Brexit Negotiations

[wilts rover]

f**k me.

Look what he's being referred for.

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1057969796552314880

No evidence that the money he put into the Leave campaign was his. Allegations of criminal behaviour.

This has massive implications for the Brexit situation. 

.

Strange. I'd have expected Corbyn to be all over this story. Given that he was in favour of us Remaining, and campaigned so vigorously for us to Remain, I'd have expected him to.be incandescent to learn that a prominent Leave funder is facing a criminal investigation over that funding.

But not a dickie bird from him. How odd.

Not completely Sure if your being sarcastic there . Are you ?

Well at a guess I would say that Billy wondering why Corbyn, who isn't in power and can pronounce for all he is worth on any subject he wants without it having any effect whatsoever, when there is a story in (some) newspapers that the actual prime minister who has actual power and whose actual pronouncements do matter, apparently blocked the security services from investigating Mr Banks when they thought he was a threat to national security, says a lot more about Mr Stubbs political allegencies and dislike of certain labour politicians than it does about his concern over Aaron Banks. But thats just my guess.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That would be a very perceptive analysis Wilts.

Except...

Oh aye. Opposition parties do, and this one does, pronounce on everything from the economy to policy on Palestine to university fees, to the NHS, to ownership of buses. So I'll say again.  It's odd that Corbyn isn't looking to put political pressure on the Govt on THE central issue of the present and the near future.

Regarding May, well yes, she has some very serious questions to answer on Banks. Which makes it even odder that Labour isn't raising this issue.

[Not Now Kato]

Billy, the people have spoken! BREXIT  means BREXIT! Nobody wants to rock that vote.
 
Whover takes us out of the EU is going to look pretty damn stupid and will go down in history in a very bad way.
 
Corbyn doesn't want that mantle, (just as Gove, Mogg and Johnson don't), so he, (just like them), would rather the country go to the dogs than to upset the 'people'. Sad, very sad, when position becomes more important than people.
 
Just my opinion mind.

[Donnywolf]

There is a lot of merit in what you say.

Just as Camerons legacy (if we actually leave) will be the fool that took us out or allowed the Vote that took us out so will be the PM who presides over it being "thwarted" (if we actually stay)

That is why I am thinking that "they" (probably May for one and Corbyn) are playing a waiting game hoping that the People in the guise of a Second Vote will be the ones that "thwart" the original Vote in which "the people" voted to Leave

"They" can then throw up their arms (mostly in mock horror) and blame the People for denying the People - perfect scenario for escaping the impossible situation for them. Again that is just what I think they might be thinking and in some cases HOPING- and of course it could be a crock of s**t

[SydneyRover]

I couldn't Sydney no but I'm sure someone could, but a petition means nothing really does it and all the marches they have had mean nothing either, nothing has changed unless I'm missing something

As I said: ''the tide has turned''

Majority in all Labour seats back second referendum, study says

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/majority-in-all-labour-seats-back-second-referendum-study-says

[Glyn_Wigley]

I couldn't Sydney no but I'm sure someone could, but a petition means nothing really does it and all the marches they have had mean nothing either, nothing has changed unless I'm missing something

As I said: ''the tide has turned''

Majority in all Labour seats back second referendum, study says

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/majority-in-all-labour-seats-back-second-referendum-study-says

That's nothing...have you heard Arron Banks latest position..?

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1059039362644631557

Unf**kingbelievable what some people will say when their collar's being felt!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Unless this man has some very powerful protectors, he's going down.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46089236

He had a chance in this interview to give clear evidence on what was the source of the money that he poured into the Leave campaign. He dissembled, bullshitted and then flipped into claiming it was a Remain plot.

If that's the best he can do, he's in very, very serious trouble.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And to be honest, the interview with Marr didn't even scratch the surface of some of the things that he's been accused of.

How a company that made a £250k loss in 2016 could have paid £9m to bankroll the Leave campaign.

What are the extent of his links with Russian diplomats and businessmen that only started when he became a prominent Leave supporter.

Why he has consistently lied about these links, firstly denying they existed, then admitting to only one or two meetings before finally admitting that he'd met the Russian Ambassador more than a dozen times.

Whether and why he was offered lucrative shares in gold and diamond mines owned by Russian companies.

Whether he illegally used the phone centre staff from his insurance company to work on the Leave campaign without declaring this.

Does any Leave supporter look at this and have the slightest worry that they've been played?

[wilts rover]

What are the extent of his links with Russian diplomats and businessmen that only started when he became a prominent Leave supporter.

Here's a mad conspiracy theory for you. Turn that sentence around, did his links with Russian 'businessmen' suddenly lead to him becoming a prominent Leave backer & funder? Was it all just a plot to launder Russian money in British politics that backfired when they actually won against all expectations and now face a lot more scrutiny than they would have done if they had lost?

Or put another way, how did someone who was on the verge of bankrupcy in 2013 suddenly become worth £100 million in 2015? That's a lot of Go Skippy policies.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/adam-ramsay/how-did-arron-banks-afford-brexit

[BillyStubbsTears]

Possibly Wilts.

Still not a word from Corbyn on the matter. Although he has found time to Tweet about a picture that a bairn drew of him. So that's nice.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1058856943090049024

[i_ateallthepies]

Does any Leave supporter look at this and have the slightest worry that they've been played?

A few may do BST.  I suspect a great many of them will see him as some sort of folk hero who helped deliver the result they wanted and don't give a flying f**k that it was achieved by criminal means.

[Not Now Kato]

The plot thickens....
 
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/james-cusick-adam-ramsay-crina-boros/revealed-tory-mps-using-taxpayers-cash-to-fund-sec
 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well.

Here's one strident Brexit supporter who is having pause for thought.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6348317/amp/PETER-OBORNE-voted-Brexit-claims-Russian-influence-deeply-troubling.html?__twitter_impression=true

And YES, I KNOW it's The Mail.

And YES, I KNOW that I've said I wouldn't wipe my arse on anything that paper said.

This is an Opinion  piece from someone on the Right that I very much respect as a thinker. Not a story by some hack journalist making up facts to fit what the Editor wants.

[The Red Baron]

The Mail seems to have changed quite a bit since Dacre stepped down as Editor. Although Oborne is an independent thinker and is usually one of the better reads among columnists.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

It does actually. It shows what a malign influence Dacre was. A hateful man who has done much to poison public debate in this country.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

It does actually. It shows what a malign influence Dacre was. A hateful man who has done much to poison public debate in this country.

The chap who is now editor used to edit the Mail's sister Sunday paper and that came out for Remain in the Referendum. I wonder if there is some hedging of bets going on from the Mail's owners?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aye well, they'd be in good company.

Kelvin McKenzie regrets stirring up Europhobia whilst at the Sun.

Arron Banks says it would have been better if we'd voted Remain.

Boris Johnson has kept his options open by saying that we'd be better off having no Brexit than a half and half.

Edit.

Did I say "good" company? I meant "utterly repulsive" company.

[albie]

The issue with the allegations against Banks is whether if proven, it means the referendum was unlawful.
Some interesting thoughts here;
https://theconversation.com/arron-banks-criminal-investigation-could-evidence-against-him-make-brexit-void-106281

So if Banks is bang to rights, it is not just a question of him getting his come-uppence for the swerve, but if the law will allow the Brexit show to stay on the road?

What then, Theresa?

[BillyStubbsTears]

That odious Kitson Banks. THIS is the sort of shite that he facilitated, when acting as a conduit to pour Kremlin money into the Brexit campaign.

http://brexitballs.com/fakes-debunked/arron-banks-leave-eu-fake-exposed-does-anyone-care/

But of course, that didn't influence anyone.

And both sides lied.

[wilts rover]

Bad news for anyone in Doncaster who is sick of Brexit and wishes it was all over, it seems you are going to hear a lot more about it

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-ready-to-back-brexit-deal-face-hope-not-hate-led-ground-campaign_uk_5bd06f90e4b0a8f17ef2b78b

[The Red Baron]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46109889

Looks like the Government might have something to try and sell ...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Except we're still no nearer having a solution to the Irish border.

The EU won't accept a temporary deal with the entire UK staying in the CU.

The Tory party won't accept a permanent deal.

So, it looks like we're in line for three weeks of piss and wind flannel to convince us that the Great Leader has led us to a historic turning point. When in fact, the core problem still hasn't been solved. Because it's not soluble.

[The Red Baron]

BST

I suspect Barnier has proposed something in private which the Cabinet has gone over today. The Attorney-General was in Cabinet which suggests he is going over the wording.

The key will be Round 2 of the Cabinet later this week, and whether any of the remaining Brexiteers break ranks. If they do, there will be nothing to sell.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

If there is a dealing the offing, it can only be a clever use of language. The two positions are mutually incompatible. But I suppose you should never underestimate politicians' ability to make the same set of words mean two different things.

Any deal will revolve around the EU being able to convince Ireland that the backstop in permanent, while May sells it to the UK as temporary.

Question then is going to be whether any of the Tory Brexit-sceptics have the courage of their convictions, and vote down that deal.

[The Red Baron]

That's the kind of sleight-of-hand I think is being proposed. They know that a group of Tory backbenchers will vote against it. The PR offensive will be aimed at the DUP, the Lib Dems and Labour backbenchers who are desperate to avoid No Deal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But that's a useless negotiating strategy. Because no one believes that the Govt would go for No Deal.

If Parliament votes down the sham that's coming, the alternative isn't No Deal. The alternative is the end of May and probably a General Election.

[The Red Baron]

But that's a useless negotiating strategy. Because no one believes that the Govt would go for No Deal.

If Parliament votes down the sham that's coming, the alternative isn't No Deal. The alternative is the end of May and probably a General Election.

I think they will emphasise the lack of time and the risk of No Deal by default. There was a school of thought that WW1 started because no-one could agree on an alternative. Ditto a No Deal Brexit.

[Sprotyrover]

But that's a useless negotiating strategy. Because no one believes that the Govt would go for No Deal.

If Parliament votes down the sham that's coming, the alternative isn't No Deal. The alternative is the end of May and probably a General Election.

I think they will emphasise the lack of time and the risk of No Deal by default. There was a school of thought that WW1 started because no-one could agree on an alternative. Ditto a No Deal Brexit.

Not quite RB
At six o’clock in the evening on July 23, 1914, nearly one month after the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife by a young Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Baron Giesl von Gieslingen, ambassador of the Austro-Hungarian Empire to Serbia, delivers an ultimatum to the Serbian foreign ministry.

Acting with the full support of its allies in Berlin, Austria-Hungary had determined in the aftermath of Franz Ferdinand’s assassination to pursue a hard-line policy towards Serbia. Their plan, developed in coordination with the German foreign office, was to force a military conflict that would, Vienna hoped, end quickly and decisively with a crushing Austrian victory before the rest of Europe—namely, Serbia’s powerful ally, Russia—had time to react. As the German ambassador to Vienna reported to his government on July 14, the [note] to Serbia is being composed so that the possibility of its being accepted is practically excluded.

According to the terms of the ultimatum delivered on July 23, the Serbian government would have to accept an Austro-Hungarian inquiry into the assassination, notwithstanding its claim that it was already conducting its own internal investigation. Serbia was also to suppress all anti-Austrian propaganda and to take steps to root out and eliminate terrorist organizations within its borders—one such organization, the Black Hand, was believed to have aided and abetted the archduke’s killer, Gavrilo Princip, and his cohorts, providing weapons and safe passage from Belgrade to Sarajevo. The Dual Monarchy demanded an answer to the note within 48 hours—by that time, however, anticipating Serbian defiance, Gieslingen had already packed his bags and prepared to leave the embassy.


While the world waited for Serbia’s response, Germany worked diplomatically to contain the effects of the ultimatum, but none of the other great powers, with reason, were inclined to see Austria-Hungary, with its relatively weak military, as acting alone. By 1914, the battle lines had been drawn in Europe: if Germany stood with Austria-Hungary against Serbia (and by extension, Russia) then Russia’s allies, France and Britain, would be likely to step into the fray as well.

The British cabinet, just after receiving the news of the Austrian note to Serbia, held a meeting in London, one that had previously been devoted to discussing Ireland’s desire for independence. This note, as Winston Churchill famously wrote, was clearly an ultimatum, but it was an ultimatum such as had never been penned in modern times. As the reading proceeded it seemed absolutely impossible that any State in the world could accept it, or that any acceptance, however abject, would satisfy the aggressor. The parishes of Fermanagh and Tyrone faded back into the mists and squalls of Ireland, and a strange light beganto fall upon the map of Europe.

On receipt of the ultimatum, Serbia at once appealed to Russia, whose council of ministers met on July 24 to determine a course of action. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Sazonov voiced his belief that Germany was using the crisis over the archduke’s death as a pretext for starting a preventive war to defend its interests in the region. Defying Austro-German expectations that Russia would back down in the case of such a conflict, the council agreed to order four military districts to prepare for mobilization.


Meanwhile, in Belgrade on the afternoon of July 25, convinced that Austria-Hungary was preparing for a fight, Serbian Prime Minister Nicola Pasic ordered the Serbian army to mobilize. Pasic himself delivered the Serbian answer to the ultimatum to Gieslingen at the Austrian embassy, just before the 6 p.m. deadline. Serbia’s response effectively accepted all terms of the ultimatum but one: it would not accept Austria-Hungary’s participation in any internal inquiry, stating that this would be a violation of the Constitution and of the law of criminal procedure. This response did much to appeal Pasic and his country to international observers of the conflict; to Vienna, however, it made little difference. Gieslingen, bags packed and car waiting to drive him to the railroad station, broke the Dual Monarchy’s diplomatic relations with Serbia and left to catch his train. Three days later, on July 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, beginning the First World War.

Citation Information

Article Title
Austria-Hungary issues ultimatum to Serbia
Author
History.com Editors
Website Name
HISTORY
URL
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/austria-hungary-issues-ultimatum-to-serbia
Access Date
November 6, 2018
Publisher
A&E Television Networks
Last Updated
August 21, 2018
Original Published Date
October 28, 2009

[wilts rover]

But that's a useless negotiating strategy. Because no one believes that the Govt would go for No Deal.

If Parliament votes down the sham that's coming, the alternative isn't No Deal. The alternative is the end of May and probably a General Election.

I think they will emphasise the lack of time and the risk of No Deal by default. There was a school of thought that WW1 started because no-one could agree on an alternative. Ditto a No Deal Brexit.

There's a huge difference though between those 2 analogies TRB, if in 1914 people had known what WWI was going to involve would they have started/participated in it? Well we know what No Deal will involve.

A big factor in the Brexit vote is going to be this amendable motion. If Parliament doesn't like it, can they suggest something else - or will it be a take it or leave it?

Still I suggest stocking up on corned beef just in case...

[BillyStubbsTears]

But that's a useless negotiating strategy. Because no one believes that the Govt would go for No Deal.

If Parliament votes down the sham that's coming, the alternative isn't No Deal. The alternative is the end of May and probably a General Election.

I think they will emphasise the lack of time and the risk of No Deal by default. There was a school of thought that WW1 started because no-one could agree on an alternative. Ditto a No Deal Brexit.

That analogy doesn't work.

There is a clear majority in Parliament against a No Deal Brexit.

There is absolutely no reason why we should stumble into a No Deal outcome.

If it looked as though the Govt was taking us down that route (which itself would be beyond idiotic, since it would secure the historical position if Teresa May as THE most catastrophic PM ever) then there would be a vote of No Confidence in the Govt, which would pass easily.

May has been trying to pass of No Deal as an outcine that should be taken seriously, in an attempt to bolster her negotiating position. But it's stupid and it's inconceivable. It's the equivalent of saying "Give me what I demand or I'll...or I'll...or I'll blow my head off.