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There is one big concern which I'm amazed no-one in the media has discussed because it screams out of the data. There appear to be more people dying of COVID over the last few weeks than we'd have expected due to the positive test numbers.Throughout the second wave, up to around the end of November, there was a constant feature. For every 50 people testing positive on a given day, 1 person died three weeks later. That held right through October and November. But since then, there are a lot more people dying compared to those testing positive. over the past 5-6 weeks, 1 person has been dying of COVID for every 30 or so who tested positive three weeks earlier. See the graph below.The way the new cases and delayed new deaths tracked each other at 50:1 scales was quite remarkable until late Nov. Look at the data on 1 Oct. 10,000 new positive tests a day. and three weeks later, there were 200 deaths a day. 1:50Then in early Nov. 20-25,000 new positive tests a day. And three weeks later, 4-500 deaths a day. 1:50But the way the death have increased since then is worrying. Three weeks ago, in Mid-Dec, we had about 20,000 new positive tests per day. Now, three weeks later, we are averaging about 700 new deaths a day. 1:30.That could be an indication that as hospitals start to get overwhelmed, they are simply not able to provide the level of care they could when the outbreak was smaller. or it could mean that the new variant is more deadly. But whatever it is, it is unmistakable from the numbers and it might mean that we end up with significantly more deaths at the peak in 3-4 weeks time than I said in the previous post. Let's hope I'm interpreting this wrong, but it seems clear as day on that graph.
Hancock vists Surgery to promote the vaccine rollout, only to discover the Surgery hadn’t received any yet. You couldn’t make it up, piss up brewery anyonehttps://twitter.com/kevjmclaughlin/status/1347237081823719427?s=21
Quote from: Filo on January 07, 2021, 05:47:01 pmHancock vists Surgery to promote the vaccine rollout, only to discover the Surgery hadn’t received any yet. You couldn’t make it up, piss up brewery anyonehttps://twitter.com/kevjmclaughlin/status/1347237081823719427?s=21What was the reason for the none delivery.
RD.I agree. The key thing is that the infections came down markedly in the November lockdown, but deaths a few weeks later barely dropped. That's a big worry.
BSTIf anything we were expecting to see deaths going the other way, as care improved and new therapeutic drugs are identified. If deaths are going up that's a worry, I can't imagine the NHS is so overwhelmed yet, I'd bet the new varient is a little more dangerous.
Quote from: River Don on January 08, 2021, 09:58:17 amBSTIf anything we were expecting to see deaths going the other way, as care improved and new therapeutic drugs are identified. If deaths are going up that's a worry, I can't imagine the NHS is so overwhelmed yet, I'd bet the new varient is a little more dangerous.I heard a doctor saying earlier this week that most hospitals are running at 90% bed capacity right now, which is apparently the usual level for this time of year.Maybe ldr could indicate how true that is.
Visitors to the UK now have to have proof of a negative COVID test within the last 72 hours before being allowed into the country.This includes UK nationals.
Quote from: drfchound on January 08, 2021, 01:07:09 pmVisitors to the UK now have to have proof of a negative COVID test within the last 72 hours before being allowed into the country.This includes UK nationals.The thing is this is 9 month to late , should of happened from last April
I'm sure i read somewhere that in the first lock down in April 15,000 people a day where entering or leaving the UK no wounder it spread
BFYP.Look at the graph.Why wasn't that happening in October and early November, but suddenly started happening around late Nov?Something very significant seems to have changed in late Nov. That ties in exactly with the start of the spread of the new variant.
The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.
Just been shopping at morrisons and some bloke was screaming at some poor woman saying I'm not wearing a mask Its not law I don't care