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Quote from: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 12:27:02 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:54:25 amQuote from: albie on March 14, 2020, 02:16:25 amI have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.htmlNo more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.Albie.I entirely agree. On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.The country voted emphatically not to have Labour representation inside Downing Street .If we had a government without a majority then you'd probably make a decent point given the circumstances facing the UK at this moment .We had a democratically elected Govt with a huge majority in May 1940. I don't understand your point.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:54:25 amQuote from: albie on March 14, 2020, 02:16:25 amI have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.htmlNo more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.Albie.I entirely agree. On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.The country voted emphatically not to have Labour representation inside Downing Street .If we had a government without a majority then you'd probably make a decent point given the circumstances facing the UK at this moment .
Quote from: albie on March 14, 2020, 02:16:25 amI have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.htmlNo more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.Albie.I entirely agree. On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.htmlNo more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks. It is a collosal global and national crisis.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 03:34:49 pmThis virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks. It is a collosal global and national crisis.Just to offer a bit of perspective Billy .https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-daily-deaths/
Tyke,I think you should consider the opinion of Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet;https://twitter.com/richardhorton1The letter to the Times sums up the need to provide the information to back up the policy choices of the government.There is a concern that when Johnson talks about "the science", he means behavioral science, Dominic Cummings pet project. The wider scientific community mean Epidemiology should lead, with BS following behind that primary concern.
Tyke.Do you understand the concept of exponential growth in epidemics? If not, I suggest you do a bit of research before you wade in here again.And suggesting I am wanting to get Labour into Government by the backdoor is beneath contempt. If that's you're level of contribution, you are going on block. Utterly contemptible.
Adam.1) Listen to the epidemiologists who study these things every working day. They say epidemics generally double in numbers every 5 days.So, 15 doublings would take 75 days. 10.5 weeks.Even if they are wrong and the 10% per day increase is right the doubling rate is 7.2 days. So 15 doublings in 108 days, or 15 weeks.The CSA said yesterday to expect the peak in 10-14 weeks.Like I say, I just don't understand why you keep arguing with ME on this, when all I am doing is repeating what global experts in the subject are saying. And yes, like I've been saying for weeks, China cut this by closing the country down. There is no country in the West willing or able to do this. Not least because of the number of people who simply will not accept expert advice.
Adam.But it is NOT a couple of weeks.It takes 6-8 weeks at least to eradicate it in your own country. Then you need to prevent it coming back in again from outside, by the most Draconian border controls. It is not going to happen here. We are not set up to do it.
If the government want to do something that will have a major impact on people's working lives especially those just about surviving which is significant then I suggest they raise the statutory sick pay entitlement to the level of the minimum wage .This should be implemented straight away and remain as long as the virus remains an official pandemic .Over to you Boris .