Brexit deal

[Filo]

And another kick of the can, trying to shift the blame onto Corbyn, does she think the British public are stupid?

[The Red Baron]

And another kick of the can, trying to shift the blame onto Corbyn, does she think the British public are stupid?

I think this is all about trying to persuade the ERG to come on board with her deal by threatening them with a softer Brexit, eg a Customs Union.

[Glyn_Wigley]

She's already had cross-party talks but wasn't interested in listening to anybody. Does anybody seriously think it'll be different this time? She doesn't listen to her Cabinet, I'm damn sure she won't listen to Corbyn.

If Corbyn has any sense he'll tell her to say publicly what she's willing to talk and/or compromise about before he meets with her. She wouldn't dare do that.

EDIT: A thought just came to me. May offered to resign to get her MP to vote with her. Would Corbyn be able to get May to promise a General Election as the price for him doing that?

[Filo]

How can you compromise when a pre condition is still her deal

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

And another kick of the can, trying to shift the blame onto Corbyn, does she think the British public are stupid?

I think this is all about trying to persuade the ERG to come on board with her deal by threatening them with a softer Brexit, eg a Customs Union.

This could well be it.  Have the talks, get nowhere then try her vote again.

We seem again further away from leaving.

[Glyn_Wigley]

How can you compromise when a pre condition is still her deal

And considering how much he's slagged it off in the past I can't see him agreeing to it. It's May saying 'I'm not listening' all over again.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS.

I'm going to be accused of being condescending here, but let me educate you a little. It's necessary if you're going to get this. Because you have totally misunderstood that graph.

Imagine you are driving down the A1 and you have a tracking device. At the end of you journey, you could download the data and plot a graph of your distance from Donny compared to time after you left.

The graph would generally slope from bottom left toward top right. How fast you were going at any time would be reflected by the slope of the graph at that time - the faster you're driving, the more distance you'll put between you and Donny in a given amount of time.

OK. So in general, if you plot how something is changing with time, the slope of that graph is the speed with which that something is changing.

Right

The graph that I posted shows how much the economy had grown CUMULATIVELY at any point since the end of 2008. Think of it as the economic distance that we have put between us and where we were in 2008.

But what we're talking about is GDP growth rate. THAT is what governs how well the economy is doing at any point in time. It's the speed at which we're getting richer than we were previously. So GDP growth rate is the SLOPE of that graph. The better the economy is doing, the more the graph slopes up towards the top of the page, and vice versa.


Now. Go and have a look at what happened to the slope of that graph just after the Referendum.

Get it?

You were looking for when there was a big difference between the two lines. But that's the wrong way to look at it.
 If GDP growth drops, it doesn't mean the size of the economy drops immediately. It means the rate at which we are growing slows down. So you don't necessarily notice it immediately. (But my God do you notice it over a long period...) If you want to identify when the problem arose, you look at where the slopes change and stay different. That means something big has happened to one or other of those economies.

See it? Q3 2016? A few months after the vote?

Here's a simple analogy if you don't get it.

Imagine you had to drive across America. About 5000 km. Imagine you initially drove at an average of 100km/H. Then assume you dropped your speed to 95km/h. You'd barely notice the difference at first. A minute later, you'd have travelled about 1580m, rather than the ~1650m you would have done at 100km/h. It only takes you a couple of seconds to make up that difference so you barely notice it. But now assume that you remain permanently going slower than you'd originally intended. By the time you reach your destination,  you've been behind the wheel for 2.5hours longer than if you'd stayed doing 100km/h. You'd notice that. And in the economic case, that delay is the long term loss of wealth that we'll suffer if GDP growth rate stays low. The gap between the line of what we SHOULD be doing and the line of what we ARE doing will get further and further apart. We'll have a future that becomes a lot poorer than it would have been. That means fewer roads repaired. Fewer hospitals built. Fewer coppers and nurses and metal bashers and computer programmers and teachers and doctors employed. Because we won't be able to afford as many as we would have done.

And that's the point. We have, just as experts predicted, gone onto a lower rate of growth since the vote. That wasn't due to the recent uncertainty. It happened pretty much immediately. And it's continuing to happen. And we're now significantly poorer than we would have been if we'd grown like other countries since 2016. To the extent that the average family of 4 has lost about £6.5k overall.

Clearer now?

So I'll ask again. How much would YOU be prepared to lose to take back control.


PS: Here's an irony. I've just heard today that, if we DO have a No Deal Brexit, there's a very strong chance that my own company is going to do very, very well out of it. I can't tell you the details, but it's eye watering sums for us.

But I fervently hope that doesn't happen. Because the effect of No Deal on the country as a whole will be calamitous over the next decade or two, and that's not the country I want to live in.

[Boomstick]

Do you agree that MPs f**king about causing the uncertainty has made it alot worse than it would other wise be?

Did the referendum cause a slow in growth?  Yes, but its made worse by the uncertainty, and will be temporary.

This whole thing is about British sovereignty, but all you bleet on about is the slow in growth.
Instead of admitting, you don't like the idea of British sovereignty, the monarchy and the nasty empire,.
You'd prefer a European socialist Republic, (we nearly had one in the 40's)where what we contribute greatly outweighs what we gain.

[Filo]

NEW: Just how divided is May’s cabinet? Told there was a vote: 10 cabinet ministers wanted a long ext; 14 wanted a No Deal or a short ext; 2 sat on their hands 1/2

A Cabinet Level crisis meeting and two spineless bas**rds sit on their hands, what ate they doing in Cabinet if they are incapable of making difficult decisions

[BillyStubbsTears]

So that's it? No acceptance of what you've just learned. No apology for getting it wrong before? Just move on to the next argument? No thought that you might need to reflect on the way you Marshall facts to come up with conclusions that are sensible?

That's kind of how we got here in the first place.

For what it's worth, yes I do think that what you call "MPs f**king about" and what I call "Parliamentary democratic process" has added to the uncertainty. And that will have an economic effect. But that is a short-term thing. Eventually, this will be resolved and then we'll continue off on whatever long-term economic growth we have.

What MPs are (most of them) doing is trying to flesh out a deal that saves the country from the worst of what you and your Brexit mates have tipped us into. If they find a path to do that, any short term uncertainty (and it HAS only been 3.5 months since Parliament got involved) will be a drop in the ocean compared to the effect of quickly getting it wrong.

Back to car analogies.

You are sat in the back now, screaming at the driver, "Faster! Faster! Put your f**king foot down," as he drives along a poor quality stretch of road.

If the driver drives fast and is unable to miss a pot hole which f**ks the suspension and means you have to do the rest of the journey at half-speed, was that clever? Or would it have been better to slow down for a bit and have a chance of coming out the other side of this stretch with less damage?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS.
Don't flatter yourself that you've got the first idea what I think or want. You haven't got the first idea.

Discuss this like a grown up or toddle off and leave it to grown ups to discuss.

[wilts rover]

Of all the things I thought might come out of todays 7 hour cabinet meeting this was pretty low down the list - send for Corbyn, let him sort it out!

What is she up to? I dont get the ERG backing her deal argument. If they can concoct something then it will go thro on the back of c120 May loyalists and most of Labour so the ERG are stuffed. If they can't, well they can't, so where is the pressure on the ERG as they reject her deal again and wait to leave with no deal on 11th April?

So what do you do if you are Corbyn? Go in, ask for all the things they voted for last night SM/CU/Ref knowing that if she accepts it will split her party or if she doesn't you can show you tried?

Strange days indeed.

[Filo]

For me, it’s an attempt to pass the buck to Corbyn and blame him for the mess, how can someone ask for compromise with pre conditions

[bpoolrover]

Would it be possible to put mays deal customs union to the public and let them vote on it or customs union or mays to mps whoever gets the most they go for, might not be possible of course

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

Any Ref 2 that doesn't have Remain as an option is fundamentally flawed. For two reasons.

1) If you only have variations of Leave on the ballot, that assumes that EVERYONE who voted Leave in 2016 would have rather had ANY sort of Leave outcome than a Remain outcome. It assumes that people who couldn't get their preferred sort of Leave, wold always plump for ANY other sort of Remain than ever support Leave. THAT is the basic problem with the 2016 Referendum. That assumption was hardwired into the question. And there is no evidence whatsoever that it is a correct assumption.

Whenever I've raised this issue before, the usual suspects tell me I'm talking b*llocks. They say everyone who supported Leave would prefer ANY type of Leave over Remain.

Well... Here's the DUP
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj_ptacurLhAhWluXEKHQ-JCQAQFjADegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2F2019%2Fmar%2F30%2Fdup-deputy-leader-id-rather-stay-in-eu-than-back-theresa-may-deal&usg=AOvVaw3YJIqwfLth7CCIxbS44m-F

Here's the biggest donors to Vote Leave.
https://en-gb.facebook.com/skynews/videos/i-would-rather-remain-in-that-sign-mays-deal/375605746578538/

Oh aye. And here's old Nige.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nigel-farage-lbc-radio-debate-with-alastair-campbell-1-5785730

2) Folk might just have...changed their minds!?!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's a good analogy.

Imagine 100 people want to go out for a meal. They have a vote.

Indian or Lasagne.

they vote 52-48 for Indian.

Then there's a massive argument about what Indian food to have. Some people say the Will of The People is to have a Phal. Others say a Korma would be a safer bet. Some others try to compromise with a Madras.

In the end, they decide to put it to a vote. Phal or Korma.

That would be bonkers wouldn't it? Maybe some of the people who voted for an Indian really wanted a Chicken Tikka Masala, and would prefer  Lasagne to either Phal or Korma. So why not have Lasagne on the second vote?


THAT is a pretty much exact analogy of the whole bleeding process we've been through over the past 3 years.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jesus.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1113185066644013060

Direct rule in NI? The one thing that's guaranteed to destroy the peace that's been painfully built over the past 2 decades.

I'm assuming the Govt have known all along that No Deal=Direct Rule.

If they haven't known it, they are administratively incompetent.

If they have known it, what the f**k did "No Deal is better than a bad deal" mean?

Isnt it now about time that the Leavers got over this emotional spasm and started facing up to responsibility like grown ups do?

[bpoolrover]

Bst you sound like your trying to preach to people, your obviously a very Clever man but the way you speak on here is terrible mate, if someone does not agree with you or there is no reason to patranise them, your clearly a big labour voter but you will get more respect not trying to push your views on everyone else even if there right

[bpoolrover]

Coops. Word I've heard is that the Norway+ deal will win by 50 votes.

If so, that's the least bad Brexit. Worse than staying in, because we get all the benefits of staying in and all the costs, but no say. But if that's what it takes to finish this madness without crippling us...

Also, if it's true, I've some apologising to do to Albie because he was predicting this months ago and I said I couldn't see it happening.

you were way out like every prediction you have made

[Bentley Bullet]

Here's a good analogy.

Imagine 100 people want to go out for a meal. They have a vote.

Indian or Lasagne.

they vote 52-48 for Indian.

Then there's a massive argument about what Indian food to have. Some people say the Will of The People is to have a Phal. Others say a Korma would be a safer bet. Some others try to compromise with a Madras.

In the end, they decide to put it to a vote. Phal or Korma.

That would be bonkers wouldn't it? Maybe some of the people who voted for an Indian really wanted a Chicken Tikka Masala, and would prefer  Lasagne to either Phal or Korma. So why not have Lasagne on the second vote?


THAT is a pretty much exact analogy of the whole bleeding process we've been through over the past 3 years.

Why not ask who would like good old Traditional English fish and chips?

[RedJ]

Here's a good analogy.

Imagine 100 people want to go out for a meal. They have a vote.

Indian or Lasagne.

they vote 52-48 for Indian.

Then there's a massive argument about what Indian food to have. Some people say the Will of The People is to have a Phal. Others say a Korma would be a safer bet. Some others try to compromise with a Madras.

In the end, they decide to put it to a vote. Phal or Korma.

That would be bonkers wouldn't it? Maybe some of the people who voted for an Indian really wanted a Chicken Tikka Masala, and would prefer  Lasagne to either Phal or Korma. So why not have Lasagne on the second vote?


THAT is a pretty much exact analogy of the whole bleeding process we've been through over the past 3 years.

That's a pretty shit analogy really Billy, if you've agreed to go to a restaurant you're not going to ask for something that's not on the menu.

Then again, we were promised something that wasn't on the menu when we voted to leave, so you might be onto something...

[IDM]

It’s also like a situation where as a family, we decide I should leave my employer but work for them freelance.  I agree freelance terms which my employer says are fixed, but when going back to my family they don’t agree.  My employer is happy to give me more time to decide or even stay on.  My family still can’t agree and the cliff edge approaches with a mortgage to pay..

I know what I would do..

[Boomstick]

BS.
Don't flatter yourself that you've got the first idea what I think or want. You haven't got the first idea.

Discuss this like a grown up or toddle off and leave it to grown ups to discuss.

Right, let's meet up then and discuss this face to face like grown ups.

[DonnyOsmond]

BS.
Don't flatter yourself that you've got the first idea what I think or want. You haven't got the first idea.

Discuss this like a grown up or toddle off and leave it to grown ups to discuss.

Right, let's meet up then and discuss this face to face like grown ups.

Why can't grown ups discuss it on a forum?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

So will Corbyn and May reach a deal? Probably not.

Will a longer extension then happen? Probably.

Interesting point that labour suggest if they get a deal they want they wouldn't put it to a public vote. Amazing change of policy that.

[Axholme Lion]

BS.
Don't flatter yourself that you've got the first idea what I think or want. You haven't got the first idea.

Discuss this like a grown up or toddle off and leave it to grown ups to discuss.

Right, let's meet up then and discuss this face to face like grown ups.

I thought I was back on Millwall Online 

[bobjimwilly]

I'd rather level with no deal - and to hell with it, whatever happens, happens! Two World Wars didn't finish us, not joining the single currency didn't destroy our economy. Voting to leave didn't plunge us into recession. So who knows? The 'experts' might be right and it could be the worst thing we've done - or it could all be exaggerated and ultimately unravel as untrue scaremongering.

Why are you putting quotes around experts? Leading economists in their field are experts, and they're the ones telling us it will put the country back years in terms of economic growth.
No-one in remain is saying things will be like war-time - THAT is scaremongering by leave campaigners, putting words into other people's mouth.
Saying "whatever happens, happens" is a terrible f**king way to run a country! You wouldn't even say that when you make your tea... "I'll just throw everything from the fridge in a pan and whatever happens, happens" And if you're not prepared to do it with a meal, don't f**king dream of doing it with the country ffs

Then again, I'd rather Tony Blair had not allowed immigration numbers to be so high in the first place as then maybe 'Vote Remain' would have won, as you don't have to be Albert Einstein to work out that the mass flow of EU foreigners onto these shores made some folk vote to leave in the first place and gave the likes of Nigel Farage ammunition.

So it's Tony Blair's fault? lol

[Axholme Lion]

Nobody knows what will happen under any of the ridiculous number of different outcomes - not even the 'experts' who offer their wisdom on this forum, rather than in Westminster.

I'd rather level with no deal - and to hell with it, whatever happens, happens! Two World Wars didn't finish us, not joining the single currency didn't destroy our economy. Voting to leave didn't plunge us into recession. So who knows? The 'experts' might be right and it could be the worst thing we've done - or it could all be exaggerated and ultimately unravel as untrue scaremongering.

Then again, I'd rather Tony Blair had not allowed immigration numbers to be so high in the first place as then maybe 'Vote Remain' would have won, as you don't have to be Albert Einstein to work out that the mass flow of EU foreigners onto these shores made some folk vote to leave in the first place and gave the likes of Nigel Farage ammunition.

It's all a bloody great big mess!

Well said sir.

[Bentley Bullet]

Everyone knows that no one knows what the outcome will be, except for those who think they know.

[SydneyRover]

''Brexit: Junior minister resigns over May's 'grave error' in seeking deal with Corbyn – live news''

Not much CONsensus there then.