The best ever?

[Jonathan]

I’ve often been derided for being one of the delusionally optimistic / happy clapper types but I have to be honest and say I think it’s highly unlikely that we will make the play offs or win all our remaining games. It’s great to be able to dream and we’ve got to enjoy it, I’d just hate for us to fall into a trap of feeling angry and disappointed if we don’t make it this season. I think Grant set a great target of topping the table over those remaining 18 games and we need to continue to aim for that, but not allow pressure and nerves to kick in and affect the atmosphere and our performance. We’ve already beaten last season’s points total which was my own priority, and a top half finish feels like a realistically ambitious aim from here. Anything else is an absolute bonus.

[GazLaz]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

[dickos1]

I don’t think the bookies prices mean an awful lot to us during this run, we’ve probably been 2nd favourites in almost all of the games we’ve won

[TonySoprano]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

Yes I know, according to the bookies.
But we know how our team are playing and the form we are in.  thanks for your input though

[BillyStubbsTears]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

Yes I know, according to the bookies.
But we know how our team are playing and the form we are in.  thanks for your input though

And this shows why bookies are rich.

Do you know what our percentage chance of winning each of the next 5 matches would have to be if your assertion that we have a 50/50 chance of winning those 5;was correct?

[TonySoprano]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

Yes I know, according to the bookies.
But we know how our team are playing and the form we are in.  thanks for your input though

And this shows why bookies are rich.

Do you know what our percentage chance of winning each of the next 5 matches would have to be if your assertion that we have a 50/50 chance of winning those 5;was correct?

Not sure why you keep chelping on about this, arguing one small point and ingnoring the wider discussion? Do you understand that we now have a hugely greater chance of winning the 11 in a row than we did 6 games ago ?

[BillyStubbsTears]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

Yes I know, according to the bookies.
But we know how our team are playing and the form we are in.  thanks for your input though

And this shows why bookies are rich.

Do you know what our percentage chance of winning each of the next 5 matches would have to be if your assertion that we have a 50/50 chance of winning those 5;was correct?

Not sure why you keep chelping on about this, arguing one small point and ingnoring the wider discussion? Do you understand that we now have a hugely greater chance of winning the 11 in a row than we did 6 games ago ?

Yes, I DO understand that blindingly obvious point. Thanks for asking.

Do YOU understand how far off the mark you are in saying we have a 50/50 chance of winning the next 5?

[GazLaz]

Let me tell you now. The bookmakers prices are as close to accurate as you can get to the actual probabilities of a team winning with the info available.

Can’t be arsed with a maths lesson but if you think we’re won 6 on the spin purely due to the fact we have been good and not a decent chunk of luck as well you are miles wrong. I’m not saying we haven’t been great but replay these games 10,000 times in a simulator you wouldn’t get 18 points too often.

[adamtherover]

I think the terminology might be lacking on this issue, we might very well be 50 50 with the bookies for each individual game,  like a coin flip, it's always 50 50 as it has no memory of previous flips.  But to bet on a sequence, say 10 heads in a row, then the odds are going to start doubling and trebling up etc etc... and so on...     

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think the terminology might be lacking on this issue, we might very well be 50 50 with the bookies for each individual game,  like a coin flip, it's always 50 50 as it has no memory of previous flips.  But to bet on a sequence, say 10 heads in a row, then the odds are going to start doubling and trebling up etc etc... and so on...     

The issue is the odds don't double and treble. They increase exponentially.

Assume you have a genuine 50:50 chance of winning any game (and remember,chat means the COMBINED odds of both losing and drawing are evens, so that already is assuming you are much better than your opponents).

Then the odds of winning any sequence of matches are:

1 match. Evens
2 matches. 3/1
3 matches. 7/1
4 matches. 15/1
5 matches. 31/1

So in fact, the odds more or less double every time. That means they go up by doubling, then increasing 4 fold, then 8 fold, then 16 fold, etc.

That is why it is SO difficult to predict (before the event) a very long winning run. The odds stack up massively as the number of matches increases, because the chances are you're finally going to hit a bad day, or a bad ref decision, or a worldy against you eventually.

Let's hope we stay lucky.

[scawsby steve]

We're talking about records in one season here, and the long shot hope of making the play-offs, which is still alive.

However, if we don't make the play-offs, but remain unbeaten to the end of the season, we'll be taking a tremendous amount of impetus into next season, and could still be on for some club records.

The football league record for the longest unbeaten run stretching from one season to the next is unbelievably held by Lee Clark. His Huddersfield team went from the 2010/11 season into the 2011/12 season on a run of 43 league games unbeaten.

I doubt that we'll equal that.

[Alan Southstand]

So, a new target to aim for:

1. GM’s top of the 18 game table.
2. 10 game winning sequence (DRFC post war)
3. Huddersfield’s 43 games unbeaten.

Not forgetting supporters -
Can we win our remaining games?
Can we get in the play-off’s?

To think, just before Christmas, I was very, very concerned about going into a very different league!

[drfchound]

So, a new target to aim for:

1. GM’s top of the 18 game table.
2. 10 game winning sequence (DRFC post war)
3. Huddersfield’s 43 games unbeaten.

Not forgetting supporters -
Can we win our remaining games?
Can we get in the play-off’s?

To think, just before Christmas, I was very, very concerned about going into a very different league!

That last sentence Alan, you and me both mate.

[TonySoprano]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

Yes I know, according to the bookies.
But we know how our team are playing and the form we are in.  thanks for your input though

And this shows why bookies are rich.

Do you know what our percentage chance of winning each of the next 5 matches would have to be if your assertion that we have a 50/50 chance of winning those 5;was correct?

Not sure why you keep chelping on about this, arguing one small point and ingnoring the wider discussion? Do you understand that we now have a hugely greater chance of winning the 11 in a row than we did 6 games ago ?

Yes, I DO understand that blindingly obvious point. Thanks for asking.

Do YOU understand how far off the mark you are in saying we have a 50/50 chance of winning the next 5?

Hallelujah, we finally got there!
You keep ralphing on again don't you about this 50/50 thing, which tells me you haven't actually read my posts.

But if you want to get that consolation goal in this argument, then keep quibbling over the finer details fella.

[drfcsteve]

A lot of people seem to think they know better than the bookies when actually they just have no understanding whatsoever of probability.

[Peebles Rover]

If rovers five remaining games were all even money for rovers to win, Then a five fold acca would pay £31 profit for a £1 stake.
If rovers were 5/4 in every remaining game then a five fold would return 56.67 profit for a £1 stake.

As an aside. Just looked on skybet. They are offering 33/1 for rovers to be promoted. And 12/1 for a Top 7 finish.

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

Maybe a 2-5 % chance at the start of those 11 games, but now to win our last 5 games I'd say we've got a 50% chance how we've been playing

That's the gambler's fallacy. Allowing your interests to shape your decision.

There is no way on God's earth we have a 50-50 chance of making the play-offs. 5-95 is still generous. Which is not to say it's impossible. Just very, very difficult.

I didn't say we have a 50-50 chance of reaching the play offs.
Just a 50-50 chance of winning the remaining 5 games, which to be fair I might have been getting a bit carried away when I said that.

But my point was, at the start of the 11 matches the chances of winning all 11 were monumentally slim.
I interpreted what you said was that at this point the chances were just as slim as it was at the beginning of the run, which of course our chances of winning 11 in a row are now dramatically better.

But of course I think we're all a bit guilty of confirmation bias at this stage regarding working out all the permutations.

We’ve not even got a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.

Yes I know, according to the bookies.
But we know how our team are playing and the form we are in.  thanks for your input though

And this shows why bookies are rich.

Do you know what our percentage chance of winning each of the next 5 matches would have to be if your assertion that we have a 50/50 chance of winning those 5;was correct?

Not sure why you keep chelping on about this, arguing one small point and ingnoring the wider discussion? Do you understand that we now have a hugely greater chance of winning the 11 in a row than we did 6 games ago ?

Yes, I DO understand that blindingly obvious point. Thanks for asking.

Do YOU understand how far off the mark you are in saying we have a 50/50 chance of winning the next 5?

Hallelujah, we finally got there!
You keep ralphing on again don't you about this 50/50 thing, which tells me you haven't actually read my posts.

But if you want to get that consolation goal in this argument, then keep quibbling over the finer details fella.

Boys, give it a rest.

[Campsall rover]

What a totally ridiculous argument.
Indeed as Peebles said give this a rest.

It’s arguing for arguing sake. Pointless. It not even remotely a debate which is what this forum should be.

[Avsuptem]

Erm
How can you have a 50/50 chance of winning every game ?
Are draws not allowed any more ?
Surely it's a 33% chance.
Just saying.

[GazLaz]

Erm
How can you have a 50/50 chance of winning every game ?
Are draws not allowed any more ?
Surely it's a 33% chance.
Just saying.

You either win or you don’t. Not winning includes draw or loss.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Win, lose or draw, McCann and the players will be getting applause from me at the final whistle.

[Prez]

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

What would’ve been the percentage chance of us winning our next 6 games after the Bradford game?
Playing against 3 of the top 7

The individual odds in those games were as followed... Crewe game 6/4, Swindon 9/4, Forest Green Evens, Crawley 9/4, Wrexham 3/1, Morecambe 6/4. All these odds courtesy of Betfair.

So if you had placed them in a acca you would have got odds of approx 528/1

Staggering!!

An update on the 7fold acca odds. Rovers were 13/10 to win last night so the odds now if you had backed us to win the next 7 games after the Walsall away defeat would have been 1215-1!!!

Just shows how incredible this run is.

Also as we all now know, Rovers winning 7 in a row since 1947 would suggest that it is highly unlikely that any of us will ever see Rovers do it again in our lifetime.

So savour the moment and enjoy the ride. Could even pop to Sal for a pint.

[NigelJ]

Much as I'm getting giddy, this shows how unlikely it is.

The two most astonishing turnarounds in recent years were Barnsley in L1 in 15/16 and Bristol Rovers in L2 in 21/22.

Barnsley climbed from 4th bottom to 6th over the final 24 games.

Bristol Rovers climbed from 14th to 3rd in the final 18 games.

Neither had a run of more than 4 straight wins.

For us to get 7th spot would have meant climbing from 3rd bottom to 7th over 17 games, and almost certainly would require us to have won our final 11 games. I doubt there's ever been a turnaround like that, and of course it is still very unlikely to happen. Maybe 2-5% chance.

What would’ve been the percentage chance of us winning our next 6 games after the Bradford game?
Playing against 3 of the top 7

The individual odds in those games were as followed... Crewe game 6/4, Swindon 9/4, Forest Green Evens, Crawley 9/4, Wrexham 3/1, Morecambe 6/4. All these odds courtesy of Betfair.

So if you had placed them in a acca you would have got odds of approx 528/1

Staggering!!

An update on the 7fold acca odds. Rovers were 13/10 to win last night so the odds now if you had backed us to win the next 7 games after the Walsall away defeat would have been 1215-1!!!

Just shows how incredible this run is.

Also as we all now know, Rovers winning 7 in a row since 1947 would suggest that it is highly unlikely that any of us will ever see Rovers do it again in our lifetime.

So savour the moment and enjoy the ride. Could even pop to Sal for a pint.

If we win the next seven, chances are that would mean we would be promoted!