Brexit Dividend

[wilts rover]

I suppose the significant difference between us is that whilst you post links to this that and the other from publications that tell you what you want to hear .

Others possibly have real life experience and voted accordingly when they were given the opportunity .

It would appear that over 50% had real life experience as oppose to reading The Guardian online in Australia .

Real life tends to play out at the ballot box and despite its obvious critics is pretty much final and even more so in a referendum as oppose to the rigged electoral system we have in the UK .

If the EU was that great to enough of the electorate we'd still be in it .

Hmm the ballot box says different but if you want to slide up to the ghost of Thatcher then knock yourself out cobber .

What actual 'real-life' experiences of the EU did you have Tyke? Not the political choices of the UK government - but the EU?

We know now that what Johnson, Farage and the like were promising as benefits of the leaving were false, just made up lies, so there must have been something else?

Brexit was a project enacted by millionaires on behalf of billionaires to reduce regulation protecting workers and ordinary people's lives - so they could make more money and pass on less to you.

Take for example clean water. In your youth the beaches, rivers and canals in the UK were filty due to UK government policy. The EU passed regulation to clean up waterways and beaches. On leaving the Johnson government scrapped this and now allows unlimited dumping or raw sewage, without penalty, anywhere. Beaches, canals and rivers are once again filthy.

It's a fantasy tyke, you bought a right-wing Tory unicorn. We have to make the best of it, but that wont happen until you (and others) stop insisiting unicorns exist.

[wilts rover]

Or maybe this real life experience:

I've just noticed a new benefit of Brexit in Tesco, all oranges had on their label "treated with Imazalil"

The use of this chemical is banned in the EU as it exerts a high inflammatory potential & causes leukocytosis.
Small amounts are dangerous as it accumulates in organs

https://twitter.com/MikeEllis132/status/1494386788827377665

Lower food standards mean greater profits for the shareholders at mulitnationals - with greater risk to workers who produce them and people who eat them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I see there's no shifting you on accepting economic prediction on the effect of putting up trade barriers.

So how about evidence of what HAS happened.

The OBR calculates that, by August last year, the effect of Brexit had been to reduce our trade with the EU by 15.8%.

https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade-with-the-eu/

You still insistent on sticking to the line that the costs are tiny?

[drfchound]

''In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario''

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#:~:text=Immediate%20impact%20on%20the%20UK%20economy,-Immediate%20impact%20of&text=Studies%20published%20in%202018%20estimated,by%200.6%25%20and%201.3%25.

Did anyone see this on a bus?

Interesting that wiki is now considered to be gospel.
You do realise that anyone can write stuff in there.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

I see there's no shifting you on accepting economic prediction on the effect of putting up trade barriers.

So how about evidence of what HAS happened.

The OBR calculates that, by August last year, the effect of Brexit had been to reduce our trade with the EU by 15.8%.

https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade-with-the-eu/

You still insistent on sticking to the line that the costs are tiny?

Billy

Stop misquoting me to repeat myself "I did not state the overall cost of Brexit is tiny. I said the additional costs at the border are relatively tiny (see JD Sports). Earlier in this thread I estimated the cost of Brexit to Dec 19 to be 2% of GDP." 2% is not tiny.

I'd be more willing to consider the credibility of your quoted economic predictions if you could describe how they were derived and what assumptions underlie them.

As for your OBR article. 2 major problems: -

1) Your 15.8% is not calculated by the OBR but by the Centre of European Reform who per their web site are based in London and are "devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world. We are pro-European". So hardly politically neutral then.

2) It's only comparing the first 8 months of 2021 v 2019. January 21 EU exports were down 45% due to the new rules being introduced. Dec 20 EU exports however were unusually high (2nd highest since March 19). Clearly business' were understandably getting exports in before the new rules arrived (the same appears to have happened in Dec 21). No such pattern in non-EU exports. The data being compared is therefore skewed.

Comparing the whole of 2021 to 2019 i.e. pre-pandemic using ONS data:

- EU exports were 11.1% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl4/mret
- Non-EU exports were 14.0% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl7/mret

Please point out the Brexit hit.

I suggest you investigate and corroborate your data before sharing it on here and asking me to comment on it. Because you can be damned sure I will and I don't particularly like showing people up.

You still insistent on sticking to the line that Brexit will cause GDP to fall by as much as 8%?!

[foxbat]

Brexit Benefits so far seem only -
"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.

The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.

[Branton Red]

Brexit Benefits so far seem only -
"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.

The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.

It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.

Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.

Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.

[Ldr]

Branton.

I see there's no shifting you on accepting economic prediction on the effect of putting up trade barriers.

So how about evidence of what HAS happened.

The OBR calculates that, by August last year, the effect of Brexit had been to reduce our trade with the EU by 15.8%.

https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade-with-the-eu/

You still insistent on sticking to the line that the costs are tiny?

Billy

Stop misquoting me to repeat myself "I did not state the overall cost of Brexit is tiny. I said the additional costs at the border are relatively tiny (see JD Sports). Earlier in this thread I estimated the cost of Brexit to Dec 19 to be 2% of GDP." 2% is not tiny.

I'd be more willing to consider the credibility of your quoted economic predictions if you could describe how they were derived and what assumptions underlie them.

As for your OBR article. 2 major problems: -

1) Your 15.8% is not calculated by the OBR but by the Centre of European Reform who per their web site are based in London and are "devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world. We are pro-European". So hardly politically neutral then.

2) It's only comparing the first 8 months of 2021 v 2019. January 21 EU exports were down 45% due to the new rules being introduced. Dec 20 EU exports however were unusually high (2nd highest since March 19). Clearly business' were understandably getting exports in before the new rules arrived (the same appears to have happened in Dec 21). No such pattern in non-EU exports. The data being compared is therefore skewed.

Comparing the whole of 2021 to 2019 i.e. pre-pandemic using ONS data:

- EU exports were 11.1% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl4/mret
- Non-EU exports were 14.0% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl7/mret

Please point out the Brexit hit.

I suggest you investigate and corroborate your data before sharing it on here and asking me to comment on it. Because you can be damned sure I will and I don't particularly like showing people up.

You still insistent on sticking to the line that Brexit will cause GDP to fall by as much as 8%?!

Another lie or another error BST?

[Branton Red]

Ldr

To be fair to Billy (or BST) I don't for a second think he's lying.

Brexit is an emotive issue for some and they have deeply held views - on both sides. Nothing wrong with that.

The problem Billy and others have is that they suffer from something psychologists call Confirmation Bias

They see an article supporting their view, think "I knew I was right!" and share it/discuss it etc without checking the facts behind it.

Where (as in this case) we're talking easily verifiable historical economic data, because they've not double-checked their sources, they can so easily be made to look rather silly by someone that does do those checks afterward.

PS Great avatar btw - I remember seeing that happen

[wilts rover]

Brexit Benefits so far seem only -
"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.

The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.

It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.

Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.

Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.

You sure that 14% is correct Branton - is that not all exports rather than Non-EU?

Here the fall from ONS figures comparing 2021 - 2018 is

EU - £20 billion or 12%
Non-EU - £10 billion or 6%

The EU export figures would have been worse if it were not for the rise in gas exports. Big falls in many retail/consumer goods.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/december2021

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/11/uk-exports-to-eu-fell-by-20bn-last-year-new-ons-data-shows

[Branton Red]

Hi Wilts

Yes I'm sure

Check the figures on the links I provided.

The Guardian are comparing to 2018 levels not 2019. I assume for political expediency. There was a large rise in non-EU exports between 2018 and 2019 (6%) which they dismiss by quoting a year earlier.

The Guardian also state non-EU exports fell £10bn or 6% vs 2018 - this is incorrect it's £15bn and 9%.

Like I said always double check the sources you quote 

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Or maybe this real life experience:

I've just noticed a new benefit of Brexit in Tesco, all oranges had on their label "treated with Imazalil"

The use of this chemical is banned in the EU as it exerts a high inflammatory potential & causes leukocytosis.
Small amounts are dangerous as it accumulates in organs

https://twitter.com/MikeEllis132/status/1494386788827377665

Lower food standards mean greater profits for the shareholders at mulitnationals - with greater risk to workers who produce them and people who eat them.

Worth reading down the thread, it's an incorrect assumption.

It is not banned in the EU nor is it in the UK where the exact same rules are in place.

Perhaps we should go further on the standard as a brexit benefit?

[tyke1962]

As I've said you can all quote and link what ever you want to endorse what you want to read  it much doesn't matter to me .

The single market was a part Thatcher creation and fully endorsed by that women .

That's a solid fact and you navigate yourselves around that fact all you want but it's still fact .

Anytime anybody who puts their name to anything Thatcher had a hand in should probably have a deep look in to what it is they actually stand for .

But hey ho it's better to be Thatcher with a red rosette on ?

Ain't that the truth .

[SydneyRover]

As I've said you can all quote and link what ever you want to endorse what you want to read  it much doesn't matter to me .

The single market was a part Thatcher creation and fully endorsed by that women .

That's a solid fact and you navigate yourselves around that fact all you want but it's still fact .

Anytime anybody who puts their name to anything Thatcher had a hand in should probably have a deep look in to what it is they actually stand for .

But hey ho it's better to be Thatcher with a red rosette on ?

Ain't that the truth .

when did you find out the guardian was run by a trust and has a charter tyke and not owned by billionaires .................... do you require reminding each week?

[tyke1962]

As I've said you can all quote and link what ever you want to endorse what you want to read  it much doesn't matter to me .

The single market was a part Thatcher creation and fully endorsed by that women .

That's a solid fact and you navigate yourselves around that fact all you want but it's still fact .

Anytime anybody who puts their name to anything Thatcher had a hand in should probably have a deep look in to what it is they actually stand for .

But hey ho it's better to be Thatcher with a red rosette on ?

Ain't that the truth .

when did you find out the guardian was run by a trust and has a charter tyke and not owned by billionaires .................... do you require reminding each week?

Unfortunately your weak straw man attempt will bear no fruit with the likes of me Sydney .

Try and at least to debate my point that was presented to you .

Everything that's wrong with this country started in 1979 and we've ended up here as a consequence .

Just for the record can you place any other Thatcher policies that you enthusiastically endorsed ?

In the interests of balance of course .

[Glyn_Wigley]

Brexit Benefits so far seem only -
"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.

The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.

It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.

Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.

Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.

Because UK goods are now much more expensive to EU customers, and they will now buy from cheaper suppliers inside the Single Market. It is that simple.

[SydneyRover]

The guardian which you constantly rail against, run by the Scott trust since 1936 and abides by a ethical and editorial independence code, born out of the Peterloo massacre which up until a matter of weeks ago you thought was owned by billionaires Tyke.

the world according to garp

[BillyStubbsTears]

Brexit Benefits so far seem only -
"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.

The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.

It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.

Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.

Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.

Because UK goods are now much more expensive to EU customers, and they will now buy from cheaper suppliers inside the Single Market. It is that simple.

Also, here's a thing.

The exports of Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands (I got bored searching after those first 5) are all at levels as high or higher than they were before COVID. Ours are very much lower.

Which is why the report that the OBR quoted (hands up: my mistake, it wasn't the OBR's own work) compares our trend to a datum based on the trends of similar countries, rather than taking our own figures in isolation.

Unfortunately, Branton, despite his clear intelligence, does the Zeitgeist thing of off handedly ignoring that analysis because it comes from the other side.

Then he says I suffer from confirmation bias.

Hey ho...

[SydneyRover]

A band of desperados picking over the carcass of a dead cat looking for infinitesimally small advantages of brexit that disappear as smoke under scrutiny.

The main fact remains, the wealthiest bloc in the world sits on the opposite bank and brexit has just put up barriers to that market.

The other side to brexit will be longer term, unfortunately they won't be benefits, but will be the dismantling of protections of everything from the environment to workers rights.

[aidanstu]

As I've said you can all quote and link what ever you want to endorse what you want to read  it much doesn't matter to me .

The single market was a part Thatcher creation and fully endorsed by that women .

That's a solid fact and you navigate yourselves around that fact all you want but it's still fact .

Anytime anybody who puts their name to anything Thatcher had a hand in should probably have a deep look in to what it is they actually stand for .

But hey ho it's better to be Thatcher with a red rosette on ?

Ain't that the truth .

I’m a bit confused Tyke; you’re a Conservative that opposes Thatcher? Or. Conservative that voted for Boris, who was always a remainer until it suited his political ambitions? Which Conservative leader did you vote for who held similar political views at their core? I’m not having a go I’m just curious.

Also what personal, tangible, benefits have you or this country gained from leaving the EU? and what, honestly, do you think the detrimental impacts have been? 

[wilts rover]

Hi Wilts

Yes I'm sure

Check the figures on the links I provided.

The Guardian are comparing to 2018 levels not 2019. I assume for political expediency. There was a large rise in non-EU exports between 2018 and 2019 (6%) which they dismiss by quoting a year earlier.

The Guardian also state non-EU exports fell £10bn or 6% vs 2018 - this is incorrect it's £15bn and 9%.

Like I said always double check the sources you quote 

Thanks Branton, will do. I just presumed you had taken your figures from the offical ONS stats - where the Guardian say their figures are from.

Looking at the ONS figures in the link, for me the thing that jumps out most are not the exports, which are fairly flat, but the big jump in Non-EU imports from Sept onwards. So we are exporting less but importing more.

[Branton Red]

Wilts

To be clear my figures are from ONS stats see below extract from my earlier post to BST

"Comparing the whole of 2021 to 2019 i.e. pre-pandemic using ONS data:

- EU exports were 11.1% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl4/mret
- Non-EU exports were 14.0% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl7/mret

Please point out the Brexit hit."

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

You are looking at the UK in isolation.

You need to ask yourself the question:

Why have total exports and imports risen back to pre-pandemic levels in every major EU economy, and USA and China, but are still well below them in the UK?

Occam's Razor suggests that we should look to first order big factors first. The key first order difference between the UK and the rest of the world is that we alone put up major trade barriers with a key partner. Maybe that has had wider implications for our ability to trade full stop. For example, in taking up customs paperwork processing capacity? In reducing key imports that are required for incorporation into things that we would then export to the rest of the world?

I don't know. But what I do know is that we in the UK are globally unique in the hit that we've had. And you won't see that if you insist on ignoring global data.

The fact that we alone of the major global economies  are not trading as strongly as before with BOTH the EU and the rest of the world is not evidence that the Brexit effect has been negligible. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

May I suggest you consider the numbers in the table at the bottom of page 2 here, Branton?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/151969.htm&ved=2ahUKEwjq6LfamI72AhVZi1wKHaqQBdMQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3h6gUBwJanQ0JY89yYAkYF

Apologies that it only refers to the difference between 2020 and 2021, but that's all I've been able to find while dealing with a roof leak.

PS.
In the interests of being fair and transparent, I should bring attention to this note in that documents.

"As of January 2021 onwards, data on trade with the United Kingdom is based on a mixed concept. In application of the Withdrawal Agreement Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland, for trade with Northern Ireland the statistical concepts applicable  are the same as those for trade between Member States while for trade with the United Kingdom (excluding Northern Ireland)  the same statistical concepts are applicable as for trade with any other extra-EU partner country.
For these reasons data on trade with the United Kingdom are not fully comparable with data on trade with other extra-EU trade  partners, and for reference periods before and after the end of 2020."

However, it would stretch credibility to imagine that the massive difference in EU trade with the UK compared to EU trade with everywhere else could be explained, even in reasonably large part, by NI-Eire trade now being not classed as UK-EU trade.

[wilts rover]

Wilts

To be clear my figures are from ONS stats see below extract from my earlier post to BST

"Comparing the whole of 2021 to 2019 i.e. pre-pandemic using ONS data:

- EU exports were 11.1% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl4/mret
- Non-EU exports were 14.0% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl7/mret

Please point out the Brexit hit."

Yes thanks Branton

These are the graphs from the ONS figures. As I said whilst exports have pretty much flatlined, what jumps out to me is the rise in Non-EU imports.

Presumably thats a Brexit benefit?

[Branton Red]

Yes thanks Branton

These are the graphs from the ONS figures. As I said whilst exports have pretty much flatlined, what jumps out to me is the rise in Non-EU imports.

Presumably thats a Brexit benefit?

I agree Wilts. There has been a clear shift away from importing from the EU towards importing from outside the EU since the transition period. Yet we don't have a particularly different inflation rate compared to other countries. So I'm not sure if it's an economic benefit/cost or not?

Probably not great for our carbon footprint mind.

[Branton Red]

It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.

Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.

Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.

Because UK goods are now much more expensive to EU customers, and they will now buy from cheaper suppliers inside the Single Market. It is that simple.

I understand that concept Glyn. The question though is why have exports fallen to non-EU countries by a higher amount as they shouldn't be more expensive to the non-EU customers?

[Branton Red]

Also, here's a thing.

The exports of Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands (I got bored searching after those first 5) are all at levels as high or higher than they were before COVID. Ours are very much lower.

Which is why the report that the OBR quoted (hands up: my mistake, it wasn't the OBR's own work) compares our trend to a datum based on the trends of similar countries, rather than taking our own figures in isolation.

Unfortunately, Branton, despite his clear intelligence, does the Zeitgeist thing of off handedly ignoring that analysis because it comes from the other side.

Then he says I suffer from confirmation bias.

Hey ho...

Thanks Billy. Not sure you can avoid an accusation of confirmation bias for checking numbers after someone has questioned you on them 

The CER explanation of how their numbers were derived defeated even my intelligence I'm afraid. Hence my scepticism. I don't trust unverifiable data esp from obviously biased sources. I therefore still don't trust their 15.8% - their figure from 1 month later jumped to 11.2% just for info.

However you've gone further than I did re checking the trade of other countries so fair play to you. This at least gives credence to the fact that Brexit has had an impact on trade. Plus has given me pause for thought.

I was (and still am) surprised that non-EU exports have fallen more than EU exports. Prima facie suggesting little to no Brexit impact.

To be clear I did expect some impact on Brexit on trade (and therefore GDP) and this to be higher immediately after new rules were introduced - hence my surprise. I just don't (and still don't*) anticipate anywhere near the 4-8% you're putting forward - and unable to explain. Scepticism of unverifiable data from an obviously biased (no offence) source again.

I don't think the higher fall in non-EU exports can be dismissed out of hand. I get there would be some knock on effect on them from these new rules - but to such an extent that they fall more than EU exports, which are directly effected, defies credibility.

Clearly something else is going on here on the non-EU export side which may or may not have impacted EU exports too. I've no idea what though.

* The OBR reckon Brexit will reduce trade long-term 15% leading to 4% lower GDP. My thoughts are EU trade will pick up again once business'/government agencies get used to administering the new rules. I might be wrong. Even the CER only have the impact on trade currently at 11.2%. On this basis I still can't believe your 4-8%. Sorry.

[SydneyRover]

Would 50,000 extra civil servants make us less efficient, who pays for that? One would expect that to be inflationary.

[SydneyRover]

Here's an estimate of costs

''British business faces £7bn red tape bill under Brexit border plan
Government’s ‘new start’ will generate 215m customs declarations a year and need 50,000 extra customs agents''

''
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   https://www.ft.com/content/fbc6f191-6d69-4dcb-b374-0fa6e48a9a1e

   Mr Gove has not disputed industry estimates that some 50,000 new private sector customs agents will have to be hired by business to deal with formalities at the UK-EU border — regardless of whether the two sides reach a trade deal.

The cabinet minister was speaking on the day the government launched an upbeat advertising campaign to prepare the country for the end of the Brexit transition deal on January 1, under the strapline: “UK’s new start — let’s get going”''


https://www.ft.com/content/fbc6f191-6d69-4dcb-b374-0fa6e48a9a1e