Brexit deal

[Bentley Bullet]

Na then owd lad. I never asked you to get involved in the first place.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Then you could have ignored what I said.

Goodnight.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I've never noticed anybody inviting BB to get involved but he still does.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I just assumed on an open thread that anyone was welcome to join in. If you have a specific question that you don't want anyone else to get involved in, there's PMs.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. I responded to your reply. It was you who started the sarcasm with your response to that!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

But that's just it. You didn't respond to my reply. You started off a totally different line. I gave you a clear and substantia or answer to the specific question you posed, and your response was to say something totally different.

I haven't really got the energy or the time to keep on engaging with you like that so I'm going to leave you to it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Back on substantive points, David Davis on the Marr show has just shown the rotten core of the Leave argument. The glib lying that underpins everything they argue about.

Davis has just said that we should still threaten No Deal because the EU is terrified about it. He said "Every study has shown that the effect of No Deal will be an order of magnitude worse for the EU than for us."

That is absolute, copper plated b*llocks. But there's an ex-senior Govt minister sat on national TV, spouting it. And not being held to account on it. 

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. I responded to your reply! It told you what I thought of it! I thought it gave an impression that you thought it was only Tory party members who wanted Brexit.

In response to your second paragraph, I never asked you to get involved in the first place!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB
You were asking about the rich and elite in the 1970s. I gave you an answer on that. For some reason, you extrapolated from that an (incorrect) assumption about who I think supports Brexit now.

If you extract something useful from doing that then I chuffed for you. Me, I'm done.

[wilts rover]

If you are interested in speculating how Tuesday's vote will go there is a great spreadsheet linked here showing what the compiler thinks each individual MP's views are.

Projected result - defeat of over 200 and not yet enough support for a 2nd ref.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

[Copps is Magic]

Wilts, some useful information. Sorry for stating the obvious but there is currently no changes to the withdrawal agreement as we stand so it doesn't take some complex analysis to know the vote is almost certainly going the same way it went last time (save for some minor shifts in 'conscience'). It seems to me a formality that A50 will be extended.

The grown-up question the government really needs to ask themselves are the terms upon which they will re-enter negotiations. It can't be May's current terms that is clear. She has to look at the arithmetic in parliament - pandering to her party/hard brexit simply won't get through because there are least 30 approximately of her own MPs who don't support this.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Coops

You're assessment of what May should do makes sense only if you start from the premise that this is about Brexit.

I've thought for a very long time now that it's about nothing of the sort. It's about who rules the Tory party.

May, clearly, is hanging on for as long as she possibly can and is therefore utterly incapable of doing what you are suggesting. Because the only thing at the moment that might command a Parliamentary majority is a very watered down Brexit. And that would be the end of her because it would mean open civil war in the Tory party and the end of the last vestige of control that she might have.

Meanwhile, the ERG types (and every one of the more moderate front runners to replace are ramping up the "betrayal of democracy" line about a delay. Not because they think this smooths the Brexit path. Because they are playing to the blue rinse, flat earth Tory membership for the eventual leadership challenge. They are saying, "See! I was on your side all along. It's the other bas**rds who betrayed you! So vote for me when the time comes."

Go back over the past generation and a half and that's all that the Europe debate has ever been about. Who holds sway in the f**king Tory party. And to think how many Labour working class folk have been duped into being pawns in this game...

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

If you are interested in speculating how Tuesday's vote will go there is a great spreadsheet linked here showing what the compiler thinks each individual MP's views are.

Projected result - defeat of over 200 and not yet enough support for a 2nd ref.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

The end game problem though is that if they go for a 3 month delay it solves nothing.  It's 3 months since vote 1 and nothing has changed.  Nothing is going to change so it's just delaying a problem that at the moment unless there's a change in government policy is likely to stay.

Either side could move to reach an agreement, neither side will.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

The EU has moved massively to give us the option of the backstop. Tory sources say May was ecstatic when she got that deal.

What else do you think the EU should give on?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Coops

You're assessment of what May should do makes sense only if you start from the premise that this is about Brexit.

I've thought for a very long time now that it's about nothing of the sort. It's about who rules the Tory party.

May, clearly, is hanging on for as long as she possibly can and is therefore utterly incapable of doing what you are suggesting. Because the only thing at the moment that might command a Parliamentary majority is a very watered down Brexit. And that would be the end of her because it would mean open civil war in the Tory party and the end of the last vestige of control that she might have.

Meanwhile, the ERG types (and every one of the more moderate front runners to replace are ramping up the "betrayal of democracy" line about a delay. Not because they think this smooths the Brexit path. Because they are playing to the blue rinse, flat earth Tory membership for the eventual leadership challenge. They are saying, "See! I was on your side all along. It's the other bas**rds who betrayed you! So vote for me when the time comes."

Go back over the past generation and a half and that's all that the Europe debate has ever been about. Who holds sway in the f**king Tory party. And to think how many Labour working class folk have been duped into being pawns in this game...

Looks like a highly paid pundit has finally caught up with what's going on here.
https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2294860554172010/

Christ up above, it's not bloody hard to see is it? This isn't about Brexiters and never was. It's about who leads the Tory party.

[SydneyRover]

Surprise! ''Brexit talks 'deadlocked', says Downing Street''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/11/brexit-talks-deadlocked-says-downing-street

''Brexit: Tories suspect May could pull Tuesday's key vote after talks fail to deliver progress - Politics live''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/11/brexit-latest-news-vote-tuesday-tories-suspect-may-could-pull-tuesdays-key-vote-after-talks-fail-to-deliver-progress-politics-live

[The Red Baron]

If she does pull the vote, I wonder if Corbyn will choose the moment to launch another vote of Confidence? Lots of MPs on both sides of the argument will be very angry and might vote to bring her down (and the Government).

Alternatively the Cabinet could collectively express no confidence in her (as they did with Mrs. Thatcher). Or she could face a Contempt of Parliament motion which if she lost she'd have to go.

[The Red Baron]

Talk about a shot across the bows from Nick Boles!

https://order-order.com/2019/03/11/boles-threatens-may-no-confidence-delays-meaningful-vote/

And there's more:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105058412293955584?p=v

The writers of The Thick of it couldn't have come up with something like this.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The ante is being raised by the hour.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1105074130284613633

This is final the crisis moment. Not really any more space for May to shuffle into.

[The Red Baron]

This is what the Government seems to be considering:

https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105030917846908933

I doubt it will be enough to satisfy MPs who want a Meaningful Vote this week. Smacks of more May can-kicking.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That would be entirely unacceptable TRB. She guaranteed a meaningful vote for tomorrow. If she tries to renege on that, with just 13 working days till Brexit, Parliament has to take over and sideline her.

It WILL be a constitutional crisis, but it will be entirely May's doing.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Yes a better option for her is to do it, she'll lose it but that makes no difference to her really.

Ironically it's a pointless vote isn't it.  There's not really anywhere for her to go, she doesn't want to resign but realistically she should do. She just doesn't do real.

[MachoMadness]

The ante is being raised by the hour.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1105074130284613633

This is final the crisis moment. Not really any more space for May to shuffle into.

I've been thinking that for a few months now BST. She always seems to find a way to wriggle on. I suspect it has something to do with her belief that God is guiding her.

[The Red Baron]

That would be entirely unacceptable TRB. She guaranteed a meaningful vote for tomorrow. If she tries to renege on that, with just 13 working days till Brexit, Parliament has to take over and sideline her.

It WILL be a constitutional crisis, but it will be entirely May's doing.

I agree it would be unacceptable.

[keith79]

I would still vote leave.

[wilts rover]

Channel 4 Dispatches - The Brexit Millionaires: looking at those who have made millions from the Brexit result - seems an essential watch tonight (whilst we wait to see what May has failed to get from Strasbourg).

[BillyStubbsTears]

What the f**k can you do?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-47523168

Ex-Cabinet Ministers and senior political functionaries Tweeting this bullshit.

I suggest we bring back public lashing for politicians who spread shit on Twitter and don't make grovelling apologies when the shit they post is shown to be shit.

Like Rees-Mogg last year, re-Tweeting bullshit from The Sun about how much cheaper a whole range of goods would be after we left the EU because we would have lower tariffs. Except every single example was wrong and massively over-inflated the claims. And he never once apologised for misleading people, despite a number of trade tariff academics directly messaging him to point out the error.

These are the people you are siding with Keith.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

This thread might be quiet for the next 24 hrs....

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well it's genius use of language.

It appears we now have a "legally binding" backstop deal to give us precisely the backstop that we had before.

May's having a last roll if the dice to see down the ERG. Where we go now depends on whether they really have the balls they've been threatening to swing round for the last year.

[MachoMadness]

I'm a bit confused. What's actually changed? As far as I can tell the withdrawal agreement hasn't been changed one iota. Am I mental or is that actually what's happened here?