Looking grim for Labour

[The Red Baron]

TRB

There was a fair bit of evidence of Shy Noes in the Indy Ref polls. And a fair few claims of intimidation by Yes supporters which is a worry.

There was a poll a few days ago that asked the question "Do you consider the criticism of the party you support to be a personal criticism?" For most parties, there were around 10-20% who answered "yes" which is worrying enough. But for SNP supporters, the figure was over 50%.

That is truly scary. It suggests that rational debate is going out of the window in Scotland. Which might explain why, the more the SNP's economic plans are criticised as somewhere between fantasy and extremely dangerous, the more popular they become.

There's also the phenomenon of the Cyber-Nats, who are very quick to heap abuse on anyone who casts doubt on the SNPs aims and policies.

I get the feeling that quite a few of them would have felt at home in 1930s Germany.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Aye. It's not a healthy situation.

I heard one of them saying today that Scotland's position at the moment is similar to Ireland's in the early 1900s. He was meaning that there is a momentum towards independence. But I'm not sure he realised the sub-text to what he was saying. At least I HOPE he didn't. 

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Do we really want this bunch of clowns in charge?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/watch-the-horribly-awkward-moment-this-labour-candidate-forgets-her-partys-policies-10177591.html

[IC1967]

Just watched the UKIP manifesto launch. What an excellent document. If only the other parties could take a leaf out of their book.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32312687

Get in.

[Filo]

Or do we really want these who sneer at anyone that doesn't conform to the master race?

http://cambridge.tab.co.uk/2015/04/13/mental-health-conditions-wear-wristbands-says-tory-candidate-cambridge/

[RTID75]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/the-only-black-face-in-the-ukip-manifesto-is-on-the-page-about-overseas-aid-10178065.html

[IC1967]

Or do we really want these who sneer at anyone that doesn't conform to the master race?

http://cambridge.tab.co.uk/2015/04/13/mental-health-conditions-wear-wristbands-says-tory-candidate-cambridge/

No sneering and no reference to a master race in the article. I think you've gone a bit over the top.

I suggest you read the article again and try to put the comment she made into context. She was only trying to come up with a solution that would help mentally ill people deal with our legal system better.

[IC1967]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/the-only-black-face-in-the-ukip-manifesto-is-on-the-page-about-overseas-aid-10178065.html

So what. As a party that is not racist or politically correct we couldn't care less whether every ethnicity is represented in the document.

The policies in the document are what counts. Not comparing the ethnicities of who is pictured in it.

You give a perfect example of political correctness gone mad. To the likes of you it is more important to get the right ethnic mix of people pictured rather than dealing with the big issues of the general election. People tasked with drawing up a manifesto should not have the additional pressure of having to make sure they have observed all the ludicrous rules of political correctness.

I suggest you and your kind watch the manifesto launch. You will find that there were many ethnicities in the crowd and they were the ones that were the most vociferous in heckling the politically correct reporter.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32321623

[IC1967]

Yet another poll showing the Tories in the lead.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/17/uk-britain-election-poll-survation-idUKKBN0N829T20150417

Get in.

[Hounslowrover]

And just below in 'More from Reuters' two other polls are mentioned, one a day older and the other the same day as the survation poll. One has Labour ahead, the other is tied!!

Get in.

[IC1967]

Latest Opinium poll has Tories on 36% and Labour only on 32%.

Get in.

[Hounslowrover]

Latest YouGov in Sunday Times has Labour 3 points ahead.

Get in.

[Filo]

Latest Opinium poll has Tories on 36% and Labour only on 32%.

Get in.

Must be a rouge poll

[wilts rover]

YouGov/Sun (15/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ipsos MORI/Standard (15/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%
Panelbase (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (16/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Populus (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (18/4)- CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

Bit of a pattern there, can anyone tell me what it is (dont worry I have removed any polls that contradict what I have to say in an attempt to bias my 'facts')

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

Yes, yes, yes, but as right-wing psephological geniuses have been saying, the overwhelmingly good economic news will result in a swing to the Tories.

Sometime.

Eventually.

Maybe.

[BillyStubbsTears]

On which topic, last week the longest odds you could get on Cameron being PM after the election were 8/13. Miliband was 7/4.

Look at the numbers today after another week of the polls not moving to the Tories despite everything they chuck at it.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Both on Evens.

[IC1967]

Latest Populous poll has Labour on 34% and Tories on 32%.

Get in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Mick's volte face has been the most entertaining thing about the entire campaign so far. 

[IC1967]

Mick's volte face has been the most entertaining thing about the entire campaign so far. 

Excuse me. No volte face. I form my opinions on current and past information. I am prepared to change my mind when a situation changes. If only you lefties would take on-board the overwhelming destruction job I've done on Labour. Unfortunately you are very closed minded. I guarantee that many of the previously undecided voters have taken on-board what I've said. I'd be amazed if any of them would now vote Labour.

All I would say to them now is get behind Labour where they have a chance of winning. My advice now is to play the long game. Let's hope they form the next minority government held to ransom by the SNP. This arrangement would only last for 2 years at the most. They'd have to take some tough decisions and would find their support would fall off a cliff.

The election after this one is the key election. Labour would be finished (see what's happened in Scotland for how quick things can change). The Tories and UKIP could then get on with pushing through a hard right agenda.

Get in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The gift that keeps on giving.

[IC1967]

Hahaha! You lefties do make me laugh.

[BillyStubbsTears]

On which topic, last week the longest odds you could get on Cameron being PM after the election were 8/13. Miliband was 7/4.

Look at the numbers today after another week of the polls not moving to the Tories despite everything they chuck at it.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Both on Evens.

Longest odds now:

Miliband 5/6
Cameron 5/4.

That's quite some turn round in a week for Milband, from 7/4 to 5/6.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fortunately, I had £1000 on Miliband at 7/4. I've now laid that off by having £1200 on Cameron at 5/4. Whoever is PM in 17 days, I end up £500 up.

Get in.

[Filo]

Fortunately, I had £1000 on Miliband at 7/4. I've now laid that off by having £1200 on Cameron at 5/4. Whoever is PM in 17 days, I end up £500 up.

Get in.

Betting slips?

Or are they locked up in the dame place as Micks?

[IC1967]

Fortunately, I had £1000 on Miliband at 7/4. I've now laid that off by having £1200 on Cameron at 5/4. Whoever is PM in 17 days, I end up £500 up.

Get in.

Betting slips?

Or are they locked up in the dame place as Micks?

Unlike you, I'm prepared to take the man at his word.

[IC1967]

Bad news. Yougov have got the Tories at 35% and Labour down on 34%. It gets worse. It seems the Tory policy of slagging off a Labour/SNP 'coalition' is working and attracting more support for the Tories. The media is dominated with this story and not on Labour's big push on the NHS this week.

Let's hope Labour can turn it around.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

[BillyStubbsTears]

On which topic, last week the longest odds you could get on Cameron being PM after the election were 8/13. Miliband was 7/4.

Look at the numbers today after another week of the polls not moving to the Tories despite everything they chuck at it.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Both on Evens.

Longest odds now:

Miliband 5/6
Cameron 5/4.

That's quite some turn round in a week for Milband, from 7/4 to 5/6.

Now:

Miliband 8/11
Cameron 11/8
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Well, well, well.

[IC1967]

On which topic, last week the longest odds you could get on Cameron being PM after the election were 8/13. Miliband was 7/4.

Look at the numbers today after another week of the polls not moving to the Tories despite everything they chuck at it.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Both on Evens.

Longest odds now:

Miliband 5/6
Cameron 5/4.

That's quite some turn round in a week for Milband, from 7/4 to 5/6.

Now:

Miliband 8/11
Cameron 11/8
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Well, well, well.

Get in.

[The Red Baron]

I have to say that the lack of overall movement in the polls points in one direction. Basically the same one before a shot was fired in the campaign. There will be a hung parliament and Labour will be the largest party.

I have to say though that unless the eventual arithmetic allows for a deal between Labour and the Lib Dems it is unlikely to end well. The Nationalists will, I think, provide Labour with dangerous allies.

As for the Tories, I think they have run a very poor campaign. You might argue that they have some unpromising material to work with in policy terms. However I think the big question that will be asked in the inevitable inquest is why they failed to cut some sort of deal with UKIP.

[wilts rover]

As we have said previously TRB the main point of interest is how many of their marginal seats can the Lib Dems hang on to? Bath, Cheltenham, Chippenham, Wells etc. Will they still be the protest vote party? There is talk of the Greens running them close in Bristol West and thats an 11000 majority. Will there be enough disafection and stay-aways to let the Tories in - or will UKIP split their vote?