Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

Project Fear?

Disconnected elites?

https://mobile.twitter.com/FrancesOGrady/status/1108726253849378816

[The Red Baron]

Isn't it the opposite Billy? She has been bluffing for 3 years that No Deal is an option. Now when her deal is set to fail it appears that the bluff wasn't a bluff but is actually what she is set on happening now.

It's in this situation that Tommy's scenario comes to pass. If her deals fails next week and nothing else has been put in place before it comes to pass, the only - the only - way that parliament can stop a no deal is to call a vote of confidence.

Yeah. I'll take that as an absolute utter last ditch tactic. Absolutely must NOT be a tactic to aim for though, unless Corbyn is 100% certain that he has the votes.

Here's a thought though. Let's assume a realistic scenario.

EU tell us tonight that we can have a short extension only if May's deal passes next week.

May's deal is defeated next Thursday.

We have a NC vote next Friday and the Govt is brought down.

How does that stop us crashing out at 11pm next Friday?

In that scenario wouldn't Corbyn have an opportunity to form a Government? He could then try to Revoke Article 50, then resign and call a General Election. Labour could pledge another Referendum.

Unlikely but these days I would rule nothing out.

[BillyStubbsTears]

In 10 hours?

I suppose it's just about possible. But it's stretching credulity to think that Tories would put Corbyn in power even for half a day. Plus, the Queen would have to be available and in agreement.

Realistically, I just don't see things happening quickly enough to allow No Deal to be stopped in those circumstances.

[wilts rover]

I can't see either the EU giving an extension with those conditions (which appears to be what they are discussing right now) or the HoC allowing her to hold the deal on Thursday with that cliff edge.

But if they did and it happens as you say - then the EU suspend article 50 until the outcome of the GE.

[wilts rover]

Brexit Outcome Probabilities:
People's Vote: 25%
General Election: 25%
No Deal: 24%
Revoke A50: 12%
Long Delay: 12%
May's Deal: 2%

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1108805864067162114

That's the will of the people TM was appealing to last night

[BillyStubbsTears]

But. Looks like the issue is being kicked a week down the road by the EU.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1108826546888937479

Just pause for a moment to take in the extent of this national humiliation.

This meeting was supposed to be finished 3 hours ago.

Our PM, the f**king Prime Minister of Great Britain and NI, has gone to the EU to tell them that her only policy is to once more try to get a vote on a deal that hasn't a prayer of being passed. Not least because of her extraordinarily misjudged on-screen nervous breakdown last night.

The EU leaders KNOW it can't pass.

So they've asked May, the f**king Prime Minister of Great Britain and NI what her contingency plan is.

And May, the f**king Prime Minister of Great Britain and NI has sat there tight-lipped and said nothing.

So the EU leaders are doing the job for us. They are giving out Parliament one more week to sort it's self out and save us from No Deal.

This week will be talked about in history books in 300 years time as as big a national humiliation as Suez. The moment when a delusional PM with over-inflated ideas of personal and national greatness, massively misjudged their hand and was slapped down by grown ups from other countries.

It is beyond heartbreaking that a combination of lying spivs and the worst PM in history have taken the country to this point.

[TommyC]

Tommy
For the record, I didn't say you were talking bullshit. In fact I didn't reply to that specific post.

Go back and have a look. My post shortly after yours was aimed at Boomstick (BS for short).

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=268078.msg829859#msg829859

That misunderstanding has brought a much-needed smile to my face, an hour after I've just come within inches of being killed by some Kitson in a Transit van overtaking a cyclist on a blind bend. I bet he voted Leave an all.

It may well be that some of the Tory MPs do choose to vote to bring down the Govt. But if Corbyn is going to go that route at the 11th hour, he'd better be damn sure he's got the votes to win that NC motion. 

My apologies BST. I did indeed think you had said I was talking bullshit! I did think it was a bit strong at the time haha!

On the point about Corbyn being irresponsible enough to call the vote of no confidence, this is the man who allegedly stormed out of a party leaders meeting last night because Chuka was present. I wouldn't put anything past him.

On the point about how bringing down the government would help stop no deal, I genuinely feel that this is going down to the absolute wire next Friday. As in the last few hours. I could see the offer of a very long extension being put forward by the EU at the very very last minute under those circumstances.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts
What's the legal mechanism for the EU to suspend A50?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy

No problem. For the record again, I would never call anything you say "bullshit" because it is always thought provoking and considered.

I responded too hastily about the NC idea. I agree it would be a final throw of the dice. But as I've said just now, I do t see how that would give a mechanism to stop No Deal.

In that scenario, with the Govt brought down next Friday evening, who would be empowered to ask the EU for a long extension before the deadline?

That's the key point as I said to Wilts. The EU cannot impose an extension. The UK Govt has to ask for one. That requires us to have a functioning Govt.

My best guess at the moment is that there's going to be a Cabinet coup next week after her deal is defeated again. The very few No Deal Cabinet supporters will be put aside and the more sane heads (relative, I know) will insist that May sees sense and calls for a long extension. If Hammond, Hunt, Rudd, Liddington etc all threatened to resign, that might finally crack her.

[Copps is Magic]

EU is seemingly going to offer a two tier extension.

[Filo]

Sounds like her Chief Whip is ready to throw the towel in

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just about to say the same Filo.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-21/has-the-prime-minister-cracked-her-chief-whip/

That's her done then.

[BillyStubbsTears]

As I was saying.

The abject humiliation of our country.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1108831069292367875?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1108831069292367875&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-parliaments-47614151

Brought to you by May, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg and Farage.

Patriots my f**king arse.

[wilts rover]

Wilts
What's the legal mechanism for the EU to suspend A50?

The ECJ made a ruling in December that Article 50 could be unilaterally revoked. The Vienna Convention allows that a unilateral change to an international treaty can be made 'where the situation has changed so drastically, that the obligations of a signatory have been radically transformed'.

So who therefore is top stop the EU Council suspending their own laws? Who would take them to the ECJ, Farage?

As I said before tho, its a pointless discussion. Why would the EU put themselves in that position? And the HoC has already ordered TM to get an extension - which she then has to bring to the HoC on Monday.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

It would be a constitutional outrage and legally out of the question for the EU to TELL the UK that we weren't leaving at 11pm on 29 March.

[wilts rover]

Still amid all this mayhem its good to know that at least some people have got things under control.

In case of no deal next week the MOD have set up a planning team in a nuclear bunker. A. Nuclear. Bunker.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-military-steps-up-preparations-in-case-of-no-deal-11671941

[BillyStubbsTears]

Once again. As I was saying. National humiliation

https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1108830556178079750&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-parliaments-47614151

[wilts rover]

Wilts

It would be a constitutional outrage and legally out if the question for the EU to TELL the UK that we weren't leaving at 11pm on 29 March.

I think you will find (when the books come out in 6 months time) that is exactly what they are discussing right now...

[Glyn_Wigley]

Isn't it the opposite Billy? She has been bluffing for 3 years that No Deal is an option. Now when her deal is set to fail it appears that the bluff wasn't a bluff but is actually what she is set on happening now.

It's in this situation that Tommy's scenario comes to pass. If her deals fails next week and nothing else has been put in place before it comes to pass, the only - the only - way that parliament can stop a no deal is to call a vote of confidence.

Yeah. I'll take that as an absolute utter last ditch tactic. Absolutely must NOT be a tactic to aim for though, unless Corbyn is 100% certain that he has the votes.

Here's a thought though. Let's assume a realistic scenario.

EU tell us tonight that we can have a short extension only if May's deal passes next week.

May's deal is defeated next Thursday.

We have a NC vote next Friday and the Govt is brought down.

How does that stop us crashing out at 11pm next Friday?

A quick call to the EU for an extra emergency extension to allow for the ensuing General Election.

[Filo]

It’s obvious to me she’s lost the plot, something needs adding to Erskine May to enable the HoC to remove a mentally unstable PM

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

A quick call from whom? Who would have the authority to make that call?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Tommy

No problem. For the record again, I would never call anything you say "bullshit" because it is always thought provoking and considered.

I responded too hastily about the NC idea. I agree it would be a final throw of the dice. But as I've said just now, I do t see how that would give a mechanism to stop No Deal.

In that scenario, with the Govt brought down next Friday evening, who would be empowered to ask the EU for a long extension before the deadline?

That's the key point as I said to Wilts. The EU cannot impose an extension. The UK Govt has to ask for one. That requires us to have a functioning Govt.

My best guess at the moment is that there's going to be a Cabinet coup next week after her deal is defeated again. The very few No Deal Cabinet supporters will be put aside and the more sane heads (relative, I know) will insist that May sees sense and calls for a long extension. If Hammond, Hunt, Rudd, Liddington etc all threatened to resign, that might finally crack her.

Even if they lose a confidence motion, the government is still the government until the election.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

Precisely. So who makes the call to Tusk and Juncker?

[BillyStubbsTears]

So the grown ups in the EU have formulated a Plan B for us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108840552722849793

BS is going to look a bit silly letting them fireworks off next Friday.

[Copps is Magic]

Once again. As I was saying. National humiliation

https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1108830556178079750&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-parliaments-47614151

Ooof. That really is a damning indictment of the take back control brigade.

[DonnyOsmond]

Strong and stable.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

Precisely. So who makes the call to Tusk and Juncker?

A Minister of the Crown can do that under the Statutory Instruments already in the EU Withdrawal Act. It's littered with them and allows one to use their discretion to make decisions (such as calling the EU) without having to refer to Parliament at all, they can just pick up the phone.

So they can do it. And if they didn't in those circumstances I'd say it'd be the biggest dereliction of duty since...the last one May was responsible for.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Any Minister? That sounds like a path to anarchy in normal times.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Once again. As I was saying. National humiliation

https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1108830556178079750&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-parliaments-47614151

Ooof. That really is a damning indictment of the take back control brigade.

What's the betting that she'll still arrive back in this country claiming she's got a triumph?

If she does I think I'll need a bucket handy for when I retch.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Any Minister? That sounds like a path to anarchy in normal times.

I think the wording is 'responsible Minister'. So I assume that could cover the Brexit Department, the Foreign Office, International Trade maybe. Possibly even the Cabinet Secretary if it's delegated to a civil servant.

Even though the Government is still the Government in between the dissolution of Parliament and the election itself, in practice the day-to-day running of departments is left to the civil servants because the Ministers are usually concentrating on the election campaign. And I doubt the civil service would countenance a major change in the nation status - or indeed allow anything controversial that can be postponed until after the vote - with an election in motion.