated Michael Gove (not incorrectly) for his comment on economic experts because their opinions countered his argument:

“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong”

And yet when you're confronted with expert economic opinion which contradicts your opinion you are guilty of the self-same thing. Pathetic!

Economic forecasting is not easy. The IMF provides regular forecasts on practically every nation. It is very easy to find examples of where they were wrong historically. But that does not detract from their expertise – which is far higher than yours or mine.

Their record on comparative economic performance, which is what I'm referencing, is actually very good – as you'd expect from such experts.

[SydneyRover]

Questions for the experts

Per capita GDP, distribution and wealth accumulation, how does social mobility affect this. Do countries that distribute wealth more fairly have better structured economies albeit possibly with a smaller economy overall.

Is it possible that those that live in countries with higher levels of social mobility receive a larger share of distributed wealth which gives them a better standard of living than those that don't.

Are any of the above valid questions?

[normal rules]

Mine about the police force is fact.

Mine about the nhs is fact.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj1rvCFzJ-BAxW4WUEAHfu0B0AQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bmj.com%2Fcontent%2F382%2Fbmj.p1595&usg=AOvVaw10nWSmpqHqyul0VDI1j7IO&opi=89978449

You clearly have a hang up with the police in particular.

[SydneyRover]

Mine about the police force is fact.

Mine about the nhs is fact.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj1rvCFzJ-BAxW4WUEAHfu0B0AQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bmj.com%2Fcontent%2F382%2Fbmj.p1595&usg=AOvVaw10nWSmpqHqyul0VDI1j7IO&opi=89978449

You clearly have a hang up with the police in particular.

I guess educating the xenophobes would be a good place to start aye?

[hoolahoop]

It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?

It never does must like the ones where every Immigrant used the streets of Hexthorpe as a toilet

[hoolahoop]

Xenophobia seems to haunt every corner of our so called democratic and fair society. Every organisation we look at in this country seems riddled with this anti- social disease.
Just when is our society going to grow up, we call out Hungary etc whilst treating non- white Brits as 2nd class citizens

[SydneyRover]

When those at the top of the food chain show that something is acceptable then it's more readily adopted by those on the next tier, and so on. It's been a repeating theme in right wing politics and instead of people refusing to accept it some of them join the cheer squad. It's a waste of energy and disrupts life everywhere it rears its head. It's totally not exclusive to right wing politics.

[Branton Red]

Questions for the experts

Per capita GDP, distribution and wealth accumulation, how does social mobility affect this. Do countries that distribute wealth more fairly have better structured economies albeit possibly with a smaller economy overall.

Is it possible that those that live in countries with higher levels of social mobility receive a larger share of distributed wealth which gives them a better standard of living than those that don't.

Are any of the above valid questions?

Hey Sydney

You need the Gini Index which measures a country's level of inequality. The lower the number (out of 100) the lower the inequality.

There are several countries with very low Gini scores and very high GDP per capita e.g. Scandinavia and Benelux countries.

So you can have low inequality and high living standards.

The counter argument, esp for the big Western economies, is the US. It's Gini score is atrociously high but it's GDP per capita is much higher than most other big economies and, as I've alluded to above, it's economic growth rate in recent years is much higher too.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I truly don't know how to respond to an argument that says:

1) I'm going to use IMF figures which give GDP in constant dollars.

2) I'm going to get really condescending cross at someone who takes into account the effect of sterling value falling in 2016.

and

3) I'm going to use the post 2016 growth figures, and ignore  the fact that they cover a period in which sterling appreciated to close to its pre-Brexit vote value.

If that's the state of the discussion,  I'm more than happy to stop using the "expert/amateur" thing that you yourself introduced.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS.

Hand up from me on the real wage thing. I should have said "suppressed real wages" rather than "falling". From the 2016 vote, real wage growth dropped rapidly from the ~2-3% it had been for the previous 3 years (since the end of Hard Austerity). It went negative for 12-15 months then slowly recovered to pre-Brexit vote levels. The three year period was the length of time that real wage growth was suppressed below the prior level.

I assume you accept that 3 years of suppressed real wage growth (which scrubbed about £2-2.5k per year off real wages) was the direct result of the jump in inflation which followed the crash in sterling, which itself was due to the vote?

[Branton Red]

Billy

The OP is comparing UK GDP growth versus countries which use the Euro.

The £:Euro exchange rate has stayed pretty constant since 2016.

No reason to believe it shouldn't continue to do so up to 2028.

I am taking into account the 2016 fall in Sterling with the historic comparisons - as GDP growth is all encompassing.

It is you that are irrelevantly bringing comparison to US economic growth into the equation.