Looking grim for Labour

[wilts rover]

Like I say, I use polls from all the polling companies in an effort to offer a balanced perspective. I'm sure Yougov will be back on track soon. They are going to be polling every day right up to the general election. Let's see what future polls show before anyone starts crowing.   

Do you? That seems an awfull lot of work, perhaps you should you use one of those comparison sites who do all that for you, something like:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
or http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

which will save you a massive amount of time. Betterware doesn't sell itself you know.....

[GazLaz]

Gaz.

Genuine question. What makes you think that?

I think the SNP rise will do for labour. It will hit them hard. It won't be a blue landslide but they'll win.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz

But as the polls currently stand (the average poll figures) even taking an SNP landslide in Scotland into account (IF that happens) Labour would be the largest party in England by 20-30 seats.

If the Tories are going to be the largest party, nevermind be in a position to put a coalition together, they need to change the polls by ~ 3-4% damn quickly. They need Labour to drop from 34% to 30% or they themselves to rise from 32% to 36%. At present, with the campaign well underway, there's no sign whatsoever of that change coming. Two weeks ago there was a tiny move towards the Tories, but that reversed last week and we're back as you were. And the result of the "debate" that Cameron refused to have seems (looking at today's YouGov poll) to have been a quite stunning success for Miliband. I didn't watch it because I'd rather stick tin tacks in my scrotum than watch Paxman w**king off about how clever he is, but the Times figures have Miliband am seen as trouncing Cameron.
Which leader came across best?
EM 49
DC 34

Which leader have the more honest answers
EM 48
DC 29.

This is crucial because the Tories have been putting a great deal of emphasis on the belief that people won't see Miliband as a serious alternative. But it looks like people thought Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron on Thursday night. That's a potential game-changer, and it MIGHT explain why Labour had their biggest poll lead in weeks this morning.

Fascinating week coming up. If that 4% Lab lead this morning turns out to be genuine and not just normal variation, the game's turned on its head.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ha!
New ComRes poll has Con 36, Lab 32. Exact opposite of this morning's You Gov.

Anyone's guess what the real position is. Both if those are compatible with it being 34-34 or 35-33 either way.

[IC1967]

Look. It's very simple. The Yougov poll that you lefties were getting so excited about was a rouge poll like I said. Yougov have had the Tories consistently ahead recently.

The bookies aren't daft. They were way behind me but have recently seen sense. They've got the Tories 2 to 1 on to be the biggest party the last time I checked. They are on the right lines. Mark my words the Tories will win an overall majority.

Us UKippers aren't daft. We'll support the Tories where they've got the best chance of winning a seat and do our best to damage Labour wherever possible. This will mean we will lose some of our support back to the Tories but will further damage Labour.

I can't understand why I am the only one that can accurately predict the outcome of the election.

As for the debate that Milliband won. Did he hellers like. He came across very badly. He wouldn't answer questions. Paxo had to keep pulling him up on not answering his questions and always asking himself a question. What a lying, insincere plank.

What you lefties have to understand is that it's not what the polls show now, it's the direction of travel. It's going one way. The Tories are gaining support and Labour are losing it.

Get in.

[The Red Baron]

Ha!
New ComRes poll has Con 36, Lab 32. Exact opposite of this morning's You Gov.

Anyone's guess what the real position is. Both if those are compatible with it being 34-34 or 35-33 either way.

I didn't see the TV thing either, but I think one reason Miliband came over better was because he was questioned on things he would do while Cameron was forced to defend his record as PM.

If that was the case then I have no sympathy for Cameron. In a head to head both men would have to answer the same questions. The crumb of comfort for him is that it is likely to be forgotten in 6 weeks time.

As I said above, the real game changer here would be if either main party could make significant inroads with those currently minded to vote UKIP or SNP.

[IC1967]

It's been happening for a while now. Us Ukippers are using our heads not our hearts. As the election comes closer we are now going back to the Tories in droves as we know that is the only way to get a referendum on the EU.

If there was proportional representation then we'd  all vote UKIP. Unfortunately we have a first past the post system that is grossly unfair to us. So we are going to vote tactically. We'll damage Labour as much as we possibly can. We don't care who we vote for as long as our vote is used to inflict maximum damage on Labour.

The Tory voters are not daft either. In places like Doncaster they would also prefer to vote Tory. However they know there is no chance of winning so they will vote UKIP as this is the best way of damaging Labour.

I'm surprised I'm the only one able to work it all out. Labour are going to get squeezed on all sides. This means they have absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning the election.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I'm not sure what anyone can do to make inroads into the SNP support. It seems impervious to the usual laws of logic.

Salmond has called EVERY big economic decision catastrophically wrong over the past decade.

He wanted Scotland in the Euro
He wanted Scotland to follow the economic example of Ireland and Iceland.
He said Scotland could share the Pound and have fiscal independence.
He built post-independence finances on the assumption that oil would not drop below $110/barrel.

Every call was appalling. That would be terminal for a normal party. But every time Salmond gets it wrong, the SNP support goes up. It's like the Scots are blaming the main parties for the laws of logic. They are voting for what they would like the world to be like in fantasy.

I've said before, a nasty, vindictive side of me wishes the bas**rds had voted for independence. Salmond would have been lynched by now as the Scots realised the catastrophe they'd been led into. But the Scots had the good sense not to do that. And now they can indulge themselves, voting for a party that is divorced from economic reality. Trying to convince them not to vote SNP is like trying to convince our resident idiot here to use logic when he argues. Utterly pointless.

[IC1967]

TRB

I'm not sure what anyone can do to make inroads into the SNP support. It seems impervious to the usual laws of logic.

Salmond has called EVERY big economic decision catastrophically wrong over the past decade.

He wanted Scotland in the Euro
He wanted Scotland to follow the economic example of Ireland and Iceland.
He said Scotland could share the Pound and have fiscal independence.
He built post-independence finances on the assumption that oil would not drop below $110/barrel.

Every call was appalling. That would be terminal for a normal party. But every time Salmond gets it wrong, the SNP support goes up. It's like the Scots are blaming the main parties for the laws of logic. They are voting for what they would like the world to be like in fantasy.

I've said before, a nasty, vindictive side of me wishes the b*****ds had voted for independence. Salmond would have been lynched by now as the Scots realised the catastrophe they'd been led into. But the Scots had the good sense not to do that. And now they can indulge themselves, voting for a party that is divorced from economic reality. Trying to convince them not to vote SNP is like trying to convince our resident idiot here to use logic when he argues. Utterly pointless.

Look. The Scotch aren't  stupid. They know they can have their cake and eat it. If only the stupid idiots that wanted them to refrain from voting for independence had let them go their own way we'd all be better off. But no. Labour knew they'd be finished as a political party if they couldn't rely on on lots of Scotch MPs. Well, the silly sods got the independence result they wanted but in doing so have finished themselves off as a political force in Scotland.

Mind boggling incompetence of the highest order.

[GazLaz]

Polls are a guide but don't represent the way our voting system works. I think it's possible that LAB get more votes and less seats. If you think its that close you can bet 7/4 that LAB get most seats.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I actually think there's more chance of the opposite, Tories to get move votes and less seats.  They usually get less seats per vote so to speak than Labour.

Our electon system is a funny one, these are the stats for the last few elections, obviously the minor parties play a part and the more LD/UKIP/SNP/Greens etc pick up, the more this changes.

Somewht interesting though that Labour got massively more seats in 2005 than Tories in 2010 despite a lower amount of vote share.  Just shows that the vote share is largely flawed as a diagnostic tool.  IE places like Doncaster for Labour will be way above what their national average is.

God knows what the right system would be, is there even one anywhere in the world that's fair?

      1992   1997   2001   2005   2010
Labour   Seats %   41.6%   63.4%   62.7%   62.4%   39.7%
   Votes %   34.4%   43.2%   40.7%   35.2%   29.0%
                  
Tories   Seats %   51.6%   25.0%   25.2%   25.5%   47.1%
   Votes %   41.9%   30.7%   31.7%   32.4%   36.1%

[wing commander]

  whatever party you support,the whole system needs reform..I find it unacceptable that the SNP could hold the key to the balance of power for our country..There Mp's can vote on how our country is run and we don't get a say in how many paperclips there parliment buys..Sadly because of the first past the post system benefiting certain party's over others I cant see that happening soon...
  I was talking to our Conservative mp last week and he concentrates on local issues rather that national ones as he his so dissalusioned with how political partys in Westminster works regardless of who they are...

[IC1967]

Look. It's very simple. The Tories will get the most seats. No question. Most people think they won't get an overall majority. They will.

So no need to worry about the SNP wielding power. The worst that will happen is the Tories will have some kind of 'coalition' agreement with the LibDems again.

So relax everybody. Labour will not be in a position to destroy the economy and increase unemployment yet again.

Sorted.

[GazLaz]

I'm not sure the Tories will get a majority. The Lib Dems have said they won't rejoin the Tories haven't they over the Euro referendum?

[IC1967]

I'm not sure the Tories will get a majority. The Lib Dems have said they won't rejoin the Tories haven't they over the Euro referendum?

It won't be the same arrangement as last time but it will enable us to have stable government. That's worst case scenario.

Get your money on a Tory overall majority. Best odds available are 6/1. It will be like printing money.

If you are daft enough to think there will be a Labour overall majority you can get 17/1. in fact I'd be prepared to offer 100/1 on that outcome.

Get in.

[wilts rover]

Look. It's very simple. The Tories will get the most seats. No question. Most people think they won't get an overall majority. They will.

So no need to worry about the SNP wielding power. The worst that will happen is the Tories will have some kind of 'coalition' agreement with the LibDems again.

So relax everybody. Labour will not be in a position to destroy the economy and increase unemployment yet again.

Sorted.

What Lib Dems?

[The Red Baron]

Look. It's very simple. The Tories will get the most seats. No question. Most people think they won't get an overall majority. They will.

So no need to worry about the SNP wielding power. The worst that will happen is the Tories will have some kind of 'coalition' agreement with the LibDems again.

So relax everybody. Labour will not be in a position to destroy the economy and increase unemployment yet again.

Sorted.

What Lib Dems?

Even with their dramatically reduced share of the vote I'll be surprised if the Lib Dems don't have between 20-30 MPs. What you might call "The Eastleigh Effect" where they poll considerably better in seats they hold than those they don't. In contrast, even if they poll at around 12-13% UKIP will be lucky if they have 5 MPs.

[IC1967]

I'm expecting LibDems to get 30 and UKIP 10. I reckon the UKIP vote is massively underestimated in Labour seats because many Ukippers keep their political allegiance quiet because of all the disgust people tend to show when they find out you're a Ukipper. It's usually the leftie lot that try their best to make Ukippers feel like they are racist bigots and are the scum of the earth.

Well it's going to backfire on them. Its just a shame there aren't more people around like me that are not afraid to state their allegiance. in the privacy of the ballot box no-one knows how you've voted. Watch out Labour, we're coming to get you.

[Glyn_Wigley]

  whatever party you support,the whole system needs reform..I find it unacceptable that the SNP could hold the key to the balance of power for our country..There Mp's can vote on how our country is run and we don't get a say in how many paperclips there parliment buys..Sadly because of the first past the post system benefiting certain party's over others I cant see that happening soon...
  I was talking to our Conservative mp last week and he concentrates on local issues rather that national ones as he his so dissalusioned with how political partys in Westminster works regardless of who they are...

Has it been unacceptable that the Libdems have had that key for the past five years..?

[The Red Baron]

Love them or hate them, the Lib Dems fight seats throughout Britain. I have far less of a problem about them holding the balance of power than I do with parties who only fight in one part of the UK.

And yes, I am also thinking about the possibility of the DUP holding the balance of power.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not sure what you mean about them holding the balance of power.

Both Lab and the SNP have made it clear that there will be no coalition between them.

The SNP's strongest position is that they have said they will vote against a Con Government in a confidence vote. That seems perfectly fair to me. After all, the Govt's biggest issues are economic and foreign policy and neither of these are devolved to Scotland. So, if a Govt were formed that had major policy stances on non-devolved issues that went against what 70% of the Scottish electorate had voted for (Lab & SNP combined) I see no problem in Scottish MPs voting the Govt down.

Doesn't change my opinion that the SNP are a bunch of lying shites peddling fantasies to the gullible.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm expecting LibDems to get 30 and UKIP 10. I reckon the UKIP vote is massively underestimated in Labour seats because many Ukippers keep their political allegiance quiet because of all the disgust people tend to show when they find out you're a Ukipper. It's usually the leftie lot that try their best to make Ukippers feel like they are racist bigots and are the scum of the earth.

Well it's going to backfire on them. Its just a shame there aren't more people around like me that are not afraid to state their allegiance. in the privacy of the ballot box no-one knows how you've voted. Watch out Labour, we're coming to get you.

Just memorialising this post for posterity.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

That one was worth a laugh.

It's the lefties who make Ukippers feel like bigots eh? Not the prospective candidates who call foreigners "Ting Tongs" or talk about "Bongo Bongo Land".
Sweet.

[IC1967]

Glyn

That one was worth a laugh.

It's the lefties who make Ukippers feel like bigots eh? Not the prospective candidates who call foreigners "Ting Tongs" or talk about "Bongo Bongo Land".
Sweet.

You can talk. I bet anyone that intends to vote UKIP that you know would most definitely keep that information from you. You are the most condescending person on this forum to anyone that lets it be known they support UKIP (maybe there is also one other person that's as bad as you, he knows who he is.)

We'll have the last laugh. Just be grateful I let you off with that bet on who would be the largest party when Labour were miles ahead in the polls. Not so cocky now are you?

[IC1967]

You couldn't make it up. One of Labour's key election pledges is that they will control immigration. Really? I didn't know they were planning to leave the EU. What a load of old cock. The furore over their daft mug shows their true colours. They don't want to control immigration. They must think we're all stupid.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/29/diane-abbott-labour-immigration-controls-mugs-shameful

[IC1967]

Gaz

But as the polls currently stand (the average poll figures) even taking an SNP landslide in Scotland into account (IF that happens) Labour would be the largest party in England by 20-30 seats.

If the Tories are going to be the largest party, nevermind be in a position to put a coalition together, they need to change the polls by ~ 3-4% damn quickly. They need Labour to drop from 34% to 30% or they themselves to rise from 32% to 36%. At present, with the campaign well underway, there's no sign whatsoever of that change coming. Two weeks ago there was a tiny move towards the Tories, but that reversed last week and we're back as you were. And the result of the "debate" that Cameron refused to have seems (looking at today's YouGov poll) to have been a quite stunning success for Miliband. I didn't watch it because I'd rather stick tin tacks in my scrotum than watch Paxman w**king off about how clever he is, but the Times figures have Miliband am seen as trouncing Cameron.
Which leader came across best?
EM 49
DC 34

Which leader have the more honest answers
EM 48
DC 29.

This is crucial because the Tories have been putting a great deal of emphasis on the belief that people won't see Miliband as a serious alternative. But it looks like people thought Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron on Thursday night. That's a potential game-changer, and it MIGHT explain why Labour had their biggest poll lead in weeks this morning.

Fascinating week coming up. If that 4% Lab lead this morning turns out to be genuine and not just normal variation, the game's turned on its head.

Hahaha. You were getting far to excited over a rouge poll. Latest Yougov poll has them neck and neck at 35% each. Populus have them neck and neck at 34% each (they normally show a Labour lead). Lord Ashcroft (the most reliable poll IMHO) have the Tories on 36% and Labour only on 34%.

The direction of travel is plain to see. The Tories are going to win an overall majority.

Get in.

[The Red Baron]

By "Balance of Power" I don't mean "Coalition." It is inconceivable that the SNP would enter a coalition that would entail them taking up positions in a UK Government. That would go against all they stand for.

Similarly it is hardly likely that the DUP would join a coalition. What both parties would want to do would be to wring concessions beneficial to them out of the minority government. Once they have banked those concessions they may even be unwilling to further support the minority government.

The Lib Dems are maybe the only "minor" party who would be willing to consider a formal coalition. But of course they've had their fingers burned in the current one and they will be very wary of forming another one.

[Colin C No.3]

Gaz

But as the polls currently stand (the average poll figures) even taking an SNP landslide in Scotland into account (IF that happens) Labour would be the largest party in England by 20-30 seats.

If the Tories are going to be the largest party, nevermind be in a position to put a coalition together, they need to change the polls by ~ 3-4% damn quickly. They need Labour to drop from 34% to 30% or they themselves to rise from 32% to 36%. At present, with the campaign well underway, there's no sign whatsoever of that change coming. Two weeks ago there was a tiny move towards the Tories, but that reversed last week and we're back as you were. And the result of the "debate" that Cameron refused to have seems (looking at today's YouGov poll) to have been a quite stunning success for Miliband. I didn't watch it because I'd rather stick tin tacks in my scrotum than watch Paxman w**king off about how clever he is, but the Times figures have Miliband am seen as trouncing Cameron.
Which leader came across best?
EM 49
DC 34

Which leader have the more honest answers
EM 48
DC 29.

This is crucial because the Tories have been putting a great deal of emphasis on the belief that people won't see Miliband as a serious alternative. But it looks like people thought Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron on Thursday night. That's a potential game-changer, and it MIGHT explain why Labour had their biggest poll lead in weeks this morning.

Fascinating week coming up. If that 4% Lab lead this morning turns out to be genuine and not just normal variation, the game's turned on its head.

Hahaha. You were getting far to excited over a rouge poll. Latest Yougov poll has them neck and neck at 35% each. Populus have them neck and neck at 34% each (they normally show a Labour lead). Lord Ashcroft (the most reliable poll IMHO) have the Tories on 36% and Labour only on 34%.

The direction of travel is plain to see. The Tories are going to win an overall majority.

Get in.

Hey ICI, did you hear the England fans last night chanting to the Italians "Where were you in World War 2?" Heartening to hear the Right Wing is alive & kicking, bless 'em.

[IC1967]

Gaz

But as the polls currently stand (the average poll figures) even taking an SNP landslide in Scotland into account (IF that happens) Labour would be the largest party in England by 20-30 seats.

If the Tories are going to be the largest party, nevermind be in a position to put a coalition together, they need to change the polls by ~ 3-4% damn quickly. They need Labour to drop from 34% to 30% or they themselves to rise from 32% to 36%. At present, with the campaign well underway, there's no sign whatsoever of that change coming. Two weeks ago there was a tiny move towards the Tories, but that reversed last week and we're back as you were. And the result of the "debate" that Cameron refused to have seems (looking at today's YouGov poll) to have been a quite stunning success for Miliband. I didn't watch it because I'd rather stick tin tacks in my scrotum than watch Paxman w**king off about how clever he is, but the Times figures have Miliband am seen as trouncing Cameron.
Which leader came across best?
EM 49
DC 34

Which leader have the more honest answers
EM 48
DC 29.

This is crucial because the Tories have been putting a great deal of emphasis on the belief that people won't see Miliband as a serious alternative. But it looks like people thought Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron on Thursday night. That's a potential game-changer, and it MIGHT explain why Labour had their biggest poll lead in weeks this morning.

Fascinating week coming up. If that 4% Lab lead this morning turns out to be genuine and not just normal variation, the game's turned on its head.

Hahaha. You were getting far to excited over a rouge poll. Latest Yougov poll has them neck and neck at 35% each. Populus have them neck and neck at 34% each (they normally show a Labour lead). Lord Ashcroft (the most reliable poll IMHO) have the Tories on 36% and Labour only on 34%.

The direction of travel is plain to see. The Tories are going to win an overall majority.

Get in.

Hey ICI, did you hear the England fans last night chanting to the Italians "Where were you in World War 2?" Heartening to hear the Right Wing is alive & kicking, bless 'em.

I didn't hear it but can assure you that the bulk of the fans chanting would have been lefties. it is incontrovertible fact that more lefties than righties go to football matches especially away internationals.

Us righties on the whole prefer a man's game such as rugby union.

[Colin C No.3]

Yeah....& us 'Righties' ought to see about banning all showing's of Jesse Owens medal winning events once we grasp power. I'm so with you ICI.