Brexit Dividend

[SydneyRover]

I need to add/correct my earlier statement about your mates business NR, it's not whether he is doing well it's how is brexit effecting it. Is brexit affecting competition? You'd have to look at turnover before brexit separate out the covid effect and look at business now, as the ONS has done recently to show that trade with the EU is down £20bn.

Lack of labour in all areas NR.

[normal rules]

I asked him that very question. It’s a microcosm of the big picture of course.
I am fully aware that the short term after affects of brexit are having an impact, and not necessarily a positive one.
I’ll re assess things in five years. Not next week.

[SydneyRover]

I asked him that very question. It’s a microcosm of the big picture of course.
I am fully aware that the short term after affects of brexit are having an impact, and not necessarily a positive one.
I’ll re assess things in five years. Not next week.

I'm afraid ''short term effects'' as far as trade with the EU is a misnomer there is no short as far as brexit is concerned, there will always be a drag on trade with the UK-EU it cannot be ignored, bypassed or gotten around, the only way to improve future trade with the EU would be a renegotiation.

Trade with the rest of the world could make up deficit but if what has been gained so far I it's not looking the best. And whenever trade deal is done, as with the one with Australia someone will suffer, short term the government are going to subsidise farmers for their losses and that goes on taxes, long term the deal expires and farmers suffer. The public get cheaper meat and wine but pay more taxes.

[SydneyRover]

I saw it on the side of a bus ..... Brexit the Forever Tax .......... Vote Tory

[SydneyRover]

''Skilled Worker visa Gov.UK''

Overview
Your job
When you can be paid less
If you work in healthcare or education
Knowledge of English
How much it costs
Documents you'll need to apply
Apply from outside the UK
Your partner and children
Extend your visa
Update your visa if you change job or employer
Switch to this visa
Taking on additional work
Overview
A Skilled Worker visa allows you to come to or stay in the UK to do an eligible job with an approved employer.

This visa has replaced the Tier 2 (General) work visa.

If you or your family are from the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein
If you or your family member started living in the UK by 31 December 2020, you may be able to apply to the free EU Settlement Scheme.

The deadline to apply was 30 June 2021 for most people. You can still apply if either:

you have a later deadline - for example, you’re joining a family member in the UK who was living in the UK by 31 December 2020
you have ‘reasonable grounds’ for being unable to apply by 30 June 2021 - for example, you had an illness or were the victim of domestic abuse
Check if you can still apply to the EU Settlement Scheme.

Otherwise you need a visa to work in the UK.

Irish citizens do not need to apply for a visa or to the EU Settlement Scheme.

Eligibility
Your job
To qualify for a Skilled Worker visa, you must:

work for a UK employer that’s been approved by the Home Office
have a ‘certificate of sponsorship’ from your employer with information about the role you’ve been offered in the UK
do a job that’s on the list of eligible occupations
be paid a minimum salary - how much depends on the type of work you do
The specific eligibility depends on your job.

You must have a confirmed job offer before you apply for your visa.

Knowledge of English
You must be able to speak, read, write and understand English. You’ll usually need to prove your knowledge of English when you apply.

If you’re not eligible for a Skilled Worker visa
You may be eligible for another type of visa to work in the UK.

How long you can stay
Your visa can last for up to 5 years before you need to extend it. You’ll need to apply to extend or update your visa when it expires or if you change jobs or employer.

If you want to stay longer in the UK
You can apply to extend your visa as many times as you like as long as you still meet the eligibility requirements.

After 5 years, you may be able to apply to settle permanently in the UK (also known as ‘indefinite leave to remain’). This gives you the right to live, work and study here for as long as you like, and apply for benefits if you’re eligible.

How to apply
You must apply online.

How you apply depends on whether you’re:

outside the UK and are coming to the UK
inside the UK and extending your current visa
inside the UK and switching from a different visa
If you want to change your job or employer, you must apply to update your visa.

You can include your partner and children in your application to stay in the UK if they are eligible.

How long it takes
You can apply for a visa up to 3 months before the day you are due to start work in the UK. This date is listed on your certificate of sponsorship.

As part of your application, you’ll need to prove your identity and provide your documents.

You may need to allow extra time if you need an appointment to do this. You’ll find out if you need one when you start your application.

Getting a decision
Once you’ve applied online, proved your identity and provided your documents, you’ll usually get a decision on your visa within:

3 weeks, if you’re outside the UK
8 weeks, if you’re inside the UK
You may be able to pay to get a faster decision. How you do this depends on whether you’re outside the UK or inside the UK.

How much it costs
You, your partner or children will each need to:

pay the application fee
pay the healthcare surcharge for each year of your stay
prove you have enough personal savings
Check how much money you’ll need.

If you work in public sector healthcare
If you’re a doctor or nurse, or you work in health or adult social care, check if you’re eligible to apply for the Health and Care Worker visa instead. It’s cheaper to apply for and you do not need to pay the annual immigration health surcharge.

What you can and cannot do
With a Skilled Worker visa you can:

work in an eligible job
study
bring your partner and children with you as your ‘dependants’, if they’re eligible
take on additional work in certain circumstances
do voluntary work
travel abroad and return to the UK
apply to settle permanently in the UK (also known as ‘indefinite leave to remain’) if you’ve lived in the UK for 5 years and meet the other eligibility requirements
You cannot:

apply for most benefits (public funds), or the State Pension
change jobs or employer unless you apply to update your visa
If your application is successful, you’ll get a full list of what you can and cannot do with a Skilled Worker visa.

 Next
:Your job
View a printable version of the whole guide
Related content
Check if you need a UK visa
Sponsorship: guidance for employers and educators
Applying for a visa to come to the UK
Explore the topic
Work in the UK

Is this page useful?

[danumdon]

SR you know for someone who supposedly lives the other side of the world you seem to have taken the Brexit situation very much to heart, i don't know how much it affects you currently but its obviously enough to render you into an agitated state with it all.

I'm imagining you must be feeling like someone who voted to stay out of the EEC in 1973 and again in 1975 when the decision was made to stay in the EEC, now i don't know if they were rabid about that decision for the 40 odd years that it was in place, campaigned to reverse it or just settled down to live their life and not fret about something they have no control over.

By all means talk about it and let off your steam but the incredulity looks very strong in this one?

Would bitter and twisted be a correct summary?

[SydneyRover]

SR you know for someone who supposedly lives the other side of the world you seem to have taken the Brexit situation very much to heart, i don't know how much it affects you currently but its obviously enough to render you into an agitated state with it all.

I'm imagining you must be feeling like someone who voted to stay out of the EEC in 1973 and again in 1975 when the decision was made to stay in the EEC, now i don't know if they were rabid about that decision for the 40 odd years that it was in place, campaigned to reverse it or just settled down to live their life and not fret about something they have no control over.

By all means talk about it and let off your steam but the incredulity looks very strong in this one?

Would bitter and twisted be a correct summary?

Couldn't be further from the truth DD, I'm just showing what a crap decision it was to elect a government that would do this to the country. They must be Britain haters or have swallowed the biggest con to bring this upon a once great nation. It doesn't make any sense, it never did.

edited

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

You are as one with Rees-Mogg in insisting that Brexit's problems are overblown.

You are as one with Gove in proposing to ignore expert opinion when it tells you stuff you do not like.

Your comments ""economic experts are not particularly good" and "I, or you, therefore have just as much chance of making a correct forecast on the economic impact of Brexit as any macroecomic expert" are as ignorant as they are risible. Both could have come straight out of Gove's mouth.

The economics of trade is an extremely well-founded subject with an extremely strong foundation of logical theoretical models which have been generally validated by real world findings. Pretty much every trade economist says that the effect of putting up the sort of barriers to free trade that we are doing with the EU will result in a reduction of GDP of 4-8% compared to the baseline case of if we hadn't left the EU.


Dismissing that out of hand because you don't want to hear it is frankly pathetic. Have a sensible argument why they are wrong, or accept that they are likely to be right.

My comments on the ability of economic experts in making economic predictions are based on scientific studies so not in the least bit ignorant. See Tetlock and Gardner "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predictions" the pre-eminent work in this area. This was a case study of 20,000 individuals asking them to make predictions over a period of time. Their findings confirmed previously scientifically verified studies that economists are no better at making economic predictions than well-informed amateurs.

I'm neither ignoring nor dismissing the predictions out of hand but raising legitimate questions against them. Unlike yourself who is accepting these predictions unquestioningly. That is true ignorance.

I do have a sensible argument/question re why they're wrong which you are deliberately choosing not to answer:

 "Logically why will the new but relatively tiny border costs to those companies trading with the EU lead to the UK economy being as much as 4-8% smaller than it would have been some point in the future?"

I suppose you're ignoring my pretty fundamental question because, despite passionately supporting the 4-8% prediction, you haven't got a second clue as to how the numbers are arrived at and therefore can't in any meaningful way answer me.

Passionately supporting a supposition, simply because it meets your expectation, but being utterly unable to explain how it is derived. Now that is truly pathetic.

1) On economics in general, you are making a fundamental error. You are conflating forecasting of the detail of the entire economic system with analysis of the effect of a specific mechanism. The former is extremely hard. The latter is far more tractable.

Let me give you an analogy. No meterologist will be able to predict what the weather will be like at Clock Corner  at twenty five past three in the afternoon of 17 May 2061. But they do know that if we don't reduce CO2 emissions by then, the average global temperature that year will almost certainly be higher than it would have been if we had reduced emissions.

Because you can separate and quantify the effect of individual mechanisms.

That's what trade economists do when assessing the effect of Brexit. They don't say what GDP will be in 2030 because there are too many unknown factors. But they CAN predict what the likely effect will be on GDP level of our decision to make it much harder to trade with the biggest and richest market in history, on our doorstep.

Now, you might claim that Brexit will open other opportunities which will more than make up for that loss. But if you don't specify what they are, preferring to high handedly dismiss economics, pardon me if I put you in the shelf with Rees-Mogg and Gove. Because that is precisely what they are doing.

2) As far as I can see, there's only you, Farage and Rees-Mogg claiming that the costs of Brexit are "tiny". So excuse me if I pass on engaging with a false hypothesis.

[Colin C No.3]

Have they caught that great white shark yet?

[drfchound]

SR you know for someone who supposedly lives the other side of the world you seem to have taken the Brexit situation very much to heart, i don't know how much it affects you currently but its obviously enough to render you into an agitated state with it all.

I'm imagining you must be feeling like someone who voted to stay out of the EEC in 1973 and again in 1975 when the decision was made to stay in the EEC, now i don't know if they were rabid about that decision for the 40 odd years that it was in place, campaigned to reverse it or just settled down to live their life and not fret about something they have no control over.

By all means talk about it and let off your steam but the incredulity looks very strong in this one?

Would bitter and twisted be a correct summary?

Couldn't be further from the truth DD, I'm just showing what a crap decision it was to elect a government that would do this to the country. They must be Britain haters or have swallowed the biggest con to bring this upon a once great nation. It doesn't make any sense, it never did.

edited

……this from a man who left the uk years ago after telling everyone that it was f**ked.

[selby]

And in the meantime last month the world coal miners produced the highest ever tonnage of coal ever for power production, China alone over 3 billion tons, just to upset Greta and Syd.
  We must be mad, and will have an argument over one coal mine.

[Sprotyrover]

SR you know for someone who supposedly lives the other side of the world you seem to have taken the Brexit situation very much to heart, i don't know how much it affects you currently but its obviously enough to render you into an agitated state with it all.

I'm imagining you must be feeling like someone who voted to stay out of the EEC in 1973 and again in 1975 when the decision was made to stay in the EEC, now i don't know if they were rabid about that decision for the 40 odd years that it was in place, campaigned to reverse it or just settled down to live their life and not fret about something they have no control over.

By all means talk about it and let off your steam but the incredulity looks very strong in this one?

Would bitter and twisted be a correct summary?

Couldn't be further from the truth DD, I'm just showing what a crap decision it was to elect a government that would do this to the country. They must be Britain haters or have swallowed the biggest con to bring this upon a once great nation. It doesn't make any sense, it never did.

edited

……this from a man who left the uk years ago after telling everyone that it was f**ked.

Yeah I remember the day he trotted up the South stand stairs and told his buddies that he was leaving and that this country was a dogs dinner. Good riddance I thought but he won't let go, he must hate it over there,having to eek out a living as a Skip rat!

[selby]

 He had buddies? poor buggers.

[selby]

  Macron has been reported to be having to pump £2billion into EDF  after capping energy prices.
  Surprising really seeing how they sounded off about government help to the Scunthorpe works.

[Sprotyrover]

  Macron has been reported to be having to pump £2billion into EDF  after capping energy prices.
  Surprising really seeing how they sounded off about government help to the Scunthorpe works.

It's not a problem Shelby as one of the founding fathers of the EEC the French can do whatever they like!

[SydneyRover]

Have they caught that great white shark yet?

They are checking dental records

[SydneyRover]

  Macron has been reported to be having to pump £2billion into EDF  after capping energy prices.
  Surprising really seeing how they sounded off about government help to the Scunthorpe works.

re-read the is Donny dangerous thread sellby to see what your party has contributed to the country and see what people think of the town before sounding off about other countries aye?

[wilts rover]

And in the meantime last month the world coal miners produced the highest ever tonnage of coal ever for power production, China alone over 3 billion tons, just to upset Greta and Syd.
  We must be mad, and will have an argument over one coal mine.

China's socialist and communist - why do we want to be like China?

China has coal mines - why can't we be like China?

The right-whinger manifesto right there - argue against everything today, pretend you never said it and argue the exact opposite tomorrow - doesn't matter if it's true or not if a bloke/woman with a posh voice says it.

[wilts rover]

who knew!

[SydneyRover]

Oops

[Branton Red]

Billy

1)  I concede it is easier for economists to assess more specific economic areas due to economic modelling than e.g. you or I.

2) This does not negate the impact of bad forecasting - it exaggerates it. Economists do not possess perfect economic models of the economy they can make an input in to generate a %GDP change output. Each model requires many assumptions (e.g. how much of the cost increase can be passed on in price rises, how will this impact sales, how will higher import costs impact inflation etc etc) i.e. a number of forecasts are required. Bad forecasters' mistakes will multiply - the problem of poor forecasting will be higher.

3) Most economic experts predicted Brexit would lead to a higher rate of unemployment in the short term. The unemployment rate has fallen from 5.0% in June 2016 to 4.1% now. You could argue this is down to other factors but the key event, Covid, despite the furlough scheme, would be expected to increase unemployment. Most of the economic models were wrong.

4) You're proposing an economic forecast (which science shows are often inaccurate) of a hit somewhere in the massive range of 4-8% of GDP, over an indeterminate timeframe, based on economic models (which exaggerate inaccurate forecasting) that have already been shown to be flawed on this subject and you're unable to explain the logic behind this forecast. Oh and I'm pathetic for not accepting you're right!

5) I accept the basic logic that increased border costs, in of themselves, will have an economic hit, I'm just highly sceptical of the scale you're suggesting.

6) I did not state the overall cost of Brexit is tiny. I said the additional costs at the border are relatively tiny (see JD*). Earlier in this thread I estimated the cost of Brexit to Dec 19 to be 2% of GDP* - please point out where Farage/Rees-Mogg have claimed as such.

7) I have calculated/analyzed/made decisions on more economic data than you've had hot dinners in my career  - I use economic data all the time (e.g. *s above). Economists are brilliant at assessing historical data which can be used to inform future decisions. They are not great at forecasting. I am not dismissing your economics but questioning it as I would any economic forecast - you are unable to provide answers.

8) I don't need to explain 'opportunities of Brexit' I can simply point to the historical economic data that shows that since the formation of the EU in 1993 to 2019 when we left, the combined economic growth of the 12 original members, and the UK individually, was significantly behind that of every other major developed economy except Japan. A significance that dwarfs your top end 8%. The EU (not EEC) has been comparatively disastrous for the economies of Western Europe. The safest economic prediction is always that long term trends will continue.

This conclusion is based on the science of assessing historical economic information not the dubious art of economic conjecture.

[SydneyRover]

''In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario''

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#:~:text=Immediate%20impact%20on%20the%20UK%20economy,-Immediate%20impact%20of&text=Studies%20published%20in%202018%20estimated,by%200.6%25%20and%201.3%25.

Did anyone see this on a bus?

[SydneyRover]

''Red Dwarf, Peter Tranter's Sister''

How brexit has duped so many.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhGrSJJZo0s

[tyke1962]

Thatcher if not the biggest but certainly one of them was certainly a cheer leader and more for the creation of the  single market .

As far as I'm concerned anytime that women put her name to anything history tells you it was flawed , massively flawed for the vast majority of working people .

50 % of working people give or take  fecked it off when given the opportunity .

Unlike GE's there was an alternative to the status quo , the referendum wasn't ring fenced .

Enough took advantage of that and whilst it led to a Johnson government lets be clear we will be out of the EU far longer than Johnson is PM that much I do know .

Yep it's a shyte show at the moment and I've even questioned my own view but it's also a long game too .

We are a pretty resourceful country when our backs are against the wall and I'm sure we will be again .

[SydneyRover]

I think many have got passed unicorns and sunny uplands and would settle for a break on the clouds.

[SydneyRover]

Thatcher if not the biggest but certainly one of them was certainly a cheer leader and more for the creation of the  single market .

As far as I'm concerned anytime that women put her name to anything history tells you it was flawed , massively flawed for the vast majority of working people .

50 % of working people give or take  fecked it off when given the opportunity .

Unlike GE's there was an alternative to the status quo , the referendum wasn't ring fenced .

Enough took advantage of that and whilst it led to a Johnson government lets be clear we will be out of the EU far longer than Johnson is PM that much I do know .

Yep it's a shyte show at the moment and I've even questioned my own view but it's also a long game too .

We are a pretty resourceful country when our backs are against the wall and I'm sure we will be again .

''In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario''

How long do you need Tyke?

[tyke1962]

Thatcher if not the biggest but certainly one of them was certainly a cheer leader and more for the creation of the  single market .

As far as I'm concerned anytime that women put her name to anything history tells you it was flawed , massively flawed for the vast majority of working people .

50 % of working people give or take  fecked it off when given the opportunity .

Unlike GE's there was an alternative to the status quo , the referendum wasn't ring fenced .

Enough took advantage of that and whilst it led to a Johnson government lets be clear we will be out of the EU far longer than Johnson is PM that much I do know .

Yep it's a shyte show at the moment and I've even questioned my own view but it's also a long game too .

We are a pretty resourceful country when our backs are against the wall and I'm sure we will be again .

''In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario''

How long do you need Tyke?

I suppose the significant difference between us is that whilst you post links to this that and the other from publications that tell you what you want to hear .

Others possibly have real life experience and voted accordingly when they were given the opportunity .

It would appear that over 50% had real life experience as oppose to reading The Guardian online in Australia .

Real life tends to play out at the ballot box and despite its obvious critics is pretty much final and even more so in a referendum as oppose to the rigged electoral system we have in the UK .

If the EU was that great to enough of the electorate we'd still be in it .

Hmm the ballot box says different but if you want to slide up to the ghost of Thatcher then knock yourself out cobber .

[SydneyRover]

Thatcher if not the biggest but certainly one of them was certainly a cheer leader and more for the creation of the  single market .

As far as I'm concerned anytime that women put her name to anything history tells you it was flawed , massively flawed for the vast majority of working people .

50 % of working people give or take  fecked it off when given the opportunity .

Unlike GE's there was an alternative to the status quo , the referendum wasn't ring fenced .

Enough took advantage of that and whilst it led to a Johnson government lets be clear we will be out of the EU far longer than Johnson is PM that much I do know .

Yep it's a shyte show at the moment and I've even questioned my own view but it's also a long game too .

We are a pretty resourceful country when our backs are against the wall and I'm sure we will be again .

''In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario''

How long do you need Tyke?

I suppose the significant difference between us is that whilst you post links to this that and the other from publications that tell you what you want to hear .

Others possibly have real life experience and voted accordingly when they were given the opportunity .

It would appear that over 50% had real life experience as oppose to reading The Guardian online in Australia .

Real life tends to play out at the ballot box and despite its obvious critics is pretty much final and even more so in a referendum as oppose to the rigged electoral system we have in the UK .

If the EU was that great to enough of the electorate we'd still be in it .

Hmm the ballot box says different but if you want to slide up to the ghost of Thatcher then knock yourself out cobber .

Yes we know the tories are good if not great at marketing, just look at whom they sucked in? What does your life experience tell you about hmmm ..... let's think about the some of the twaddle from the 'ideas factory' oh yes how is the Northern Powerhouse trip going? coupled of course with 'big society' wouldn't that sort of make 'levelling up' a bit redundant?

A man went to the bank for a business loan .................. Ah yes animal husbandry I think was the plan Mr Public?

Yes yes, I'm thinking of a breeding establishment that will not only create jobs but generate wealth for everyone.

And you have taken into consideration a massive stud already established just across the canal Joe, you don't mind if I call you Joe?

No, no I've looked into it all here is my business plan ...............

Oh, unicorns ............... a 15 year gestation period is a tad long don't you think Joe?

[BigH]

In the interests of balance, some encouraging news on how Brexit is stimulating pursuit of non-EU markets:

https://www.rsmuk.com/ideas-and-insights/brexit-encourages-uk-pursue-international-markets-outside-eu

[SydneyRover]

In the interests of balance, some encouraging news on how Brexit is stimulating pursuit of non-EU markets:

https://www.rsmuk.com/ideas-and-insights/brexit-encourages-uk-pursue-international-markets-outside-eu

It's all good, in fact the more the better BH, but I'd have thought a company like RSM would have been able to put a number on it though.