50 points

[adamtherover]

No BST,  that makes no sense, why would you only want the bottom 3 to get as least as possible, making the 4th bottom potentially get more, to make the safe 5th from bottom harder to get..
You want all 4 relegation places to get as small a tally as possible...

[Dutch Uncle]

No BST,  that makes no sense, why would you only want the bottom 3 to get as least as possible, making the 4th bottom potentially get more, to make the safe 5th from bottom harder to get..
You want all 4 relegation places to get as small a tally as possible...

Adam, I think you may understandably be mixing up this mathematical puzzle/theoretical exercise to construct the highest possible points needed to be better then 4th bottom (i.e. 4th bottom as high as possible), and the everyday looking at the table trying to keep the 4th bottom the lowest possible points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

So Rigo, that raises the question of what ACTUALLY is the least number of points a side can get and stay up.

I think it’s 8.

Assume bottom 5 lose every match against every one of the top 19. Draw all their matches against each other. That means all the bottom 5 have 8 points. Presumably the one with the highest goal difference would stay up. I don’t THINK it’s possible to actually get fewer points than this and stay up.

[Dutch Uncle]

For what it is worth as a comparison, in the 36 seasons since 3 points per win in this League, 4th bottom has ranged between 43 and 54 points (average 48.5), and 5th bottom has ranged between 45 and 54 (average 50.6). Every season had 46 games.

So 54 is the highest to be relegated and 45 the lowest to survive.

Of course everything above does not allow for any points deductions.

[drfchound]

For what it is worth as a comparison, in the 36 seasons since 3 points per win in this League, 4th bottom has ranged between 43 and 54 points (average 48.5), and 5th bottom has ranged between 45 and 54 (average 50.6). Every season had 46 games.

So 54 is the highest to be relegated and 45 the lowest to survive.

Of course everything above does not allow for any points deductions.

Good point Dutch, now that throws a whole new light on this.

[Silkscarf]

But the 5th bottom team could have survived with the same points total as 4th bottom but a better goal difference. Or even the same goal difference but better goals scored etc.

[ravenrover]

Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan

Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done"   that's the kicker.   So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe .  When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc..  when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed.   Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready..   everyone needs to relax....

I think what is meant is that there is more work to be done by a combination of our own results and opponents of relegation threatened teams helping to bridge that 11 point mathematical gap with a combination of our points won and other teams’ points lost. It may be all 11 can come from the latter.

Correct DU until we are mathematically safe there is work to be done

[adamtherover]

#mindblown..    theoretically  tho,  1 pt is enough.. lol

[andysly]

I wish Rachel Riley was doing this, at least there’d be summats to look at while listening to the tedium 😂

[adamtherover]

Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan

Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done"   that's the kicker.   So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe .  When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc..  when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed.   Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready..   everyone needs to relax....

I think what is meant is that there is more work to be done by a combination of our own results and opponents of relegation threatened teams helping to bridge that 11 point mathematical gap with a combination of our points won and other teams’ points lost. It may be all 11 can come from the latter.

Correct DU until we are mathematically safe there is work to be done

So are you saying that a team currently sitting on 60 pts should be sweating,  cos the team 4th from bottom can achieve 61pts?  Have they got work to do. 

Last season folks were saying we needed 10 more pts than we currently ended up with to guaranteed promotion when there was about 7 games left. I was a lone voice in the dark saying we needed about 3 more points in early April, as the chasing pack simply.would not overtake us based in their current showing.  I was proved correct..  the 4th placed team gained points at the same points they had over the previous 40 games. Sod the "we need 18 points as they have 6 games left" rubbish.  When they have only been only gaining points at 1.7 pts per game etc..    if bookies.use this system to work out.odds, why shouldn't we.   ? 

Rochdale  are on a run, no one else is, so there is no evidence to  show that the bottom 4 or 5 will no gather more than 47 pts...

Oh.. and one thing that no one is mentioning is that we need to lose.every game left for the chasing pack to catch us. Let's forget that we have lost  once at home since november.  We should.really be looking up and thinking how high  can we finish..

[Dutch Uncle]

Adam

No-one is saying DRFC need 60 or 61 points to avoid relegation in practice.

As a theoretical mathematical exercise, the worst case is that as of today 61 points would be needed, covering all mathematical cases (including infinitesimally likely ones). As we count down there will (hopefully) come a day when we say 'now we can no longer be relegated'. With any luck that might be for example with 3 matches left to play and we are 9 or more points clear. In the final table it may be that it transpired that all along we actually needed 52 or 54 or maybe our current 50 points to survive. But we don't know that yet.

This is just a count down to the mathematical certainty of when (hopefully) relegation is avoided.

I fully agree with your last sentence - I am optimistically hoping we might sneak 10th place, but 12-14th would be OK.

[BillyStubbsTears]

My prediction that a side could stay up on 46 points is looking dodgy.

[adamtherover]

My prediction that a side could stay up on 46 points is looking dodgy.

you wont be far off bst,  4th from bottom won't better 47 pts..

[andysly]

We are safe as houses. Never even looked to be relegation threatened. 48/49 points is about most 21st will achieve.

[Copps is Magic]

My prediction that a side could stay up on 46 points is looking dodgy.

you wont be far off bst,  4th from bottom won't better 47 pts..

Intuition would tell you its going to be higher than 46 points, as bst says. All that needs to happen is Oldham need 2 points from 7 games, Wimbledon 3 points from 6 games, and Rochdale 4 points from 7 games. In other words, beyond terrible form for all 3 teams and, without looking, I imagine some play each other.

edit: and Oldham's, Wimbledon's, Rochdale's and MK Dons' form has all picked up lately.

If you extend each team's 8 game form for the rest of the season you get a table like this, and 51 points needed to stay up.

9th Scunthorpe 65
10th Doncaster 61
11th Britstol Rover 61
12th Fleetwood 60
13th Southend 59
14th Bradford 57
15th Blackpool 57
16th Gillingham 55
17th Oldham 55
18th Rochdale 53
19th Oxford 52
20th Walsall 52
-------------
21st Wimbledon 50
22nd Mk Dons 49
23rd Northampton 43
24th Bury 33

[BillyStubbsTears]

Copps

Aye. That’s more or less the method I’ve used in recent seasons and it’s consustently predicted similar final points tallies for each position from January onwards.

It’s certainly not worked this season. Back in Feb, it was predicting that the 3rd and 4th bottom sides would get 45/46 points. For once, the form of several sides in the bottom 6-7 has improved at the same time and that’s screwed up that predictor. In previous seasons, for each side that improved, another one dipped, so the points prediction for each final position remained roughly constant.

I still don’t think the 4th bottom will get 50 points. There are some tough run ins for the bottom sides and I think it might be 48-49. Rochdale will do very well to continue their current form. They’ve had a hellishly busy schedule and by the end of this month they’ll have played 20 matches in 74 days. There’ll be some heavy legs in tha squad. 

[RedJ]

What we need is a good graph.

[drfchound]

Steffie always looked good.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I don't really care what the mathematics are, the team should be still firing on all cylinders and showing they have the heart and desire to finish this season on the highest total possible in order to show the previous capitulations are a thing of the past.

[drfchound]

I don't really care what the mathematics are, the team should be still firing on all cylinders and showing they have the heart and desire to finish this season on the highest total possible in order to show the previous capitulations are a thing of the past.

It would be nice to see that for a change.
Also a good finish to the season and say, a tenth place finish, would give floating fans an incentive to buy tickets for next season.

[les@donr]

We are safe according to the BBC.

[dknward2]

I believe we are too but until it’s mathematically so I still wouldn’t rest we need to push all the way get high as we can. Makes us a better prospect for any future transfers.

If we can finish say 8th within 8-10 points of the playoffs would mean we can say to any potential signings that we are pushing for playoffs, if we finish any lower than say 16th then that would be a difficult sell against other clubs higher in the league for the same players

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Got to keep going until the fat lady says its over. Keep the fans turning out with a glimmer of hope and to wet their appetite for next season.

In addition, we might even get a cameo from Danny Andrew to show what we could have had on that left side if it weren't for the roll of a dice.

[steve@dcfd]

It’s still mathematically possible to get into playoffs let’s stop thinking relegation. This squad of players need to get results in every game we got left. Performance is good but results are better.