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Lots of things can happen in 2 years. Civil disobedience and unrest are on the horizon.If Keith turns his back on the Unions, that red wall could soon be in danger.I'm still predicting a hung parliament; and if Labour's the biggest Party, Keith will have to do some more reneging.
the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
The error bars on a poll at this stage are very wide, and the poll does not do anything other than give a temporary snapshot.There is no read through to voting intentions at a distant election.What is interesting in the red wall is the numbers who will choose not to vote.I think that disengagement will increase, but that remains to be seen the extent to which it has an impact.
Quote from: bpoolrover on August 10, 2022, 12:49:42 pmthe latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long agoStrange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .
That Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.
Quote from: albie on August 10, 2022, 03:54:19 pmThat Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.You're lecturing me on stats and uncertainty?
Quote from: scawsby steve on August 10, 2022, 05:04:35 amLots of things can happen in 2 years. Civil disobedience and unrest are on the horizon.If Keith turns his back on the Unions, that red wall could soon be in danger.I'm still predicting a hung parliament; and if Labour's the biggest Party, Keith will have to do some more reneging.Who's Keith?
Quote from: drfchound on August 10, 2022, 05:12:36 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on August 10, 2022, 12:49:42 pmthe latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long agoStrange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.Pure coincidence I know. They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.Again, a coincidence.
Quote from: BigH on August 10, 2022, 06:18:09 pmQuote from: drfchound on August 10, 2022, 05:12:36 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on August 10, 2022, 12:49:42 pmthe latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long agoStrange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.Pure coincidence I know. They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.Again, a coincidence. I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of elections
Quote from: bpoolrover on August 11, 2022, 02:09:27 amQuote from: BigH on August 10, 2022, 06:18:09 pmQuote from: drfchound on August 10, 2022, 05:12:36 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on August 10, 2022, 12:49:42 pmthe latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long agoStrange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.Pure coincidence I know. They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.Again, a coincidence. I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of electionsFair enough .I just happen to think that their national polling over the last few months has been a bit erratic.
Quote from: BigH on August 11, 2022, 01:30:49 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on August 11, 2022, 02:09:27 amQuote from: BigH on August 10, 2022, 06:18:09 pmQuote from: drfchound on August 10, 2022, 05:12:36 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on August 10, 2022, 12:49:42 pmthe latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long agoStrange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.Pure coincidence I know. They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.Again, a coincidence. I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of electionsFair enough .I just happen to think that their national polling over the last few months has been a bit erratic. i agree i have seen massive differences ranging from 13 points to 4 points, whatever the polls say the tories have to sort themselves out to have any chance at the minute
I've found the only one that matters (and can be very reasonably accurate) will be the Exit Poll at a few seconds past 10pm on GE dayHopefully it will say at the very worst " No overall Majority but Labour are the largest Party". After that I will go immediately to bed waking up at 6 am to see if they were right.
Quote from: Donnywolf on August 11, 2022, 07:09:56 amI've found the only one that matters (and can be very reasonably accurate) will be the Exit Poll at a few seconds past 10pm on GE dayHopefully it will say at the very worst " No overall Majority but Labour are the largest Party". After that I will go immediately to bed waking up at 6 am to see if they were right.I think that's exactly what it will say, Wolfie. Then you'll see Keith frantically snake-oiling about looking for deals to prop his government up, even though he's pledged he won't.