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There's no way we can or should reopen the wounds on this at this moment.We WILL end up back in the SM and CU. Maybe back in the EU. But that will only be feasible when enough people in this country realise what damage they have done to our economic prospects by Brexit.And of course the following should go without saying but, y'know.I would be delighted for Labour to be able to make a success of Brexit and restore our prosperity in a way that made rejoining European institutions unnecessary. But I'm a realist. They won't because it ain't possible.
Back to Brexit. According to the OECD - since the vote per capita income in the UK has fallen 4% compared with the EU where it has risen by 15%. The UK is getting poorer compared with the EU:https://twitter.com/JohnRow64286327/status/1541307479602118656/photo/1
Labour had been put in a bind by Brexit, that's for sure. And it will take more political genius than they, or anyone has to square this circle.1) They have to throw out the option of rejoining the EU at the next election. Not because it's wrong economically. Because it's prudent politically. (and Branton, saying that they should have had this take in 19 ignores the thing that people on the Left who support Brexit always ignore - what would have happened to the great mass of Labour supporters who didn't want Brexit. You always harp on about the support Labour lost by the Ref2 policy. But you ignore the support they would have lost without the Ref2 policy. Even though the polling evidence was smacking Labour in the face in Spring 19 when Corbyn finally fully embraced Brexit. The difference now of course is that Brexit has happened. So the political landscape is totally different. Any party that tries to churn up that ground again so soon would be pilloried.)2) But no matter what we do, our economic performance will struggle through to the end of this decade at least. Because of Brexit. So, if Labour win in 24, they will be blamed for the limp performance through to 29.Very tough one to deal with.In the very long term, it might actually be better for both Labour and the country if the Tories win a majority in 24. Let them own the long term economic consequences of Brexit. And set the scene for a rejoin referendum by popular demand sometime in the early 30s.
Branton As well argued as ever...Still. At least you've stopped banging on about how the 2016 vote made it inevitable that the UK had to leave the SM and CU.
Quote from: wilts rover on July 04, 2022, 12:53:18 pm(a) I think he is trying to appeal to people who are never going to vote for him - (b) but I guess its up to the people who he is trying to appeal to comment on that.(a) I disagree this is a response to Labour's underwhelming performance in 'red wall' areas in the local elections, the Wakefield by-election not seeing as big a swing as the Lib Dems got in Tiverton and Labour's inability to gain clear ground in the polls. All despite the huge unpopularity of the PM following partygate.I.e. it's an attempt to win back support from former Labour voters who voted for Brexit esp those in marginal red wall seats. So people like me.
(a) I think he is trying to appeal to people who are never going to vote for him - (b) but I guess its up to the people who he is trying to appeal to comment on that.
Bigger things going on atm but I thought this was interesting.More people support Starmer's Brexit policy than don't. And more Tory voters than Labour voters support it:https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544325156079865856
Branton.I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that I was being desperate and illogical.I've simply pointed out that the Brexit vote asked whether the UK should leave the EU and you said that meant by definition leaving the SM. But the UK didn't leave the SM. GB did. And the vote never asked if GB should leave the EU or SM, but not the UK.How on earth is it illogical to point out an objective fact?
All you Brexiters who were so chuffed when Johnson Got Brexit Done.Grab your popcorn. Mordaunt is going to Get Brexit Re-done.https://mobile.twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1548593906257989633
NR.I agree that every incoming PM faces serious problems. That's inevitable. I don't agree that each one necessarily inherits a poisoned chalice.Thatcher and Blair both came to power at a time that the other party had run out of steam and descended into internal fighting for the best part of a decade. And in both cases, the background political environment had moved towards them.Cameron didn't inherit a poisoned chalice. He made his own by insisting on Austerity which led to the rise of UKIP, and forced him into the Brexit vote.Even Wilson had a decent inheritance in that the Tories were old and tired and new ideas were needed. He didn't make a fantastic job of it, but that wasn't inevitable.Callaghan, Major, Brown and May were always going to struggle, given how economics and politics were moving. But it's not always the way.I suspect if Labour do win in 24 (and I'd put that at 50/50) they are going to cop the blame for Brexit not working. Whereas if the Tories win, they'll have no excuse when the inevitable problems become undeniable. They can blame COVID and Ukraine and inflation for a few years. But not for 10 or 15.
I see many of those who wanted a hard border with France are now complaining and angry that we've got a hard border with France.