Brexit Dividend

[SydneyRover]

Did you read the article Steve? it confirms what remainers have said all along, no one from the exit side has yet said or said and proven any benefit yet, Branton atm is arguing that the cost is small but only last week pud said anyone the thinks brexit will add to inflation is an idiot, is all a bit magic mushrooms brexit benefits aye Steve.

Nothing whatsoever to do with what I said about Heseltine.

Heseltine is correct, when johnson goes so does the dream, you saying no one in the tory party listens to him is not correct is it Steve, you just made it up.

[Branton Red]

Oh, and the question I was asking is where the money to pay those millions is going to come from? I presume it's going to be passed onto their customers because the costing sheets will now have extra expenditure on them.

  Glynn you don't understand context. £10m is miniscule for JD. It's revenue was £6.6bn last year. Even if  £10m extra cost is passed onto customers their prices will only rise 0.16%.

Inflation currently is 5.5%.

[SydneyRover]

''Jacob Rees-Mogg says little evidence Brexit hit trade''

So who would you believe the mogg or the ONS

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60407234

[scawsby steve]

Did you read the article Steve? it confirms what remainers have said all along, no one from the exit side has yet said or said and proven any benefit yet, Branton atm is arguing that the cost is small but only last week pud said anyone the thinks brexit will add to inflation is an idiot, is all a bit magic mushrooms brexit benefits aye Steve.

Nothing whatsoever to do with what I said about Heseltine.

Heseltine is correct, when johnson goes so does the dream, you saying no one in the tory party listens to him is not correct is it Steve, you just made it up.

Just made it up? Since when did MPs in the HOC listen to any of the old has-beens in the HOL? Especially those who are bitter with an axe to grind.

Heseltine is yesterday's man; and that yesterday goes right back to Thatcher's years.

[SydneyRover]

Did you read the article Steve? it confirms what remainers have said all along, no one from the exit side has yet said or said and proven any benefit yet, Branton atm is arguing that the cost is small but only last week pud said anyone the thinks brexit will add to inflation is an idiot, is all a bit magic mushrooms brexit benefits aye Steve.

Nothing whatsoever to do with what I said about Heseltine.

Heseltine is correct, when johnson goes so does the dream, you saying no one in the tory party listens to him is not correct is it Steve, you just made it up.

Just made it up? Since when did MPs in the HOC listen to any of the old has-beens in the HOL? Especially those who are bitter with an axe to grind.

Heseltine is yesterday's man; and that yesterday goes right back to Thatcher's years.

just post the proof Steve is all

[SydneyRover]

Truth or lack of it is the very essence of brexit, if the truth was spoken at the time it would never have happened.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sorry Branton, my mistake. You're right. The mass of professional macroeconomic opinion whic reckons Brexit will have a 4-8% hit on GDP is wrong.

For the record, when I posted that link, I was really referring to the "nobody thought it through" comment.

[SydneyRover]

Maybe it's now time for the economic rationalists to step forward and say why this addition to inflation is a good thing? It is after all a brexit dividend, no? admittedly it may have been good during Austerity along with a few pay rises for the bolshies, but now? Let's try and put it into to terms that everyday people understand, foodbanks! to those that live day-to-day, those that spend all their money every week, how many more foodbanks can we expect, will they need more stock, will they need more volunteers? And pay rises, now? of course now is not a good time not because we have Austerity and the debt has to be paid off, it's because we have inflation and pay rises are bad, we'll just have to wait for the brexit dividends to kick in and everyone will be  highly paid techie ................... next?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Oh, and the question I was asking is where the money to pay those millions is going to come from? I presume it's going to be passed onto their customers because the costing sheets will now have extra expenditure on them.

  Glynn you don't understand context. £10m is miniscule for JD. It's revenue was £6.6bn last year. Even if  £10m extra cost is passed onto customers their prices will only rise 0.16%.

Inflation currently is 5.5%.

Don't be so stupid. You don't understand the context of how retailers work. If an item costs more to import then the full cost will be entered to the costing sheet and included in the selling-on price of that item, it doesn't get amortised across the whole of the company's goods for sale otherwise the company will have no idea of how their goods are individually selling against the costs of purchasing them. There would only be an 0.16% increase in prices if the whole of their costs relates to movements to/from the EU. Which they don't. Their costs includes the cost of land, labour, capital and capital investment.

[SydneyRover]

Something missing here, brexit was supposed to be about stopping the migration of people from EU countries, tick, that's been a roaring success so tick tick .......... boom.

Secondly brexit was to allow the UK to trade with the world, not that the EU was stopping that but anyway if world trade was the goal why do we need a Mogg brexit opportunities detector? Has johnson been on the forum, or on the spumante?

Why does Mogg have to waste time with petty amounts of red tape surrounding trade with the EU which surely will be reduced to a secondary trading partner any minute, when cheaper better quality goods will be flooding in from the rest of the world? it doesn't make sense. Wouldn't his time be better spent rolling out the red carpet for the new major partners?

''Jacob Rees-Mogg: New Brexit minister promises to cut red tape

The minister for Brexit opportunities has urged firms struggling with red tape to write to him, while on a visit to the UK's biggest container port.

Jacob Rees-Mogg said Brexit was "already a success" and that he would be working to "cut through the thicket" of red tape''

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-suffolk-60406922

thicket alright

[BigH]

  Stop calling your disciples up.

This from your own people

''Why the panic among Boris Johnson’s allies? Because they know Brexit is unravelling''
Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/16/panic-boris-johnson-allies-brexit-unravelling-michael-heseltine

Selby's own people? Heseltine was the biggest Europhile in the HOC for donkey's years.

Nobody in the Tory Party listens to him.

True, because the modern day Tory Party bears no relation to the Tory Government that he was part of.

Lord Patten - former Tory Part Chair - now calls it the 'English Nationalist Party':

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19900384.chris-patten-blistering-attack-boris-johnsons-tory-party/

With nutters like Bone, Cash and Baker now mainstream 'Tories', the lunatics have well and truly taken over the asylum.

[mugnapper]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-economy-brexit_uk_5b54e3b5e4b0de86f48e3566

So the man who said it will take 50 years to see the benefits of Brexit is put in charge of exploiting the benefits of Brexit after 5 years?

I’m sure he’s scratching his head at the Breakfast table whilst Nanny butters his crumpets.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Why is there so much debate about comments JD sports made over 12 months ago?

Their financial results don't really back up the claim all that much - record profits and by some margin.  It's such a struggle for them eh and they kept their furlough money didn't they?  Not all retailers did that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ha! I didn't see that date BFYP. It came up as a link in another story I was looking at and I assumed it was current.

That'll teach me to check next time.

As for JD, I have no axe to grind for them and yes, their keeping of furlough money while making profits is disgusting.

But the bigger point stands. Thousands and thousands of companies ARE finding it harder to export and import. I know this from personal experience. And those problems aren't going away. 

[selby]

    The EU courts found against Poland and Hungary rule of law yesterday;
     Let the fun begin.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Ha! I didn't see that date BFYP. It came up as a link in another story I was looking at and I assumed it was current.

That'll teach me to check next time.

As for JD, I have no axe to grind for them and yes, their keeping of furlough money while making profits is disgusting.

But the bigger point stands. Thousands and thousands of companies ARE finding it harder to export and import. I know this from personal experience. And those problems aren't going away. 

That's the problem with the internet things get brought up a long time ago. Odd his worries didn't come to past or have much effect though.

Its a convenient excuse in some cases (talking to an auditor yesterday they said use brexit or covid everyone else does).

It's mixed in reality and very hard to prove the direct effects.  Linking it in with other things that are happening tells much more of a story.  In my last job the paperwork was tricky as the business not used to it. But in another business it was bau and that impact on smaller Vs larger businesses shouldn't be understated.  Perhaps helping smaller businesses is the way to go.

I think I've said that before as someone who does that for a job the cause and effect isn't always quite as it appears.

[Branton Red]

Sorry Branton, my mistake. You're right. The mass of professional macroeconomic opinion whic reckons Brexit will have a 4-8% hit on GDP is wrong.

For the record, when I posted that link, I was really referring to the "nobody thought it through" comment.

An understandable if flawed argument.

Study after study shows economic experts are not only not particularly good at making economic predictions they are in fact no better, and no worse, at this than well-informed amateurs. Also IQ levels make little to no difference in making accurate forecasts.

The best economic forecasters are those that:

- Are receptive to new evidence
- Are actively open-minded thinkers
- Are comfortable in abandoning an old views
- Embrace arguments with others as an opportunity to learn

I wonder how many of your macroecomic experts would meet the above criteria on this subject matter?

I, or you, therefore have just as much chance of making a correct forecast on the economic impact of Brexit as any macroecomic expert.

Therefore it is perfectly reasonable to ask: logically why will the new but relatively low costs being met at the border by those companies trading with the EU lead to the UK economy being as much as 4-8% smaller than it would have been some point in the future? As a proponent of these views can you answer this question?

I pay more attention to experts but don't simply believe everything they say unquestionably. I'd want corroborating evidence on a historical supposition, or a logical explanation behind a forecast.

[Branton Red]

Don't be so stupid. You don't understand the context of how retailers work. If an item costs more to import then the full cost will be entered to the costing sheet and included in the selling-on price of that item, it doesn't get amortised across the whole of the company's goods for sale otherwise the company will have no idea of how their goods are individually selling against the costs of purchasing them. There would only be an 0.16% increase in prices if the whole of their costs relates to movements to/from the EU. Which they don't. Their costs includes the cost of land, labour, capital and capital investment.

Glynn whether a cost increase can be passed on to a particular product depends on the market for that product. If the cost of one type of JD trainers goes up but they know if they increase the price their sales will collapse because a rival is selling a similar product for less they won't do it. The MD may then decide to recoup the costs by increasing the price on another product - or several products where the market allows.

Let's not split hairs though I'll reword by previous post

£10m is miniscule for JD. It's revenue was £6.6bn last year. Even if £10m extra cost is passed onto customers their prices will only rise on average by 0.16%.

Inflation currently is 5.5%.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

You are as one with Rees-Mogg in insisting that Brexit's problems are overblown.

You are as one with Gove in proposing to ignore expert opinion when it tells you stuff you do not like.

Your comments ""economic experts are not particularly good" and "I, or you, therefore have just as much chance of making a correct forecast on the economic impact of Brexit as any macroecomic expert" are as ignorant as they are risible. Both could have come straight out of Gove's mouth.

The economics of trade is an extremely well-founded subject with an extremely strong foundation of logical theoretical models which have been generally validated by real world findings. Pretty much every trade economist says that the effect of putting up the sort of barriers to free trade that we are doing with the EU will result in a reduction of GDP of 4-8% compared to the baseline case of if we hadn't left the EU.


Dismissing that out of hand because you don't want to hear it is frankly pathetic. Have a sensible argument why they are wrong, or accept that they are likely to be right.

[Branton Red]

Maybe it's now time for the economic rationalists to step forward and say why this addition to inflation is a good thing? It is after all a brexit dividend, no?

Sydney you won't be told will you? See my response 31 to this thread. It still holds. There is no evidence Brexit is significantly contributing to inflation.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

You are as one with Rees-Mogg in insisting that Brexit's problems are overblown.

You are as one with Gove in proposing to ignore expert opinion when it tells you stuff you do not like.

Your comments ""economic experts are not particularly good" and "I, or you, therefore have just as much chance of making a correct forecast on the economic impact of Brexit as any macroecomic expert" are as ignorant as they are risible. Both could have come straight out of Gove's mouth.

The economics of trade is an extremely well-founded subject with an extremely strong foundation of logical theoretical models which have been generally validated by real world findings. Pretty much every trade economist says that the effect of putting up the sort of barriers to free trade that we are doing with the EU will result in a reduction of GDP of 4-8% compared to the baseline case of if we hadn't left the EU.


Dismissing that out of hand because you don't want to hear it is frankly pathetic. Have a sensible argument why they are wrong, or accept that they are likely to be right.

My comments on the ability of economic experts in making economic predictions are based on scientific studies so not in the least bit ignorant. See Tetlock and Gardner "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predictions" the pre-eminent work in this area. This was a case study of 20,000 individuals asking them to make predictions over a period of time. Their findings confirmed previously scientifically verified studies that economists are no better at making economic predictions than well-informed amateurs.

I'm neither ignoring nor dismissing the predictions out of hand but raising legitimate questions against them. Unlike yourself who is accepting these predictions unquestioningly. That is true ignorance.

I do have a sensible argument/question re why they're wrong which you are deliberately choosing not to answer:

 "Logically why will the new but relatively tiny border costs to those companies trading with the EU lead to the UK economy being as much as 4-8% smaller than it would have been some point in the future?"

I suppose you're ignoring my pretty fundamental question because, despite passionately supporting the 4-8% prediction, you haven't got a second clue as to how the numbers are arrived at and therefore can't in any meaningful way answer me.

Passionately supporting a supposition, simply because it meets your expectation, but being utterly unable to explain how it is derived. Now that is truly pathetic.

[SydneyRover]

Maybe it's now time for the economic rationalists to step forward and say why this addition to inflation is a good thing? It is after all a brexit dividend, no?

Sydney you won't be told will you? See my response 31 to this thread. It still holds. There is no evidence Brexit is significantly contributing to inflation.

And you will not refer to the original argument will you? which was 'anyone that thinks brexit will effect inflation is an idiot' not a bit, not a little bit, not a tad, not any, which bit of that don't you understand?

[normal rules]

Good mate of mine runs his own local business. He supplies the agriculture and engineering sector with mechanical parts and maintenance. The vast majority of his stock comes from Italy. He has suffered no noticeable loss since brexit. Quite the opposite. His business is booming.
My youngest son works for PWC in their London office.
They have never been so busy. PWC acknowledge that there will be some mid term drag from brexit, but the UK will maintain its position as a global financial powerhouse for some decades according to their projections. Take a look at their projections for countries relative to GDP for the coming years.
France to drop out of the top ten. Only Germany and UK remain in the top ten.

[SydneyRover]

The main and possibly only things about this bit of the brexit argument that concern me are the attempts to rewrite history that brexit is somehow fiscally neutral and or that it's effects are minimal. Minimal depends on ones situation and if it is anywhere near, above below or on the breadline it will hurt, and currently in Britain millions are.

[SydneyRover]

Good mate of mine runs his own local business. He supplies the agriculture and engineering sector with mechanical parts and maintenance. The vast majority of his stock comes from Italy. He has suffered no noticeable loss since brexit. Quite the opposite. His business is booming.
My youngest son works for PWC in their London office.
They have never been so busy. PWC acknowledge that there will be some mid term drag from brexit, but the UK will maintain its position as a global financial powerhouse for some decades according to their projections. Take a look at their projections for countries relative to GDP for the coming years.
France to drop out of the top ten. Only Germany and UK remain in the top ten.

You should have addressed this to Branton, NR.

[drfchound]

Branton.

You are as one with Rees-Mogg in insisting that Brexit's problems are overblown.

You are as one with Gove in proposing to ignore expert opinion when it tells you stuff you do not like.

Your comments ""economic experts are not particularly good" and "I, or you, therefore have just as much chance of making a correct forecast on the economic impact of Brexit as any macroecomic expert" are as ignorant as they are risible. Both could have come straight out of Gove's mouth.

The economics of trade is an extremely well-founded subject with an extremely strong foundation of logical theoretical models which have been generally validated by real world findings. Pretty much every trade economist says that the effect of putting up the sort of barriers to free trade that we are doing with the EU will result in a reduction of GDP of 4-8% compared to the baseline case of if we hadn't left the EU.


Dismissing that out of hand because you don't want to hear it is frankly pathetic. Have a sensible argument why they are wrong, or accept that they are likely to be right.

Quote by bst:
“You are at one with Gove in proposing to ignore expert opinion when it tells you stuff you do not like.”

Oh the irony. 

[normal rules]

Good mate of mine runs his own local business. He supplies the agriculture and engineering sector with mechanical parts and maintenance. The vast majority of his stock comes from Italy. He has suffered no noticeable loss since brexit. Quite the opposite. His business is booming.
My youngest son works for PWC in their London office.
They have never been so busy. PWC acknowledge that there will be some mid term drag from brexit, but the UK will maintain its position as a global financial powerhouse for some decades according to their projections. Take a look at their projections for countries relative to GDP for the coming years.
France to drop out of the top ten. Only Germany and UK remain in the top ten.

You should have addressed this to Branton, NR.

I was not addressing anyone specifically, other than those that want to read and digest.
It’s been said before, but any divorce, especially one with such deeply entrenched financial obligation and commitment, such as our membership of the EU regime, would suffer from short term loss and pain.

[SydneyRover]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg-economy-brexit_uk_5b54e3b5e4b0de86f48e3566

So the man who said it will take 50 years to see the benefits of Brexit is put in charge of exploiting the benefits of Brexit after 5 years?

I’m sure he’s scratching his head at the Breakfast table whilst Nanny butters his crumpets.

Is that a euphemism?

One area that mogg could address and solve many problems with the stroke of a pen would be to slash the red tape and free up access to foreign workers, but that would be admitting the house of cards is built with jokers.

[SydneyRover]

Good mate of mine runs his own local business. He supplies the agriculture and engineering sector with mechanical parts and maintenance. The vast majority of his stock comes from Italy. He has suffered no noticeable loss since brexit. Quite the opposite. His business is booming.
My youngest son works for PWC in their London office.
They have never been so busy. PWC acknowledge that there will be some mid term drag from brexit, but the UK will maintain its position as a global financial powerhouse for some decades according to their projections. Take a look at their projections for countries relative to GDP for the coming years.
France to drop out of the top ten. Only Germany and UK remain in the top ten.

You should have addressed this to Branton, NR.

I was not addressing anyone specifically, other than those that want to read and digest.
It’s been said before, but any divorce, especially one with such deeply entrenched financial obligation and commitment, such as our membership of the EU regime, would suffer from short term loss and pain.

I wasn't having a go at you NR but rather teasing Branton who has basically just dismissed all economic forecasts. But while I'm here .............. One swallow does not a summer make, it's very fortunate for your friend and good luck to him but it's not the norm.

And .............. 10s of thousands of british pigs slaughtered for no good reason with another couple of hundred thousand on death row, for what?

[normal rules]

Whilst I understand your frustration over a lack of Labour to slaughter our home grown pigs, which I share, it’s a bit of a jump to compare the fate of pigs over the next year or two compared to our National finances on the global scale over the next 28 yrs.
On the pig front, the whole industry was set up to fail. Far too much bulk productIon. We used to import a lot of pork from abroad too.
I can’t remember the last time I bought pork or sosig from a supermarket. I know someone locally who breeds his own pigs. Rare breed too.
He gets them slaughtered and butchered locally. From birth to plate, no more than 5 miles. Same price as supermarket and tastes so, so much better.
This is what we should be doing in the uk and in time I hope we do.
What the supermarkets don’t report is how much home grown pork goes in the bin as un sold or out of date.  The news of pigs being slaughtered makes headlines. The truth behind it doesn’t. There is no shortage of pork in the supermarkets.
Supermarkets buy far too much and pay far too little for it. They are crippling large parts of the farming industry.
Milk being a good example.