Possible outcomes on Saturday

[BillyStubbsTears]

Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.

If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down

5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 67 - 2 games left

Looking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).

The very BEST it could be is:

5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
7th Donny 67 - 2 games left
8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Again, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.

Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.


Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.

Worst.
5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 65 - 2 games left

Best
5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
8th Donny 65 - 2 games left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Same odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.

The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.

[colincramb]

I’m still hanging my hat on the fact we need to win all 3. I think anything less than that won’t be enough.

[StocksArmy]

I’m still hanging my hat on the fact we need to win all 3. I think anything less than that won’t be enough.

These are my thoughts. We are so close yet so far. In my head I am thinking just win the next 2 and the final day will take care of itself as everybody will know what they have to do to get the job done. Right now its all hope and speculation and I can't bloody cope!

[dickos1]

Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.

If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down

5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 67 - 2 games left

Looking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).

The very BEST it could be is:

5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
7th Donny 67 - 2 games left
8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Again, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.

Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.


Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.

Worst.
5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 65 - 2 games left

Best
5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
8th Donny 65 - 2 games left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Same odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.

The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.

Very good billy,
Interesting to look at all that.
I don’t think we’d almost be out the running though if we drew and the worst case.
We’d just have to beat Colchester, then go into Saturday only a point off

[BillyStubbsTears]

Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.

If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down

5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 67 - 2 games left

Looking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).

The very BEST it could be is:

5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
7th Donny 67 - 2 games left
8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Again, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.

Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.


Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.

Worst.
5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 65 - 2 games left

Best
5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
8th Donny 65 - 2 games left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Same odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.

The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.

Very good billy,
Interesting to look at all that.
I don’t think we’d almost be out the running though if we drew and the worst case.
We’d just have to beat Colchester, then go into Saturday only a point off

If, God forbid, we do draw on Saturday and the others all win, we'd almost certainly have to win both our last two games to have any chance. Assuming we were evens for both of those, that's a 25% outcome.

Then we'd need two of the following to occur.

1) Walsall not win their last match, or win it but we top them on GD.

2) Crawley not to win their last match.

3) Barrow not to get more than a point from their last 2 games (bearing in mind their GD).

None of those are impossible outcomes, but I'd guess the overall effect would be to leave us with maybe a realistic 5-10% chance of us making it.

That's not out of the running, but it is very close to it.

That's a purely dispassionate estimate of how hard the task would be in those circumstances.

Anyway. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[Butchers Red]

All interesting but Football plays out on grass and in the strength of hearts and minds - not calculators.

RTID

[Michael Shaw]

Exactly, Butchers. If it was just about calculators the bookies predictions would always be right. Forebet, WinDrawWin and Predictz are never 50% right even with their technology.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

[Michael Shaw]

And based on probability, BST, I would say Rovers can win the last 3 games of the season and the playoff games.

[dickos1]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Probability!
What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend.
I think probability has f**ked this season off

[philsky]

Saturday isn't a mathematical "must win" game, but in practice it's going to be very difficult for us to make 7th place if we don't win.

If we DO win this is the very worst the table could look from 5th down

5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
7th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 67 - 2 games left

Looking at the odds against Crewe, Crawley and Walsall all winning, it looks like being about 17/1 against the chances of the table looking that bad (assuming we win).

The very BEST it could be is:

5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 68 - 2 games left
7th Donny 67 - 2 games left
8th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Again, assuming we win, the odds against the table looking that good are about 14/1.

Those are the two extremes. The likelihood is it'd be somewhere in between. But the take-home is that even the very worst case scenario still leaves us in a decent position if we win. With the best case, we'd need only one more win to guarantee 7th place and looking at the fixtures, we might even make 5th.


Now look at the best and worst outcomes if we only draw.

Worst.
5th Crewe 73 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 69 - 1 game left
8th Walsall 68 - 1 game left
9th Donny 65 - 2 games left

Best
5th Crewe 70 - 1 game left
6th Barrow 69 - 2 games left
7th Crawley 66 - 1 game left
8th Donny 65 - 2 games left
9th Walsall 65 - 1 game left

Same odds on those outcomes. Take home is that if we draw, the worst case scenario is that we are almost out of the running, and even the best case still looks far from a shoo in with the issue going down to the final match.

The difference between winning and drawing on Saturday is absolutely enormous. Sing your hearts out. Anyone leaving at 5pm able to talk hasn't performed.

Very good billy,
Interesting to look at all that.
I don’t think we’d almost be out the running though if we drew and the worst case.
We’d just have to beat Colchester, then go into Saturday only a point off

If, God forbid, we do draw on Saturday and the others all win, we'd almost certainly have to win both our last two games to have any chance. Assuming we were evens for both of those, that's a 25% outcome.

Then we'd need two of the following to occur.

1) Walsall not win their last match, or win it but we top them on GD.

2) Crawley not to win their last match.

3) Barrow not to get more than a point from their last 2 games (bearing in mind their GD).

None of those are impossible outcomes, but I'd guess the overall effect would be to leave us with maybe a realistic 5-10% chance of us making it.

That's not out of the running, but it is very close to it.

That's a purely dispassionate estimate of how hard the task would be in those circumstances.

Anyway. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Fascinating and clarifies the reality for me.

Saturday absolutely has to be a win.

I didnt realise the impact of anything other than a win.

[GazLaz]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Probability!
What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend.
I think probability has f**ked this season off

We are 9th in the League and I think we were 9th/10th/11th favourites at the start of the season. Hardly a huge outlier.

[Colin C No.3]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Many people underestimate what comradeship brings to the table.

[GazLaz]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

The fact that you have won 8 games in a row, in its self, has no impact on winning the 9th. It’s an individual stand alone event. There is plenty of luck involved in football and you need a tremendous amount to win 8 in a row however well we have played. Just hope there is no catastrophic miscarriage of justice that halts this run to balance out the decent fortune we have had. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Probability!
What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend.
I think probability has f**ked this season off

The probability of us winning 8 in a row was very, very low.

But not zero.

What we have just witnessed is a once in 50 years event. Replay those 8 matches 1000 times and it's unlikely that there'd be more than another 2-3 sequences of 8 wins.

We have been in one of those very, very rare spells where pretty much everything works.

Two examples.

Adelakun wouldn't score direct from a corner again in a match if he tried it the next 50 times.

TLT isn't such a good keeper that he'd make that save against Wrexham more that once in 20. No keeper at this level is.

But we've had a spell where these sorts of things have gone right for us, often at crucial times.

There's another example from this very division and season.

Stockport won 13 games in a row earlier this season. That's one of THE most astonishing runs in the history of English football. Immediately after that, they won only 1 of the next 8 games, with essentially the same squad. They've won the division, but not with an exceptional points total. All that suggests that the run of 13 wins was that crazy rarity where everything (or at least the most important things) just go right for an improbably (but not impossibly) long time rather than being of a quality 3 divisions higher than the rest of the division.

I think we are in a similar situation now.

Don't misunderstand what I'm saying. We ARE playing some glorious football and that's a tribute to the players and management. But anyone who doesn't understand that even with that, this is a set of results that is highly, highly unusual really doesn't understand football.

Let's hope the run gets even more improbable.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

The fact that you have won 8 games in a row, in its self, has no impact on winning the 9th. It’s an individual stand alone event. There is plenty of luck involved in football and you need a tremendous amount to win 8 in a row however well we have played. Just hope there is no catastrophic miscarriage of justice that halts this run to balance out the decent fortune we have had. 

Amen to all that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Probability!
What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend.
I think probability has f**ked this season off

PS.

You're demonstrating exactly what I mean about people not understanding probability.

Just because rare things do sometimes happen, that doesn't mean probability doesn't operate.

Unusual things DO happen. Just not very often.

When they happen and they go in your favour, revel in it. It won't come along many times in your life.

[philsky]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Probability!
What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend.
I think probability has f**ked this season off

PS.

You're demonstrating exactly what I mean about people not understanding probability.

Just because rare things do sometimes happen, that doesn't mean probability doesn't operate.

Unusual things DO happen. Just not very often.

When they happen and they go in your favour, revel in it. It won't come along many times in your life.

Based on probability, before the run of 8 wins, I'm assuming forecasting 8 wins was almost zero.

What about 9 and then 10 and I guess the probability is that we'll lose one of these ?

[McCammon egg n chips]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

The fact that you have won 8 games in a row, in its self, has no impact on winning the 9th. It’s an individual stand alone event. There is plenty of luck involved in football and you need a tremendous amount to win 8 in a row however well we have played. Just hope there is no catastrophic miscarriage of justice that halts this run to balance out the decent fortune we have had.

This isn't the probability of tossing coins and getting heads or tails. The probability of a team winning another game when they are on a good run is quite obviously higher than if they are on a bad run. It impacts our players morale, level of support in the stands etc.

But most importantly when a team is on a good run it effects the other team's morale. The impact of playing against a team that's won 8 in a row will naturally play on our opponents minds.

[GazLaz]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

The fact that you have won 8 games in a row, in its self, has no impact on winning the 9th. It’s an individual stand alone event. There is plenty of luck involved in football and you need a tremendous amount to win 8 in a row however well we have played. Just hope there is no catastrophic miscarriage of justice that halts this run to balance out the decent fortune we have had.

This isn't the probability of tossing coins and getting heads or tails. The probability of a team winning another game when they are on a good run is quite obviously higher than if they are on a bad run. It impacts our players morale, level of support in the stands etc.

But most importantly when a team is on a good run it effects the other team's morale. The impact of playing against a team that's won 8 in a row will naturally play on our opponents minds.

Teams morale is obviously factored in to things, by this point that is fully reflected in any performance outcome though isn’t it? Has it improved a tangible amount between win 6 and win 7 or win 7 and win 8? Probably not. Based on every bit of info we have available we have somewhere between a 45 and 55% chance of winning on Saturday (very loosely) and the thinking behind that won’t change based on outcome.

[steve@dcfd]

My best case scenario for Saturday is
Win for Wrexham away at Crewe
Win for Sutton at home to Crawley
Win for Bradford awayat Walsall
Win for Doncaster at home to Barrow
Then
 5th Crewe.  70pts with 1 game left
 6th.Barrow. 68pts with 2 games left
 7th Doncaster 67 pts with 2 games left
 8th Crawley.   66 pts with 1 game left
 9th Walsall.    65 pts. with 1 game left

Then a win on Tuesday against Colchester means last game is irrelevant.
Probability of us winning 10 on the trot is unlikely and for the results to go for us as above is unlikely but not impossible

[BillyStubbsTears]

Individual events are impossible to predict.

The probability of groups of events occuring are relatively easy to predict.

But many people don't understand what probability is.

Probability!
What was the probability of us winning 8 in a row, what was the probability of us starting the season with 2 points from 7 games, what was the probability of each of our rivals losing last weekend.
I think probability has f**ked this season off

PS.

You're demonstrating exactly what I mean about people not understanding probability.

Just because rare things do sometimes happen, that doesn't mean probability doesn't operate.

Unusual things DO happen. Just not very often.

When they happen and they go in your favour, revel in it. It won't come along many times in your life.

Based on probability, before the run of 8 wins, I'm assuming forecasting 8 wins was almost zero.

What about 9 and then 10 and I guess the probability is that we'll lose one of these ?

If you assume we were 1/2 on for every match (I'm not talking about bookies' odds, I mean that we had a real 2/3rds chance of winning each match) then the chance of winning 8 on the bounce is under 4%. More realistically, even a 40% chance of winning each match would be optimistic, and then the chances of 8 on the bounce are 0.065%.

In other words, even assuming our real chances of winning each match were better than they probably were, you'd expect us to win 8 on the bounce once in 1525 times.

There are 39 runs of 8 games each season.

Games 1-8
Games 2-9
Games 3-10
.
.
Games 38-45
Games 39-46

1525 is roughly 40*39.

So you'd expect a run something like this to occur about once every 40 years.

In the 77 years since 46/47, we've had this run, and the run of 7 wins in 2003.

Broadly, the probability works out.

None of that is to say that we won't have another run like this next season. But on average, they only come along a couple of times a lifetime.

Here's the funny thing though.

As Gaz says, none of that affects the next three games. We'll have roughly a 50% chance of winning each one, so roughly a 7/1 chance of winning all of them.

[acacia94]

Fantastic and fascinating stuff Bill. Beautifully filling the void and deflecting the tensions building before 3pm Saturday. Cheers

[Guernsey Exile]

My best case scenario for Saturday is
Win for Wrexham away at Crewe
Win for Sutton at home to Crawley
Win for Bradford awayat Walsall
Win for Doncaster at home to Barrow
Then
 5th Crewe.  70pts with 1 game left
 6th.Barrow. 68pts with 2 games left
 7th Doncaster 67 pts with 2 games left
 8th Crawley.   66 pts with 1 game left
 9th Walsall.    65 pts. with 1 game left

Then a win on Tuesday against Colchester means last game is irrelevant.
Probability of us winning 10 on the trot is unlikely and for the results to go for us as above is unlikely but not impossible

32/1....Worth a £5

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fantastic and fascinating stuff Bill. Beautifully filling the void and deflecting the tensions building before 3pm Saturday. Cheers

That's why I'm doing it. To stop my arse quaking.

[pib]

Slowest f*cking week ever. It's doing my head in!

[acacia94]

Ha! Well if smashing the numbers on this BST prevents you stressing the NHS with that quaking-arse-play-off-syndrome its worth it lad.

[streathamdave]

TLT isn't such a good keeper that he'd make that save against Wrexham more that once in 20. No keeper at this level is.

Maybe he is. He is young and hasn't had chance to really prove himself. Can't even use how he played at Stevenage as a bench mark as so few games, the coaching he has had since both at Hull and Rovers. Also, he made an almost identical save to the Wrexham one the following match. On the balance of probability you may well be right, but what if these are the early steps of a future long term French international keeper.  The possibilities are somewhere on that continuum. One game at a time and let's see where it takes us. All the club (and even we the fans) can do is control the controlables. The team have been controlling what they can control the controllables. What we as fans can control is offering as much support as we can both online and in real life. It seems to me we have done exactly that.  Certain games it has felt like the fans were very much the 12th man, encouraging, being vocal, willing them on. I'm sure the players have felt it and long may the positivity in the club continue. I honestly believe we can do this although we will be put through the wringer I suspect. Also, reaching the playoffs is only the first step. Get behind the lads however you can. That will be different for each of us, but that is where we are at. Come on Donny!

[ChrisBx]

TLT isn't such a good keeper that he'd make that save against Wrexham more that once in 20. No keeper at this level is.

Maybe he is. He is young and hasn't had chance to really prove himself. Can't even use how he played at Stevenage as a bench mark as so few games, the coaching he has had since both at Hull and Rovers. Also, he made an almost identical save to the Wrexham one the following match. On the balance of probability you may well be right, but what if these are the early steps of a future long term French international keeper.  The possibilities are somewhere on that continuum. One game at a time and let's see where it takes us. All the club (and even we the fans) can do is control the controlables. The team have been controlling what they can control the controllables. What we as fans can control is offering as much support as we can both online and in real life. It seems to me we have done exactly that.  Certain games it has felt like the fans were very much the 12th man, encouraging, being vocal, willing them on. I'm sure the players have felt it and long may the positivity in the club continue. I honestly believe we can do this although we will be put through the wringer I suspect. Also, reaching the playoffs is only the first step. Get behind the lads however you can. That will be different for each of us, but that is where we are at. Come on Donny!

I think the point is that even brilliant, top tier goalkeepers wouldn't save that attempt at goal 100% of the time.

[scawsby steve]

What are the probabilities of me pulling Cameron Diaz?

The reason I'm asking is that I've always thought I might have a chance there.