Coronavirus

[sha66y]

I don't disagree with you about the Kitsons who partied in Downing St. Trouble is, you are taking their lead.

Do you deliberately miss the point on purpose???

They were partying not because they were “ kitsons” as you say……they were partying because they are privy to real figures and data, and based upon that , they realised there is no real problem with any of these strains unless you are already very very ill with a multitude of other ailments……

We, the populace are being deceived for reasons beyond our understanding…

IF THERE WAS A REAL DANGER,…WE WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO CONGREGATE ………..ANY-FCUKIN-WHERE,!!!

[SydneyRover]

I don't disagree with you about the Kitsons who partied in Downing St. Trouble is, you are taking their lead.

Do you deliberately miss the point on purpose???

They were partying not because they were “ kitsons” as you say……they were partying because they are privy to real figures and data, and based upon that , they realised there is no real problem with any of these strains unless you are already very very ill with a multitude of other ailments……

We, the populace are being deceived for reasons beyond our understanding…

IF THERE WAS A REAL DANGER,…WE WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO CONGREGATE ………..ANY-FCUKIN-WHERE,!!!

this should read 'I'

[sha66y]

Pretty unambiguous.

BBC ,….mmmmmmmmmmmmm who’d a thought it would be scary graph time…

Show enough people a scary graph, fill it out with scary stats and all of a sudden you have a docile society scared shitless to make their own mind up….constantly listening to the radio reports and watching the “ idiots lantern”  for the next serving of fear inducing bollox!

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I've not really looked in any depth at the covid stats for some time, until today just to see what the surge in cases is all about.

A week ago on 7 Dec 997,000 folk tested negative for Covid. 94% of those tested.

Today, 1, 241,000 tested negative. Also 94% of those tested.

Seems to be 0.007% of the population of 68 million testing positive.

On 7 Dec 929 folk were either hospitalised or found to be positive when admitted to hospital for something else, which is 0.001% of the population.

Of course, there are no published figures for the numbers of those who are deemed to have recovered on a daily basis. We are only given the 'people in hospital' figures which have been dropping but looks likely to rise again, but not the number of folk discharged on a daily basis.

Anyway, in context, if you take Rovers attendance on 5697 last week, then the chances are that 4 fans may be infected with 0.05 of them may unfortunately go on to require hospital treatment. Of course, they may pass it on but statistically by the next match, they will have recovered etc, etc.but it could statistcally take 4 matches of the same attendance before the unfortunate 1 person requires hospital treatment.

Thank goodness for the jabs and thank goodness we have to wear masks...now and again!!

Of course it isn't that simple. Yes, be sensible but if someone said to you before covid that if you went to Rovers on a cold December day, that 4 folk might catch a respiratory disease which could be no worse than cold symptoms, your response would be????

Might be helpful if they told us what is the running percentage of the population that are infected or something that gives the positive side rather than the bleaker picture. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

DBR.

The ONS release figures every week on how many people in the country are currently infected. These are estimates based on a huge survey and are the best we have.

The latest figures are here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/10december2021

They estimate 1 in 60 in England had it at the start of the month. But that's already 2 weeks out of date. daily cases have gone up about a third since then, so the figure today is more likely to be about 1 in 40. And rising very quickly.

So in fact, the number of infected people in a 6000 Rovers crowd is likely to be about 150. The total number currently infected per day at the moment is estimated to be about 200,000 or about 1 in 350. So on any given day, you'd expect about 17 of that crowd to catch a dose.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just looking at the positive case numbers.

Up until the start of the month, Dekta cases had bobbed around 45,000 for weeks. Since then, they've shot up to a weekly average of about 57,000. It's probably fair to assume that 12,000 excess are Omicron. That ties in with what was reported a day or two ago, that 20%  of current cases are Omicron.

If Omicron cases are doubling every 2 days, that's 7-8 doublings this month, or an increase of ~150-250. In other words, there were probably only a few dozen Omicron positive tests back at the start of the month.


Here's the kicker. If they carry on doubling every 2 days, by this time next week, there will be maybe 100,000 Omicron positive tests per day. And by Xmas Day, maybe 350,000. That is why serious scientists are so concerned. Like I said earlier, if we do see numbers like that, all the previous outbreaks will be lost as a little blip at the bottom of the graph.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I knew you wouldn't let us down BST.

Just looked to see the latest from South Africa where it appears the Omicron variant has now virtually displaced

 the Delta variant but with a high growth rate. However, it looks like they may have now reached their peak, and if ours follows suit then out peak will come early/mid January.

They are also reporting somewhere between 30% & 70% less likely to cause hospitalisation than Delta, depending on the  studies that have published to date.

I certainly don't think it cause for panic or folk to be scared to go out. Just be sensible, follow the guidance where possible.

[Nudga]

That was bloody quick.


https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B09MYL7R13/ref=cm_sw_r_apan_glt_fabc_B86W79037Q5PG8K3EEKQ

[ravenrover]

China has only ever had one wave of infections, which is really strange considering covid origins

Sorry Filo if you believe that then the moon is made of cheese

[River Don]

So I see, whilst the UK hospitality industry is in collapse, the chancellor  is in California talking about Internet's.

Interestingly enough, it doesn't appear to be what's her name, the shadow chancellor calling him out on this but Wes Streeting who seems to be much more protective and becoming quite high profile now

[normal rules]

Pretty unambiguous.

BBC ,….mmmmmmmmmmmmm who’d a thought it would be scary graph time…

Show enough people a scary graph, fill it out with scary stats and all of a sudden you have a docile society scared shitless to make their own mind up….constantly listening to the radio reports and watching the “ idiots lantern”  for the next serving of fear inducing bollox!

If you think the bbc have anything to do with that graph other than transmit signals over the tv of those that present it,  then You should be very worried, about yourself.
The graph is compiled by Uk health security agency, who advise COBR.
But don’t take my word for it , go and ask June Slater or some other cockwomble who profess to be expert virologists.

[Axholme Lion]

The BBC revel in the doom and gloom aspect of things. They're assisting with the scaring of the population at large.

[normal rules]

The BBC revel in the doom and gloom aspect of things. They're assisting with the scaring of the population at large.

Doesn’t every media outlet?
You never hear good news at 10 pm every night do you?
They have a duty to report and do their coverage though I suppose.
I do agree though. They do always seem to focus on the negatives, covid aside, with the wicked witch Kuennsberrg usually not far from stirring her cauldron.
I really don’t like that woman. She reminds me of Kate Aide from years gone by. Another despicable reporter who thought she was more important than she actually was.

[bpoolrover]

So I see, whilst the UK hospitality industry is in collapse, the chancellor  is in California talking about Internet's.

Interestingly enough, it doesn't appear to be what's her name, the shadow chancellor calling him out on this but Wes Streeting who seems to be much more protective and becoming quite high profile now

not being funny mate but you have wanted hospitality not to have opened for months you were saying that we should delay and delay so you can't really have a pop at that

[normal rules]

If you think hospitality in uk has got it bad, spare a thought for the french ( not too much though) and those who usually go skiing there in winter.
From Saturday, anyone who had a ski trip booked to France, (this is now peak season usually tens  of thousands make this trip) will be prohibited from travelling.
Thats massive for the french ski tourism industry.
The conditions to enter from Sat are very very restrictive, unless you are a homeowner there.

[Metalmicky]

Is Thursday ColinDouglasHandshake's day off..... or has he caught something...?

[Bentley Bullet]

If you think hospitality in uk has got it bad, spare a thought for the french ( not too much though) and those who usually go skiing there in winter.
From Saturday, anyone who had a ski trip booked to France, (this is now peak season usually tens  of thousands make this trip) will be prohibited from travelling.
Thats massive for the french ski tourism industry.
The conditions to enter from Sat are very very restrictive, unless you are a homeowner there.

Some people suspect it is Macron's anti-British stance that has led him down that slippery slope.   

[podrover73]

The BBC revel in the doom and gloom aspect of things. They're assisting with the scaring of the population at large.

Doesn’t every media outlet?
You never hear good news at 10 pm every night do you?
They have a duty to report and do their coverage though I suppose.
I do agree though. They do always seem to focus on the negatives, covid aside, with the wicked witch Kuennsberrg usually not far from stirring her cauldron.
I really don’t like that woman. She reminds me of Kate Aide from years gone by. Another despicable reporter who thought she was more important than she actually was.

Plus the other BBC doom merchant Hugh Grim

[normal rules]

Nothing would surprise me with the french.
It will be interesting to see how this is policed.
I’ve skiied in France. Flew into Geneva, as most do, and then a quick hop down the motorway across the border into France, which is always very, very busy. Add covid pass checks into this mix and the area around Geneva will very quickly become a complete no go.

[normal rules]

Today’s update . Over 88000 cases in last 24 hrs. 148 deaths.
I think it will be this time next week we will see if omicRon has an affect on death rates.  It would have been here about two weeks by then.
Xmas week. Ffs.
This thing could not have timed itself any worse could it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

One for the deniers to ponder.

Before we had vaccines, there were some pretty constant numbers through the epidemic.

For every 1000 people who tested  positive, there were about 70 hospitalisations a couple of weeks later, and about 20 deaths 3 weeks later.

We are now seeing what happens when an outbreak isn't controlled. We're already up to 88,000 reported positive cases per day. That's going to crash through 100,000 in the next day or two and probably up through 200,000 next week.

This is what WOULD have happened if we hadn't had the lockdowns in March 2020 and January 2021. Without intervention, the virus doesn't stop spreading until it can't find anyone else to infect. Do some simple sums and see how many people would have needed hospital treatment if we'd had a wave like this before we had vaccines, and how many people would have died. Then write those numbers on a post-it note and stick it on your forehead. And take it down and look at it every time you get the urge to say "lockdowns don't work".

[River Don]

So I see, whilst the UK hospitality industry is in collapse, the chancellor  is in California talking about Internet's.

Interestingly enough, it doesn't appear to be what's her name, the shadow chancellor calling him out on this but Wes Streeting who seems to be much more protective and becoming quite high profile now

not being funny mate but you have wanted hospitality not to have opened for months you were saying that we should delay and delay so you can't really have a pop at that

Not at all, I think they should be restricting hospitality now. People not socialising now is perfectly reasonable.

But the chancellor so far is not offering support to the sector this time. If he doesn't we can expect a lot of failures in the new year.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Govt line on hospitality is appalling.

One one hand, we're not banning people going out.

On the other hand we suggest people think long and hard about whether they should go out.

But we're not going to offer any support to the businesses that are going to be hammered by this.

Total and utter lack of leadership in the depths of a crisis.

[Filo]

The Govt line on hospitality is appalling.

One one hand, we're not banning people going out.

On the other hand we suggest people think long and hard about whether they should go out.

But we're not going to offer any support to the businesses that are going to be hammered by this.

Total and utter lack of leadership in the depths of a crisis.

Like I said earlier, if Christmas wasn’t next week we would have harsher restrictions now, Johnsons ego is getting in the way, hopefully todays by election will get rid of him

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The interesting thing on the cases is supposedly 22000+ of them were in London.  If that's true, hospitals in London will tell the story in next few weeks.

[River Don]

Unless they are quietly taking the view that this change is going to be structural and if these businesses can't adapt to this environment... Better let them go to the wall.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD. But how do you adapt to losing your market on a unpredictable basis?

[River Don]

Very difficult, if not near impossible.

I could only imagine it working with s venue that has outdoor spaces and is profitable in summer and offers really good takeaway and delivery services.

[River Don]

Chris Whitty suggesting it'll be mid 2023 before there is a new comprehensive jab for Omicron. Other scientists predicting another 5+ years of COVID disruption.

If those forecasts are anywhere near right, you could see how they might start thinking keeping these businesses alive is a lost cause.

[Nudga]

Chris Whitty suggesting it'll be mid 2023 before there is a new comprehensive jab for Omicron. Other scientists predicting another 5+ years of COVID disruption.

If those forecasts are anywhere near right, you could see how they might start thinking keeping these businesses alive is a lost cause.

You will own nothing, but you will be happy.

Work Economic Forum.