once upon a long time ago

[wilts rover]

Once upon a long time ago there was a boy who dreamed he could change the fortunes of DRFC. In the days and months after the appointment of Sean O'Driscoll as manager there was a huge groundswell of opinion against him and campaigns to get him out. So much so that when JR asked the supporters director to calm the situation civil war broke out.
Gradually the style of football that Sean O'D wanted to introduce started proving successful and the club moved upwards and onwards. But still there is an undercurrent among elements of the support who didnt like their humble pie and hated to be proved wrong. It reminds me of those Japanese soldiers lost on a pacific atoll after WW2 fighting on long after the war has finished. They couldn't and wouldn't believe they have lost and any chance to snipe and cause chaos they took. It was I think 32 years before the last one gave up - 32 years, its a long time to bear a grudge and know you are wrong..., who was this boy - a secret only known by the many named man...

[Guernsey Exile]

You ok Wilts?

[ravenrover]

H R Puffenstuff?

[CusworthRovers]

BST?

[BillyStubbsTears]

CusworthRovers wrote:

BST?

Silly boy. How could you possibly think that?

Wilts is talking about folk who have chips on their shoulders.

I on the other hand, have simply been hard, fair and consistent in my opinions, and the scourge of those on here who would commit the cardinal sin of being revisionist historians.

[CusworthRovers]

As I said, BST

[RobTheRover]

Talking of which, isnt it time we had the patented BST \"standard SOD season\" analysis?  I mean we are a third of the way into the season now, and no sign of the 1st qtr and early 2nd qtr analysis yet.

Tsk, BST.  Shame on you! ;-)

[The Red Baron]

Yes, but this season is showing a different pattern. More of a win one-lose one scenario rather than the usual peaks and troughs.

[RobTheRover]

Ah, but, who is to say that the pattern isnt EXACTLY the same, and that the points haul from the traditionally poor 1st qtr isn't a portent of a superb 2nd qtr, decent 3rd qtr , and tail off in the 4th qtr (but hopefully have enough in the bag to make the Playoffs at least....)

;-)

[BillyStubbsTears]

RobTheRover wrote:

Talking of which, isnt it time we had the patented BST \"standard SOD season\" analysis?  I mean we are a third of the way into the season now, and no sign of the 1st qtr and early 2nd qtr analysis yet.

Tsk, BST.  Shame on you! ;-)

Patience me old sparra. You'll get it when there is sufficient data.
Remember, I've never said that O'Driscoll's sides are always shut early doors. Merely that they get better in the middle part of the season.

Much too early to say for definite if that is going to happen this year, but the trend looks right. We got 13 points from the first 10 matches and 9 from the next 5.

Since you're so eager, I'll do you a running average graph later on to make the point.

If he sticks to form, you'd better get your Salford A-Z's bought for next season.

[RobTheRover]

If we win tomorrw, I'll start to believe.  9pts from 5 is win-lose-win-lose-win.  We need a couple of win-win-win's in there.

[Mike_F]

I wheeled out the old BST trend analysis when chatting pre-match on Saturday.

If we can fulfil the usual trend then we be buttoning those pockets down come May. If anyone in this division wins three games on the spin it catapults them right up the table - I'm keeping the faith!

[Dutch Uncle]

wilts rover wrote:

Once upon a long time ago there was a boy who dreamed he could change the fortunes of DRFC. In the days and months after the appointment of Sean O'Driscoll as manager there was a huge groundswell of opinion against him and campaigns to get him out. So much so that when JR asked the supporters director to calm the situation civil war broke out.
Gradually the style of football that Sean O'D wanted to introduce started proving successful and the club moved upwards and onwards. But still there is an undercurrent among elements of the support who didnt like their humble pie and hated to be proved wrong. It reminds me of those Japanese soldiers lost on a pacific atoll after WW2 fighting on long after the war has finished. They couldn't and wouldn't believe they have lost and any chance to snipe and cause chaos they took. It was I think 32 years before the last one gave up - 32 years, its a long time to bear a grudge and know you are wrong..., who was this boy - a secret only known by the many named man...

Am I the only one thinking this is referring to Yaurs Truly and not BST?

[BillyStubbsTears]

There you go chaps. The graph shows, at any point in time, the points we've won over the last five games, divided by the average points we won over the whole season (or season to date in the case of this year).

So, if you're at 1, that means that over the last five matches, the form has been identical to how it has been over the whole season - 2 means you're form is twice as good, 0.5 means half as good.

The data for this season is a bit pointless at the moment - if we go on a brilliant run from here, the curve over the first few matches will go lower because our season's average points per game will go up, so the points that we won in the first 5 matches would then be less than our season average and push the curve down below 1.

But it does show that the form so far has not been wildly out of sync with what O'Driscoll usually does.

Last thought lads and lasses. Not for the last 9 years has an O'Driscoll team finished the season in a position lower than they were in after 10-11 matches. Usually, his teams have finished 6-10 places higher than they were after 11 games.

After 11 games this season, we were in 12th place.

 

[CusworthRovers]

I think we are yet to see the best of this team. It just needs a consistent 11 and we will start to crank the gears up another level.

As said, a nice 8 game unbeaten run (wins and draws) will throw us right in the mix. I can feel it in my piss, it's on it's way. I can see it starting in about another 3 games or so, if we keep a consistent side that knows the drill.

[Superspy]

BillyStubbsTears wrote:

Last thought lads and lasses. Not for the last 9 years has an O'Driscoll team finished the season in a position lower than they were in after 10-11 matches. Usually, his teams have finished 6-10 places higher than they were after 11 games.

the hairs on the back of my neck just went mental.

and cussy, i think if we managed to pull an 8 game unbeaten run out of the bag, with the way this season is shaping up, we'll be in 3rd, and snapping at cardiff and qprs heels, lol

[CusworthRovers]

Tall order, but I see no reason why not. We look stronger than ever from front to back.

Last season we went on a run of 1 loss with 6 wins

The season before we lost 1 out of 12!!!.............Sweet Jesus I also just noted that dark run of 10 losses and 2 draws. What a season that was