Coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm sorry to hear that Nudga. Truly.

But what is the alternative? Genuinely, what is it?

[rich1471]

Did Whitty just let it slip that restrictions to go on all year?

I work in hospitality and don't think I will back at work until April at the earliest

[auckleyflyer]

Gutted the schools are shut again 14y old daughter gone right down the pan, during this last year!! Can barely get her out of her room, refusing to do any school work, and on painkillers"backache"??! She's asking for anti depressants and started smoking weed!! I honestly don't know what to do or where to go for help. Getting up for school when it was on was just getting her back into something like herself again.
GCSE's in 2022 as well!

[rich1471]

Hope we never get as bad as this Ambulance workers in Los Angeles County, California, have been told not to transport hospital patients that have extremely low chances of survival.

[Axholme Lion]

Did Whitty just let it slip that restrictions to go on all year?

Of course they will in some form.

We need to vaccinate 50 million people with two doses to get the whole population covered. We might get 2 million doses a week if we do very well. Do the numbers.

Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, the restrictions can get easier but they won't be totally dropped until enough of the whole population has been done.

BST - do you really think the government will vaccinate 50m ?

I suppose you think HS 2 will go beyond Birmingham?

Two choices.

1) We do and we start to get back to normal from Summer onwards.

2) We don't and this f**ker grinds on.

I assume that everyone who refuses to be vaccinated will now belt up and stop complaining about being inconvenienced by lockdowns.

Why because you say so, so it must be right?
I disagree with much of what you say on many issues, but you come across as an educated person with firm views which I respect, we all can't think and be the same, however you are starting to come across as very arrogant.

[BillyStubbsTears]

AL.
I'll admit, I tend to be blunt when things are straightforward.

Regarding the post you were referring to, as far as I can see, we do only have those two alternatives.

You only get over an epidemic by achieving Herd Immunity. There are only two ways to do that. 1) Vaccinate 60-70% of the population. 2) Allow 60-70% of the population to catch the virus.

If we go the second route, with a pretty well-established Infection Fatality Rate of around 1%, you are looking at 3-400,000 COVID deaths. If you let them happen in one wave it will be an apocalypse like you cannot imagine. If you want to smooth it out, you need repeated lockdown/release/lockdown cycles for 2-3 years.

There isn't any other solution. We keep hearing people say "Just shield the vulnerable and let everyone else catch the virus." But that's nonsense. There are anything between 10-20million people in the country who are particularly vulnerable to COVID. How do you shield all them? People say requisition hotel rooms and lock them away in there. Which sounds great. Except there are only 800,000 hotel rooms in the entire country.

There genuinely isn't any alternative to ongoing lockdowns or mass vaccinations. People who oppose both are just indulging their right to be the Abominable No-Man. Saying "no" to everything.

[Axholme Lion]

AL.
I'll admit, I tend to be blunt when things are straightforward.

Regarding the post you were referring to, as far as I can see, we do only have those two alternatives.

You only get over an epidemic by achieving Herd Immunity. There are only two ways to do that. 1) Vaccinate 60-70% of the population. 2) Allow 60-70% of the population to catch the virus.

If we go the second route, with a pretty well-established Infection Fatality Rate of around 1%, you are looking at 3-400,000 COVID deaths. If you let them happen in one wave it will be an apocalypse like you cannot imagine. If you want to smooth it out, you need repeated lockdown/release/lockdown cycles for 2-3 years.

There isn't any other solution. We keep hearing people say "Just shield the vulnerable and let everyone else catch the virus." But that's nonsense. There are anything between 10-20million people in the country who are particularly vulnerable to COVID. How do you shield all them? People say requisition hotel rooms and lock them away in there. Which sounds great. Except there are only 800,000 hotel rooms in the entire country.

There genuinely isn't any alternative to ongoing lockdowns or mass vaccinations. People who oppose both are just indulging their right to be the Abominable No-Man. Saying "no" to everything.

The problem with two to three years is that there won't be much left to come back to when we're done with it. I don't think the government have the balls to accept that some people WILL die. I am not being cruel or heartless but it is a fact. We need an honest assessment of what the price to be paid for each course of action is and are we prepared to pay that price. The future of the young, of which I am not one of unfortunately, is being destroyed, it all seems to be the wrong way around to me.
What would the world be like after another three years of this? No shops, no pubs, no cafes , no cinema, no theatre and no football. It doesn't sound very inviting does it?

[MachoMadness]

[BillyStubbsTears]

AL

But there's no need for it to take two-three years. If enough people take a vaccine.

It's dead (sic) simple.

1) You take a vaccine
Or
2) You accept three years of lockdowns
Or
3) You accept more UK people dying over a 2 month period than died in the whole of WWII.

Your choice.

[River Don]

AL

I'm sure this government is quite prepared to accept mass casualties.

What they are concerned about is losing control of the rate of casualties. The position they have taken throughout is to open the economy as much as is possible without overburdening the NHS.

So long as there are beds and treatment available in the hospitals they will keep things open. What they can't allow politically is for people to be falling ill and dying in their beds at home because the hospitals are full.

[Axholme Lion]

But am I correct in saying that even if have taken the vaccine it still doesn't stop you spreading it? I'm sure I heard some boffin saying that the other day.

[River Don]

I don't think they know about that yet AL.

It is quite possible the vaccine will prevent or slow the spread, that is often the case. Sometimes it works differently. They won't know what's happening until they have much more data, which will take time.

[ravenrover]

The biggest point about the vaccine is that it has been proven to lessen the effects of Covid if you catch it therefore reducing pressure on NHS, no one in the trials who caught Covid needed hospital treatment

[Nudga]

Is it responsible for the higher cases?

[River Don]

Case numbers are getting very concerning now. The leader of Manchester City council has said the cities hospitals are in danger of falling over. Whatever that means I don't think it's good. They reckon a third of the cases they are seeing are new varient.

The vaccine won't be causing the growth in new varient Covid. It's designed for the original form.

[wilts rover]

But am I correct in saying that even if have taken the vaccine it still doesn't stop you spreading it? I'm sure I heard some boffin saying that the other day.

Yes that is correct (so far as we know). The vaccine protects you from the worst of the consequences of catching the vaccine.

It doesn't stop you from catching the virus - and if you have the virus you can spread it.

It (should) stop you from requiring hospital treatment - so (hopefully) the only people that would require hospitilisation in future are people who have not been vaccinated. So then covid becomes just like any other transmitable illness and the country can get back to normal.

Mum had a call to go to Owston Ferry Surgery for hers. You can walk there. Then find out they cancelled it as they did with her.

[Nudga]

Case numbers are getting very concerning now. The leader of Manchester City council has said the cities hospitals are in danger of falling over. Whatever that means I don't think it's good. They reckon a third of the cases they are seeing are new varient.

The vaccine won't be causing the growth in new varient Covid. It's designed for the original form.

Can the PCR test differentiate between the old varient, the new varient or the vaccine varient?

Or cold you might have had 3 months ago?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nudga.

Just let me check.

Are you suggesting that the 45% increase we had in deaths over and above the normal expected in late December is due to people being vaccinated or having a cold?

Christ almighty, the tenacity of these conspiracy theories. Utterly determined to ignore the big first order stuff.

There are thousands and thousands more people dying every week than normally do at this time of year. The vast majority of them have had a positive COVID test in the previous month.

Conclusion? It's all a conspiracy. The tests are wrong. Don't get vaccinated.

[River Don]

Case numbers are getting very concerning now. The leader of Manchester City council has said the cities hospitals are in danger of falling over. Whatever that means I don't think it's good. They reckon a third of the cases they are seeing are new varient.

The vaccine won't be causing the growth in new varient Covid. It's designed for the original form.

Can the PCR test differentiate between the old varient, the new varient or the vaccine varient?

Or cold you might have had 3 months ago?

Nudge

I don't know. I'm just going on a report that 30% of cases in Manchester are new variant and that percentage is growing. I just assume that means the hospitals have a test that tells them which version of the virus they are dealing with.

Wilts

I'm pretty sure I have read reports that state they don't know if the new vaccines prevent transmission yet and they won't know until they start seeing some real world data.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD.

The reports I've seen say they don't yet know for certain that the vaccine will reduce transmission, but that it would be unusual if it didn't.

[Ldr]

RD.

The reports I've seen say they don't yet know for certain that the vaccine will reduce transmission, but that it would be unusual if it didn't.

COVID patients in my trust have doubled in 4 days from 01/01 - 05/01

[River Don]

Yep that's it BST. Though I remember the bloke saying not all vaccines do prevent transmission, so the possibility that it won't prevent it can't be discounted.

They'll find out soon enough.

LDR

Hardly anyone has been vaccinated yet. We would not expect to see the vaccine having any discernible effect on the infection figures for a while yet.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr.

I wouldn't expect the vaccine to be having much effect on transmission yet.

1) Only about 2% of the population have had the jab.
2) It takes a couple of weeks to reach full effectiveness.
3) Most of those innoculated are very old and won't be the ones spreading the virus.

Very scary numbers you're seeing there though. Good luck!

[Ldr]

Ldr.

I wouldn't expect the vaccine to be having much effect on transmission yet.

1) Only about 2% of the population have had the jab.
2) It takes a couple of weeks to reach full effectiveness.
3) Most of those innoculated are very old and won't be the ones spreading the virus.

Very scary numbers you're seeing there though. Good luck!

Sorry guys, wasnt a direct comment on the vaccine. Its a scary reverse of trend coming a week after xmas...........

[scawsby steve]

62,322 new cases today, and 1,041 deaths.

F*cking hell, it's just rampaging now.

[albie]

Good summary of the position on QT;
https://twitter.com/i/status/1347192629205807104

[Filo]

Hancock vists Surgery to promote the vaccine rollout, only to discover the Surgery hadn’t received any yet. You couldn’t make it up, piss up brewery anyone

https://twitter.com/kevjmclaughlin/status/1347237081823719427?s=21

[selby]

52,618 new cases reported today
  1,162 deaths recorded
   According to a report 80% of deaths are in the over 82 age group

[BillyStubbsTears]

Some glimmers of hope in the data over the past couple or three days.

It's looking like the number of new cases are starting to top out. Best to look at the weekly averages rather than the daily figures which bounce up and down. On the weekly averages, there are signs that the rise in new cases may have finally stopped. Hopefully this is a sign of the Xmas surge working its way out of the system after 10-15 days, and hopefully the lockdown will add to that going forward.

Bad news is that the surge around Xmas means that it's pretty well baked in that the daily deaths are going to go up a lot over the rest of January. I'd expect the weekly average to top out at around 1200 deaths a day sometime in late Jan, and we'll probably see some days when 1500-2000 deaths are reported. Those figures are both way higher than the peak of the first wave.

The key then is how quickly the lockdown brings down new infections and how quickly the vaccinations start to slow the new deaths. But fingers crossed, the next 2-3 weeks should be as bad as it gets.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is one big concern which I'm amazed no-one in the media has discussed because it screams out of the data. There appear to be more people dying of COVID over the last few weeks than we'd have expected due to the positive test numbers.

Throughout the second wave, up to around the end of November, there was a constant feature. For every 50 people testing positive on a given day, 1 person died three weeks later. That held right through October and November. But since then, there are a lot more people dying compared to those testing positive. over the past 5-6 weeks, 1 person has been dying of COVID for every 30 or so who tested positive three weeks earlier. See the graph below.

The way the new cases and delayed new deaths tracked each other at 50:1 scales was quite remarkable until late Nov.

Look at the data on 1 Oct. 10,000 new positive tests a day. and three weeks later, there were 200 deaths a day. 1:50

Then in early Nov. 20-25,000 new positive tests a day. And three weeks later, 4-500 deaths a day. 1:50

But the way the death have increased since then is worrying. Three weeks ago, in Mid-Dec, we had about 20,000 new positive tests per day. Now, three weeks later, we are averaging about 700 new deaths a day. 1:30.

That could be an indication that as hospitals start to get overwhelmed, they are simply not able to provide the level of care they could when the outbreak was smaller. or it could mean that the new variant is more deadly. But whatever it is, it is unmistakable from the numbers and it might mean that we end up with significantly more deaths at the peak in 3-4 weeks time than I said in the previous post. Let's hope I'm interpreting this wrong, but it seems clear as day on that graph.