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https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 24, 2021, 01:48:57 pmhttps://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice. And how did the government know there was going to be another wave in the summer ?
What's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure
Genuinely interested, the folk who were predicting Exponential growth. Why do we think this doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment? Restrictions have been relaxed, and if we’re honest many folk had started relaxing these long before it was official, we’ve had big sporting events, Wimbledon, euros, F1, theatres, concerts, nightclubs opening. Yet the cases are dropping, and quite significantly at the moment. So without wanting an argument why do the people who were predicting the opposite think this is happening?
Quote from: bpoolrover on July 24, 2021, 09:23:41 pmWhat's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure But the cases were just following the pattern that was forming before the euros it just seems now the pattern has slowed down now or even halted. It was only 10 days after the euros final before the cases have started to fall you would’ve thought the euros effect would still be prevalent now when you consider the delay in symptoms etc
Quote from: dickos1 on July 24, 2021, 09:11:10 pmGenuinely interested, the folk who were predicting Exponential growth. Why do we think this doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment? Restrictions have been relaxed, and if we’re honest many folk had started relaxing these long before it was official, we’ve had big sporting events, Wimbledon, euros, F1, theatres, concerts, nightclubs opening. Yet the cases are dropping, and quite significantly at the moment. So without wanting an argument why do the people who were predicting the opposite think this is happening? I would guess that last weekend saw a spike in infections after the European championships finale the week before, when many people allowed themselves to socialise.After the football championships finished, people returned to being more cautious. So new infections fell back again.Unless it's the effect of schools breaking up, reducing social mixing of unvaccinated kids and lowering infection rates.Perhaps both things.I think we need to wait a couple more weeks to get a better impression of what's going on.
You need to drill down into the data rather than look at the headline figures.The figures that get the headlines are the new cases by the day they are REPORTED. But what is far more useful for seeing trends is to look at new cases based on the day the test took place. The cases by reporting date suffer from the fact that day to day, there are random delays between when tests happen and when they are reported.So looking at the data for tests on the day they happened is the standard. And then, because there are typically more tests done on weekdays than at weekends, you don't compare one day's results with the previous day's. You compare tests on a given day with the results on that day the week before.Looking at recent data, what does that tell us?A week last Thursday there were nearly 100% more positive results than the previous Thurs.A week last Friday there were almost 80% more than the previous Friday.Saturday and Sunday's rises were 50%.Last Monday's was about 15%.Tuesday saw a FALL of nearly 20% on the previous Tuesday. Wednesday saw a fall of 40%.I would love for these numbers to represent a genuine indication that we had reached HI and the outbreak was genuinely falling. But there is no way on God's earth that the numbers turn round that quickly at HI threshold.I reckon it is a combination of three things.1) Euros parties working their way through the system. RD was absolutely right when you look at the data. A few days after the Euros there WAS a jump in the number of new cases. That is indicated by the 100% rise a week last Thurs. That means that the following week, when that glut has worked through, there was likely to be a fall or a smaller rise.2) Schools starting to close. First ones in England started closing a week last Friday. By last Weds, most were closed. That means less regular testing of kids and less interaction between kids.3) Controversial one, but as we get into holiday period, I suspect more people with mild symptoms or +ve lateral flow tests just wouldn't go for a PCR test for fear of missing long-booked holidays. Those are all short term effects. If they, or something like them ARE the reason for this dip, we'd expect the rise to be re-established within a week or two. Let's see.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 24, 2021, 09:37:09 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on July 24, 2021, 09:23:41 pmWhat's happened is many of the high cases will have been from the euros and also the pubs been full for them, there has been other events to, so the numbers should go down for a week or so then at a guess will sharply increase due to restrictions being dropped, the hope is that they don't rise to a stupid amount but they will go up for sure But the cases were just following the pattern that was forming before the euros it just seems now the pattern has slowed down now or even halted. It was only 10 days after the euros final before the cases have started to fall you would’ve thought the euros effect would still be prevalent now when you consider the delay in symptoms etc that is possible to mate, the numbers will have to rise thou with nightclubs open simply due to mixing, what you might find thou is you often find it's the same people that go the clubs each week so maybe if they mix mainly between themselves it won't be so bad
Dickos.No. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here but you are constantly wrong in what you say.1) I NEVER use the headline figures. I always use the figures on the day the test was taken.2) There is a very good reason why you should (at the moment) consider the Euros effect and the re-opening effect differently. One happened a week before the other. So pretty much all the cases that might have been due to the Euro effect will have now been logged. Whereas most of the infections that will have been caused by the re-opening so far have not yet had time to be logged.Stop and think through the logic before you rush in to accuse me if double standards in future please. And please don't start every post with the assumption that I'm somehow trying to deceive people.
DRemember you said you're not out to provoke an argument and you wanted genuine ideas as to why we're seeing these numbers?BST has given you a breakdown of what he thinks is going on, looking at the data. So just put talk of doomsday predictions to one side, eh?The answer at this point is follow the data for a couple more weeks so we can get a better idea of what's going on.
BazThe recent drop in cases has made the headlines.But the people who publish these stories also understand the data might be misleading and know this sudden reversal isn't what we'd expect to see. That's why they are reluctant to declare the virus beaten immediately.Even the Daily Mail has been adding a note of caution in their stories.
I don't think BST suggests his forecasts are facts.