No Brexit Extension

[ravenrover]

And who do you think will actually be paying for the increase in prices caused by these tariffs?

[BigH]

  Well Billy, if we are sending less to the EU and they will be sending more to us but paying tariffs they have not been paying before,  for the first time they will be subsidising us, paying to do business with us for a change.
  Add that to our contributions we will not have to pay and the government will be on a nice little earner without having to do much. Plus we can charge them for access in a limited way to our fishing grounds.

The problem Brian is that any potential 'saving' on the cheque/contributions to the EU has been well and truly gobbled up by the costs of the pandemic.

At a time when we need to grow our way out of an economic hole, we've just gone and told our biggest trading partner to do one.

Let's just cut to the chase. A massive protest vote has been translated by Johnson and co into a vote to make us all poorer. For some it will be cataclysmic. For others, it'll be nowt but a little dent in Daddy's trust fund.

[drfchound]

  Well Billy, if we are sending less to the EU and they will be sending more to us but paying tariffs they have not been paying before,  for the first time they will be subsidising us, paying to do business with us for a change.
  Add that to our contributions we will not have to pay and the government will be on a nice little earner without having to do much. Plus we can charge them for access in a limited way to our fishing grounds.

The problem Brian is that any potential 'saving ' on the cheque/contributions to the EU has been well and truly gobbled up by the costs of the pandemic.

At a time when we need to grow our way out of an economic hole, we've just gone and told our biggest trading partner to do one.

Let's just cut to the chase. A massive protest vote has been translated by Johnson and co into a vote to make us all poorer. For some it will be cataclysmic. For others, it'll be nowt but a little dent in Daddy's trust fund.

Much if not all of the savings will probably have been eaten up by the actual job and logistics of getting Brexit done.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There ISN'T any saving! For crying out loud, we'd already lost a decade and a half's worth of the net contribution to the EU between 2016 and the start of this year through depressed economic performance compared to the rest of the developed world.

Anyone who still thinks we come out net positive from this has been living under the covers for the past 4 years.

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Well Billy, if we are sending less to the EU and they will be sending more to us but paying tariffs they have not been paying before,  for the first time they will be subsidising us, paying to do business with us for a change.
  Add that to our contributions we will not have to pay and the government will be on a nice little earner without having to do much. Plus we can charge them for access in a limited way to our fishing grounds.

How do you work that one out seeing as we import (and will also have to start to pay tariffs on) more from the EU than we export to them!

[BillyStubbsTears]

It is difficult to put into words how appalling this is.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1337102641063735301

It is 1631 days since the Brexit vote that this chancer championed because he calculated (correctly) that it would help him get to No10.

It is 21 days until the end of the transition period. And here he is, telling British businesses[1] that NOW is the time to prepare for the biggest self-imposed shock in our economic history.

Just beyond words.

[1] Remember, this is the man who, when challenged with the fact that the Brexit he was peddling 2 and a half years ago would be bad for business, responded, "f**k business."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course, we should have known the t**t would take us out without a deal 18 months ago when he said this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1TR1IX

And still there are people who won't say a bad word about him.

[SydneyRover]

Sounds like No-Deal is becoming an 'Australian Deal'

This is what a recent PM thinks of 'our' deal or in reality Australia's No Deal

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been told to "be careful watch you wish for" as he was given a stark warning of the torments of trading with the EU on so-called Australian terms by the country's former leader Malcolm Turnbull.

Turnbull said Australia faced "very large barriers" to trading with the bloc and ending the Brexit transition period on similar terms would be "pretty disappointing".

His warning on Thursday came after the Johnson said there was a "strong possibility" the UK would fail to broker a trade deal with Brussels.

Johnson used his euphemism of exiting with an "Australian relationship", with the nation not having a free trade deal with the EU and instead trading on terms set by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Turnbull told BBC Question Time: "It'll be pretty disappointing, I think you'll find out.

"We obviously are dealing with WTO terms. And there are really some very large barriers to Australian trade with Europe which we're seeking to address as we negotiate a free trade agreement with Europe

"But Australians would not regard our trade relationship with Europe as

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7051263/turnbull-warns-on-australian-style-brexit/

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

My money remains on a deal, Boris will play the "i have saved the day" card at the last moment.

I find the level playing field intriguing.  I actually feel the point on a ratchet agreement on standards to be fair.  I think it reasonable to say if standards are changing and one party does not align that some.agreements could change.

[Glyn_Wigley]

My money remains on a deal, Boris will play the "i have saved the day" card at the last moment.

I find the level playing field intriguing.  I actually feel the point on a ratchet agreement on standards to be fair.  I think it reasonable to say if standards are changing and one party does not align that some.agreements could change.

It's simpler than that. If we want to sell it the EU we have to adhere to the product standards they set, just the same as any other territory we want to sell in anywhere in the world. Just the same as anyone who wants to sell in the UK has to adhere to UK product standards.

[ravenrover]

Johnson and co favourite song has to be The Boxer

Lie la lie
Lie la lie lie lie la lie

[ravenrover]

Think this sums it up

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

My money remains on a deal, Boris will play the "i have saved the day" card at the last moment.

I find the level playing field intriguing.  I actually feel the point on a ratchet agreement on standards to be fair.  I think it reasonable to say if standards are changing and one party does not align that some.agreements could change.

It's simpler than that. If we want to sell it the EU we have to adhere to the product standards they set, just the same as any other territory we want to sell in anywhere in the world. Just the same as anyone who wants to sell in the UK has to adhere to UK product standards.

The standard on products isn't an issue. The issues are more around the legislations that around them, eg labour costs, UK taxation, state funding etc.

[BillyStubbsTears]

When you hear a succession of Tory MPs over this weekend using the term Australia Deal, be aware of the level of utter contempt they have for your intellect.

1) Australia doesn't have a deal with the EU. "Australia Deal" means precisely "No Deal".

2) It's not massively hurtful for Australia not to have a deal with the EU, although they are slowly negotiating one. Australia's exports to the EU are just £10bn worth or about 7% of their total exports. The UK exports about £350bn of goods and services to the EU every year, or 49% of all our exports.

This bunch of shysters are preparing to massively harm our exporting businesses. And the t**ts are going to package it up as an Australia Deal.

It's up to every one of us to remember that as our economy nose dives.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile...

Selby. You were telling us four years ago that Volkswagen bosses would have a word with Merkel and she'd sort out a deal for us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1337367302291984386

[BillyStubbsTears]

As ever, Prof Simon Wren-Lewis, the esteemed economist cuts through the bullshit and gets right to the simple core of the matter.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/12/if-uk-government-fails-to-do-deal-over.html?m=1

TL:dr.

If we leave with No Deal, there WILL be tariffs on all our EU exports in three weeks.

If we sign up to the level playing field demanded by the EU, there MIGHT be tariffs in some hypothetical future, if we decide to undercut EU standards.

Look at it that way, and there are only three reasons you'd go for No Deal.

1) You are insane.
2) You deliberately want to damage the UK economy.
3) You think that playing the "I'm not giving in to Jonny Foreigner" will play better with your supporters than striking a deal.

Depressingly, I'm pretty sure that we are in 3 territory here.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ok. Maybe this is the face-saver Johnson has been looking for.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

This was always the case. The UK could always refuse to follow EU standards. It's just that there wi be consequences if we do.

But Johnson has spent the past 2 days saying it is unacceptable for us to be tied to EU standards. Which was deliberately misrepresenting the situation.

Maybe this is all for the cameras. Johnson claims we are being tied down, Von Der Leyn publicly says we are not tying you down. Johnson crows "Success! The EU has backed down!" and signs the deal.

If that is what happens, he's treating people as ever more stupid than I thought.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Ok. Maybe this is the face-saver Johnson has been looking for.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

This was always the case. The UK could always refuse to follow EU standards. It's just that there wi be consequences if we do.

But Johnson has spent the past 2 days saying it is unacceptable for us to be tied to EU standards. Which was deliberately misrepresenting the situation.

Maybe this is all for the cameras. Johnson claims we are being tied down, Von Der Leyn publicly says we are not tying you down. Johnson crows "Success! The EU has backed down!" and signs the deal.

If that is what happens, he's treating people as ever more stupid than I thought.

But a lot of people do not understand it or actually care for the details.  The story told is often actually more important than the detail in these cases.

Of course aswell it's a two way front isn't it? In many cases our standards exceed EU standards (Eg animal welfare) so there is not too much to fear. Indeed many of the rules they're afraid of being able to implement (eg state aid) are never going to be Tory policies.

I think many wanted to leave the EU and EU mechanisms, but I don't think theywanted no trade or trade with tarrifs.

Having said that, the pound is now 30% less valuable versus the euro than it was pre referendum. So even with tarrifs in many cases the comparable cost to European businesses of purchasing from the UK isn't that different (I'm aware it is more complex but it is a valid not reported point).

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.

"I think many wanted to leave the EU and EU mechanisms, but I don't think theywanted no trade or trade with tarrifs."

I think that sums up the conundrum. If there had been a bit more of a grown up approach from the UK, this was the Gordian Knot that needed cutting.

If we want tariff-free access to the SM (and remember, that would STILL result in a very big economic hit to us, compared to staying in the SM) then we have to play by the rules of the SM. There is simply no way round that. It's been increasingly tiresome to hear people on the Right complaining that the EU isn't playing fair by refusing to let us have all the benefits and none of the responsibilities.

[BillyStubbsTears]

"Having said that, the pound is now 30% less valuable versus the euro than it was pre referendum. So even with tarrifs in many cases the comparable cost to European businesses of purchasing from the UK isn't that different (I'm aware it is more complex but it is a valid not reported point)."

True up to a point although you'd have expected that to cause a boom in our exports in the past 4 years and that hasn't happened. Part of the problem is that we also have to import things to make other things to export. And imports are equally more expensive. Another part of the problem is that business investment growth has collapsed since 2016, so we are not keeping up with the productivity of countries where investment continues, meaning we are not as efficient as them.

[wilts rover]

My money remains on a deal, Boris will play the "i have saved the day" card at the last moment.

I find the level playing field intriguing.  I actually feel the point on a ratchet agreement on standards to be fair.  I think it reasonable to say if standards are changing and one party does not align that some.agreements could change.

I'm with you BFYP, this just has echoes of that 'last minute' deal with Varadker all over it. And why on earth would Johnson want to loose millions of £'s of tax revenue and create thousands of unemployed car & aircraft workers to stop French fisherman catching fish we don't eat?

But I've been wrong before...

[ravenrover]

If this is true ...........

[selby]

   Glynn, tariffs are levied by the country receiving the goods and paid by the exporter, seeing as we import more goods than we export as you constantly point out to anyone who will listen to the EU there is a large difference between what we will have to pay to the EU and what we will receive from them, which is a much larger amount more than equal to all the farm subsidies we receive from the EU according to one report I read.
  Add on the fee they will have to pay for access to fish in our waters.
  I too think there will be an agreement.

[Glyn_Wigley]

   Glynn, tariffs are levied by the country receiving the goods and paid by the exporter, seeing as we import more goods than we export as you constantly point out to anyone who will listen to the EU there is a large difference between what we will have to pay to the EU and what we will receive from them, which is a much larger amount more than equal to all the farm subsidies we receive from the EU according to one report I read.
  Add on the fee they will have to pay for access to fish in our waters.
  I too think there will be an agreement.

First half of the first sentence - Completely and utterly f**king wrong. Not worth reading anything after that so I didn't bother.

[BigH]

"Having said that, the pound is now 30% less valuable versus the euro than it was pre referendum. So even with tarrifs in many cases the comparable cost to European businesses of purchasing from the UK isn't that different (I'm aware it is more complex but it is a valid not reported point)."

True up to a point although you'd have expected that to cause a boom in our exports in the past 4 years and that hasn't happened. Part of the problem is that we also have to import things to make other things to export. And imports are equally more expensive. Another part of the problem is that business investment growth has collapsed since 2016, so we are not keeping up with the productivity of countries where investment continues, meaning we are not as efficient as them.

Yep, business investment growth has indeed collapsed in the UK since 2016. Attracting investment is ultra-competitive. People go elsewhere if they don't like what they see:

https://www.ft.com/content/c52fc1b5-3ef5-480c-8f7d-a62f943b8cf2

Or in football terms why would a player join a shitshow of a club when there's better available.

Johnson, by his actions, has proved himself to be unpatriotic. Only cares about himself. How anybody thinks he's good for the UK is utterly beyond me.

[Janso]

   Glynn, tariffs are levied by the country receiving the goods and paid by the exporter, seeing as we import more goods than we export as you constantly point out to anyone who will listen to the EU there is a large difference between what we will have to pay to the EU and what we will receive from them, which is a much larger amount more than equal to all the farm subsidies we receive from the EU according to one report I read.
  Add on the fee they will have to pay for access to fish in our waters.
  I too think there will be an agreement.

First half of the first sentence - Completely and utterly f**king wrong. Not worth reading anything after that so I didn't bother.

Yep. I've never ever had one of my shipments held up at the border because we haven't paid the duty. What a load of shite that is selby.

Please at least do your homework before you spout off - even the very quickest of searches would've told you you're talking shite. https://www.google.com/search?q=who+pays+tariffs+importer+or+exporter&rlz=1C1ONGR_en-GBGB927GB927&oq=who+pays+tarif&aqs=chrome.2.0i457j0l2j69i57j0l4.3655j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Glyn_Wigley]

   Glynn, tariffs are levied by the country receiving the goods and paid by the exporter, seeing as we import more goods than we export as you constantly point out to anyone who will listen to the EU there is a large difference between what we will have to pay to the EU and what we will receive from them, which is a much larger amount more than equal to all the farm subsidies we receive from the EU according to one report I read.
  Add on the fee they will have to pay for access to fish in our waters.
  I too think there will be an agreement.

First half of the first sentence - Completely and utterly f**king wrong. Not worth reading anything after that so I didn't bother.

Yep. I've never ever had one of my shipments held up at the border because we haven't paid the duty. What a load of shite that is selby.

Please at least do your homework before you spout off - even the very quickest of searches would've told you you're talking shite. https://www.google.com/search?q=who+pays+tariffs+importer+or+exporter&rlz=1C1ONGR_en-GBGB927GB927&oq=who+pays+tarif&aqs=chrome.2.0i457j0l2j69i57j0l4.3655j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

As this is what he thinks, it explains the amount of b*llocks he's talked about UK/EU trade from the year dot up to the prersent.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.
Tariffs are added to the price that the purchaser pays. If we impose tariffs on cars, Audi don't pay that. It goes onto the price of the car in the UK market and our Govt effectively collects it as a tax.

Over to you to put forward the next Brexit myth.

[Dutch Uncle]

Imagine 28 houses on a street. They all bought expensive irreplaceable Persian carpets and signed an agreement that if any neighbour went into one of the houses they would take their shoes off.

Then one house occupant said I don’t want carpets. I want tiles I can easily clean. The rest said OK, do what you want, but you still have to take your shoes off if you come into one of our houses.

Sounds reasonable to me.

[Bentley Bullet]

Would they be Allied Carpets?