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BFYP,Herd immunity is not possible when the virus changes form factor, as it does, unless it were to become significantly less aggressive.In a situation where re-infection is possible, the persistence of raised resilience due to a previous infection is reduced.Where seasonal peaks are part of the infection pattern, it is possible to fall victim to either the same, or a different strain of Covid, over a period of time.
Back on 21 September, Vallance and Whitty gave that press conference, where they warned of what would happen if the virus cases kept on growing exponentially with a doubling time of 7 days. Vallance said that we might end up with 50,000 new cases a day by mid Oct and 200 COVID deaths a day by mid Nov.The virus deniers, led by that odd case Prof Heneghan at Oxford (who is a Prof of Evidence Based Medicine, but who seems to totally ignore evidence that doesn't support his political agenda) have been screaming that Vallance misled us because the new cases per day were more like 20,000 in mid-Oct. So yeah, we haven't had the growth in cases that Vallance warned about. Thank God.I wonder if Heneghan and the virus deniers are going to address the other side of Vallance's warning? Over the past week, we have had an average of 200 COVID deaths per day. And the figure is still going up sharply, because the rise in deaths lags behind the rise in cases. Realistically, it looks impossible for our daily death rate to top out at much under 400-500. And then, unless the new case numbers come down, the daily deaths will stay there for the duration. That's maybe 10-15k deaths a month through the winter. On top of the 45k we've already had. And there are still folk saying this is no worse than flu...
AL.1) Where have I advocated compulsory vaccination?2) What was the last time we had a flu outbreak kill 100,000 of us in a year, despite draconian social shutdown.3) How many people do you think COVID would have killed without the shutdown? Given that, there's only one city in the world that got caught out by COVID and had an unmitigated outbreak, and there 0.6% of the entire population died in 4 weeks. Go and do the numbers and work out what that would imply for the whole or the UK. Or the USA. If you're still blasé about it then, I'll have a barrel of whatever you are supping.
Its not flu.New report shows patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 more than 5x more likely to die than patients admitted for flu:https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e3.htm?s_cid=mm6942e3_w
AL.1) Yes. Like I say, I didn't advocate compulsory vaccination. But equally, since people who don't take a vaccine remain a threat to society, they can't expect to just go about their business as usual. Just like someone who gets arseholed and drives can't expect not to have society impose some controls in them. Their choice.2) COVID will have killed 100k Brits by March. That's me putting a marker down. You can come back and check then.3) I'm talking about Bergamo, in the Italian region of Lombardia. One of the richest and most highly developed places on the globe.
ALRegarding Italy, the virus there spread at EXACTLY the same rate that it did in the UK. Deaths doubled every 3-4 days.The reason why Bergamo is such a terrifying lesson is that it is the only place in the world where they got caught unawares and didn't have any measures to stop the spread. It was the first place in Europe to be hit and by the time they realised what was happening, it had ripped through the population.The age of the population and the multi-generation households don't appear to have been significant at all. They virus spread no faster or slower there than it did in London, New York, Berlin or Copenhagen. The difference is that all the other places took steps to mitigate the spread. Bergamo didn't and it resulted in 0.6% of their population dying in a month. It resulted in their health service being totally overwhelmed. It resulted in bodies being shipped out all over Northern Italy in refrigerated wagons for incineration.That was one city, about the size of Sheffield. Factor that up to a country the size of the UK. And try to imagine us coping with maybe 400,000 people dying in a month. Just think about it. And then perhaps you'll understand why I get so f**ked off with the tests peddling conspiracy b*llocks and downplaying the seriousness of COVID.
Al as you seem to advocate HI can I ask you which age group you are in ie 20-30 30-40 etc
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on October 28, 2020, 01:34:44 pmALRegarding Italy, the virus there spread at EXACTLY the same rate that it did in the UK. Deaths doubled every 3-4 days.The reason why Bergamo is such a terrifying lesson is that it is the only place in the world where they got caught unawares and didn't have any measures to stop the spread. It was the first place in Europe to be hit and by the time they realised what was happening, it had ripped through the population.The age of the population and the multi-generation households don't appear to have been significant at all. They virus spread no faster or slower there than it did in London, New York, Berlin or Copenhagen. The difference is that all the other places took steps to mitigate the spread. Bergamo didn't and it resulted in 0.6% of their population dying in a month. It resulted in their health service being totally overwhelmed. It resulted in bodies being shipped out all over Northern Italy in refrigerated wagons for incineration.That was one city, about the size of Sheffield. Factor that up to a country the size of the UK. And try to imagine us coping with maybe 400,000 people dying in a month. Just think about it. And then perhaps you'll understand why I get so f**ked off with the tests peddling conspiracy b*llocks and downplaying the seriousness of COVID.I appreciate the points you have made and I don't for a minute doubt that it is serious, however IMO we have to keep going. Why can't the vulnerable stay at home and the rest of us carry on? I don't see why we are destroying the economy for no reason other than the government dare not admit that the first lock down was a mistake and they can't go back on it.
Quote from: Axholme Lion on October 28, 2020, 01:45:39 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on October 28, 2020, 01:34:44 pmALRegarding Italy, the virus there spread at EXACTLY the same rate that it did in the UK. Deaths doubled every 3-4 days.The reason why Bergamo is such a terrifying lesson is that it is the only place in the world where they got caught unawares and didn't have any measures to stop the spread. It was the first place in Europe to be hit and by the time they realised what was happening, it had ripped through the population.The age of the population and the multi-generation households don't appear to have been significant at all. They virus spread no faster or slower there than it did in London, New York, Berlin or Copenhagen. The difference is that all the other places took steps to mitigate the spread. Bergamo didn't and it resulted in 0.6% of their population dying in a month. It resulted in their health service being totally overwhelmed. It resulted in bodies being shipped out all over Northern Italy in refrigerated wagons for incineration.That was one city, about the size of Sheffield. Factor that up to a country the size of the UK. And try to imagine us coping with maybe 400,000 people dying in a month. Just think about it. And then perhaps you'll understand why I get so f**ked off with the tests peddling conspiracy b*llocks and downplaying the seriousness of COVID.I appreciate the points you have made and I don't for a minute doubt that it is serious, however IMO we have to keep going. Why can't the vulnerable stay at home and the rest of us carry on? I don't see why we are destroying the economy for no reason other than the government dare not admit that the first lock down was a mistake and they can't go back on it.Define "vulnerable". In Bergamo, 1 in 200 of all the people under 80 in the province died in their outbreak. 1 in 100 of all the people between 50 and 80.And if you let the virus rip, when it's at its peak and half the population is infected, how do you keep it out if care homes and hospitals? Who delivers the bread? Who mans the power stations?This "protect the vulnerable" idea sounds great. Until you spend 30 seconds thinking about how you do it in practice.
Quote from: ravenrover on October 28, 2020, 01:41:39 pmAl as you seem to advocate HI can I ask you which age group you are in ie 20-30 30-40 etc54 in December but in good health with a healthy diet etc.
It is being reported that the UK are only going to purchase enough vaccine to protect the most vulnerable, thus requiring social distancing to carry on for "many years", That is what has just been reported on LBC radio. Sky are also running a similar story.
Quote from: Axholme Lion on October 28, 2020, 02:11:55 pmQuote from: ravenrover on October 28, 2020, 01:41:39 pmAl as you seem to advocate HI can I ask you which age group you are in ie 20-30 30-40 etc54 in December but in good health with a healthy diet etc. So willing to put older family members/friends at risk?
So go on. How do you "protect the vulnerable"? How do you even DEFINE who is vulnerable? Am I, at 54 with a family history of cardiovascular problems? Is any person in their mid-50s, seeing as the infection fatality rate for people in their mid-50s is 1%? Do we tell everyone older than 50 to lock themselves away for the duration?And then the older ones who are REALLY vulnerable? Who looks after them in hospital and care homes when 35 million people in the country are all infected at the same time? How do you look after them without infecting them, even if there ARE enough people who are not suffering too badly from the symptoms?I've not seen ANYONE think through what they mean by "protect the vulnerable". It is just one of those phrases that comes out of people's mouths without passing through their brain first.
There's a connection isn't there Albie.TrumpBrexit.Climate denialCOVID denial.The supporters are all the same people. Their MO is to pump out a sophisticated stream of plausible half-truths that build into a case in some people's heads. Propaganda of the most skillful type. Because the marks don't know they have been played and they turn their anger on folks who try to point out that they have been played.And it always, always turns out to be underpinned by shady, far-right money.