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Quote from: River Don on July 25, 2021, 08:56:52 amI don't think BST suggests his forecasts are facts.Read the quote from billy WHEN not if we reach 100,000 cases a day by the end of July
I don't think BST suggests his forecasts are facts.
Dickos.Regarding the effect of the re-opening, I'll repeat: it takes time for results to be reported. There are currently no data AT ALL in the COVID dashboard reported for tests conducted after Thursday this week. It takes up to 5-6 days AFTER a test is conducted for that test result to be officially recorded. THAT is why the effect of the Euros could be in the data, but the effect of the re-opening cannot yet be.On the general trend, I'll say once again that the kind of sudden screeching turnround in the test numbers is the sort of thing you would only expect to see as a REAL change in the trajectory if there was a major intervention like a hard lockdown. So, with the information in front of us, I do believe we are seeing is m mainly due to an anomaly in the number of people actually going for tests.There'll be a way to assess that next week. If there really was a huge increase in the number of people testing positive, followed by a juddering stop and reduction, that should be reflected in the new hospitalisation data about 10 days later. If there is a huge surge in hospitalisations from now to Tuesday, followed by a sudden drop, I'll accept (and be delighted to accept) that I've read this totally wrongly. I assume it works for other people too. Finally, I DO get passionate about this because the costs of erring on the side of complacency are enormous. And I see people being complacent all over the place over the past week. You might remember Dickos in early March last year you were telling me I was over doing it with the negative predictions. I said then that we had the choice between half a million deaths in 3 months or the biggest change since WWII to the way we organise our lives. And you were telling me I was over doing it. Here you are now. No reflection in the past 18 months. Telling me I'm over doing it.
Finally, I DO get passionate about this because the costs of erring on the side of complacency are enormous. And I see people being complacent all over the place over the past week. You might remember Dickos in early March last year you were telling me I was over doing it with the negative predictions. I said then that we had the choice between half a million deaths in 3 months or the biggest change since WWII to the way we organise our lives. And you were telling me I was over doing it.
And if I am wrong, I will hold my hand up.What's your reaction to your approach last March?
Passports for Premier league games come October, how long before they are needed everywhere?
Another fall in cases today, 29k. 5 days in a row now.This decline started in Scotland 3 weeks ago and the fall has continued up there, let’s hope it continues here. I think the link with the schools closing could be exactly how the government called it, if we continue in the same vein as Scotland over the next few weeks it looks like the perfect timing to release restrictions and marrrying it up with the school Closures.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 25, 2021, 06:16:07 pmAnother fall in cases today, 29k. 5 days in a row now.This decline started in Scotland 3 weeks ago and the fall has continued up there, let’s hope it continues here. I think the link with the schools closing could be exactly how the government called it, if we continue in the same vein as Scotland over the next few weeks it looks like the perfect timing to release restrictions and marrrying it up with the school Closures.The fall in cases is definitely a trend now.
The drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 25, 2021, 07:08:11 pmThe drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery. Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 25, 2021, 08:05:21 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 25, 2021, 07:08:11 pmThe drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery. Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.[/b]''Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK''"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."hmmmhttps://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995
BPThe big fall in numbers is very welcome but we aren't likely to see the effects of unlocking for a day or two yet at least.I'll only feel sure we are seeing a real fall in infections if the downward trend continues well into next week.
Quote from: SydneyRover on July 25, 2021, 11:02:48 pmQuote from: dickos1 on July 25, 2021, 08:05:21 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 25, 2021, 07:08:11 pmThe drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery. Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.[/b]''Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK''"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."hmmmhttps://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995dickos:''Lots of quotes you missed out there Sydney! Wonder why you just picked that one out''probably because it was the ''dogs balls'' comment dickos, you could continue the conversation by discussing what you said and how my comment/quote has a bearing on it ..... and how your comment stands up in the light of this information .. or not of course.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 25, 2021, 08:05:21 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 25, 2021, 07:08:11 pmThe drop is due to the fact the kids are not at school isn’t it? Same as every other time they’ve been off. It’s no great mystery. Most schools in England finished Friday just gone. But if it is because of the schools then that’s exactly what the government said and why they chose this date to start relaxing the restrictions.[/b]''Coronavirus infections continue to fall in UK''"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."hmmmhttps://www.bbc.com/news/health-57962995
A 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 today
Quote from: Filo on July 26, 2021, 04:34:12 pmA 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 todayGot to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend
Quote from: dickos1 on July 26, 2021, 05:16:30 pmQuote from: Filo on July 26, 2021, 04:34:12 pmA 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 todayGot to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend I’m sure everyone is delighted at that, not sure why you made a sly dig though
Quote from: Filo on July 26, 2021, 05:41:21 pmQuote from: dickos1 on July 26, 2021, 05:16:30 pmQuote from: Filo on July 26, 2021, 04:34:12 pmA 6th consecutive day with falling infection numbers 24950 todayGot to be some turnaround now to reach the 100,000 cases per day before the weekend I’m sure everyone is delighted at that, not sure why you made a sly dig though That's a bit rich coming from you