Brexit deal

[MachoMadness]

In all fairness I don't know who he is and I can't remember his name. If Dominic Raab was a non-entity, this bloke is pure anti-matter. When you try to Google him it just says "404 file not found".

[RedJ]

I remember when I got 'promoted' to senior accounts administrator.

No change in salary and barely any change in duties, just got some of my work took off me and given to a young lass that I then had to 'supervise'.

He's basically me but on a small fortune.



I mean at least Raab looked like a shit Bond villain. What's this fella got going for him?

[BillyStubbsTears]

One step closer to the endgame tonight.

The vote tonight is symbolic, but it does effectively show that there is a majority in the House to stop even funding for preparation for No Deal.

Some folk are saying that when May loses next week, she'll go all in on No Deal anyway. Which she could in principle, because if her deal gets voted down, the only way ND can be avoided is for the Govt to bring primary legislation to change the A50 process.

Personally I don't believe that even someone as pig headed as May would dig her heels in and go for ND. Because she knows that leading us into a catastrophe like that with no preparation would be the final nail in her historical legacy.

But tonight probably shows that she couldn't do that anyway. 20 Tories are so against ND that they were prepared to vote against May tonight. That says a lot. If May loses the vote on her deal next week, and then tried to go for ND, I reckon those 20 would do anything to stop her. Including voting with Labour on a NC vote to bring her down.

And she will know that. So she won't go for ND because that is the end of her career.

So, when her deal is voted down next week, what the f**k happens then?

[Filo]

I think that she is that pig headed she will go for a no deal, her reputation is in tatters anyway

[Glyn_Wigley]

Going on what she's done before, I think when she loses the vote she'll just stall and do nothing. One final kick of the can down the road as time ticks away.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

Aye. But if she does, that's the end of her career. Tonight's vote has shown that there are enough Tory MPs prepared to defy the Govt over ND. So her going for ND will result in the Govt falling.  And her career ending.

That's inescapable.

And I've never yet seen a politician prepared to put themselves in a position where they know beforehand that they are going to finish their career.

So, unless she has genuinely lost touch with reality, she won't go for ND.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

That's the worry.

That would tie in with the two recent rumours

1) We are negotiating to extend the Leave date. To give time for...

2) May bringing tiny variants of her deal back to Parliament over and over and over again until she gets it through.

Remember that she can't be unseated by her own MPs bringing her down now, for another year. And she can't be unseated by Parliament voting against her in a NC vote unless she does something to make a couple of dozen Tory MPs vote with Lab in a NC vote.

 So the perma-f**k-up approach might well end up being the most likely one.

But f**king hell. How excruciatingly humiliating would that be for her?

[albie]

BST,

May cannot do (2) because of parliamentary rules;
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit

Scroll down......If she tries it on there would be a constitutional fracas.

Because she cannot be unseated as Tory leader for a year, Mp's have to remove her by promoting her resignation, or voting to support a GE.

A simple majority against in a vote of no confidence brings a GE.

They won't lean to the latter as first base, so the question becomes how do they make her position untenable?

[Donnywolf]

I think that she is that pig headed she will go for a no deal, her reputation is in tatters anyway

She will say "we must deliver on the will of the British people a lot" as well !

Wonder how many times she has said that in the last 2 years

More than "we will deliver a strong and stable Government" although that was sickeningly often

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie
A constitutional fracas?

From whom?

One thing and one thing only matters in our system. Parliamentary arithmetic. A Govt can do whatever Parliament doesn't prevent it from doing.

It may be that 20 Tory MPs are so devoted to upholding constitutional niceties that they bring the Govt down if May does try to keep bringing her deal back. But there's nothing to stop her doing so outside that event.

[GazLaz]

Like you’ve said all along BST, yesterday’s  outcome shows how much MPs are  against a no deal option.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz
Been clear all along. If the vote last night had actually been a straight yes/no to No Deal, the majority would have been far higher.

There's not going to be No Deal. At least not without some spectacular loss of nerve by a lot of Tory MPs.

[albie]

BST,

From whom?.....The law, Billy!

The UK is still bound by EU law, and is also constrained by precedent in the interpretation of UK statute.
Procedural rules are precisely to prevent creative interpretation by rogue governments.

When you say:
"One thing and one thing only matters in our system. Parliamentary arithmetic. A Govt can do whatever Parliament doesn't prevent it from doing",
I doubt you will find a constitutional expert to agree with this.

But I am constantly surprised by events...May is certainly a complete chancer.....lets see, eh!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

I'm struggling to see anything in that link you posted that explicitly, legally prevents May from doing precisely what I said in point 2 last night.

Opinions and hypotheses, but nothing definitive.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, well, well. Tory MPs ratcheting things up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46805269

THAT makes step 2 now very unlikley.

[RedJ]

But what can she do realistically, the EU have said they won't renegotiate.

[wilts rover]

Albie

I'm struggling to see anything in that link you posted that explicitly, legally prevents May from doing precisely what I said in point 2 last night.

Opinions and hypotheses, but nothing definitive.

Under the heading: If Parliament rejects the deal first time it has been suggested the Government could bring it back again, the IFG advice Albie posted in his link says:

Ultimately, whether the second motion is the same in substance to the first, and so whether it could be brought forward again during the same session, is for the Speaker of the HoC to decide. In making this decision, the Speaker is likely to consider the mood of the House.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit

In the light of today's shenanigans would you now like to reconsider your earlier reply Billy?

[Glyn_Wigley]

But what can she do realistically, the EU have said they won't renegotiate.

She'll try and do what politicians always do - change a few words and give something a different name and hope no-one notices it's exactly the same.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

I don't follow. It says the Speaker would likely consider the mood of the House. So it's all about the opinions of MPs. As I said.

Today is important of course, because it indicates that the mood of enough Tory MPs is hardening. That's the point.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sweet God up above, this is getting ridiculous.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1083031865735430146

So May now wants Parliament to vote on an amendment to her deal that drives a coach and horses through the deal that she spent months agreeing with the EU.

If this passes, Parliament will have signed up to a deal which is not a deal that is acceptable to the EU.

Then presumably she goes back to the EU and says "this is the only deal that I can get passed in Parliament. You'll have to trust me that we will make sure Ireland doesn't get f**ked over in 12 months." And the EU says, "Trust you? Trust YOU who has just reneged on the deal that we agreed with you?"

And we now have 11 weeks and 2 days till we leave.

What an utter f**king shambles.

[Glyn_Wigley]

They're not even hiding their contempt for Parliamentary scrutiny now...

https://mobile.twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1082996064179970053

[wilts rover]

Other views are that government amendment is meaningless
https://twitter.com/Peston

[wilts rover]

My reading of today is that the speaker will do as much as possible, including breaking parliamentary procedure and precedent, to oppose Brexit. Thus if/when May brings her deal back with only minor changes he will refuse to raise it in the house. And then they will.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Righto.

So it shows her mendacity to the world while not helping her at all in practice.

That's grand...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

Or, to allow Parliament to express its will. Different interpretations...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Interesting side effect of Brexit.

I'm sat in a departure lounge at Manchester airport tonight. Big TV screen showing the news. Must have been 100 people crowding round the screen watching the Brexit news. Then when it switched to other news, they drifted away.

Far more people than I can ever remember are connecting with politics.

[Donnywolf]

They were Kids once who used to watch Punch and Judy with Wife beating  and Crocodiles and such stuff

They have never been able to watch such similar "entertainment" from then till now !

As our PM  keeps proving "thats not the way to do it"

[SydneyRover]

Of course I've always had faith in Bercow to do the right thing by the people of Britain, he's always displayed fairness, integrity and knowledge of parliamentary rules as he carries out his duties as Speaker.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/100979/commons-speaker-john-bercow-forced-deny-anti-brexit-bias

hehe

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I don't think Bercow is quite as bad as is made out but clearly he does follow an agenda that suits him.  I don't know if that's right of him to do but it's certainly another messy dimension.

The next few weeks are uncertain. Who knows what will happen, there's a lot of unanswered questions.

[Filo]

I think the Tory’s think he should be their puppet