50 points

[drfchound]

It is perhaps worth gently reminding ourselves that after today, we have won one game in the last twelve.

CBCB

Yeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that.

Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?

Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games outbif 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI in
McCullough
Kiwomya
Butler
Baudry
Andrew

plus assorted others?

Both posts very relevant and true.

[Chris Black come back]

Also since the turn of the year we have ten points out of eleven league games - less than a point a game, which is relegation form.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Grand

So we’ve had three periods this season.

First 8 games. Finding our feet. Poor form. 6 points. Relegation form.

Next 17 games. Hitting our stride. Fixtures on balance a bit easier than average. 27 points. Play-off form.

Last 11 games. Very tough run of matches. (8/11 against sides in the top half 5/11 games away matches against sides in the top half). String of disruptive injuries. Poor return. 10 points. Relegation form.

Thing is, that all adds up to 43 points from 36 games which is mid-table form. Teams go through spells of good and bad form over a season.

Ten years ago this very week we were just finishing a run of 40 points from 16 games and about to dive into a season-ending collapse of 12 points from the final 10 games. That final ten games didn’t make the 07/08 squad crap or O’Driscoll a bad manager. But if you only focussed on that spell and the distinctly average first 20 games of the season, whilst ignoring the purple patch in the middle, you could convince yourself that he was shite.

Given that the injury crisis seems to be settling and that we have a relatively less tough than average run to the end of the season, I expect us to finish 13th or 14th and we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.

[Chris Black come back]

I don't think we will go down this season but equally it is a little optimistic to think we will finish 13th or 14th this season.

If you look at the last five seasons in League One, the lowest points total to finish 14th was 57 points (when Crawley finished 14 in 2013/14).

To even match that lowest total and finish 14th, we would have to get another 14 points from the remaining 10 games. That looks somewhat ambitious, although not impossible.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fair point. But then the joint 14th best sides in the division at the moment (Oxford & Blackpool) are currently on target for 55.2 points, taking their season average. We’re the 16th best and we’re on target for 54.9.

On paper we have a significantly easier run in than either of those sides.

Plus, I’m an optimist. It gets me through the day.

[dickos1]

I don't think we will go down this season but equally it is a little optimistic to think we will finish 13th or 14th this season.

If you look at the last five seasons in League One, the lowest points total to finish 14th was 57 points (when Crawley finished 14 in 2013/14).

To even match that lowest total and finish 14th, we would have to get another 14 points from the remaining 10 games. That looks somewhat ambitious, although not impossible.

We're one point off 14th with a game in hand so not really sure that to think we may finish there is a little optimistic

[Chris Black come back]

Comrade. The season doesn’t finish for two months yet.

[roverstillidie91]

My concern is we are not pulling away from the relegation zone at one given time it ended up being 7 points and now it's 5. Say we draw our next game and others win we could then trickle down for even 2 or 3 points away I think we just need to get a run of game together where we win a few and pull a bit of distance away from the danger zone.

Is there any great deal of difference or incentive in monetary terms to finish for example 12th from where we are now?

[Chris Black come back]

Fair point. But then the joint 14th best sides in the division at the moment (Oxford & Blackpool) are currently on target for 55.2 points, taking their season average. We’re the 16th best and we’re on target for 54.9.

On paper we have a significantly easier run in than either of those sides.

Plus, I’m an optimist. It gets me through the day.

Equally fair points. However, even the 55 points would mean we have to accrue points faster than we have done over the last 11 league games and frankly, we have to win a few games - something we have done only once over the last 12 games.

We are digging in any getting good draws but we are still averaging less than a point a game at the most crucial time of the season.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CBCB

Then we should count ourselves lucky that we don’t have a large number of top 10 sides to play and that it looks like our injury crisis is passing. Since those two things are the dominating issues relating to our recent form. And we should also think ourselves lucky that none of the other sides around us are in particularly scintillating form.

[Chris Black come back]

Three of our last four defeats have been to teams outside the top 10 though - in fact we have done half decent on this run against the better placed sides.

[dickos1]

Comrade. The season doesn’t finish for two months yet.

Correct
It's not optimistic though is it.
We've been where we are now all season

[Dutch Uncle]

Three of our last four defeats have been to teams outside the top 10 though - in fact we have done half decent on this run against the better placed sides.

Not quite true. Oxford were 8th when we lost to them.

IMHO I think this season opponents' current form may well be more important for us than their league position. We can be glad we don't have to play Rochdale again, and our next opponents Bradford are top ten but falling like a stone. We are probably more likely to beat Oxford than Bury at the momemt.

Everyone is understandably mesmerised by our disastrous run 2 seasons ago. It is worth noting how monstrously bad it was - in the league we went 16 without a win, and only 4 draws in that time. At one point we went through a sequence of 11 defeats and one draw in twelve games.

Our 'bad run' at the moment consists of 1 win, 7 draws and 3 defeats in 11 matches. 7 of those 11 have been away, 5 against top sides and one (Southend) against a side with a good home record. Our only home defeat was when we had only one centre back and he went off injured after 20 minutes (when we were actually leading). Our only other home matches have been the win against Fleetwood, the draw against in form Plymouth when the referee was a tad unhelpful in a Mr Russell kind of way, and an admittedly bad performance against Charlton when we were fortunate to get a point.

This is very very different from 2 years ago. This team is much better, has much better spirit, and with simply a fair rub of the green with referees and injuries in the last 10 games we should have no problems in doing more than survive.

I think recent previous seasons' experiences have made us overly fearful. A win against Bradford would make everything seem a bit different.

Edit: Especially if Marquis can avoid a booking.

[Chris Black come back]

Dutch. The last four defeats do not include Oxford. I know one of these was in’t cup but I am talking about the current run we are on, since turn of year.

[Dutch Uncle]

Dutch. The last four defeats do not include Oxford. I know one of these was in’t cup but I am talking about the current run we are on, since turn of year.

OK CBCB. I was counting league matches only. However our cup defeat to in form Rochdale lends extra weight to my point about playing in-form sides being more significant than highly placed ones. It is still (for now) miles away from the situation two years ago.

[Chris Black come back]

Am certainly with you on that Dutch. I do not think we will go down this season.

[Dutch Uncle]

Am certainly with you on that Dutch. I do not think we will go down this season.

By the way, with a monniker like yours I should have known you would know all about away matches at Oxford.........

[RoversAlias]

Excellent post that Dutch, a very sensible look at our recent fortunes.

[DonnyOsmond]

Starts with yesterdays game. We've got one of the easiest run ins left.

[dknward2]

Us and Oldham look to have a good run in hope it pans out that way it a couple of wins and a few defeats for the bottom 4 will make us safe

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Statistics and form mean nothing. The only predictable thing about the remaining results for ourselves and the rest of the league is their unpredictability. We are down until results tell us otherwise.

We have managed to snatch disaster from the Jaws of safety all too often with the exception of Brentford. I don't know how DF and the players are prepared for this run-in, but I hope it's a different approach to what's been applied before.

Do we have any evidence to suggest this crop of players are mentally tough enough and resilient? Absolutely not.

We are going to need to call upon that other ingredient. Luck.

[Donnywolf]

See How Many Points Comp just started - please enter before Bradford Game

[drfchound]

Starting to look as though Rochdale might not be getting out of the mire.
A 2-0 loss tonight leaves them six points adrift of fifth bottom but they do still have a game in hand.
We slip back to six points clear of the bottom four after Northampton’s draw with the Shrews but we have a game in hand over them.

[IDM]

seven teams have to finish the season better than us, for us to go down..  Some a little better, some a lot better..

[drfchound]

seven teams have to finish the season better than us, for us to go down..  Some a little better, some a lot better..

Yes mate I understand that.
The thing is that three years ago I came away from that 2-1 win at Leeds thinking we were safe.
This is the Rovers we are talking about and we have recent history of not finishing seasons well.
Hopefully this season we can buck the trend.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Starting to look as though Rochdale might not be getting out of the mire.
A 2-0 loss tonight leaves them six points adrift of fifth bottom but they do still have a game in hand.
We slip back to six points clear of the bottom four after Northampton’s draw with the Shrews but we have a game in hand over them.

On New Years Day we were 7 points clear and had played a match more than 4th bottom.

It’s generally held that we haven’t been in form in 2018 but we have pulled slightly away from the relegation zone.

[drfchound]

Starting to look as though Rochdale might not be getting out of the mire.
A 2-0 loss tonight leaves them six points adrift of fifth bottom but they do still have a game in hand.
We slip back to six points clear of the bottom four after Northampton’s draw with the Shrews but we have a game in hand over them.

On New Years Day we were 7 points clear and had played a match more than 4th bottom.

It’s generally held that we haven’t been in form in 2018 but we have pulled slightly away from the relegation zone.

To be fair, we have only lost three of our last sixteen league games.
That in itself is pretty good.
We just haven’t won enough.
Draws have been the main results.
In reality though BST, if we were seven points clear of the bottom four on NY day then we have slipped a point closer today.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

No, that’s not a sensible way to look at it. We’d played a game more than the 4th bottom then. Now we have a game in hand. We’re clearly in a better position now than we were then.

Plus, back then the 4th bottom side had 21 games left to catch up 7 points in us. Now the 4th bottom has 8 games left to catch up 6 points.

[Filo]

If we assume 50 pts is the target, we need 0.44 pts per game to reach that target, the teams below us need the followin

Blackpool 0.44 ppg
Oxford.    0.50 ppg
Walsall.    0.66 ppg
Fleetwood 0.88 ppg
Wimbledon 0.88 ppg
Oldham.    1.00 ppg
Northampton 1.25 ppg
Mk Dons.   1.33 ppg
Rochdale.   1.45 ppg
Bury.         2.22 ppg


I think looking at that, we're almost safe now

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

I said a while ago that a team could get 46 points and stay up this season. Not sure I totally believe that now but I still think 50 will not be needed.